California's 8th Congressional District election, 2018
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 22
- Early voting: Oct. 8 - Nov. 5
- Absentee voting deadline: Postmark Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: Yes
- Voter ID: No
- Poll times: 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.
Incumbent Paul Cook (R) defeated Tim Donnelly (R) in the 2018 general election for California's 8th Congressional District.
Cook was first elected to represent the district in 2012 and was last re-elected in 2016 by a margin of 25 percentage points, facing a Democratic opponent. The 2018 general election was Cook's first general election against a Republican opponent and the only U.S. House election in 2018 to feature two Republican candidates in the general election.[1]
Cook was endorsed by President Donald Trump (R), the National Border Patrol Council, and the National Rifle Association. Donnelly, a former Minuteman leader, was endorsed by Sen. Rand Paul (R) and Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk.
All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. Heading into the election, the Republican Party was in the majority holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven vacant seats. Democrats needed to win 23 GOP-held seats in 2018 to win control of the House. From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.
For more information about the top-two primary, click here.
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House California District 8
Incumbent Paul Cook defeated Tim Donnelly in the general election for U.S. House California District 8 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Paul Cook (R) | 60.0 | 102,415 |
 | Tim Donnelly (R) | 40.0 | 68,370 | |
| Total votes: 170,785 | |||
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Nonpartisan primary election
Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 8
Incumbent Paul Cook and Tim Donnelly defeated Marge Doyle, Rita Ramirez, and Ronald O'Donnell in the primary for U.S. House California District 8 on June 5, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Paul Cook (R) | 40.8 | 44,482 |
| ✔ | | Tim Donnelly (R) | 22.8 | 24,933 |
 | Marge Doyle (D) | 21.7 | 23,675 | |
 | Rita Ramirez (D) | 10.1 | 10,990 | |
 | Ronald O'Donnell (D) | 4.6 | 5,049 | |
| Total votes: 109,129 | |||
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Candidate profiles
Party: Republican
Incumbent: Yes
Political office: California's 8th Congressional District (Assumed office: 2013), California State Assembly (2007-2013)
Biography: Cook earned a B.S. in teaching from Southern Connecticut State University in 1966. After graduating Cook served as an infantry officer in the United States Marine Corps. He served in the Vietnam war with honors and retired from the Marine Corps as a colonel after a 26-year career. In 2006 Cook was elected to the California State Assembly, representing District 65 from until 2012. In 2012 Cook was elected to represent California's 8th Congressional District.[2]
- Cook campaigned with an emphasis on security. He supported President Trump's 2017 travel restrictions and highlighted a vote for the American SAFE Act of 2015.[3]
- Cook touted his vote for the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and said he would work to further lower taxes if re-elected.[3]
- Cook highlighted his membership with and consistent "A" rating from the National Rifle Association, and the organization's endorsement of his three previous Congressional campaigns. The best gun advocates are always responsible gun owners, he said.[3]
Party: Republican
Incumbent: No
Political office: California State Assembly District 33 (2011-2015)
Biography: Donnelly earned a B.A. from UC Irvine in 1989. In 2006 Donnelly became a member of the California Minutemen. In 2010 Donnelly was elected to the California State Assembly where he represented District 33 for two terms. In 2014 Donnelly ran for governor, losing in the primary.[4]
- Donnelly tried to revive the Minutemen movement to patrol for illegal immigration during the campaign and named building a wall on the southern border a priority on his campaign website.[5]
- Donnelly called for a full repeal of the Affordable Care Act and a removal of federal restrictions that he said protect insurance companies from out of state competition.[5]
- Donnelly called= for a reduction of the size and scope of the federal government, saying, "End the IRS, End the Dept of Education and End federal oversight via Common Core over local education."[5]
Polls
If you are aware of polls conducted in this race, please email us.
Campaign finance
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Cook | Republican Party | $978,469 | $1,409,426 | $140,257 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Tim Donnelly | Republican Party | $276,438 | $275,611 | $827 | As of December 31, 2018 |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
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Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[6]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[7][8][9]
| Race ratings: California's 8th Congressional District election, 2018 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | October 9, 2018 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season. | |||||||||
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+9, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 9 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made California's 8th Congressional District the 144th most Republican nationally.[10]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.97. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.97 points toward that party.[11]
Noteworthy endorsements
This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.
Click the links below for to see endorsement lists published on candidate campaign websites.
| Candidate endorsements | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Endorsement | Date | Cook | Donnelly |
| Donald Trump (R)[12] | September 4, 2018 | ✔ | |
| Sen. Rand Paul (R)[12] | August 21, 2018 | ✔ | |
Campaign advertisements
This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.
