California's 49th Congressional District election (June 5, 2018 top-two primary)
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 22
- Early voting: Oct. 8 - Nov. 5
- Absentee voting deadline: Postmark Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: Yes
- Voter ID: No
- Poll times: 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.
A top-two primary election was held for California's 49th Congressional District on June 5, 2018. The top two finishers were state Board of Equalization member Diane Harkey (R), who received 25.5 percent of the vote, and attorney Mike Levin (D), who received 17.3 percent. Harkey and Levin faced one another in the general election on November 6, 2018.
Incumbent Darrell Issa, one of seven California Republicans who represented districts won by Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016, was not running for re-election.[1][2] Issa's retirement contributed to a large field of candidates running from both sides of the aisle, including Democrat Doug Applegate, who came within 0.6 points of unseating Issa in 2016.
Christine Mai-Duc of the Los Angeles Times reported in February 2018, however, that the crowded Democratic field could end up splitting the vote and sending two Republicans to the general election.[3]
Mike Levin received 53 percent of the delegate vote at the California Democratic Party's 2018 convention, followed by Applegate with 27 percent and Sara Jacobs with 19 percent. All fell short of the 60 percent required for the party's endorsement. But those three candidates and fellow Democrat Paul Kerr each picked up the support of party leaders and notable national groups.[4]
On the Republican side, Issa and District 45 Rep. Mimi Walters (R) endorsed former state Assemblywoman Diane Harkey, while District 39 Rep. Edward Royce (R) endorsed San Diego County Supervisor Kristin Gaspar and former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) backed state Assemblyman Rocky Chavez.[5][6][7][8]
Ballotpedia compiled the following resources to help voters better understand this election:
- Overviews of each of the top candidates, including policy positions and campaign themes;
- Major polls, endorsements, campaign ads, campaign finance information, and satellite spending updates;
- A timeline of major events that occur over the course of the election.
| California voter? Here's what you need to know. | |
|---|---|
| Primary Election | June 5, 2018 |
| Primary Type | Top-two |
| Candidate Filing Deadline | March 14, 2018[9][10] |
| Registration Deadline | May 21, 2018[11] |
| Absentee Application Deadline | May 29, 2018[11] |
| Early Voting Deadline | Available from May 7, 2018, to June 5, 2018[12] |
| General Election | November 6, 2018 |
| Polling locations: Go to this page to find early voting locations and your assigned precinct for election day. | |
For more on related elections, please see:
- California's 49th Congressional District election, 2018
- United States House Democratic Party primaries, 2018
- United States House Republican Party primaries, 2018
- Primaries in California, 2018
Candidates and election results
The following candidates ran in the primary for U.S. House California District 49 on June 5, 2018.
Nonpartisan primary election
Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 49
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Diane Harkey (R) | 25.5 | 46,468 |
| ✔ |  | Mike Levin (D) | 17.5 | 31,850 |
 | Sara Jacobs (D) | 15.8 | 28,778 | |
 | Douglas Applegate (D) | 13.1 | 23,850 | |
 | Kristin Gaspar (R) | 8.5 | 15,467 | |
 | Rocky Chávez (R) | 7.5 | 13,739 | |
 | Paul Kerr (D) | 4.4 | 8,099 | |
 | Brian Maryott (R) | 3.0 | 5,496 | |
| Mike Schmitt (R) | 1.3 | 2,379 | ||
 | Joshua Schoonover (R)  | 0.7 | 1,362 | |
 | Craig Nordal (R) | 0.6 | 1,156 | |
 | David Medway (R) | 0.6 | 1,066 | |
 | Robert Pendleton (Independent) | 0.5 | 905 | |
 | Danielle St. John (G) | 0.4 | 690 | |
 | Joshua Hancock (L) | 0.3 | 552 | |
| Jordan Mills (Peace and Freedom Party) | 0.1 | 233 | ||
| Total votes: 182,090 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
Election updates
Polling
- April 28 - May 2, 2018: A poll of 901 likely primary voters is conducted on behalf of the Jacobs campaign. The poll reports that Diane Harkey (R) and Rocky Chavez (R) lead with 14 percent support each. They are followed by Doug Applegate (D) with 13 percent support and Sara Jacobs (D) with 11 percent support. The poll reported that 21 percent of voters remained undecided.
- April 6-10, 2018: A poll conducted by SurveyUSA finds Rocky Chavez (R) leading with 16 percent support among the 535 likely voters polled. Chavez was followed by Doug Applegate (D) with 12 percent support, Mike Levin (D) with 9 percent support, and Diane Harkey (R) and Paul Kerr (D) with 8 percent support each. The poll found that 21 percent of voters were undecided.
Top candidates
Douglas Applegate
A trial attorney who served 32 years in the Marine Corps, Applegate's only previous run for elected office was a challenge to Darrell Issa (R) for the 49th district seat in 2016. That year, Applegate advanced to the general election, where Issa defeated him by a 0.6 percent margin.
