California's 4th Congressional District election, 2020
- Election date: Nov. 3
- Registration deadline(s): Nov. 3 (in person); Oct. 19 (online; by mail)
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: Yes
- Recount laws
- Early voting starts: Oct. 5
- Absentee/mail voting deadline(s): Nov. 3 (postmarked); Nov. 20 (received)
- Processing, counting, and challenging absentee/mail-in ballots
- Voter ID: No ID
- Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
All U.S. congressional districts, including the 4th Congressional District of California, held elections in 2020.
Incumbent Tom McClintock won election in the general election for U.S. House California District 4.
| Candidate filing deadline | Primary election | General election |
|---|---|---|
Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Tom McClintock, who was first elected in 2008.
As of the 2010 redistricting cycle, California's 4th Congressional District was located in the central portion of the state and included the counties of Alpine, Amador, Calaveras, El Dorado, Mariposa and Tuolumne. It also contained portions of Fresno, Madera, Nevada and Placer counties.[1]
Post-election analysis
The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.
| Presidential and congressional election results, California's 4th Congressional District, 2020 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Race | Presidential | U.S. House |
Democratic candidate  |
44 | 44.1 |
Republican candidate  |
53.7 | 55.9 |
| Difference | 9.7 | 11.8 |
Election procedure changes in 2020
Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.
California modified its absentee/mail-in and in-person voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:
- Absentee/mail-in voting: Mail-in ballots were sent to all registered voters in the general election.
- In-person voting: Counties were authorized to consolidate precincts and defer opening voting centers until the third day before the election.
For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House California District 4
Incumbent Tom McClintock defeated Brynne Kennedy in the general election for U.S. House California District 4 on November 3, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Tom McClintock (R) | 55.9 | 247,291 |
 | Brynne Kennedy (D) | 44.1 | 194,731 | |
| Total votes: 442,022 | |||
 = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Nonpartisan primary election
Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 4
The following candidates ran in the primary for U.S. House California District 4 on March 3, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Tom McClintock (R) | 50.7 | 141,244 |
| ✔ | | Brynne Kennedy (D) | 39.8 | 110,771 |
 | Julianne Benzel (R) | 4.4 | 12,138 | |
 | Robert Lawton (Independent) | 1.7 | 4,848 | |
 | Jamie Byers (R) | 1.7 | 4,822 | |
 | Jacob Thomas (R) | 1.6 | 4,527 | |
| Total votes: 278,350 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
There are no Pivot Counties in California. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won California with 61.7 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 31.6 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, California voted Republican 53.33 percent of the time and Democratic 43.33 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, California voted Democratic all five times. In 2016, California had 55 electoral votes, which was the most of any state. The 55 electoral votes were 10.2 percent of all 538 available electoral votes and were 20.4 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election.
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Assembly districts in California. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[2][3]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 58 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 38.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 66 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 40.3 points. Clinton won 11 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 22 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 12.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 14 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 13 points. |
| 2016 Presidential Results by State Assembly District | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 39.63% | 57.31% | R+17.7 | 36.09% | 56.75% | R+20.7 | R |
| 2 | 64.68% | 30.51% | D+34.2 | 62.20% | 28.98% | D+33.2 | D |
| 3 | 42.41% | 54.46% | R+12.1 | 39.47% | 53.31% | R+13.8 | R |
| 4 | 63.16% | 33.86% | D+29.3 | 63.03% | 29.95% | D+33.1 | D |