Tim Donnelly
Support
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Campaign themes
These were the policy positions stated in interviews or listed on the candidates' websites, if available.
Paul Cook
| “ |
Jobs and Economy Government doesn’t create jobs, the private sector does. Too often, government prevents job creation. The pathway to a strong economy is clear: a reduced tax burden, a simplified tax code, controlling wasteful government spending, and reducing government regulations and bureaucracy. My record shows action on all of these key points. That’s why I voted for the REINS Act, which requires Congressional approval of all new federal regulations with an economic impact of $100 million or more. I also support the President’s 2:1 ratio plan for regulations: for every new regulation, two must be repealed. That we’re exceeding this ratio – it stands at over 20:1 – is a positive sign, but we have much more to do. I also supported and voted for H.R. 2353, the Strengthening Career and Technical Education for the 21st Century Act. For too long, young people have been funneled into college pathways with few economic prospects while technical fields – many offering the possibility of great careers – were ignored. That must end. H.R. 2353 will help more Americans enter the workforce with the in-demand skills necessary for in-demand careers. Specifically, the bill empowers state and local leaders to take charge of technical education programs, it improves alignment with in-demand jobs, it increases transparency for funding, and it ensures a limited federal role.
Taxes and IRS America’s economic power is tremendous, but we were burdened by an outdated, oppressive tax system that encouraged investment overseas and hampered the job market for American workers. That’s why I voted for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which reduced taxes for nearly all Americans and made our nation a much more attractive place for job growth and business expansion. In fact, under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, a family of four here in California’s 8th Congressional District will see a tax savings of $1853 per year on average. By nearly doubling the “standard deduction” on your income taxes, 91% of residents here can take advantage of it: for individuals, the standard deduction increases to $12,000 from $6,350 and for married couples the standard deduction increases to $24,000 from $12,700. Passing this tax cut plan was the culmination of years of work, and the results are showing: already, millions of Americans have benefitted from new investment, bonuses, and hiring across the nation, and that’s on top of their reduced tax bills. As always, I stand for lower taxes, a simpler tax system, and no new taxes. I’m proud to have delivered on that promise, and I’m working this year to lower taxes further.
Sanctuary Cities and State California’s sanctuary cities and sanctuary state laws are an abomination of justice for American citizens and for vulnerable communities all over California. Politicians supporting these laws seek to score cheap political points while blood spills on the streets and dangerous criminals remain at large. The federal government must do all it can to force California and its cities to comply with federal law, abide by the US Constitution, and help remove criminals from our communities. I will do everything in my power to utilize all federal pressure points and mechanisms in order to force compliance. I commend the cities of Hesperia, Yucaipa, Barstow, and others for taking a stand against the ludicrous state law – SB 54 – which bans state and local law enforcement from cooperating with federal immigration officials – thus creating a safe haven for criminals – and I encourage other local governments to join suit. In Washington, I’m supporting bills to restore sanity and end sanctuary states and cities:
National Security As a combat veteran and as a retired Marine Corps infantry officer, I understand the importance of our military and military readiness. Faced with growing threats from North Korea, Iran, and Russia and the existing threat from ISIS, I have consistently opposed efforts to reduce American troop strength and underfund vital national defense capabilities. A strong military is necessary for a strong America. Under President Trump and Secretary of Defense James Mattis, we’ve benefited from a military freed the Washington-based globalists, apologists, and stubborn bureaucrats that had “veto” power over military actions under former President Obama. Our GOP-led Congress has aided in this fight by carefully increasing military resources and flexibility. As a result, ISIS lost 89 percent of its territory in 2017 alone. In Washington, I’m supporting bills that provide our military and our brave service members the tools they need to succeed:
Terrorism The San Bernardino Terrorist Attacks were a reminder that even though Osama bin Laden is dead, terrorists still seek to harm Americans. I voted to end former President Obama’s reckless policy of allowing un-vetted Syrian and Iraqi refugees to enter our country. As a member of the Subcommittee on Terrorism, Non-Proliferation, and Trade, I pushed to develop a robust national counter-terrorism strategy that places the needs of America and its citizens first. President Trump’s 2017 decision to pause travel and immigration to the United States from seven Middle East/North African countries was a reasonable policy action with a simple aim: no matter the circumstance on the world stage, the safety and needs of American citizens must come first.
