California's 45th Congressional District election, 2020

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California's 45th Congressional District
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Top-two primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 6, 2019
Primary: March 3, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Katie Porter (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in California
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
California's 45th Congressional District
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California elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 45th Congressional District of California, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Katie Porter won election in the general election for U.S. House California District 45.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
December 6, 2019
March 3, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Katie Porter, who was first elected in 2018.

Porter and Raths were the top two finishers from among the seven candidates who ran in the March 3, 2020, top-two primary for the district. Porter was the only Democrat who ran, alongside six Republicans. She received 50.1% of the vote to Rath's 18.1%.

In February 2019, Porter was named among the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC)'s Frontline program members. DCCC Chairwoman Cheri Bustos said, "Our Majority hinges on these Members from tough seats winning reelection in 2020, and with today’s announcement we’re sending a clear message that the DCCC will stand shoulder to shoulder with them in the fight ahead."[1] The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) named Raths as an "On the Radar" candidate in its Young Guns program in August 2019.[2] On May 26, 2020, The Modesto Bee reported that he had been removed from the Young Guns website.[3]

In the 2018 general election, Porter defeated incumbent Mimi Walters (R) 52.1% to 47.9%. The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+3, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were three percentage points more Republican than the national average.

The outcome of this race affected partisan control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 117th Congress. All 435 seats in the House were up for election. At the time of the election, Democrats had a 232 to 198 majority over Republicans. The Libertarian Party had one seat. Four seats were vacant. Democrats defended 30 districts Donald Trump (R) won in 2016. Republicans defended five districts Hillary Clinton (D) won in 2016. As of the 2010 redistricting cycle, California's 45th Congressional District was located in the southern portion of the state and included part of Orange County.[4]

This race was one of 89 congressional races that were decided by 10 percent or less in 2020.

Independent For more information about the top-two primary primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, California's 45th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 54.6 53.5
Republican candidate Republican Party 43.3 46.5
Difference 11.3 7

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

California modified its absentee/mail-in and in-person voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Mail-in ballots were sent to all registered voters in the general election.
  • In-person voting: Counties were authorized to consolidate precincts and defer opening voting centers until the third day before the election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House California District 45

Incumbent Katie Porter defeated Greg Raths in the general election for U.S. House California District 45 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Katie Porter
Katie Porter (D)
 
53.5
 
221,843
Image of Greg Raths
Greg Raths (R) Candidate Connection
 
46.5
 
193,096

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 414,939
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 45

The following candidates ran in the primary for U.S. House California District 45 on March 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Katie Porter
Katie Porter (D)
 
50.8
 
112,986
✔
Image of Greg Raths
Greg Raths (R) Candidate Connection
 
17.9
 
39,942
Image of Don Sedgwick
Don Sedgwick (R) Candidate Connection
 
12.8
 
28,465
Image of Peggy Huang
Peggy Huang (R) Candidate Connection
 
11.1
 
24,780
Image of Lisa Sparks
Lisa Sparks (R)
 
4.0
 
8,861
Image of Christopher Gonzales
Christopher Gonzales (R)
 
2.4
 
5,443
Image of Rhonda Furin
Rhonda Furin (R)
 
1.0
 
2,140

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 222,617
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

There are no Pivot Counties in California. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won California with 61.7 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 31.6 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, California voted Republican 53.33 percent of the time and Democratic 43.33 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, California voted Democratic all five times. In 2016, California had 55 electoral votes, which was the most of any state. The 55 electoral votes were 10.2 percent of all 538 available electoral votes and were 20.4 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Assembly districts in California. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[5][6]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 58 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 38.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 66 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 40.3 points. Clinton won 11 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 22 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 12.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 14 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 13 points.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+3, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 3 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made California's 45th Congressional District the 211th most Republican nationally.[7]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.95. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.95 points toward that party.[8]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[9] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[10] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Katie Porter Democratic Party $16,901,194 $6,717,188 $10,267,752 As of December 31, 2020
Greg Raths Republican Party $1,412,757 $1,408,703 $1,998 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[11]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[12][13][14]

Race ratings: California's 45th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 45th Congressional District candidates in California in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in California, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
California 45th Congressional District All candidates 2,000 Fixed number $1,740.00 1% of annual salary 12/6/2019 Source

District election history

2018

See also: California's 45th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House California District 45

Katie Porter defeated incumbent Mimi Walters in the general election for U.S. House California District 45 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Katie Porter
Katie Porter (D) Candidate Connection
 
52.1
 
158,906
Image of Mimi Walters
Mimi Walters (R)
 
47.9
 
146,383

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 305,289
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 45

The following candidates ran in the primary for U.S. House California District 45 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mimi Walters
Mimi Walters (R)
 
51.7
 
86,764
✔
Image of Katie Porter
Katie Porter (D) Candidate Connection
 
20.3
 
34,078
Image of Dave Min
Dave Min (D)
 
17.8
 
29,979
Image of Brian Forde
Brian Forde (D)
 
6.0
 
10,107
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
John Graham (Independent)
 
2.3
 
3,817
Image of Kia Hamadanchy
Kia Hamadanchy (D)
 
1.9
 
3,212

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 167,957
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2016

See also: California's 45th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Mimi Walters (R) defeated Ron Varasteh (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Walters and Varasteh defeated Greg Raths (R) and Max Gouron (D) in the top-two primary on June 7, 2016.[15][16]

U.S. House, California District 45 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMimi Walters Incumbent 58.6% 182,618
     Democratic Ron Varasteh 41.4% 129,231
Total Votes 311,849
Source: California Secretary of State


U.S. House, California District 45 Primary, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMimi Walters Incumbent 40.9% 65,773
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngRon Varasteh 27.6% 44,449
     Republican Greg Raths 19.2% 30,961
     Democratic Max Gouron 12.3% 19,716
Total Votes 160,899
Source: California Secretary of State

2014

See also: California's 45th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 45th Congressional District of California held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Mimi Walters (R) defeated Drew Leavens (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, California District 45 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMimi Walters 65.1% 106,083
     Democratic Drew Leavens 34.9% 56,819
Total Votes 162,902
Source: California Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ DCCC, "Frontline," February 7, 2019
  2. ↑ NRCC, "NRCC Announces 43 “On the Radar” Candidates in First Round of Young Guns Program," August 16, 2019
  3. ↑ The Modesto Bee, "Ted Howze lost GOP leader’s 2020 endorsement. Does he have a chance in November?" May 27, 2020
  4. ↑ California Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed September 25, 2012
  5. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  6. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  7. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  8. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  9. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  10. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  11. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  12. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  13. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  14. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  15. ↑ California Secretary of State, "Certified List of Candidates for Voter-Nominated Offices June 7, 2016, Presidential Primary Election," accessed April 4, 2016
  16. ↑ The New York Times, "California Primary Results," June 7, 2016


California's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Alex Padilla (D)
Adam Schiff (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
Ami Bera (D)
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
Adam Gray (D)
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
Ro Khanna (D)
District 18
District 19
District 20
District 21
Jim Costa (D)
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
Raul Ruiz (D)
District 26
District 27
District 28
Judy Chu (D)
District 29
Luz Rivas (D)
District 30
District 31
District 32
District 33
District 34
District 35
District 36
Ted Lieu (D)
District 37
District 38
District 39
District 40
Young Kim (R)
District 41
District 42
District 43
District 44
District 45
District 46
District 47
Dave Min (D)
District 48
District 49
District 50
District 51
District 52
Democratic Party (45)
Republican Party (9)


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