| 5 | 41.27% | 55.92% | R+14.7 | 38.51% | 54.85% | R+16.3 | R |
| 6 | 38.59% | 59.09% | R+20.5 | 41.17% | 52.02% | R+10.9 | R |
| 7 | 67.59% | 29.61% | D+38 | 67.63% | 25.69% | D+41.9 | D |
| 8 | 51.72% | 45.62% | D+6.1 | 51.77% | 41.03% | D+10.7 | D |
| 9 | 60.56% | 37.52% | D+23 | 61.47% | 32.89% | D+28.6 | D |
| 10 | 73.76% | 23.28% | D+50.5 | 75.65% | 17.96% | D+57.7 | D |
| 11 | 60.96% | 36.87% | D+24.1 | 58.86% | 35.17% | D+23.7 | D |
| 12 | 45.19% | 52.50% | R+7.3 | 43.11% | 51.05% | R+7.9 | R |
| 13 | 64.23% | 33.88% | D+30.4 | 62.97% | 31.79% | D+31.2 | D |
| 14 | 68.80% | 28.72% | D+40.1 | 69.55% | 24.47% | D+45.1 | D |
| 15 | 86.82% | 9.56% | D+77.3 | 87.39% | 7.04% | D+80.4 | D |
| 16 | 57.74% | 40.10% | D+17.6 | 64.47% | 29.23% | D+35.2 | R |
| 17 | 87.07% | 9.36% | D+77.7 | 88.12% | 6.95% | D+81.2 | D |
| 18 | 86.89% | 10.23% | D+76.7 | 85.89% | 8.44% | D+77.5 | D |
| 19 | 78.94% | 18.38% | D+60.6 | 81.63% | 13.34% | D+68.3 | D |
| 20 | 75.74% | 22.15% | D+53.6 | 75.52% | 19.12% | D+56.4 | D |
| 21 | 55.61% | 42.03% | D+13.6 | 54.63% | 39.46% | D+15.2 | D |
| 22 | 71.43% | 26.31% | D+45.1 | 75.16% | 19.75% | D+55.4 | D |
| 23 | 43.46% | 54.71% | R+11.2 | 43.95% | 50.78% | R+6.8 | R |
| 24 | 72.16% | 24.96% | D+47.2 | 78.19% | 15.93% | D+62.3 | D |
| 25 | 72.40% | 25.26% | D+47.1 | 73.61% | 20.90% | D+52.7 | D |
| 26 | 41.15% | 56.68% | R+15.5 | 41.54% | 52.93% | R+11.4 | R |
| 27 | 76.36% | 21.54% | D+54.8 | 77.76% | 17.29% | D+60.5 | D |
| 28 | 66.64% | 30.77% | D+35.9 | 70.63% | 23.08% | D+47.6 | D |
| 29 | 69.95% | 26.66% | D+43.3 | 70.00% | 22.96% | D+47 | D |
| 30 | 66.99% | 30.86% | D+36.1 | 66.70% | 27.32% | D+39.4 | D |
| 31 | 61.98% | 36.21% | D+25.8 | 62.13% | 32.93% | D+29.2 | D |
| 32 | 56.20% | 41.81% | D+14.4 | 56.50% | 37.98% | D+18.5 | D |
| 33 | 41.80% | 55.51% | R+13.7 | 40.02% | 54.61% | R+14.6 | R |
| 34 | 33.96% | 63.85% | R+29.9 | 34.07% | 60.21% | R+26.1 | R |
| 35 | 47.82% | 49.42% | R+1.6 | 49.57% | 43.43% | D+6.1 | R |
| 36 | 48.79% | 48.48% | D+0.3 | 49.94% | 43.86% | D+6.1 | R |
| 37 | 60.97% | 36.28% | D+24.7 | 64.27% | 29.21% | D+35.1 | D |
| 38 | 46.73% | 50.84% | R+4.1 | 49.64% | 44.39% | D+5.2 | R |
| 39 | 73.75% | 23.67% | D+50.1 | 74.64% | 19.80% | D+54.8 | D |
| 40 | 53.14% | 44.72% | D+8.4 | 54.08% | 40.01% | D+14.1 | R |
| 41 | 59.74% | 37.72% | D+22 | 62.82% | 31.27% | D+31.5 | D |
| 42 | 44.98% | 52.93% | R+7.9 | 45.61% | 49.70% | R+4.1 | R |
| 43 | 67.35% | 29.62% | D+37.7 | 68.94% | 25.45% | D+43.5 | D |
| 44 | 52.37% | 45.51% | D+6.9 | 57.12% | 36.99% | D+20.1 | D |
| 45 | 63.46% | 34.12% | D+29.3 | 67.36% | 27.39% | D+40 | D |
| 46 | 73.73% | 23.65% | D+50.1 | 76.20% | 18.48% | D+57.7 | D |
| 47 | 71.49% | 26.54% | D+44.9 | 70.10% | 24.80% | D+45.3 | D |
| 48 | 64.08% | 33.44% | D+30.6 | 65.60% | 28.50% | D+37.1 | D |
| 49 | 64.69% | 33.26% | D+31.4 | 67.57% | 27.17% | D+40.4 | D |
| 50 | 70.79% | 26.51% | D+44.3 | 76.72% | 18.33% | D+58.4 | D |
| 51 | 83.48% | 13.50% | D+70 | 84.05% | 10.19% | D+73.9 | D |
| 52 | 65.01% | 32.92% | D+32.1 | 65.78% | 28.71% | D+37.1 | D |
| 53 | 84.64% | 12.59% | D+72 | 84.83% | 9.63% | D+75.2 | D |
| 54 | 83.62% | 13.88% | D+69.7 | 85.15% | 10.12% | D+75 | D |
| 55 | 45.77% | 52.23% | R+6.5 | 49.92% | 44.61% | D+5.3 | R |
| 56 | 62.14% | 36.26% | D+25.9 | 64.21% | 31.24% | D+33 | D |
| 57 | 63.71% | 34.01% | D+29.7 | 65.92% | 28.39% | D+37.5 | D |
| 58 | 70.24% | 27.80% | D+42.4 | 72.54% | 22.26% | D+50.3 | D |
| 59 | 93.24% | 5.19% | D+88 | 90.70% | 5.09% | D+85.6 | D |
| 60 | 51.32% | 46.31% | D+5 | 52.48% | 41.97% | D+10.5 | D |
| 61 | 63.43% | 34.55% | D+28.9 | 62.47% | 31.62% | D+30.9 | D |
| 62 | 80.81% | 17.00% | D+63.8 | 82.05% | 13.06% | D+69 | D |
| 63 | 76.06% | 21.73% | D+54.3 | 77.35% | 17.38% | D+60 | D |
| 64 | 88.74% | 9.98% | D+78.8 | 86.21% | 9.61% | D+76.6 | D |
| 65 | 51.90% | 45.68% | D+6.2 | 56.73% | 37.28% | D+19.4 | D |
| 66 | 54.18% | 43.24% | D+10.9 | 59.97% | 33.60% | D+26.4 | D |
| 67 | 39.61% | 58.33% | R+18.7 | 38.89% | 55.94% | R+17.1 | R |
| 68 | 42.55% | 55.12% | R+12.6 | 49.42% | 44.58% | D+4.8 | R |
| 69 | 67.37% | 30.30% | D+37.1 | 71.94% | 22.33% | D+49.6 | D |
| 70 | 67.38% | 29.93% | D+37.5 | 68.13% | 25.09% | D+43 | D |
| 71 | 38.47% | 59.51% | R+21 | 38.19% | 56.26% | R+18.1 | R |
| 72 | 46.71% | 51.06% | R+4.4 | 51.40% | 43.13% | D+8.3 | R |
| 73 | 38.68% | 59.36% | R+20.7 | 43.89% | 50.38% | R+6.5 | R |
| 74 | 45.14% | 52.42% | R+7.3 | 50.71% | 43.29% | D+7.4 | R |
| 75 | 39.42% | 58.50% | R+19.1 | 43.22% | 50.68% | R+7.5 | R |
| 76 | 48.76% | 49.04% | R+0.3 | 53.11% | 40.38% | D+12.7 | R |