Immigration and Border Security For America to be a strong nation, we must also have strong borders. For years, drugs, gangs, and violence have spread across our borders as too many politicians turned a blind eye to illegal immigration. Those who advocate for open borders are promoting the cause of drug cartels, terrorists, and human traffickers. Open-border advocates also do no favors for illegal immigrants with otherwise good intentions, as these individuals face extortion, assault, and robbery on their journey to the US border. Simply put: if people knew the border was closed, they would not try to cross it. Our priority must be to secure our borders and end illegal immigration to the United States. I support fully funding the Border Patrol, which is down some 2000 agents nationwide, as it was starved of resources intentionally by the Obama administration. Finally, I support a better physical barrier – a wall – and better electronic surveillance. I’ve voted for all of these priorities:
Veterans After serving 26 years in the Marine Corps, I vowed to make veterans and military families a top priority in public office. I’ve never wavered in that commitment. In my time serving you in Congress, I’ve taken action by supporting the long-overdue reforms to the federal Veterans Administration, which is responsible for many programs serving our veterans – most importantly, through healthcare services. I’ve also made it a priority to improve educational opportunities for veterans and improve job prospects for the military spouses.
Crime and Safety Law-abiding citizens – particularly the most vulnerable among us – deserve all due protections under law and from our law enforcement. I’ve worked tirelessly for years to help bring to justice child predators, scammers, terrorists, and other criminals. The safety of our families and our communities from threats both foreign and domestic is my top priority in Congress. With the threat of criminals and terrorism, I also know that it’s more important than ever to stand with law enforcement in keeping our communities safe. Rather than demonizing law enforcement, we should work with them to make sure they have the resources and training necessary to do their jobs effectively. The federal government should support local law enforcement.
Second Amendment and Gun Rights The Second Amendment is a constitutional right and should not be infringed. I’m a member of the National Rifle Association and have consistently received an ‘A’ rating from them. I was proud to receive the endorsement of the NRA in my 2012, 2014, and 2016 elections. I’m also a proud combat veteran, trained and proficient in the use of handguns and rifles. I know firsthand their deadly force, and I know the attention and respect they deserve. The best gun advocates are always responsible gun owners.
Life I’m pro-life, and I always will be. I also support requiring parental notification for minors seeking abortion. A minor contemplating an abortion needs the moral advice of a parent, not only for the sake of the unborn but for her sake as well. I oppose federal funding of Planned Parenthood.
Healthcare Our healthcare system has long required major changes, and that need has only intensified in recent years, as costs have skyrocketed for Americans. That’s why I’m dedicated to lowering costs through market-based changes that allow Americans to find affordable plans for individual needs. Additionally, we have a duty to our seniors who have spent their lives paying into Medicare to ensure that it remains solvent and affordable.
Government Spending My view on government spending is simple: we need fiscal responsibility. We saw it for eight years as former President Obama indulged in welfare programs and the expansion of unnecessary bureaucracies, all while starving our military. Government spending should first and foremost keep us safe, provide protections for seniors and veterans, and create the infrastructure necessary for a strong economy. Overall, our spending priorities suffered until recently. We accomplished a lot during the Trump administration, but there’s more work to do. Specifically, we must make cuts in spending that will reduce the budget deficit and put us on a path to a balanced budget. I’ve supported measures doing just that:
Public Lands Over 90% of California’s Eighth Congressional District is federal land. I’ve consistently opposed efforts to restrict public access to public land, and I’ve fought to turn over more unneeded federal land to our cities and counties. All public land should have reasonable protections in place for hunting, mining, off-roading and other uses.
Education As a former educator, I support parental involvement and local control in education. That’s why I’m opposed to Common Core. Parents and the local schools that serve our communities should design curriculum, not bureaucrats in Washington.