Applegate announced that he would run again in 2018 the day after the 2016 election was called in Issa's favor. In his announcement that he would run again, Applegate cited his military background: "As a Marine Colonel, I know that the hardest fights often take a couple of battles — and I look forward to continuing our fight in the days, weeks, and months ahead."[13] Applegate's campaign website emphasized his opposition to Issa, saying "together we ran Darrell Issa off. Now it’s time to finish the job here in California's 49th Congressional District, to keep Trump in check."[14] The website emphasized Applegate's stances on healthcare, gender equity, and the minimum wage.[15]
Applegate was endorsed by National Nurses United, Progressive Democrats of America, and VoteVets.
Rocky Chavez
At the time of the 2018 election, Chavez represented District 76 in the California State Assembly, a post he had held since 2012. Chavez ran for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Barbara Boxer (D) in 2016, but withdrew before the primary.
In his January 2018 announcement that he would seek the seat, Chavez emphasized his appeal to non-Republican voters: "It’s time we come together and focus on progress, not partisan politics and gridlock...This has guided my work in the state Assembly and it will guide my work in Congress."[16] Chavez's campaign website emphasized his service in the Marine Corps, saying that Chavez "has lived the American Dream — and has the grit and far-reaching experience to help protect it for future generations."[17] The website highlighted Chavez's stances on national security, government management, and the economy.[18]
Chavez was endorsed by former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) and Assembly Republican Leader Brian Dahle (R).
Diane Harkey
At the time of the 2018 election, Harkey represented District 4 on the California State Board of Equalization, a post she was first elected to in 2014. She had previously served for six years in the California State Assembly and, prior to that, on the Dana Point City Council.
In her January 2018 announcement that she would seek the seat, Harkey emphasized her financial experience: "My whole policy has been basically helping Californians stay in business and do more business and collect taxes to help pay for the things we all want...I’m very strong on anything that’s financial or budgetary."[19] On her campaign website, Harkey emphasized her government experience: "I’m running for Congress because I’ve seen firsthand the need to reform the way government works and more important, the way it thinks."[20]
Harkey was endorsed by Rep. Issa (R) as well as the Republican Parties of Orange County and San Diego County.
Sara Jacobs
Jacobs had not previously sought elected office. Prior to the 2018 election, she served as a staffer with the State Department and the United Nations. She also served as a foreign policy advisor for Hillary Clinton's (D) presidential campaign in 2016.[21]
In her November 2017 announcement that she would seek the seat, Jacobs cited the national political climate as a motivating factor in her run: "I never thought I would run for elected office...But this moment is too important to sit on the sidelines — we need new leaders to step up and serve."[22] Jacobs' campaign website highlighted her stances on healthcare, the economy, and firearms regulations.[23]
Jacobs was endorsed by EMILY's List.
Mike Levin
An attorney with a focus in energy and environmental practice, Levin had not previously sought elected office.[24]
In an interview following his March 2017 announcement that he would seek the seat, Levin said that the 2016 election had motivated him to seek the seat: "Really, when Donald Trump became president of the United States, I was there in New York watching election returns, and I realized on the way home that the time is now for all of us."[25] Levin's campaign website emphasized his stances on the environment, government management, and healthcare.[26]
Levin was endorsed by Democracy for America and the Sierra Club.
List of all candidates
General election candidates
- Mike Levin (Democratic Party) ✔
- Diane Harkey (Republican Party)
Primary candidates
- Douglas Applegate (Democratic Party)
- Rocky Chávez (Republican Party)
- Kristin Gaspar (Republican Party)
- Joshua Hancock (Libertarian Party)
- Diane Harkey (Republican Party) ✔
- Sara Jacobs (Democratic Party)
- Paul Kerr (Democratic Party)
- Mike Levin (Democratic Party) ✔
- Brian Maryott (Republican Party)
- David Medway (Republican Party)
- Jordan Mills (Peace and Freedom Party)
- Craig Nordal (Republican Party)
- Robert Pendleton (Independent)
- Mike Schmitt (Republican Party)
- Joshua Schoonover (Republican Party)
- Danielle St. John (Green Party)
Did not make the ballot:
= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey
Timeline
- March 2, 2018: Democratic candidate Mike Levin participates in a candidate viability forum hosted by Flip the 49th and Indivisible Ocean Hills. The other four Democratic candidates in the race at the time, Doug Applegate, Sara Jacobs, Paul Kerr, and Christina Prejean, are invited to the forum but Applegate, Jacobs, and Kerr decline to participate, and Prejean withdraws from the race shortly after the forum begins.[27]
- February 24, 2018: The Democratic Party of California holds an endorsement vote, but no candidate receives the 60 percent required to earn the endorsement. The top finisher was Mike Levin (D) with 53 percent of the vote.[28]
- February 20, 2018: Applegate, Jacobs, Kerr, Levin, and Prejean participate in a debate in San Juan Capistrano.[29]
- January 10, 2018:
- Incumbent Darrell Issa announces that he will not seek re-election in the 49th District in 2018.[2]
- Election forecaster The Cook Political Report initially rated the 49th District race as a Toss-up. Following Issa's announcement that he won't seek re-election in the 49th District, Cook changes its rating to Lean Democratic.[30]
- Election forecaster Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball initially rated the 49th District race as a Toss-up. Following Issa's announcement that he won't seek re-election in the 49th District, Sabato changes its rating to Leans Democratic.[31]
Campaign finance
The table below contains data from FEC Pre-Primary 2018 reports. It includes only candidates who have reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of May 16, 2018.[32]
Satellite spending
American Future Fund
The American Future Fund is an organization which describes its mission as "to provide Americans with a conservative and free market viewpoint to have a mechanism to communicate and advocate on the issues that most interest and concern them."[33] The fund spent just under $500,000 on canvassing efforts and television advertising in support of the Chavez and Harkey campaigns.[34]
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is an organization which describes itself as "the official campaign arm of the Democrats in the House of Representatives."[35] As of May 31, 2018, the DCCC had spent $1.1 million in opposition to Rocky Chavez (R), while the House Majority PAC had spent an additional $185,000 opposing him.[36]
Women Vote!
