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California's 48th Congressional District election, 2020

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California's 48th Congressional District
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Top-two primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 6, 2019
Primary: March 3, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Harley Rouda (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in California
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Lean Democratic
Inside Elections: Lean Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
California's 48th Congressional District
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California elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 48th Congressional District of California, held elections in 2020.

Michelle Steel won election in the general election for U.S. House California District 48.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
December 6, 2019
March 3, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Harley Rouda, who was first elected in 2018.

In February 2019, Rouda was named among the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC)'s Frontline program members. DCCC Chairwoman Cheri Bustos said, "Our Majority hinges on these Members from tough seats winning reelection in 2020, and with today’s announcement we’re sending a clear message that the DCCC will stand shoulder to shoulder with them in the fight ahead."[1] The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) named Steel as an "On the Radar" candidate in its Young Guns program in August 2019 and advanced her to "Contender" status in February 2020 and to "Young Guns" status in April. House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said, "These candidates are running extraordinarily competitive, top-of-the-line campaign operations. ... Their hard work has put the majority well within our reach, and I look forward to welcoming each one of them to Congress come fall."[2][3][4]

Rouda was first elected in 2018, defeating 15-term incumbent Dana Rohrabacher (R) 53.6% to 46.4%.

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+4, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were four percentage points more Republican than the national average.

As of the 2010 redistricting cycle, California's 48th Congressional District was located in the southern portion of the state and included most of the Orange County coast.[5]

This race was one of 89 congressional races that were decided by 10 percent or less in 2020.

Independent For more information about the top-two primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, California's 48th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 49.7 48.9
Republican candidate Republican Party 48.3 51.1
Difference 1.4 2.2

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

California modified its absentee/mail-in and in-person voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Mail-in ballots were sent to all registered voters in the general election.
  • In-person voting: Counties were authorized to consolidate precincts and defer opening voting centers until the third day before the election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House California District 48

Michelle Steel defeated incumbent Harley Rouda in the general election for U.S. House California District 48 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Michelle Steel
Michelle Steel (R)
 
51.1
 
201,738
Image of Harley Rouda
Harley Rouda (D)
 
48.9
 
193,362

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 395,100
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 48

The following candidates ran in the primary for U.S. House California District 48 on March 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Harley Rouda
Harley Rouda (D)
 
46.7
 
99,659
✔
Image of Michelle Steel
Michelle Steel (R)
 
34.9
 
74,418
Image of Brian Burley
Brian Burley (R) Candidate Connection
 
12.1
 
25,884
Image of Richard Mata
Richard Mata (American Independent Party of California) Candidate Connection
 
2.7
 
5,704
Image of John Schuesler
John Schuesler (R)
 
2.3
 
4,900
Image of James Griffin
James Griffin (R) Candidate Connection
 
1.3
 
2,714

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 213,279
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

There are no Pivot Counties in California. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won California with 61.7 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 31.6 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, California voted Republican 53.33 percent of the time and Democratic 43.33 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, California voted Democratic all five times. In 2016, California had 55 electoral votes, which was the most of any state. The 55 electoral votes were 10.2 percent of all 538 available electoral votes and were 20.4 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Assembly districts in California. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[6][7]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 58 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 38.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 66 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 40.3 points. Clinton won 11 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 22 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 12.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 14 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 13 points.


District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+4, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 4 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made California's 48th Congressional District the 202nd most Republican nationally.[8]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.99. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.99 points toward that party.[9]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[10] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[11] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Harley Rouda Democratic Party $6,259,590 $6,465,174 $70,080 As of December 31, 2020
Michelle Steel Republican Party $6,428,813 $6,271,739 $157,074 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[12]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[13][14][15]

Race ratings: California's 48th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 48th Congressional District candidates in California in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in California, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
California 48th Congressional District All candidates 2,000 Fixed number $1,740.00 1% of annual salary 12/6/2019 Source

Campaign advertisements

This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.