|
” |
| —Paul Cook Campaign[14] | ||
Tim Donnelly
| “ |
1. Build the Wall. Secure the Border, Enforce all immigration laws without favoritism and restore our national sovereignty and the rule of law. President Reagan had it right: 'A nation without borders isn't a nation.' Unchecked illegal immigration has cost California taxpayers over $20 Billion per year, diverting resources that could go to taking better care of our veterans. But the real cost is the lost lives at the hands of illegal alien criminals and gang members who prey on the community and enjoy 'Sanctuary' status in California due to the policies of Gov. Jerry Brown and the Democrat-dominated state government. As a Congressman, I will fight to defund so-called 'Sanctuary States' and will not rest until our communities become sanctuaries for law-abiding American citizens again. 2. Full Repeal of ObamaCare. This disaster of a program has driven up the cost of health insurance in order to provide a socialistic safety net to millions, who have their policies subsidized at the expense of citizens who work. ObamaCare must be fully repealed, the government must relinquish health care back to the free market, then we need to remove restrictions and allow insurance companies to compete across state lines. Competition will drive down costs, and increase quality. 3. Incentive Job Creation by cutting regulations and pushing for lower tax rates across the board for everyone who pays taxes and contributes to the economy. Two additional things must be done to spur job growth by the private sector: 1) Reform entitlements so that work, not welfare becomes the more profitable choice. 2) Shrink Government by introducing the same efficiencies and technology that have transformed every aspect of the private sector, cutting the dependency on human Every time it's been tried, cutting tax rates has always spurred economic growth and job creation. I will not only oppose all tax increases, but I will work to lower the tax burden on every Californian. 4. Defend our inalienable, God-given, natural rights: that of life (the unborn and elderly), liberty (Self Defense and the Second Amendment) and property (Private Property Rights) from Government infringement. Life: I believe that life begins at conception, and that it is the duty of our government to protect all life. As your Represenative, I will vote to defund Planned Parenthood, and will never give my vote to an Omnibus bill containing any funding for Planned Parenthood. 5. Take care of our Veterans. This starts with respect. We live in the greatest country on earth, thanks to their sacrifice. We must prioritize Veterans healthcare and treat them better than illegal aliens. That starts with reforming the VA, and allowing Veterans to see private non-VA doctors in order to expedite and improve their care rather than sentence them to long wait times in a failed system. As Americans we must acknowledge the traumatic brain injuries (TBI) that afflict many of those who return home, seemingly healthy and whole, but who are left to fight this hidden killer alone. And then we must treat them accordingly as we would like to see ourselves or a family member treated. Making these changes is a starting point to keeping our promises to those willing to sacrifice everything for our freedom. In order to cover additional costs, we need to eliminate all benefits paid by taxpayers for illegal aliens, cut wasteful government departments, bureaucracy, and reduce the size and scope of government to a Constitutional footprint. 6. Stand with the President against Islamic Terrorism. I fully support President Trump's travel ban and believe it should be enforced. At present we have no way to vet immigrants from Muslim countries to determine who are radicalized with the intent to slaughter innocent Americans in the name of Allah. Rather than voting to fund the Obama refugee program like my opponent did, I believe it should be defunded and ended completely. After San Bernardino, I will never apologize or be politically correct about the threat that took the life of the father of two boys who play on my son's football team. This is deeply personal to me, and I will never be silent no matter what the outcry from the leftist enablers of Radical Islam within our Federal Government. Block immigration from all terror-sponsoring or terror-tolerating countries. There is no Constitutional right to come to the United States. All Mosques which teach jihad, or embrace the radical sects, should be on watch by the FBI and other national security agencies, infiltrated for the purpose of preventing another San Bernardino type terrorist attack. (One of my neighbors, a 37-year old father of 6, who's sons played football on my son's team. This is deeply personal to me.) We should block the implementation of Sharia Law and not grant Muslims any special treatment within any of our institutions. Once granted, those special exemptions are impossible to undo. The 1st Amendment guarantees freedom "of" religion, not special treatment of any one faith. 