- See also: Women Vote!
Women Vote! is a super PAC associated with EMILY's List, a political action committee dedicated to electing Democratic women to office who support legalized abortion. EMILY's List's website states that it works to "recruit the strongest candidates, support campaigns that can win, study the electorate, and turn out the vote."[37] The organization launched a direct mail, television, and digital advertising campaign in support of the candidacy of Sara Jacobs (D), spending $949,907.35 in support of Jacobs in April 2018 and an additional $1,033,184 in May 2018.[38][39][40][41]
Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Scroll right using the scrollbar below the table to view additional poll options.
| Top-two primary in California's 49th Congressional District | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Rocky Chavez (R) | Kristin Gaspar (R) | Diane Harkey (R) | Brian Maryott (R) | Mike Schmitt (R) | Doug Applegate (D) | Sara Jacobs (D) | Paul Kerr (D) | Mike Levin (D) | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||
| Benenson Strategy Group for the Jacobs campaign (April 28 - May 2, 2018) | 14% | 7% | 14% | 6% | 0% | 13% | 11% | 4% | 10% | 21% | +/-3.3 | 901 | |||||||
| SurveyUSA (April 6-10, 2018) | 16% | 5% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 12% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 21% | +/-5.3 | 535 | |||||||
| AVERAGES | 15% | 6% | 11% | 5.5% | 1.5% | 12.5% | 9% | 6% | 9.5% | 21% | +/-4.3 | 718 | |||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. | |||||||||||||||||||
| Top-two primary in California's 49th Congressional District | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Levin (D) | Chavez (R) | Not sure | Margin of Error | Sample Size | ||||||||||||||
| Public Policy Polling for the Progressive Change Campaign Committee February 20-21, 2018 | 47% | 39% | 13% | +/-5.8% | 282 registered voters | ||||||||||||||
| Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | |||||||||||||||||||
| Top-two primary in California's 49th Congressional District | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Applegate (D) | Jacobs (D) | Kerr (D) | Levin (D) | Prejean (D) | Chavez (R) | Gaspar (R) | Harkey (R) | Maryott (R) | Schoonover (R) | Hancock (L) | Mills (PFP) | Other | Undecided | Margin of Error | Sample Size | ||
| SurveyUSA February 10-13, 2018 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 8% | 1% | 17% | 7% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 27% | +/-5.4% | 510 likely voters | ||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | ||||||||||||||||||
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
| Race ratings: California's 49th Congressional District election, 2018 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | October 9, 2018 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season. | |||||||||
Debates and forums
March 2 forum
Democratic candidates Doug Applegate, Sara Jacobs, Paul Kerr, Mike Levin, and Christina Prejean were invited to participate in a candidate forum hosted by Flip the 49th and Indivisible Ocean Hills on March 2, 2018. The forum was intended to assess each candidate's viability for the race. Levin was the only candidate to participate in the full forum. Applegate, Jacobs, and Kerr sat the forum out, and Prejean withdrew from the race shortly after the forum began. Click here or here for coverage of the forum.
February 20 debate
On February 20, 2018, Democratic candidates Doug Applegate, Sara Jacobs, Paul Kerr, Mike Levin, and Christina Prejean participated in a debate in San Juan Capistrano. Click here, here, or here for coverage of the debate.
Top-two shutouts in the 2018 California primary elections
California was one of two states, alongside Washington, to use a top-two system for primary elections in 2018. Under a top-two system, all candidates appear on the same primary ballot regardless of partisan affiliation. The top two vote-getters advance to the general election, regardless of their partisan affiliation. This can lead to a top-two shutout, also known as a top-two lockout, in which two candidates from a single party advance to the general election, meaning that the party will hold the seat regardless of the election's outcome. Such shutouts are particularly likely in districts where the electorate contains a similar number of Democrats and Republicans and in which one party was running a greater number of candidates than the other. Primary elections under a top-two system have "the feeling of one of those civil wars in the Middle Ages, where the king is fighting against barons and there’s multiple alliances that form and collapse...It’s a lot less straightforward than just you got your Democrat, you got your Republican. It’s sort of organized chaos," according to Public Policy Institute of California research fellow Eric McGhee.[42]
Democrats faced the possibility of a shutout in five battleground U.S. House races where multiple Democrats and multiple Republicans are on the ballot. The five were among the seven U.S. House districts in California represented by a Republican that Hillary Clinton (D) carried in the 2016 election.[43] Meanwhile, Republicans faced the possibility of a shutout in statewide races, including the race for governor. Republican strategists were concerned that without a Republican candidate on the gubernatorial ballot in November, turnout would decease among Republican voters, damaging the party's prospects in other elections.[44]
The three districts most identified as potential Democratic shutouts are:[42][43][45][46]
- 48th District: In the 48th district, incumbent Dana Rohrabacher (R) faced 11 challengers, including five Democrats and Scott Baugh (R), a former Orange County Republican Party chairman. Democratic strategists were concerned that Baugh would earn enough votes that would otherwise have gone to Rohrabacher to take the second place position on the ballot, shutting the Democratic challengers out of the race.