| 77 | 48.25% | 49.83% | R+1.6 | 55.16% | 38.94% | D+16.2 | R |
| 78 | 63.15% | 34.08% | D+29.1 | 67.48% | 25.85% | D+41.6 | D |
| 79 | 61.21% | 36.91% | D+24.3 | 64.24% | 30.04% | D+34.2 | D |
| 80 | 69.47% | 28.67% | D+40.8 | 73.15% | 21.34% | D+51.8 | D |
| Total | 60.35% | 37.19% | D+23.2 | 62.25% | 31.89% | D+30.4 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+10, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 10 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made California's 4th Congressional District the 131st most Republican nationally.[4]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.11. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.11 points toward that party.[5]
Campaign finance
This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[6] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[7] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McClintock | Republican Party | $2,076,411 | $2,130,296 | $171,001 | As of December 31, 2020 |
| Brynne Kennedy | Democratic Party | $3,022,017 | $3,018,529 | $3,489 | As of December 31, 2020 |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
|||||
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]
| Race ratings: California's 4th Congressional District election, 2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 3, 2020 | October 27, 2020 | October 20, 2020 | October 13, 2020 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season. | |||||||||
Candidate ballot access
The table below details filing requirements for 4th Congressional District candidates in California in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in California, click here.
| Filing requirements, 2020 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Office | Party | Signatures required | Signature formula | Filing fee | Filing fee formula | Filing deadline | Source |
| California | 4th Congressional District | All candidates | 2,000 | Fixed number | $1,740.00 | 1% of annual salary | 12/6/2019 | Source |
District election history
2018
General election
General election for U.S. House California District 4
Incumbent Tom McClintock defeated Jessica Morse in the general election for U.S. House California District 4 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Tom McClintock (R) | 54.1 | 184,401 |
 | Jessica Morse (D) | 45.9 | 156,253 | |
| Total votes: 340,654 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Nonpartisan primary election
Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 4
The following candidates ran in the primary for U.S. House California District 4 on June 5, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Tom McClintock (R) | 51.8 | 109,679 |
| ✔ | | Jessica Morse (D) | 20.3 | 42,942 |
 | Regina Bateson (D) | 12.4 | 26,303 | |
 | Mitchell White (R) | 6.8 | 14,433 | |
 | Roza Calderon (D) | 6.4 | 13,621 | |
| Robert Lawton (D) | 2.2 | 4,593 | |
| Total votes: 211,571 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Steven Castellano (R)
- Richard Martin (D)
- Rochelle Wilcox (D)
2016
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Tom McClintock (R) defeated Bob Derlet (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. McClintock and Derlet defeated Sean White (D) in the top-two primary on June 7, 2016.[12][13]
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  Tom McClintock Incumbent |
62.7% | 220,133 | |
| Democratic | Bob Derlet | 37.3% | 130,845 | |
| Total Votes | 350,978 | |||
| Source: California Secretary of State | ||||
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |
Tom McClintock Incumbent |
61.5% | 135,626 | |
| Democratic | Bob Derlet |
27.5% | 60,574 | |
| Democratic | Sean White | 11.1% | 24,460 | |
| Total Votes | 220,660 | |||
| Source: California Secretary of State |
||||
2014
The 4th Congressional District of California held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Tom McClintock (R) defeated Art Moore (R) in the general election.
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Tom McClintock Incumbent |
60% | 126,784 | |
| Republican | Art Moore | 40% | 84,350 | |
| Total Votes | 211,134 | |||
| Source: California Secretary of State | ||||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in California, 2020
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2020
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ California Secretary of State, "Certified List of Candidates for Voter-Nominated Offices June 7, 2016, Presidential Primary Election," accessed April 4, 2016
- ↑ The New York Times, "California Primary Results," June 7, 2016