7. Reduce the size and scope of the Federal Government. End the IRS, End the Dept of Education and End federal oversight via Common Core over local education. The Founders intended for us to rule ourselves—instead of having multiple layers of bureaucracy attempting to micromanage our lives. By allowing the mission of government to creep so quietly into so many aspects of our lives, we are witnessing the slow, painful death of our Liberty and our natural, God-given rights. When Government expands, freedom must necessarily contract. What our Federal Government must do is that which is enumerated in the Constitution and nothing more. Mankind has always shown an inordinate capacity to abuse power. The Founders reacted to this human failing, by splitting the power into distinct branches with specifically enumerated duties. This keeps any one branch from becoming "king". And the branches of gov't counterbalance each other, the design of which was to keep each branch in check. 8. Support parental rights to make medical decisions for their children rather than government mandates. As Americans, one thing we cherish above all is liberty and the freedom to make medical decisions for ourselves and our children, rather than have government make them for us. God gave children to parents, not the state. I will oppose any and all attempts by the Federal Government to come between you and your child. A lot of people in the media characterize me as 'anti-vaccination', but if I am, that’s news to me—and my kids. I vaccinated my boys. All of them. But only after reading all the pro’s and cons. Perhaps making an informed choice for the health of my children is ‘extreme’ to some people, I don’t know, but on that issue I’m Pro-Choice. During my time in the Assembly, and for a few years after, I engaged in a battle to protect the very limited freedom that Californians had to ‘opt out’ of some or all vaccinations. I don’t believe the government should be the final say on what goes into a child’s body; that right belongs to his/her parents. California achieved some of the highest vaccination rates in the country, while also respecting the right of individuals, allowing medical, and personal belief exemptions. Now, that delicate balance has been destroyed by the legislation I fought against and the freedom to make that choice for yourself and your child has been outlawed. 9.Stand for the first amendment and end censorship in silicon valley. Increasingly, we see the rise of new monopolies in Silicon Valley conglomerates control most of digital and social media. Companies like Twitter, Google, Facebook, Apple, etc. are openly political and use their incredible reach to censor and silence any speech they don’t like. Free Speech rights and the First Amendment must be protected everywhere—even in this new digital space. On August 6th, 2018, Big Tech including Apple, Google, Facebook, YouTube and Spotify colluded to ban speech they don't like. This is way beyond a fight over fake community standards (which the hateful left somehow never violates), nor is it strictly about #FreeSpeech, since these tech titans are technically 'private companies' which are publicly owned by shareholders. There's something much more sinister at play, straight out of Orwell's 1984. Conservatives are being unpersonned. Now, you may not agree with them. That's not the point. When the platform for '#freespeech' is effectively owned and controlled by a handful of monolithic corporations, your right to '#freespeech' can be 'vaporized' for all intents and purposes. That's because they have the unilateral power to 'de-platform' someone they don't agree with, essentially erasing their footprint from the digital 'public square'. The First Amendment specifically protects the power of the press to be the watchdog of government, but who's watching the watchdog and who can control it when it becomes a monster? And those targeted are naturally those who've become the biggest threat to the collusion of the media and the political establishment. That means only conservatives, constitutionalists and supporters of President Trump. 10.Land Use/Federal Control: The Federal government claims "ownership" of close to half of our land in California (45.8%), something the framers of the Constitution never could have envisioned. Federal land use in the West and in California, in particular, needs to be re-evaluated in the interests of citizens of each state. By converting tracts of Federal land back to state control, the land could potentially be used for productive purposes, and better serve the interests of the people of California, and the 8th District. 11. Pro-Life: I’m one hundred percent Pro-Life! I believe life is a gift from God, and begins at conception. I will be a co-author on the Heartbeat Protection Act (HR 490), and I’ll never vote to give one Red Cent of taxpayer money to Planned Parenthood. [13] |