- 39th District: In the 39th district, 17 candidates filed to succeed retiring incumbent Ed Royce (R). Former Assemblywoman Young Kim (R) was expected by strategists to take first place, setting up a battle for second among the remaining candidates.[43]
- 49th District: In the 49th district, four Democrats and eight Republicans filed for the seat held by retiring incumbent Darrell Issa (R). Assemblyman Rocky Chavez (R) was seen as the most likely candidate to finish in first place.[43]
Campaign strategies in top-two primaries
Candidates and campaign groups affiliated with both political parties adopted a variety of strategies for navigating the top-two primary structure and preventing or provoking a shutout. Among the strategies used in the 2018 elections were:
- Consolidation of candidate field: Parties risking a lockout sought to support the campaign of a particular candidate of that party in the hopes of increasing the proportion of the party's electorate backing that candidate and boosting the candidate's chances of making it onto the general election ballot. In the 48th district, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) added businessman Harley Rouda (D) to its Red to Blue list, granting Rouda access to financial and organizational support, as well as running ads promoting Rouda's campaign.[47][48]
- Consolidation of other party's candidate field: In races where one candidate was expected to finish the primary in first place, the party opposing the candidate sometimes sought to consolidate support around that candidate, decreasing the chances that another candidate from that party will take the second spot on the ballot. In the 39th district, where Young Kim (R) was expected to finish in first place, the DCCC released opposition research and attack ads targeting Kim's two top Republican opponents, Shawn Nelson (R) and Bob Huff (R).[49]
- Candidate withdrawals: Candidates seeking to boost their party's chances of making it onto the November ballot withdrew in the hopes of consolidating their party's vote. In the 48th district, three Democrats withdrew after the filing deadline. All three cited boosting their party's odds of making it past the primary as a motivating factor in their decision.[50][51][52] In the gubernatorial election, John Cox (R) called on his leading Republican opponent Travis Allen (R) to withdraw for the same reason.[53]
- Support for second-place candidate: Campaign groups seeking to increase the chances of a shutout also intervened in primaries. These groups often supported the second-place candidate of their party, hoping to boost them into the second spot on the November ballot. In the 48th district, the American Future Fund spent $100,000 to promote the campaign of Scott Baugh (R), increasing the chances that he and Rohrabacher will advance.[54]
Endorsements
| Democratic candidate endorsements | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Endorsement | Applegate[55]
|
Jacobs[56]
|
Kerr[57]
|
Levin[58]
| ||
| Federal officials | ||||||
| Nanette Barragan, U.S. representative | ✔ | |||||
| Earl Blumenauer, U.S. representative | ✔ | |||||
| Tony Cardenas, U.S. representative | ✔ | |||||
| Susan Davis, U.S. representative | ✔ | |||||
| Lois Frankel, U.S. representative[59] | ✔ | |||||
| Jimmy Gomez, U.S. representative | ✔ | |||||
| Alan Lowenthal, U.S. representative | ✔ | |||||
| Scott Peters, U.S. representative | ✔ | |||||
| Adam Schiff, U.S. representative | ✔ | |||||
| Brad Sherman, U.S. representative | ✔ | |||||
| Eric Swalwell, U.S. representative | ✔ | |||||
| Juan Vargas, U.S. representative | ✔ | |||||
| Loretta Sanchez, former U.S. representative | ✔ | |||||
| National figures | ||||||
| John Dalton, former Secretary of the Navy | ✔ | |||||
| State figures | ||||||
| Betty Yee, California state controller | ✔ | |||||
| Fiona Ma, California State Board of Equalization member | ✔ | |||||
| Toni Atkins, California state senator | ✔ | |||||
| Tom Daly, California state assemblyman | ✔ | ✔ | ||||
| Laura Friedman, California state assemblywoman | ✔ | |||||
| Local figures | ||||||
| Sheila Kuehl, Los Angeles County supervisor | ✔ | |||||
| Mara Elliott, San Diego city attorney[60] | ✔ | |||||
| Debra Lewis, Dana Point mayor | ✔ | |||||
| Sergio Farias, San Juan Capistrano mayor | ✔ | |||||
| Dwight Worden, Del Mar deputy mayor | ✔ | |||||
| Chuck Lowery, Oceanside deputy mayor | ✔ | |||||
| Tasha Boerner Horvath, Encinitas city councilwoman | ✔ | |||||
| Mark West, Imperial Beach city councilman[61] | ✔ | |||||
| Alejandra Sotelo-Solis, National city councilwoman | ✔ | |||||
| David Alvarez, San Diego city councilman | ✔ | |||||
| Barbara Bry, San Diego city councilwoman | ✔ | |||||
| Chris Ward, San Diego city councilman | ✔ | |||||
| Peter Zahn, Solana Beach city councilman | ✔ | |||||
| William Fischer, MiraCosta College Board trustee | ✔ | |||||
| Amy Hanacek, Capistrano Unified School Board member | ✔ | |||||
| Kathy Rallings, Carlsbad Unified School Board vice president | ✔ | |||||
| Gina Clayton-Tarvin, Ocean View School Board president | ✔ | |||||
