Help us improve in just 2 minutes—share your thoughts in our reader survey.

California's 45th Congressional District election, 2018

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search


2020 →
← 2016
California's 45th Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Top-two primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 9, 2018
Primary: June 5, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Mimi Walters (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in California
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+3
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Inside Elections: Toss-up
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
California's 45th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th • 19th • 20th • 21st • 22nd • 23rd • 24th • 25th • 26th • 27th • 28th • 29th • 30th • 31st • 32nd • 33rd • 34th • 35th • 36th • 37th • 38th • 39th • 40th • 41st • 42nd • 43rd • 44th • 45th • 46th • 47th • 48th • 49th • 50th • 51st • 52nd • 53rd
California elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Katie Porter (D) defeated incumbent Rep. Mimi Walters (R) in the election for California's 45th Congressional District on November 6, 2018.

All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party gained a net total of 40 seats, winning control of the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the U.S. House in the 116th Congress. Heading into the election, the Republican Party was in the majority holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven vacant seats. Democrats needed to win 23 GOP-held seats in 2018 to win control of the House. From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.

This district was one of 25 Republican-held U.S. House districts that Hillary Clinton (D) won in the 2016 presidential election, and it was listed as one of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's initial targets in 2018.[1] A Republican had represented the district since its inception in 1983. Election forecasters expected this to be a competitive general election. In the top-two primary, Walters received 51.66 percent of the vote, while Porter received 20.29 percent.

Grey.png For more information about the top-two primary, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House California District 45

Katie Porter defeated incumbent Mimi Walters in the general election for U.S. House California District 45 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Katie Porter
Katie Porter (D) Candidate Connection
 
52.1
 
158,906
Image of Mimi Walters
Mimi Walters (R)
 
47.9
 
146,383

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 305,289
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 45

The following candidates ran in the primary for U.S. House California District 45 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mimi Walters
Mimi Walters (R)
 
51.7
 
86,764
✔
Image of Katie Porter
Katie Porter (D) Candidate Connection
 
20.3
 
34,078
Image of Dave Min
Dave Min (D)
 
17.8
 
29,979
Image of Brian Forde
Brian Forde (D)
 
6.0
 
10,107
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
John Graham (Independent)
 
2.3
 
3,817
Image of Kia Hamadanchy
Kia Hamadanchy (D)
 
1.9
 
3,212

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 167,957
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Candidate profiles

See also: Editorial approach to writing about key campaign messages


Katie Porter, law professor
Katie Porter.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Democratic

Incumbent: No

Political office: None

Biography: Porter received a bachelor's degree from Yale University and a J.D. from Harvard Law School. Her professional experience includes serving as a law professor at the University of California, Irvine, and working as a consumer protection attorney. In 2012, she worked with then-California Attorney General Kamala Harris on banking oversight.[2]

Key messages
  • Porter said she ran for Congress "to hold Donald Trump and the powerful special interests in Washington accountable on behalf of Orange County families."[3]
  • Porter's campaign emphasized her support for Bernie Sanders' Medicare for All healthcare program, a ban of assault-style weapons, and overturning the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017.[4]




Mimi Walters, U.S. Representative
Mimi Walters.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Republican

Incumbent: Yes

Political office: U.S. Representative (Assumed office: 2015), California State Senate (2005-2008), Mayor of Laguna Niguel (2000-2004), Laguna Niguel City Council member (1996-2000)

Biography: Walters received her bachelor's degree from the University of California, Los Angeles. Her professional experience includes working as an investment advisor at Drexel, Burnham and Lambert. She was the co-chair of the Orange County branch of the recall campaign for California Gov. Gray Davis (D) in 2003.

Key messages
  • Walters emphasized her plans to reduce taxes on wage earners and businesses. She also wanted to reduce the national debt.[5]
  • Walters wanted to secure the U.S./Mexico border and change the legal immigration process to favor employment-based visas and immediate family members. She said DACA recipients should be allowed to stay in the country.[5]
  • Walters also wanted to increase military pay and change the reporting process for sexual assaults in the armed forces.[5]


Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
California's 45th Congressional District
Poll Poll sponsor Mimi Walters (R) Katie Porter (D)UndecidedMargin of errorSample size
NYT Upshot/Siena College
(October 26-November 1, 2018)		The New York Times 46%48%6%+/-4.6499
Public Opinion Strategies
(October 14-17, 2018)		None 50%46%4%+/-4.9400
Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies
(September 16-23, 2018)		None 45%52%3%+/-6.0519
NYT Upshot/Siena College
(September 21-25, 2018)		The New York Times 43%48%8%+/-4.5518
GBA Strategies
(September 20-23, 2018)		End Citizens United 47%48%5%+/-4.9400
Global Strategy Group
(September 14-18, 2018)		Porter campaign 43%46%11%+/-4.4500
Tulchin Research
(August 10-14, 2018)		DCCC 46%49%5%+/-4.38500
Global Strategy Group
(July 26-31, 2018)		Porter campaign 45%44%11%+/-4.4500
AVERAGES 45.63% 47.63% 6.63% +/-4.76 479.5
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Mimi Walters Republican Party $4,937,509 $5,280,460 $50,119 As of December 31, 2018
Katie Porter Democratic Party $6,975,218 $6,891,471 $83,747 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Satellite spending

Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[6][7][8]

This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.

Democratic

  • The California Realtors PAC spent $707,000 on mail and digital ads for Porter and against Walters.
  • The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced it would spend $3.1 million on television advertising in the Los Angeles media market ahead of the November elections.[9]
  • The House Majority PAC announced plans to spend $43 million on television advertisements in 2018. Some of the spending would be in this race's media market, according to the Washington Post.[10]
  • The National Association of Realtors spent $410,000 in mailers and $875,000 on a TV ad buy supporting Porter in mid-October.[11][12]

Republican

  • The New Republican PAC had spent $600,000 against Porter as of October 26, 2018.[14]

Satellite spending in top-two primary

  • 314 Action had spent about $304,000 supporting Brian Forde as of May 30.[15]
  • The Courage Campaign had spent about $23,000 opposing Mimi Walters as of May 30.[15]
  • EMILY's List had spent about $310,000 as of May 30. About $241,000 went toward supporting Katie Porter, about $68,000 went toward opposing Mimi Walters, and about $700 went toward opposing David Min.[15]
  • End Citizens United had spent about $98,000 supporting Katie Porter as of May 30.[15]
  • Giffords had spent $12,000 opposing Mimi Walters as of May 30.[15]
  • PAC for a Change had spent about $7,000 opposing Mimi Walters as of May 30.[15]
  • The Progressive Change Campaign Committee spent $20,000 opposing Dave Min on May 30.[15]
  • The U.S. Chamber of Commerce had spent $250,000 supporting Mimi Walters as of May 30.[15]

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[16]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[17][18][19]

Race ratings: California's 45th Congressional District election, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political ReportToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean DemocraticLean DemocraticToss-upToss-up
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+3, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 3 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made California's 45th Congressional District the 211th most Republican nationally.[20]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.95. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.95 points toward that party.[21]

Noteworthy endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.


Click the links below to see endorsement lists published on candidate campaign websites, if available.

Katie Porter

Mimi Walters

Campaign advertisements

This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.

Democratic Party Katie Porter

Support

"Healthcare," released September 9, 2018
"Appendicitis," released September 9, 2018
"100 % Orange County," released August 22, 2018
"Straight-Up Lie," released August 20, 2018

Oppose

"Grow," Congressional Leadership Fund ad released October 19, 2018
"Right Away," NRCC ad released October 9, 2018
"Clear Choice," Congressional Leadership Fund campaign ad released September 28, 2018
"Liberal," Congressional Leadership Fund campaign ad released August 14, 2018
"Mentor," Walters campaign ad released June 11, 2018

Republican Party Mimi Walters

Support

"Randy," released September 11, 2018
"Mimi Walters - Todd," released May 21, 2018
"Mimi Walters - Patricia," released April 25, 2018
"Mimi Walters for Congress B Roll," released April 18, 2018

Oppose

"Taxes," released October 15, 2018
"Wall," released October 9, 2018

Campaign strategies and tactics

Gas tax repeal

See also: California Proposition 6, Voter Approval for Future Gas and Vehicle Taxes and 2017 Tax Repeal Initiative (2018)

Mimi Walters and Katie Porter supported a ballot initiative that would repeal increases in the state's gasoline and fuel taxes passed in April 2017 and would require voter approval for future gas tax increases.

Walters told supporters that having the gas tax repeal on the November ballot would increase Republican turnout and help her win re-election. She said the November vote was "the last thing the Democrats wanted -- this was not the way they saw 2018 shaping up."