” |
| —Tim Donnelly for Congress[5] | ||
Social media
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Paul Cook 
Tim Donnelly
U.S. House election without a Democratic candidate
California's 8th Congressional District was one of three U.S. House districts where a Democrat did not run in 2018. There were 38 districts where a Republican did not run.
For more on U.S. House seats with only one major party candidate, visit these pages:
- U.S. House elections without a Democratic or Republican candidate, 2018
- U.S. House elections without a Democratic or Republican candidate, 1920-2018
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
There are no Pivot Counties in California. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won California with 61.7 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 31.6 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, California voted Republican 53.33 percent of the time and Democratic 43.33 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, California voted Democratic all five times. In 2016, California had 55 electoral votes, which was the most of any state. The 55 electoral votes were 10.2 percent of all 538 available electoral votes and were 20.4 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election.
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Assembly districts in California. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[15][16]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 58 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 38.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 66 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 40.3 points. Clinton won 11 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 22 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 12.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 14 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 13 points. |
| 2016 Presidential Results by State Assembly District | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 39.63% | 57.31% | R+17.7 | 36.09% | 56.75% | R+20.7 | R |
| 2 | 64.68% | 30.51% | D+34.2 | 62.20% | 28.98% | D+33.2 | D |
| 3 | 42.41% | 54.46% | R+12.1 | 39.47% | 53.31% | R+13.8 | R |
| 4 | 63.16% | 33.86% | D+29.3 | 63.03% | 29.95% | D+33.1 | D |
| 5 | 41.27% | 55.92% | R+14.7 | 38.51% | 54.85% | R+16.3 | R |
| 6 | 38.59% | 59.09% | R+20.5 | 41.17% | 52.02% | R+10.9 | R |
| 7 | 67.59% | 29.61% | D+38 | 67.63% | 25.69% | D+41.9 | D |
| 8 | 51.72% | 45.62% | D+6.1 | 51.77% | 41.03% | D+10.7 | D |
| 9 | 60.56% | 37.52% | D+23 | 61.47% | 32.89% | D+28.6 | D |
| 10 | 73.76% | 23.28% | D+50.5 | 75.65% | 17.96% | D+57.7 | D |
| 11 | 60.96% | 36.87% | D+24.1 | 58.86% | 35.17% | D+23.7 | D |
| 12 | 45.19% | 52.50% | R+7.3 | 43.11% | 51.05% | R+7.9 | R |
| 13 | 64.23% | 33.88% | D+30.4 | 62.97% | 31.79% | D+31.2 | D |
| 14 | 68.80% | 28.72% | D+40.1 | 69.55% | 24.47% | D+45.1 | D |
| 15 | 86.82% | 9.56% | D+77.3 | 87.39% | 7.04% | D+80.4 | D |
| 16 | 57.74% | 40.10% | D+17.6 | 64.47% | 29.23% | D+35.2 | R |
| 17 | 87.07% | 9.36% | D+77.7 | 88.12% | 6.95% | D+81.2 | D |
| 18 | 86.89% | 10.23% | D+76.7 | 85.89% | 8.44% | D+77.5 | D |
| 19 | 78.94% | 18.38% | D+60.6 | 81.63% | 13.34% | D+68.3 | D |
| 20 | 75.74% | 22.15% | D+53.6 | 75.52% | 19.12% | D+56.4 | D |
| 21 | 55.61% | 42.03% | D+13.6 | 54.63% | 39.46% | D+15.2 | D |
| 22 | 71.43% | 26.31% | D+45.1 | 75.16% | 19.75% | D+55.4 | D |
| 23 | 43.46% | 54.71% | R+11.2 | 43.95% | 50.78% | R+6.8 | R |
| 24 | 72.16% | 24.96% | D+47.2 | 78.19% | 15.93% | D+62.3 | D |
| 25 | 72.40% | 25.26% | D+47.1 | 73.61% | 20.90% | D+52.7 | D |
| 26 | 41.15% | 56.68% | R+15.5 | 41.54% | 52.93% | R+11.4 | R |
| 27 | 76.36% | 21.54% | D+54.8 | 77.76% | 17.29% | D+60.5 | D |
| 28 | 66.64% | 30.77% | D+35.9 | 70.63% | 23.08% | D+47.6 | D |
| 29 | 69.95% | 26.66% | D+43.3 | 70.00% | 22.96% | D+47 | D |
| 30 | 66.99% | 30.86% | D+36.1 | 66.70% | 27.32% | D+39.4 | D |
| 31 | 61.98% | 36.21% | D+25.8 | 62.13% | 32.93% | D+29.2 | D |
| 32 | 56.20% | 41.81% | D+14.4 | 56.50% | 37.98% | D+18.5 | D |
| 33 | 41.80% | 55.51% | R+13.7 | 40.02% | 54.61% | R+14.6 | R |
| 34 | 33.96% | 63.85% | R+29.9 | 34.07% | 60.21% | R+26.1 | R |
| 35 | 47.82% | 49.42% | R+1.6 | 49.57% | 43.43% | D+6.1 | R |
| 36 | 48.79% | 48.48% | D+0.3 | 49.94% | 43.86% | D+6.1 | R |
| 37 | 60.97% | 36.28% | D+24.7 | 64.27% | 29.21% | D+35.1 | D |
| 38 | 46.73% | 50.84% | R+4.1 | 49.64% | 44.39% | D+5.2 | R |
| 39 | 73.75% | 23.67% | D+50.1 | 74.64% | 19.80% | D+54.8 | D |