| Rich Leib, Solana Beach School Board member | ✔ | |||||
| Rich Alderson, Vista School Board president | ✔ | |||||
| Cipriano Vargas, Vista School Board member | ✔ | |||||
| Ellen Montanari, activist[62] | ✔ | |||||
| Organizations | ||||||
| Americans for Democratic Action | ✔ | |||||
| BOLD PAC | ✔ | |||||
| California Communications Workers of America | ✔ | |||||
| California League of Conservation Voters | ✔ | |||||
| California State Association of Letter Carriers | ✔ | |||||
| California State American Postal Workers Union | ✔ | |||||
| California Teachers Association | ✔ | |||||
| Communications Workers of America Locals 9509 and 9511 | ✔ | |||||
| Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC | ✔ | |||||
| Democracy for America | ✔ | |||||
| Democratic Club of Vista | ✔ | |||||
| Democratic Women of South Orange County | ✔ | |||||
| EMILY's List | ✔ | |||||
| International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Locals 47 and 441 | ✔ | |||||
| International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 569 | ✔ | |||||
| International Longshore and Warehouse Union Locals 13, 63, and 94 | ✔ | |||||
| International Union of Painters & Allied Trades District Council 36 | ✔ | |||||
| Ironworkers 229 | ✔ | |||||
| Ironworkers 433 | ✔ | |||||
| Justice Democrats | ✔ | |||||
| National Organization for Women | ✔ | ✔ | ||||
| National Nurses United | ✔ | |||||
| North County Latino Democrats | ✔ | |||||
| Oceanside Firefighters Association | ✔ | |||||
| Orange County Firefighters | ✔ | |||||
| Orange County Professional Firefighters Association Local 3631 | ✔ | |||||
| Plasterers Union Local 200 | ✔ | |||||
| Plumbers, Steamfitters, Welders & Apprentices Union Local 582 | ✔ | |||||
| Progressive Change Campaign Committee | ✔ | |||||
| Progressive Democrats of America | ✔ | |||||
| Roofers, Waterproofers & Allied Workers Local 220 | ✔ | |||||
| Run Women Run[63] | ✔ | |||||
| San Diego County Democrats for Environmental Action | ✔ | |||||
| San Diego Democrats for Environmental Action | ✔ | |||||
| San Diego Progressive Democratic Club | ✔ | |||||
| The Sierra Club | ✔ | |||||
| South Orange County Democratic Club | ✔ | |||||
| Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters | ✔ | |||||
| Teamsters Union Local 952 | ✔ | |||||
| VoteVets | ✔ | |||||
| Republican candidate endorsements | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Endorsement | Chavez[64]
|
Gaspar[7]
|
Harkey[5]
| |
| Federal officials | ||||
| Ken Calvert, U.S. representative | ✔ | |||
| Darrell Issa, U.S. representative | ✔ | |||
| Mimi Walters, U.S. representative | ✔ | |||
| Dana Rohrabacher, U.S. representative | ✔ | |||
| Kevin McCarthy, U.S. representative[65] | ✔ | |||
| Ed Royce, U.S. representative | ✔ | |||
| David Valadao, U.S. representative | ✔ | |||
| State figures | ||||
| Arnold Schwarzenegger, former governor of California[8] | ✔ | |||
| Jeff Stone, California state senator | ✔ | |||
| Mike Morrell, California state senator | ✔ | |||
| Dante Acosta, California state assemblyman | ✔ | |||
| Travis Allen, California state assemblyman | ✔ | |||
| Catherine Baker, California state assemblywoman | ✔ | |||
| Phillip Chen, California state assemblyman | ✔ | |||
| Steven Choi, California state assemblyman | ✔ | |||
| Jordan Cunningham, California state assemblyman | ✔ | |||
| Brian Dahle, California state assemblyman | ✔ | |||
| Heath Flora, California state assemblyman | ✔ | |||
| Devon Mathis, California state assemblyman | ✔ | |||
| Melissa Melendez, California state assemblywoman | ✔ | |||
| Jay Obernotle, California state assemblyman | ✔ | |||
| Jim Patterson, California state assemblyman | ✔ | |||
| Connie Conway, former California state assemblywoman | ✔ | |||
| Shannon Grove, former California state assemblywoman | ✔ | |||
| Brian Jones, former California state assemblyman | ✔ | |||
| Chad Mayes, former California state assemblyman | ✔ | |||
| Local figures | ||||
| Claude Parrish, Orange County assessor | ✔ | |||
| Sandra Hutchens, Orange County sheriff | ✔ | |||
| Ernie Dronenburg, San Diego County assessor | ✔ | |||
| Lisa Bartlett, Orange County supervisor | ✔ | |||
| Andrew Do, Orange County supervisor | ✔ | |||
| Michelle Steel, Orange County supervisor | ✔ | |||
| Mike Munzing, Aliso Viejo mayor | ✔ | |||
| Matt Hall, Carlsbad mayor | ✔ | |||
| Barbara Delgleize, Huntington Beach mayor | ✔ | |||
| Don Wagner, Irvine mayor | ✔ | |||
| Christina Shea, Irvine mayor pro tem | ✔ | |||
| Peter Weiss, Oceanside mayor | ✔ | |||
| Jim Wood, Oceanside mayor | ✔ | |||
| Ginger Marshall, former Solana Beach mayor | ✔ | |||
| Kevin Faulconer, San Diego mayor | ✔ | |||
| John Aguilera, Vista deputy mayor | ✔ | |||
| Mark Packard, Carlsbad city councilman | ✔ | |||
| Michael Schumacher, Carlsbad city councilman | ✔ | |||
| John Tomlinson, Dana Point city councilman | ✔ | |||
| Joe Tessari, Eastvale city councilman | ✔ | |||
| Janine Heft, Laguna Hills city councilwoman | ✔ | |||
| Laurie Davies, Laguna Niguel city councilwoman | ✔ | |||