Carl DeMaio (R), who led the effort to put the gas tax repeal on the ballot, said, "It will motivate turnout, and lets be very clear: Republicans have a turnout problem this year."[22]

DeMaio also led a recall effort against state Sen. Josh Newman (D) after Newman voted for the gas tax in April 2017. Newman was recalled from his Orange County-based seat on June 5, 2018, and replaced by Ling Ling Chang (R). The 45th District also intersected with Orange County in 2018.

Porter released a campaign ad in August 2018 where she said, “I oppose higher gas taxes and I won’t be afraid to take on leaders of both political parties.” Porter campaign manager Erica Kwiatkowski said voters should see the ad as an endorsement of Proposition 6.

Ben Christopher of CalMatters wrote, "In this fiercely partisan debate over Prop. 6, Porter’s announcement marks the most prominent defection from the Democratic ranks yet. (It also may mark the first time that the anti-tax Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association and a single-payer advocate have stood on the same side of a tax policy debate.)"[23]

California Democratic Party endorsement in U.S. Senate race

Katie Porter signed a letter urging the California Democratic Party to not issue an endorsement in the U.S. Senate race between Dianne Feinstein (D) and Kevin de León (D).

Ahead of the June 5 primary, de León received a majority of the convention delegates' votes—about 54 percent to Feinstein's 37 percent—but neither received the 60 percent necessary for an endorsement. The vote result made Feinstein "the first incumbent senator in recent memory who will run in June’s primary without official backing," according to The Washington Post.[24]

Feinstein said she would not seek the party's endorsement in the general election, while de León said he would. The letter, sent by Porter and other Democrats running in swing districts, said, “A divisive party endorsement … would hurt all down ballot candidates and our ability to turn out Democrats we desperately need to vote in November.”[25]

Campaign themes

Democratic Party Katie Porter

Porter’s campaign website stated the following:

“

Medicare For All
Katie will fight for a Medicare for All system in which every American has quality health insurance. Katie Porter believes affordable health care is a human right and will fight Republican efforts to repeal Obamacare.

Women's Health
Katie Porter will always protect a woman's right to choose and believes that women's health care and birth control shouldn't be a luxury. She will fight any efforts by Republicans to defund Planned Parenthood, restrict access to birth control, or ban the right to choose.

Common Sense Gun Reform
Katie is proud to be a Moms Demand Action Gun Sense Candidate and does not accept contributions from the NRA. She supports a ban on assault weapons so that dozens don’t die in a matter of minutes, mandatory background checks on all gun sales, and a healthcare system that provides comprehensive mental health treatment.

Reversing the Tax Bill
As a working mother, Katie Porter understands how hard it is to make ends meet in Orange County. She'll fight to overturn the Republican tax plan that slashes Medicare and raises taxes on middle-class families, and instead pass real tax reform that makes wealthy corporations pay their fair share and cuts taxes on the middle class and small businesses.

Immigration
Katie knows that we need comprehensive immigration reform that provides a fair pathway to citizenship for those who are undocumented.

Environment
Katie will take on big oil and the corporate polluters to stop offshore drilling, and will fight to invest in renewable energy development, and support high emission standards and save important environmental protections.

Public Education
Katie believes that quality public education is the bedrock of the American dream. She supports increasing our investment in education, expanding early childhood education and making college more affordable for our kids.

[26]

”
—Katie Porter’s campaign website (2018)[27]

Republican Party Mimi Walters

Walters' campaign website stated the following:

“

Debt and Taxes
Americans are taxed too much and those of us who live in California are hit even harder with high taxes. High taxes make it harder to buy a home, save for college, and plan for retirement. For small businesses, high taxes stifle investment and drive away jobs.

In Congress, I am working to reduce taxes on all wage earners and job-creating businesses. Bloated government agencies must learn to operate more like businesses. The debt is a spending problem, not a tax problem. I voted for a balanced budget resolution that forces Washington to live within its means. The budget provides for a strong national defense, repeals Obamacare, strengthens and protects Medicare and Social Security for our seniors, and most importantly, balances in ten years without putting a single cent on the backs of taxpayers

My work for taxpayers and fiscally responsible approach to government has earned me the support of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association.

Immigration
Immigration to the United States, both legal and illegal, has exploded over the last wo decades. According to the Census Bureau, our nation’s immigrant population hit a record 43.7 million in July 2016, an increase of 12.6 million since 2000. About one-quarter of the immigrants living in the U.S. entered the country illegally. To fix the system we need to secure our border to end illegal immigration and rebalance the legal immigration process to favor employment-based visas and immediate family members. We should encourage legal immigrants who desire to make the U.S. their permanent home to find employment, learn English and apply for citizenship.

