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California's 50th Congressional District election, 2020

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California's 50th Congressional District
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Top-two primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 6, 2019
Primary: March 3, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Vacant (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in California
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
Inside Elections: Likely Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
California's 50th Congressional District
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California elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 50th Congressional District of California, held elections in 2020.

Darrell Issa won election in the general election for U.S. House California District 50.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
December 6, 2019
March 3, 2020
November 3, 2020


The 50th Congressional District seat is vacant following the resignation of former U.S. Rep. Duncan Hunter. Read more below.


Campa-Najjar and Issa were the top two finishers from among the 10 candidates who ran in the March 3, 2020, top-two primary for the district. In the primary, Campa-Najjar received 36.3% of the vote to Issa's 23.5%. Third-place finisher Carl DeMaio (R) received 20.2% of the vote and conceded the election on March 10, 2020.[1]

Heading into the election, the 50th District seat was vacant. Duncan Hunter, who had represented the district since 2013, resigned January 13, 2020, after pleading guilty to misusing campaign funds.[2]

In the 2018 general election, Hunter defeated Campa-Najjar 51.7% to 48.3%.

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) named Issa as a "Contender" candidate in its Young Guns program in February 2020.[3] The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+11, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 11 percentage points more Republican than the national average.

The outcome of this race affected partisan control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 117th Congress. All 435 seats in the House were up for election. At the time of the election, Democrats had a 232 to 198 majority over Republicans. The Libertarian Party had one seat. Four seats were vacant. Democrats defended 30 districts Donald Trump (R) won in 2016. Republicans defended five districts Hillary Clinton (D) won in 2016. As of the 2010 redistricting cycle, California's 50th Congressional District was located in the southern portion of the state and included much of San Diego County and portions of Riverside County.[4]

This race was one of 89 congressional races that were decided by 10 percent or less in 2020.

Grey.png For more information about the top-two primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, California's 50th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 45 46
Republican candidate Republican Party 52.7 54
Difference 7.7 8

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

California modified its absentee/mail-in and in-person voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Mail-in ballots were sent to all registered voters in the general election.
  • In-person voting: Counties were authorized to consolidate precincts and defer opening voting centers until the third day before the election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House California District 50

Darrell Issa defeated Ammar Campa-Najjar in the general election for U.S. House California District 50 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Darrell Issa
Darrell Issa (R)
 
54.0
 
195,521
Image of Ammar Campa-Najjar
Ammar Campa-Najjar (D)
 
46.0
 
166,869

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 362,390
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 50

The following candidates ran in the primary for U.S. House California District 50 on March 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Ammar Campa-Najjar
Ammar Campa-Najjar (D)
 
36.5
 
74,121
✔
Image of Darrell Issa
Darrell Issa (R)
 
23.1
 
47,036
Image of Carl DeMaio
Carl DeMaio (R)
 
19.9
 
40,347
Image of Brian Jones
Brian Jones (R)
 
10.6
 
21,495
Image of Marisa Calderon
Marisa Calderon (D) (Unofficially withdrew) Candidate Connection
 
5.7
 
11,557
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Nathan Wilkins (R)
 
2.1
 
4,276
Image of Jose Cortes
Jose Cortes (Peace and Freedom Party of California) Candidate Connection
 
0.9
 
1,821
Image of Helen Horvath
Helen Horvath (Independent) Candidate Connection
 
0.6
 
1,249
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Henry Ota (Independent)
 
0.4
 
908
Image of Lucinda Jahn
Lucinda Jahn (Independent) Candidate Connection
 
0.2
 
410

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 203,220
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates


District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+11, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 11 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made California's 50th Congressional District the 118th most Republican nationally.[5]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.93. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.93 points toward that party.[6]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[7] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[8] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Ammar Campa-Najjar Democratic Party $6,429,131 $6,428,683 $3,438 As of December 31, 2020
Darrell Issa Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[9]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[10][11][12]

Race ratings: California's 50th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 50th Congressional District candidates in California in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in California, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
California 50th Congressional District All candidates 2,000 Fixed number $1,740.00 1% of annual salary 12/6/2019 Source

Background

Duncan Hunter resigned from the seat on January 13, 2020. He pleaded guilty on December 3, 2019, to using campaign funds for personal expenses. Click here to learn more.