| Linda Lindholm, Laguna Niguel city councilwoman | ✔ | |||
| Wendy Bucknum, Mission Viejo city councilwoman | ✔ | |||
| Trish Kelley, Mission Viejo city councilwoman | ✔ | |||
| Carol Gamble, Rancho Santa Margarita city councilwoman | ✔ | |||
| Brad McGirr, Rancho Santa Margarita city councilman | ✔ | |||
| Michael Vaughn, Rancho Santa Margarita city councilman | ✔ | |||
| Carl DeMaio, San Diego city councilman | ✔ | |||
| Scott Sherman, San Diego city councilman | ✔ | |||
| Pam Slater-Price, former San Diego supervisor | ✔ | |||
| Pam Patterson, San Juan Capistrano city councilwoman | ✔ | |||
| Ronn Hall, Santee city councilman | ✔ | |||
| John Franklin, Vista city councilman | ✔ | |||
| Joe Green, Vista city councilman | ✔ | |||
| Amanda Rigby, Vista city councilwoman | ✔ | |||
| Tara Campbell, Yorba Linda city councilwoman | ✔ | |||
| Robert Ming, former Laguna Niguel mayor | ✔ | |||
| Sam Allevato, former San Juan Capistrano mayor | ✔ | |||
| Joe Soto, former San Juan Capistrano mayor | ✔ | |||
| Leslie Schneider, Encinitas School Board member | ✔ | |||
| Robert "Camo" Gleisberg, Oceanside Unified School Board member | ✔ | |||
| TJ Zane, Poway Unified Board of Education board member | ✔ | |||
| Sherry Hodges, former San Dieguito Union High School trustee | ✔ | |||
| Organizations | ||||
| Association of Orange County Deputy Sheriffs | ✔ | |||
| California Association of Tax Professionals | ✔ | |||
| California Republican Veterans Association | ✔ | |||
| California Statewide Law Enforcement Association | ✔ | |||
| Howard Jarvis Taxpayer's Association | ✔ | |||
| Orange County Coalition of Police and Sheriffs | ✔ | |||
| Republican Party of Orange County | ✔ | |||
| Republican Party of San Diego County | ✔ | |||
| Veterans for Rocky | ✔ | |||
Campaign advertisements
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Republican district won by Hillary Clinton
This district was one of 25 Republican-held U.S. House districts that Hillary Clinton (D) won in the 2016 presidential election.[66] Nearly all were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2018.
Click on the table below to see the full list of districts.
Click here to see the 13 Democratic-held U.S. House districts that Donald Trump (R) won.
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+1, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 1 percentage point more Republican than the national average. This made California's 49th Congressional District the 228th most Republican nationally.[71]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.91. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.91 points toward that party.[72]
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in California heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Following the 2016 elections, Democrats held both U.S. Senate seats in California.
- Democrats held 39 of 53 U.S. House seats in California.
State executives
- As of May 2018, Democrats held seven of 10 state executive positions and the remaining three positions were officially nonpartisan.
- The governor of California was Democrat Jerry Brown.
State legislature
- Democrats controlled both chambers of the California State Legislature. They had a 55-25 majority in the state Assembly and a 27-13 majority in the state Senate.
Trifecta status
- California was a state government trifecta, meaning that Democrats held the governorship and majorities in the state house and state senate.
2018 elections
- See also: California elections, 2018
California held elections for the following positions in 2018:
- 1 Senate seat
- 53 U.S. House seats
- Governor
- Seven other state executive positions
- 20 of 40 state Senate seats
- 80 state Assembly seats
- Two state Supreme Court justices
- 35 state Court of Appeals judges
- Local trial court judges
- School board members
Demographics
| Demographic data for California | ||
|---|---|---|
| California | U.S. | |
| Total population: | 38,993,940 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 155,779 | 3,531,905 |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 61.8% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 5.9% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 13.7% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 4.5% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 38.4% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 81.8% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 31.4% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $61,818 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 18.2% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in California. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. | ||
As of July 2016, California had a population of approximately 39,000,000 people, with its three largest cities being Los Angeles (pop. est. 4.0 million), San Diego (pop. est. 1.4 million), and San Jose (pop. est. 1 million).[73][74]
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in California from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the California Secretary of State.