Secure the Border
I support securing the border and believe it will take a comprehensive approach. Our nation’s security experts need to decide which approach works in the different terrain along our 2,000 mile southern border. It could include, among the options, physical walls, high tech “virtual walls”, beefed up border patrols by both drones and border patrol officers.

Help Dreamers
I believe children brought to America illegally through no fault of their own should be allowed to stay, as long as they have not committed a crime.

Reform Chain Migration
Chain migration needs immediate reform to end abuses. I support legislation to retain immigration preferences only for the for the spouses and minor children of U.S. citizens and legal permanent residents, and to eliminate preferences for the extended family members.

End the Diversity Lottery
The Diversity Lottery is outdated and plagued with fraud that has resulted in terrorists entering our country. There is no economic or humanitarian justification for continuing the Diversity Lottery.

National Security
The prior Administration’s failed foreign policies on Iran, North Korea and the war against Islamist terror emboldened the enemies of freedom and democracy and left our allies wondering what happened to the America that was the beacon of strength and liberty for the last 100 years.

Defeating ISIS and stopping the spread of Islamist ideology must be our highest priority. The terrorist attacks in Europe and here in the U.S. cannot continue. I support an aggressive frontal approach that seeks out and destroys the terrorists where they live and an American foreign policy that puts the interests of our nation and our allies first.

I voted to increase the pay for our troops and to hold bureaucrats accountable for their mistreatment of veterans. The legislation I voted for also improves access to healthcare for our current service members, veterans, and their families and takes several necessary steps to prevent sexual assault in the military by improving the reporting process and enhancing victims’ rights. As the daughter of a U.S. Marine, I will never waiver in my support for the men and women who defend our nation and keep us free.

[26]

”
—Mimi Walters' campaign website (2018)[28]

Social media

Twitter accounts

Facebook accounts

Click the icons below to visit the candidates' Facebook pages.

Democratic Party Katie Porter Facebook

Republican Party Mimi Walters Facebook

Republican district won by Hillary Clinton

See also: U.S. House districts represented by a Republican and won by Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Split-ticket districts in the 2016 presidential and U.S. House elections

This district was one of 25 Republican-held U.S. House districts that Hillary Clinton (D) won in the 2016 presidential election.[29] Nearly all were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2018.

Click on the table below to see the full list of districts.


2018 election results in Republican-held U.S. House districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016
District Incumbent 2018 winner 2018 margin 2016 presidential margin 2012 presidential margin
Arizona's 2nd Republican Party Martha McSally Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick D+9.5 Clinton+4.9 Romney+1.5
California's 10th Republican Party Jeff Denham Democratic Party Josh Harder D+2.6 Clinton+3.0 Obama+3.6
California's 21st Republican Party David Valadao Democratic Party TJ Cox D+0.8 Clinton+15.5 Obama+11.1
California's 25th Republican Party Steve Knight Democratic Party Katie Hill D+6.4 Clinton+6.7 Romney+1.9
California's 39th Republican Party Ed Royce Democratic Party Gil Cisneros D+1.4 Clinton+8.6 Romney+3.7
California's 45th Republican Party Mimi Walters Democratic Party Katie Porter D+1.6 Clinton+5.4 Romney+11.8
California's 48th Republican Party Dana Rohrabacher Democratic Party Harley Rouda D+5.8 Clinton+1.7 Romney+11.7
California's 49th Republican Party Darrell Issa Democratic Party Mike Levin D+7.4 Clinton+7.5 Romney+6.7
Colorado's 6th Republican Party Mike Coffman Democratic Party Jason Crow D+11.2 Clinton+8.9 Obama+5.1
Florida's 26th Republican Party Carlos Curbelo Democratic Party Debbie Mucarsel-Powell D+1.8 Clinton+16.1 Obama+11.5
Florida's 27th Republican Party Ileana Ros-Lehtinen Democratic Party Donna Shalala D+6.0 Clinton+19.7 Obama+6.7
Illinois' 6th Republican Party Peter Roskam Democratic Party Sean Casten D+5.6 Clinton+7.0 Romney+8.2
Kansas' 3rd Republican Party Kevin Yoder Democratic Party Sharice Davids D+9.1 Clinton+1.2 Romney+9.5
Minnesota's 3rd Republican Party Erik Paulsen Democratic Party Dean Phillips D+11.4 Clinton+9.4 Obama+0.8
New Jersey's 7th Republican Party Leonard Lance Democratic Party Tom Malinowski D+4.7 Clinton+1.1 Romney+6.2
New York's 24th Republican Party John Katko Republican Party John Katko R+6.3 Clinton+3.6 Obama+15.9
Pennsylvania's 1st Republican Party Brian Fitzpatrick[30] Republican Party Brian Fitzpatrick R+2.6 Clinton+2.0 Obama+2.6
Pennsylvania's 5th Republican Party Pat Meehan[31] Democratic Party Mary Gay Scanlon D+30.2 Clinton+28.2 Obama+27.7
Pennsylvania's 6th Republican Party Ryan Costello[32] Democratic Party Chrissy Houlahan D+17.6 Clinton+9.3 Obama+3.2
Pennsylvania's 7th Republican Party Charlie Dent[33] Democratic Party Susan Wild D+11.3 Clinton+1.1 Obama+7.0
Texas' 7th Republican Party John Culberson Democratic Party Lizzie Pannill Fletcher D+5.0 Clinton+1.4 Romney+21.3
Texas' 23rd Republican Party Will Hurd Republican Party Will Hurd R+0.5 Clinton+3.4 Romney+2.6
Texas' 32nd Republican Party Pete Sessions Democratic Party Colin Allred D+6.3 Clinton+1.9 Romney+15.5
Virginia's 10th Republican Party Barbara Comstock Democratic Party Jennifer Wexton D+12.4 Clinton+10.0 Romney+1.6
Washington's 8th Republican Party David Reichert Democratic Party Kim Schrier D+6.2 Clinton+3.0 Obama+1.6


