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California's 8th Congressional District election, 2020 (March 3 top-two primary)
- Primary date: March 3
- Primary type: Top-two
- Registration deadline(s): Feb. 18
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: Yes
- Early voting starts: Varies locally
- Absentee/mail voting deadline(s): March 3 (postmarked); March 6 (received)
- Voter ID: No ID
- Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
A top-two primary took place on March 3, 2020, in California's 8th Congressional District to determine which two candidates would run in the district's general election on November 3, 2020.
Jay Obernolte and Chris Bubser advanced from the primary for U.S. House California District 8.
| Candidate filing deadline | Primary election | General election |
|---|---|---|
Heading into the election, the incumbent was Paul Cook (Republican), who was first elected in 2012.
California uses a top-two primary system, in which all candidates appear on the same ballot. The top two vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, move on to the general election. In states that do not use a top-two system, all parties are usually able to put forward a candidate for the general election if they choose to.[1][2]
Unlike the top-two format used in some states (Louisiana and Georgia special elections for example), a general election between the top-two candidates in California occurs regardless of whether the top candidate received 50% of the vote in the first round of elections.
As of June 2025, California was one of five states to use a top-two primary system, or a variation of the top-two system. See here for more information.
For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.
This page focuses on California's 8th Congressional District's top-two primary. For more in-depth information on the district's general election, see the following page:
Candidates and election results
Nonpartisan primary election
Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 8
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Jay Obernolte (R) | 34.9 | 50,677 |
| ✔ |  | Chris Bubser (D) | 28.7 | 41,595 |
 | Tim Donnelly (R) | 20.7 | 30,079 | |
 | Bob Conaway (D) | 6.2 | 9,053 | |
 | Jeff Esmus (Independent)  | 2.8 | 4,042 | |
 | James Ellars (D) | 2.7 | 3,948 | |
 | Jeremy Staat (R) | 1.6 | 2,288 | |
| Jerry Laws (R) | 1.4 | 2,010 | ||
| Justin David Whitehead (R) | 0.9 | 1,305 | ||
 | Jacquetta Green (Unaffiliated) (Write-in) | 0.0 | 11 | |
| Total votes: 145,008 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Paul Cook (R)
- Peter Mathisen (Nonpartisan)
- Nathan Charette (R)
- Destiny Lovato (R)
Candidate profiles
This section includes candidate profiles created in one of two ways. Either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey or Ballotpedia staff created a profile after identifying the candidate as noteworthy.[3] Ballotpedia staff compiled profiles based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements.
Party: Democratic Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office: None
Submitted Biography: "I am James Ellars. I was born in Victorville, grew up in Hesperia and currently live in Apple Valley. I come from a working-class family, and I and the fourth of six children. I want to work for the people and create a better future for my wife and two children. "
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House California District 8 in 2020.
Party: Independent
Incumbent: No
Political Office: None
Submitted Biography: "I am Jeff Esmus, father, teacher, and ordinary citizen. My home is in Hesperia, California, located in the heart of California's District 8. My son attends a local public school. For many years I worked as a mechanic and now I teach students the employability skills they need to find careers of their own. Out of high school I worked full-time as a warehouse worker while attending college classes to earn more for my family as a mechanic. Today I teach those same values to my students; work hard and invest in yourself to gain access to opportunity. "
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House California District 8 in 2020.
Party: Unaffiliated
Incumbent: No
Political Office: None
Submitted Biography: "I am an entrepreneur from Inland Empire who has seen failure striving to make ends meet, and has achieved success through entrepreneurship and perseverance. I graduated from high school with honors and went on to take courses in Business Law at Riverside Community College and learned the importance of investing early on in life and that true economic success is built on self investment through education."
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House California District 8 in 2020.
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+9, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 9 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made California's 8th Congressional District the 144th most Republican nationally.[4]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.97. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.97 points toward that party.[5]
Campaign finance
This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[6] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[7] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Bubser | Democratic Party | $1,878,106 | $1,876,718 | $1,388 | As of December 31, 2020 |
| Bob Conaway | Democratic Party | $7,471 | $7,496 | $-26 | As of February 12, 2020 |
| James Ellars | Democratic Party | $2,056 | $1,890 | $166 | As of December 31, 2019 |
| Tim Donnelly | Republican Party | $212,020 | $212,847 | $0 | As of March 31, 2020 |
| Jerry Laws | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Jay Obernolte | Republican Party | $2,028,339 | $1,958,786 | $69,583 | As of December 31, 2020 |
| Jeremy Staat | Republican Party | $125,798 | $123,357 | $201 | As of December 31, 2020 |
| Justin David Whitehead | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Jacquetta Green | Unaffiliated | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Jeff Esmus | Independent | $21,000 | $12,480 | $8,520 | As of March 31, 2020 |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
|||||
General election race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]
| Race ratings: California's 8th Congressional District election, 2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 3, 2020 | October 27, 2020 | October 20, 2020 | October 13, 2020 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season. | |||||||||
See also
- California's 8th Congressional District election, 2020
- United States House elections in California, 2020 (March 3 top-two primaries)
- United States House Democratic Party primaries, 2020
- United States House Republican Party primaries, 2020
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2020
- U.S. House battlegrounds, 2020
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "State Primary Election Types," accessed August 13, 2024
- ↑ California Secretary of State, "Primary Elections in California," accessed August 13, 2024
- ↑ Candidate Connection surveys completed before September 26, 2019, were not used to generate candidate profiles. In battleground primaries, Ballotpedia based its selection of noteworthy candidates on polling, fundraising, and noteworthy endorsements. In battleground general elections, all major party candidates and any other candidates with the potential to impact the outcome of the race were included.
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