Historical elections
Presidential elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in California every year from 2000 to 2016.
| Election results (President of the United States), California 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | Hillary Clinton |
61.7% | Donald Trump |
31.6% | 30.1% |
| 2012 | Barack Obama |
60.2% | Mitt Romney |
37.1% | 23.1% |
| 2008 | Barack Obama |
61.1% | John McCain |
37% | 24.1% |
| 2004 | John Kerry |
54.4% | George W. Bush |
44.4% | 10% |
| 2000 | Al Gore |
53.5% | George W. Bush |
41.7% | 11.8% |
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in California from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
| Election results (U.S. Senator), California 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | Kamala Harris |
61.6% | Loretta Sanchez |
38.4% | 23.2% |
| 2012 | Dianne Feinstein |
62.5% | Elizabeth Emken |
37.5% | 25% |
| 2010 | Barbara Boxer |
52.2% | Carly Fiorina |
42.2% | 10% |
| 2006 | Dianne Feinstein |
59.5% | Richard Mountjoy |
35.1% | 24.4% |
| 2004 | Barbara Boxer |
57.8% | Bill Jones |
37.8% | 20% |
| 2000 | Dianne Feinstein |
55.9% | Tom Campbell |
36.6% | 19.3% |
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in California.
| Election results (Governor), California 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2014 | Jerry Brown |
60% | Neel Kashkari |
40% | 20% |
| 2010 | Jerry Brown |
53.8% | Meg Whitman |
40.9% | 12.9% |
| 2006 | Arnold Schwarzenegger |
55.9% | Phil Angelides |
39.0% | 16.9% |
| 2002 | Gray Davis |
47.3% | Bill Simon |
42.4% | 4.9% |
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent California in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
| Congressional delegation, California 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Democrats | Democrats (%) | Republicans | Republicans (%) | Balance of power |
| 2016 | 39 |
73.5% | 14 |
26.4% | D+25 |
| 2014 | 39 |
73.5% | 14 |
26.4% | D+25 |
| 2012 | 38 |
71.7% | 15 |
28.3% | D+23 |
| 2010 | 34 |
64.1% | 19 |
35.8% | D+15 |
| 2008 | 34 |
64.1% | 19 |
35.8% | D+15 |
| 2006 | 34 |
64.1% | 19 |
35.8% | D+15 |
| 2004 | 33 |
62.3% | 20 |
37.7% | D+13 |
| 2002 | 33 |
62.3% | 20 |
37.7% | D+13 |
| 2000 | 32 |
61.5% | 20 |
38.5% | D+12 |
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
California Party Control: 1992-2025
Twenty years with Democratic trifectas • No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| Senate | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| Assembly | D | D | D | S | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in California, 2018
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
- United States Senate elections, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Check out our maps and analysis comparing 2016's presidential and congressional results by district," January 31, 2017
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 CNBC, "California GOP Darrell Issa will retire, giving Democrats another chance to win a seat," January 10, 2018
- ↑ Los Angeles Times, "California Democrats agree they have too many candidates for Congress. What to do about them is the problem," February 24, 2018
- ↑ Los Angeles Times, "Here's how California's Democratic Party endorsements are shaping up this weekend in crucial House races," February 24, 2018
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 Diane Harkey, "Endorsements," accessed March 23, 2018
- ↑ The Hill, "House Foreign Affairs chairman to retire," January 8, 2018
- ↑ 7.0 7.1 The San Diego Union-Tribune, "Gaspar announces she's running for Rep. Darrell Issa's seat," January 25, 2018
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 Twitter, "Arnold Schwarzenegger on January 11, 2018," accessed January 25, 2018
- ↑ The filing deadline in this race was extended because the incumbent opted not to run for re-election.