| 40 | 53.14% | 44.72% | D+8.4 | 54.08% | 40.01% | D+14.1 | R |
| 41 | 59.74% | 37.72% | D+22 | 62.82% | 31.27% | D+31.5 | D |
| 42 | 44.98% | 52.93% | R+7.9 | 45.61% | 49.70% | R+4.1 | R |
| 43 | 67.35% | 29.62% | D+37.7 | 68.94% | 25.45% | D+43.5 | D |
| 44 | 52.37% | 45.51% | D+6.9 | 57.12% | 36.99% | D+20.1 | D |
| 45 | 63.46% | 34.12% | D+29.3 | 67.36% | 27.39% | D+40 | D |
| 46 | 73.73% | 23.65% | D+50.1 | 76.20% | 18.48% | D+57.7 | D |
| 47 | 71.49% | 26.54% | D+44.9 | 70.10% | 24.80% | D+45.3 | D |
| 48 | 64.08% | 33.44% | D+30.6 | 65.60% | 28.50% | D+37.1 | D |
| 49 | 64.69% | 33.26% | D+31.4 | 67.57% | 27.17% | D+40.4 | D |
| 50 | 70.79% | 26.51% | D+44.3 | 76.72% | 18.33% | D+58.4 | D |
| 51 | 83.48% | 13.50% | D+70 | 84.05% | 10.19% | D+73.9 | D |
| 52 | 65.01% | 32.92% | D+32.1 | 65.78% | 28.71% | D+37.1 | D |
| 53 | 84.64% | 12.59% | D+72 | 84.83% | 9.63% | D+75.2 | D |
| 54 | 83.62% | 13.88% | D+69.7 | 85.15% | 10.12% | D+75 | D |
| 55 | 45.77% | 52.23% | R+6.5 | 49.92% | 44.61% | D+5.3 | R |
| 56 | 62.14% | 36.26% | D+25.9 | 64.21% | 31.24% | D+33 | D |
| 57 | 63.71% | 34.01% | D+29.7 | 65.92% | 28.39% | D+37.5 | D |
| 58 | 70.24% | 27.80% | D+42.4 | 72.54% | 22.26% | D+50.3 | D |
| 59 | 93.24% | 5.19% | D+88 | 90.70% | 5.09% | D+85.6 | D |
| 60 | 51.32% | 46.31% | D+5 | 52.48% | 41.97% | D+10.5 | D |
| 61 | 63.43% | 34.55% | D+28.9 | 62.47% | 31.62% | D+30.9 | D |
| 62 | 80.81% | 17.00% | D+63.8 | 82.05% | 13.06% | D+69 | D |
| 63 | 76.06% | 21.73% | D+54.3 | 77.35% | 17.38% | D+60 | D |
| 64 | 88.74% | 9.98% | D+78.8 | 86.21% | 9.61% | D+76.6 | D |
| 65 | 51.90% | 45.68% | D+6.2 | 56.73% | 37.28% | D+19.4 | D |
| 66 | 54.18% | 43.24% | D+10.9 | 59.97% | 33.60% | D+26.4 | D |
| 67 | 39.61% | 58.33% | R+18.7 | 38.89% | 55.94% | R+17.1 | R |
| 68 | 42.55% | 55.12% | R+12.6 | 49.42% | 44.58% | D+4.8 | R |
| 69 | 67.37% | 30.30% | D+37.1 | 71.94% | 22.33% | D+49.6 | D |
| 70 | 67.38% | 29.93% | D+37.5 | 68.13% | 25.09% | D+43 | D |
| 71 | 38.47% | 59.51% | R+21 | 38.19% | 56.26% | R+18.1 | R |
| 72 | 46.71% | 51.06% | R+4.4 | 51.40% | 43.13% | D+8.3 | R |
| 73 | 38.68% | 59.36% | R+20.7 | 43.89% | 50.38% | R+6.5 | R |
| 74 | 45.14% | 52.42% | R+7.3 | 50.71% | 43.29% | D+7.4 | R |
| 75 | 39.42% | 58.50% | R+19.1 | 43.22% | 50.68% | R+7.5 | R |
| 76 | 48.76% | 49.04% | R+0.3 | 53.11% | 40.38% | D+12.7 | R |
| 77 | 48.25% | 49.83% | R+1.6 | 55.16% | 38.94% | D+16.2 | R |
| 78 | 63.15% | 34.08% | D+29.1 | 67.48% | 25.85% | D+41.6 | D |
| 79 | 61.21% | 36.91% | D+24.3 | 64.24% | 30.04% | D+34.2 | D |
| 80 | 69.47% | 28.67% | D+40.8 | 73.15% | 21.34% | D+51.8 | D |
| Total | 60.35% | 37.19% | D+23.2 | 62.25% | 31.89% | D+30.4 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
District history
2016
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Paul Cook (R) defeated Rita Ramirez (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Cook and Ramirez defeated Tim Donnelly (R), Roger LaPlante (D), and John Pinkerton (D) in the top-two primary on June 7, 2016. The general election took place on November 8, 2016.[17][18][19]
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  Paul Cook Incumbent |
62.3% | 136,972 | |
| Democratic | Rita Ramirez | 37.7% | 83,035 | |
| Total Votes | 220,007 | |||
| Source: California Secretary of State | ||||
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |
Paul Cook Incumbent |
42% | 50,425 | |
| Democratic | Rita Ramirez |
21.9% | 26,325 | |
| Republican | Tim Donnelly | 20.7% | 24,886 | |
| Democratic | John Pinkerton | 9.8% | 11,780 | |
| Democratic | Roger LaPlante | 5.5% | 6,661 | |
| Total Votes | 120,077 | |||
| Source: California Secretary of State |
||||
2014
The 8th Congressional District of California held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Paul Cook (R) defeated Bob Conaway (D) in the general election.
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Paul Cook Incumbent |
67.6% | 77,480 | |
| Democratic | Bob Conaway | 32.4% | 37,056 | |
| Total Votes | 114,536 | |||
| Source: California Secretary of State | ||||
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in California heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Following the 2016 elections, Democrats held both U.S. Senate seats in California.
- Democrats held 39 of 53 U.S. House seats in California.
State executives
- As of May 2018, Democrats held seven of 10 state executive positions and the remaining three positions were officially nonpartisan.
- The governor of California was Democrat Jerry Brown.
State legislature
- Democrats controlled both chambers of the California State Legislature. They had a 55-25 majority in the state Assembly and a 27-13 majority in the state Senate.
Trifecta status
- California was a state government trifecta, meaning that Democrats held the governorship and majorities in the state house and state senate.