Bluedot.png Harley Rouda

"Influence" - Rouda campaign ad, released September 14, 2020

District election history

2018

See also: California's 48th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House California District 48

Harley Rouda defeated incumbent Dana Rohrabacher in the general election for U.S. House California District 48 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Harley Rouda
Harley Rouda (D)
 
53.6
 
157,837
Image of Dana Rohrabacher
Dana Rohrabacher (R)
 
46.4
 
136,899

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 294,736
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 48

The following candidates ran in the primary for U.S. House California District 48 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Dana Rohrabacher
Dana Rohrabacher (R)
 
30.3
 
52,737
✔
Image of Harley Rouda
Harley Rouda (D)
 
17.3
 
30,099
Image of Hans Keirstead
Hans Keirstead (D)
 
17.2
 
29,974
Image of Scott Baugh
Scott Baugh (R)
 
15.8
 
27,514
Image of Omar Siddiqui
Omar Siddiqui (D)
 
5.0
 
8,658
Image of John Gabbard
John Gabbard (R) Candidate Connection
 
3.3
 
5,664
Image of Rachel Payne
Rachel Payne (D)
 
2.1
 
3,598
Image of Paul Martin
Paul Martin (R)
 
1.7
 
2,893
Image of Shastina Sandman
Shastina Sandman (R) Candidate Connection
 
1.6
 
2,762
Image of Michael Kotick
Michael Kotick (D)
 
1.5
 
2,606
Image of Laura Oatman
Laura Oatman (D)
 
1.4
 
2,412
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Deanie Schaarsmith (D)
 
0.8
 
1,433
Image of Tony Zarkades
Tony Zarkades (D)
 
0.7
 
1,281
Image of Brandon Reiser
Brandon Reiser (L) Candidate Connection
 
0.6
 
964
Image of Stelian Onufrei
Stelian Onufrei (R)
 
0.4
 
739
Image of Kevin Kensinger
Kevin Kensinger (Independent) Candidate Connection
 
0.4
 
690

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 174,024
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2016

See also: California's 48th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Dana Rohrabacher (R) defeated Suzanne Savary (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Rohrabacher and Savary defeated Robert John Banuelos (D) in the top-two primary on June 7, 2016.[16][17]

U.S. House, California District 48 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDana Rohrabacher Incumbent 58.3% 178,701
     Democratic Suzanne Savary 41.7% 127,715
Total Votes 306,416
Source: California Secretary of State


U.S. House, California District 48 Primary, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDana Rohrabacher Incumbent 56.6% 92,815
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngSuzanne Savary 28.9% 47,395
     Democratic Robert Banuelos 14.5% 23,867
Total Votes 164,077
Source: California Secretary of State

2014

See also: California's 48th Congressional District elections, 2014
U.S. House, California District 48 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDana Rohrabacher Incumbent 64.1% 112,082
     Democratic Sue Savary 35.9% 62,713
Total Votes 174,795
Source: California Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ DCCC, "Frontline," February 7, 2019
  2. ↑ NRCC, "NRCC Announces 43 “On the Radar” Candidates in First Round of Young Guns Program," August 16, 2019
  3. ↑ NRCC, "McCarthy Announces 35 Candidates in First Round of Young Gun 'Contenders,'" February 19, 2020
  4. ↑ NRCC, "McCarthy Announces Seven 'Young Guns' in Final Phase of Young Guns Program," April 14, 2020
  5. ↑ California Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed September 25, 2012
  6. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  7. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  8. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  9. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  10. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  11. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  12. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  13. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  14. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  15. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  16. ↑ California Secretary of State, "Certified List of Candidates for Voter-Nominated Offices June 7, 2016, Presidential Primary Election," accessed April 4, 2016
  17. ↑ The New York Times, "California Primary Results," June 7, 2016


California's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Alex Padilla (D)
Adam Schiff (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
Ami Bera (D)
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
Adam Gray (D)
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
Ro Khanna (D)
District 18
District 19
District 20
District 21
Jim Costa (D)
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
Raul Ruiz (D)
District 26
District 27
District 28
Judy Chu (D)
District 29
Luz Rivas (D)
District 30
District 31
District 32
District 33
District 34
District 35
District 36
Ted Lieu (D)
District 37
District 38
District 39
District 40
Young Kim (R)
District 41
District 42
District 43
District 44
District 45
District 46
District 47
Dave Min (D)
District 48
District 49
District 50
District 51
District 52
Democratic Party (45)
Republican Party (9)


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