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California's 21st Congressional District elections, 2012
2014 →
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November 6, 2012 |
June 5, 2012 |
David Valadao  |
Devin Nunes |
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The 21st Congressional District of California held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.
David Valadao (R) won the election.[1]
| Candidate Filing Deadline | Primary Election | General Election |
|---|---|---|
Primary: California has a top-two primary system, in which the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, go on to the general election.
Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by May 21. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 22.[2]
- See also: California elections, 2012
Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent was Devin Nunes (R), who was first elected in 2002.
According to a Cook Political Report analysis, the 21st District was one of 13 congressional districts in California that was at least somewhat competitive in 2012. The analysis rated it as Leans Republican.[3]
This was the first election which used new district maps based on 2010 Census data. California's 21st Congressional District is located in the south-central portion of the state and includes Kings County and parts of Fresno, Tulare, and Kern counties.[4]
Blanket primary
This was the first election year in which California's Top Two Candidates Open Primary Act was in effect. Because of this, all candidates for a seat competed in one blanket primary. The two candidates who received the most votes then advanced to the general election on November 6.
The proposition's intent was to encourage primary competition, which backers of the act said would lead to more moderate legislators being elected. The primary results did reflect an increase in competition, with California's percentage of contested primaries being much higher than the nationwide average.[5]
However, the increase in competition also led to an increase in campaign spending, due to the fact that competition within political parties lasted for the entire year rather than ending after the primary. Raphael J. Sonenshein, executive director of the Edmund G. "Pat" Brown Institute of Public Affairs at Cal State L.A., said the following, "It's hard to argue it's a better system where the incumbent congressman has a huge war chest and nobody else has any money... At least now we can make him spend it."[5]
As a result of the blanket primary, nine congressional districts had same-party candidates battling in the November 6 general election. Of those, seven were between Democrats.[6]
There were also over a dozen same-party races in the state legislature in November.[6]
Candidates
General election candidates
June 5, 2012, primary results
- Note: The following candidate withdrew prior to the primary: Michael Rubio[9]
Election results
General election
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  David G. Valadao |
57.8% | 67,164 | |
| Democratic | John Hernandez | 42.2% | 49,119 | |
| Total Votes | 116,283 | |||
| Source: California Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election" | ||||
Race background
California's 21st was considered to be Leaning Republican according to the New York Times race ratings. Incumbent David Valadao was challenged by Democrat John Hernandez. Another Democratic challenger, Michael Rubio, dropped out of the race prior to the primary. Valadao had a fund-raising advantage in the race.[10]
Republican challenger David Valadao was included in the National Republican Congressional Committee's Young Guns program. The program highlighted challengers who represented the GOP's best chances to pick up congressional seats in the general election.[11]
Impact of redistricting
- See also: Redistricting in California
The 21st District was re-drawn after the 2010 Census. The new district is composed of the following percentages of voters of the old congressional districts.[12][13]
- 4 percent from the 19th Congressional District
- 76 percent from the 20th Congressional District
- 11 percent from the 21st Congressional District
- 9 percent from the 22nd Congressional District
Registration statistics
As of October 23, 2012, District 21 had the following partisan registration breakdown according to the California Secretary of State:
| California Congressional District 21[14] | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Congressional District | District Total | Democrats | Republicans | Other & Unaffiliated | Advantage | Party Advantage | Change in Advantage from 2010 |
| District 21 | 197,570 | 91,715 | 65,384 | 40,471 | Democratic | 40.27% | 77.79% |
| "Party advantage" is the percentage gap between the two major parties in registered voters. "Change in advantage" is the spread in difference of party advantage between 2010 and 2012 based on the congressional district number only. | |||||||
District partisanship
FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study
- See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012
In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. Partisanship figures from 2010 relating to the incumbent are unavailable for this district due to the seat being open.[15]
- 2012: 50D / 50R
- 2010: Unavailable
Cook Political Report's PVI
In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. California's 21st Congressional District has a PVI of R+3, which is the 203rd most Republican district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by Barack Obama (D), 53-47 percent over John McCain (R). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 57-43 percent over John Kerry (D).[16]
Campaign contributions
Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2012 elections season. Below are candidate reports.
John Hernandez
| John Hernandez (2012) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[17] | April 16, 2012 | $10,092.16 | $30,171.14 | $(16,818.80) | $23,444.50 | ||||
| Pre-Primary[18] | May 24, 2012 | $2,499.83 | $2,218 | $(12,571.95) | $−7,854.12 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $32,389.14 | $(29,390.75) | ||||||||
David Valadao
| David Valadao (2012) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[19] | April 13, 2012 | $386,579.34 | $162,981.92 | $(54,637.35) | $494,923.91 | ||||
| Pre-Primary[20] | May 24, 2012 | $494,923.91 | $73,765.22 | $(78,142.28) | $490,546.85 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $236,747.14 | $(132,779.63) | ||||||||
District history
| Candidate ballot access |
|---|
 |
| Find detailed information on ballot access requirements in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. |
2010
On November 2, 2010, Devin Nunes won re-election to the United States House. He won unopposed in the general election.[21]
| U.S. House, California District 21 General Election, 2010 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Republican | Devin Nunes Incumbent |
100% | 135,979 | |
| Total Votes | 135,979 | |||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in California, 2012
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2012
Footnotes
- ↑ CNN, "California Districts Race - 2012 Election Center," accessed December 1, 2012
- ↑ California Secretary of State, "Elections FAQ," accessed July 20, 2012
- ↑ The Cook Political Report, "2012 Competitive House Race Chart," accessed July 10, 2012
- ↑ California Redistricting Map, "Map" accessed September 25, 2012
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 Los Angeles Times, "Few centrists advance in California's new primary system," June 7, 2012
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 Reuters, "Democrats face Democrats in new California election system," June 6, 2012
- ↑ Bakersfield Californian "Democrat jumps into congressional race," January 23, 2012
- ↑ "Valadao says he’s running for Congress", HanfordSentinel.com, August 2, 2011
- ↑ Bakersfield Californian "Rubio won't run for U.S. Congress in 2012," December 28, 2011
- ↑ New York Times, "House Race Ratings," accessed August 7, 2012
- ↑ NRCC "Young Guns 2012"
- ↑ Moonshadow Mobile's CensusViewer, "California's congressional districts 2001-2011 comparison"
- ↑ Labels & Lists, "VoterMapping software voter counts"
- ↑ California Secretary of State, "Congressional Voter Registration Statistics," May 21, 2012
- ↑ "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in Arizona," September 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" accessed October 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "John Hernandez April Quarterly," accessed July 10, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "John Hernandez Pre-Primary," accessed July 10, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "David Valadao April Quarterly," accessed July 10, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "David Valadao Pre-Primary," accessed July 10, 2012
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