- ↑ The Mercury News, "Late GOP entries shake up congressional races as California filing deadline looms," March 9, 2018
- ↑ 11.0 11.1 California Secretary of State, "Election dates and resources," accessed January 31, 2018
- ↑ Ballotpedia staff, "Phone call with the California Secretary of State's Office," January 31, 2018
- ↑ San Diego Union-Tribune, "Doug Applegate announces he's running in 2018, sets up for a rematch against Darrell Issa," November 29, 2016
- ↑ Colonel Doug Applegate for Congress, "Home," accessed May 15, 2018
- ↑ Colonel Doug Applegate for Congress, "Issues," accessed May 15, 2018
- ↑ Los Angeles Times, "GOP Assemblyman Rocky Chavez announces he'll run for Darrell Issa's U.S. House seat," January 10, 2018
- ↑ Rocky Chavez for Congress, "About Rocky," accessed May 15, 2018
- ↑ Rocky Chavez for Congress, "On the Issues," accessed May 15, 2018
- ↑ San Clemente Times, "Republican Diane Harkey to Run for California’s 49th Congressional District," January 10, 2018
- ↑ Diane Harkey for U.S. Congress, "Home," accessed May 15, 2018
- ↑ Sara Jacobs for California, "Why I'm Running," accessed May 15, 2018
- ↑ Times of San Diego, "Sara Jacobs, Qualcomm Founder Kin, Is 4th Democrat to Challenge Issa in 2018," November 16, 2017
- ↑ Sara Jacobs for Congress, "Issues," accessed May 15, 2018
- ↑ Mike Levin for Congress, "About Me," accessed May 15, 2018
- ↑ San Diego Union-Tribune, "Environmental attorney Mike Levin announces campaign against Darrell Issa," March 8, 2017
- ↑ Mike Levin for Congress, "Priorities," accessed May 15, 2018
- ↑ The San Diego Union-Tribune, "Forum flops after candidates cite legal concerns and stay home," March 6, 2018
- ↑ The San Diego Union-Tribune, "Dems won't endorse a candidate in race for Issa's seat," February 24, 2018
- ↑ Los Angeles Times, "Democratic candidates for Congress square off on question of Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House," February 21, 2018
- ↑ The Cook Political Report, "Issa retirement moves CA-49 from Toss Up to Lean Democratic," January 10, 2018
- ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2018 ratings changes," accessed February 10, 2018
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "California - House 49, Compare candidate financial totals," accessed May 28, 2018
- ↑ Facebook, "American Future Fund," accessed June 4, 2018
- ↑ San Diego Union Tribune, "Conservative group starts ad campaign for Rocky Chávez and Diane Harkey," May 23, 2018
- ↑ DCCC "About," accessed April 22, 2017
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Morning Digest: Daily Kos Elections debuts our initial 2018 gubernatorial race ratings," June 1, 2018
- ↑ EMILY's List, "What we do," accessed May 17, 2016
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Independent Expenditures, Committee: Women Vote!" accessed May 28, 2018
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Independent Expenditures, Committee: Women Vote!" accessed May 28, 2018
- ↑ EMILY's List, "RESPONSE FROM VOTERS IN CA-49 DISTRICT IS CLEAR: NEW AD EFFECTIVELY HIGHLIGHTS CLEAR CHOICE," May 23, 2018
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Independent Expenditures - WOMEN VOTE!" accessed May 31, 2018
- ↑ 42.0 42.1 Vox, "California’s 'top two' primary chaos, explained," May 29, 2018
- ↑ 43.0 43.1 43.2 43.3 Cook Political Report, "House: Democrats Risk Disaster in California's Top Two Primaries," May 2, 2018
- ↑ National Public Radio, "GOP Fears It Will Be Shut Out Of California Governor's Race," May 10, 2018
- ↑ Roll Call, "‘That Danger Is Real’ — Democrats’ Final Push to Avoid Shutout in Key California Races," May 24, 2018
- ↑ The Hill, "Democrats may suffer from California’s top-two system," May 22, 2018
- ↑ Slate, "House Democrats Are Starting to Pick Sides in Key California Primaries," May 11, 2018
- ↑ Roll Call, "DCCC Launches Joint TV Ad With California’s Harley Rouda," May 22, 2018
- ↑ Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, "Bob Huff and Shawn Nelson," May 23, 2018
- ↑ OC Register, "Another Orange County Democrat withdraws, narrowing crowd for 48th congressional seat," April 11, 2018
- ↑ Los Angeles Times, "Democrat drops out of race against Rohrabacher in the name of unity, calls on other candidates to do the same," March 21, 2018
- ↑ Twitter, "Christine Mai-Duc," May 1, 2018
- ↑ Sacramento Bee, "Republican drops out of race for California governor," February 26, 2018
- ↑ Talking Points Memo, "GOP Group Launches Bid To Shut Dems Out Of Key California House Races," May 23, 2018
- ↑ Colonel Doug Applegate for Congress, "Endorsements," accessed May 28, 2018
- ↑ Sara Jacobs, Democrat for Congress, "The latest," accessed May 28, 2018
- ↑ Paul Kerr, United States Congress, "News," accessed May 28, 2018
- ↑ Mike Levin, "Endorsements," accessed March 23, 2018
- ↑ Facebook, "Sara Jacobs on January 4, 2018," accessed January 25, 2018
- ↑ Facebook, "Sara Jacobs on January 13, 2018," accessed January 25, 2018
- ↑ Facebook, "Sara Jacobs on January 11, 2018," accessed January 25, 2018
- ↑ Times of San Diego, "Lead Anti-Issa Rally Organizer Backs Mike Levin in 49th District," May 26, 2018
- ↑ Twitter, "Sara Jacobs on March 23, 2018," accessed March 23, 2018
- ↑ Rocky Chavez for Congress, "Newsroom," accessed May 28, 2018
- ↑ Diane Harkey for Congress, "BREAKING NEWS: House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy endorses Diane Harkey in CA-49," May 19, 2018
- ↑ This figure includes Pennsylvania districts that were redrawn by the state Supreme Court in early 2018 and districts that flipped in special elections.
- ↑ The new 1st district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 8th District held by Fitzpatrick. Click here to read more.
- ↑ The new 5th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 7th District held by Meehan. Click here to read more.
- ↑ The new 6th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 6th District held by Costello. Click here to read more.
- ↑ The new 7th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 15th District held by Dent. Click here to read more.
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ California Demographics, "California Cities by Population," accessed April 2, 2018
- ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts California," accessed April 2, 2018