2018 elections
- See also: California elections, 2018
California held elections for the following positions in 2018:
- 1 Senate seat
- 53 U.S. House seats
- Governor
- Seven other state executive positions
- 20 of 40 state Senate seats
- 80 state Assembly seats
- Two state Supreme Court justices
- 35 state Court of Appeals judges
- Local trial court judges
- School board members
Demographics
| Demographic data for California | ||
|---|---|---|
| California | U.S. | |
| Total population: | 38,993,940 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 155,779 | 3,531,905 |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 61.8% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 5.9% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 13.7% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 4.5% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 38.4% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 81.8% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 31.4% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $61,818 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 18.2% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in California. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. | ||
As of July 2016, California had a population of approximately 39,000,000 people, with its three largest cities being Los Angeles (pop. est. 4.0 million), San Diego (pop. est. 1.4 million), and San Jose (pop. est. 1 million).[20][21]
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in California from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the California Secretary of State.
Historical elections
Presidential elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in California every year from 2000 to 2016.
| Election results (President of the United States), California 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 |  Hillary Clinton |
61.7% | Donald Trump |
31.6% | 30.1% |
| 2012 | Barack Obama |
60.2% | Mitt Romney |
37.1% | 23.1% |
| 2008 | Barack Obama |
61.1% | John McCain |
37% | 24.1% |
| 2004 | John Kerry |
54.4% | George W. Bush |
44.4% | 10% |
| 2000 | Al Gore |
53.5% | George W. Bush |
41.7% | 11.8% |
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in California from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
| Election results (U.S. Senator), California 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | Kamala Harris |
61.6% | Loretta Sanchez |
38.4% | 23.2% |
| 2012 | Dianne Feinstein |
62.5% | Elizabeth Emken |
37.5% | 25% |
| 2010 | Barbara Boxer |
52.2% | Carly Fiorina |
42.2% | 10% |
| 2006 | Dianne Feinstein |
59.5% | Richard Mountjoy |
35.1% | 24.4% |
| 2004 | Barbara Boxer |
57.8% | Bill Jones |
37.8% | 20% |
| 2000 | Dianne Feinstein |
55.9% | Tom Campbell |
36.6% | 19.3% |
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in California.
| Election results (Governor), California 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2014 | Jerry Brown |
60% | Neel Kashkari |
40% | 20% |
| 2010 | Jerry Brown |
53.8% | Meg Whitman |
40.9% | 12.9% |
| 2006 | Arnold Schwarzenegger |
55.9% | Phil Angelides |
39.0% | 16.9% |
| 2002 | Gray Davis |
47.3% | Bill Simon |
42.4% | 4.9% |
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent California in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
| Congressional delegation, California 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Democrats | Democrats (%) | Republicans | Republicans (%) | Balance of power |
| 2016 | 39 |
73.5% | 14 |
26.4% | D+25 |
| 2014 | 39 |
73.5% | 14 |
26.4% | D+25 |
| 2012 | 38 |
71.7% | 15 |
28.3% | D+23 |
| 2010 | 34 |
64.1% | 19 |
35.8% | D+15 |
| 2008 | 34 |
64.1% | 19 |
35.8% | D+15 |
| 2006 | 34 |
64.1% | 19 |
35.8% | D+15 |
| 2004 | 33 |
62.3% | 20 |
37.7% | D+13 |
| 2002 | 33 |
62.3% | 20 |
37.7% | D+13 |
| 2000 | 32 |
61.5% | 20 |
38.5% | D+12 |
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
California Party Control: 1992-2025
Twenty years with Democratic trifectas • No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| Senate | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| Assembly | D | D | D | S | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
See also
- California's 8th Congressional District election (June 5, 2018 top-two primary)
- United States House of Representatives elections in California, 2018
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ The Weekly Standard, "In California’s 8th, both candidates are on the right. But which is Trumpier?" October 8, 2018
- ↑ Elect Paul Cook, "Meet Colonel Paul Cook," accessed September 18, 2018
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 "Issues," accessed September 18, 2018
- ↑ Donnelly for Congress, "About," accessed September 18, 2018
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 Donnelly for Congress, "Principles," accessed September 18, 2018
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ 12.0 12.1 Politico, "Conservative activists: Trump was ‘tricked’ into Calif. endorsement," September 9, 2018
- ↑ 13.0 13.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
- ↑ Join Paul Cook, "Issues," accessed September 18, 2018
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ California Secretary of State, "Certified List of Candidates for Voter-Nominated Offices June 7, 2016, Presidential Primary Election," accessed April 4, 2016
- ↑ The New York Times, "California Primary Results," June 7, 2016
- ↑ California Secretary of State, "Statement of Vote," June 7, 2016
- ↑ California Demographics, "California Cities by Population," accessed April 2, 2018
- ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts California," accessed April 2, 2018