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) announced January 8, 2020, he would not schedule a special election, leaving the seat vacant until the winner of the November 2020 election took office January 3, 2021.[13]

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

There are no Pivot Counties in California. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won California with 61.7 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 31.6 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, California voted Republican 53.33 percent of the time and Democratic 43.33 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, California voted Democratic all five times. In 2016, California had 55 electoral votes, which was the most of any state. The 55 electoral votes were 10.2 percent of all 538 available electoral votes and were 20.4 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Assembly districts in California. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[14][15]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 58 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 38.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 66 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 40.3 points. Clinton won 11 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 22 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 12.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 14 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 13 points.


District election history

2018

See also: California's 50th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House California District 50

Incumbent Duncan Hunter defeated Ammar Campa-Najjar in the general election for U.S. House California District 50 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Duncan Hunter
Duncan Hunter (R)
 
51.7
 
134,362
Image of Ammar Campa-Najjar
Ammar Campa-Najjar (D)
 
48.3
 
125,448

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 259,810
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 50

The following candidates ran in the primary for U.S. House California District 50 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Duncan Hunter
Duncan Hunter (R)
 
47.4
 
69,563
✔
Image of Ammar Campa-Najjar
Ammar Campa-Najjar (D)
 
17.6
 
25,799
Image of Bill Wells
Bill Wells (R)
 
12.9
 
18,951
Image of Josh Butner
Josh Butner (D)
 
12.9
 
18,944
Image of Patrick Malloy
Patrick Malloy (D)
 
5.9
 
8,607
Image of Shamus Sayed
Shamus Sayed (R)
 
2.1
 
3,079
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Richard Kahle (Independent) Candidate Connection
 
1.2
 
1,714

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 146,657
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2016

See also: California's 50th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Duncan Hunter (R) defeated Patrick Malloy (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Hunter and Malloy defeated Scott Meisterlin (R), David Secor (D), and H. Fuji Shioura (independent) in the top-two primary on June 7, 2016.[16][17]

U.S. House, California District 50 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDuncan Hunter Incumbent 63.5% 179,937
     Democratic Patrick Malloy 36.5% 103,646
Total Votes 283,583
Source: California Secretary of State


U.S. House, California District 50 Primary, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDuncan Hunter Incumbent 56.5% 86,534
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngPatrick Malloy 21.8% 33,348
     Democratic David Secor 11.5% 17,590
     Republican Scott Meisterlin 6.8% 10,458
     Independent H. Fuji Shioura 3.5% 5,359
Total Votes 153,289
Source: California Secretary of State

2014

See also: California's 50th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 50th Congressional District of California held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Duncan Hunter (R) defeated James Kimber (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, California District 50 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDuncan Hunter Incumbent 71.2% 111,997
     Democratic James Kimber 28.8% 45,302
Total Votes 157,299
Source: California Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Carl DeMaio 2020 campaign website, "Carl DeMaio Statement: THANK YOU – and The Fight Continues!," accessed March 12, 2020
  2. ↑ The Washington Post, "Rep. Duncan Hunter will resign from Congress on Jan. 13," January 7, 2020
  3. ↑ NRCC, "McCarthy Announces 35 Candidates in First Round of Young Gun 'Contenders,'" February 19, 2020
  4. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  5. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  6. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  7. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  8. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  9. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  10. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  11. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  12. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  13. ↑ Roll Call, "California governor declines to call a special election to replace Duncan Hunter," January 8, 2020
  14. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  15. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  16. ↑ California Secretary of State, "Certified List of Candidates for Voter-Nominated Offices June 7, 2016, Presidential Primary Election," accessed April 4, 2016
  17. ↑ The New York Times, "California Primary Results," June 7, 2016


California's current delegation to the United States Congress
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Alex Padilla (D)
Adam Schiff (D)
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Young Kim (R)
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Dave Min (D)
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