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California's 46th Congressional District election, 2020 (March 3 top-two primary)
- Primary date: March 3
- Primary type: Top-two
- Registration deadline(s): Feb. 18
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: Yes
- Early voting starts: Varies locally
- Absentee/mail voting deadline(s): March 3 (postmarked); March 6 (received)
- Voter ID: No ID
- Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
A top-two primary took place on March 3, 2020, in California's 46th Congressional District to determine which two candidates would run in the district's general election on November 3, 2020.
Incumbent Lou Correa and James Waters advanced from the primary for U.S. House California District 46.
| Candidate filing deadline | Primary election | General election |
|---|---|---|
Heading into the election, the incumbent was Lou Correa (Democrat), who was first elected in 2016.
California uses a top-two primary system, in which all candidates appear on the same ballot. The top two vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, move on to the general election. In states that do not use a top-two system, all parties are usually able to put forward a candidate for the general election if they choose to.[1][2]
Unlike the top-two format used in some states (Louisiana and Georgia special elections for example), a general election between the top-two candidates in California occurs regardless of whether the top candidate received 50% of the vote in the first round of elections.
As of June 2025, California was one of five states to use a top-two primary system, or a variation of the top-two system. See here for more information.
For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.
This page focuses on California's 46th Congressional District's top-two primary. For more in-depth information on the district's general election, see the following page:
Candidates and election results
Nonpartisan primary election
Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 46
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Lou Correa (D) | 58.2 | 60,095 |
| ✔ |  | James Waters (R)  | 27.4 | 28,302 |
 | Pablo Mendiolea (D) | 9.0 | 9,257 | |
 | Ed Rushman (Independent) | 3.2 | 3,288 | |
 | Will Johnson (Independent) | 2.3 | 2,380 | |
| Total votes: 103,322 | |||
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Hilaire Shioura (Independent)
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+15, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 15 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made California's 46th Congressional District the 90th most Democratic nationally.[3]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.85. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.85 points toward that party.[4]
Campaign finance
This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[5] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[6] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lou Correa | Democratic Party | $1,208,555 | $666,547 | $1,145,701 | As of December 31, 2020 |
| Pablo Mendiolea | Democratic Party | $1,003 | $2,455 | $-23 | As of March 3, 2020 |
| James Waters | Republican Party | $12,917 | $7,048 | $5,869 | As of December 31, 2020 |
| Will Johnson | Independent | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Ed Rushman | Independent | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
|||||
General election race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[7]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[8][9][10]
| Race ratings: California's 46th Congressional District election, 2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 3, 2020 | October 27, 2020 | October 20, 2020 | October 13, 2020 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season. | |||||||||
See also
- California's 46th Congressional District election, 2020
- United States House elections in California, 2020 (March 3 top-two primaries)
- United States House Democratic Party primaries, 2020
- United States House Republican Party primaries, 2020
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2020
- U.S. House battlegrounds, 2020
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "State Primary Election Types," accessed August 13, 2024
- ↑ California Secretary of State, "Primary Elections in California," accessed August 13, 2024
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