Click here to see the 13 Democratic-held U.S. House districts that Donald Trump (R) won.

Click here to see an overview of all split-ticket districts in the 2016 presidential and U.S. House elections..

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

There are no Pivot Counties in California. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won California with 61.7 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 31.6 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, California voted Republican 53.33 percent of the time and Democratic 43.33 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, California voted Democratic all five times. In 2016, California had 55 electoral votes, which was the most of any state. The 55 electoral votes were 10.2 percent of all 538 available electoral votes and were 20.4 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Assembly districts in California. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[34][35]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 58 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 38.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 66 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 40.3 points. Clinton won 11 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 22 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 12.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 14 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 13 points.


District history

2016

See also: California's 45th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Mimi Walters (R) defeated Ron Varasteh (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Walters and Varasteh defeated Greg Raths (R) and Max Gouron (D) in the top-two primary on June 7, 2016.[36][37]

U.S. House, California District 45 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMimi Walters Incumbent 58.6% 182,618
     Democratic Ron Varasteh 41.4% 129,231
Total Votes 311,849
Source: California Secretary of State


U.S. House, California District 45 Primary, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMimi Walters Incumbent 40.9% 65,773
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngRon Varasteh 27.6% 44,449
     Republican Greg Raths 19.2% 30,961
     Democratic Max Gouron 12.3% 19,716
Total Votes 160,899
Source: California Secretary of State

2014

See also: California's 45th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 45th Congressional District of California held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Mimi Walters (R) defeated Drew Leavens (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, California District 45 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMimi Walters 65.1% 106,083
     Democratic Drew Leavens 34.9% 56,819
Total Votes 162,902
Source: California Secretary of State

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in California heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

  • As of May 2018, Democrats held seven of 10 state executive positions and the remaining three positions were officially nonpartisan.
  • The governor of California was Democrat Jerry Brown.

State legislature

  • Democrats controlled both chambers of the California State Legislature. They had a 55-25 majority in the state Assembly and a 27-13 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • California was a state government trifecta, meaning that Democrats held the governorship and majorities in the state house and state senate.

2018 elections

See also: California elections, 2018

California held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for California
 CaliforniaU.S.
Total population:38,993,940316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):155,7793,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:61.8%73.6%
Black/African American:5.9%12.6%
Asian:13.7%5.1%
Native American:0.7%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.4%0.2%
Two or more:4.5%3%
Hispanic/Latino:38.4%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:81.8%86.7%
College graduation rate:31.4%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$61,818$53,889
Persons below poverty level:18.2%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in California.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, California had a population of approximately 39,000,000 people, with its three largest cities being Los Angeles (pop. est. 4.0 million), San Diego (pop. est. 1.4 million), and San Jose (pop. est. 1 million).[38][39]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in California from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the California Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in California every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), California 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 61.7% Republican Party Donald Trump 31.6% 30.1%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 60.2% Republican Party Mitt Romney 37.1% 23.1%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 61.1% Republican Party John McCain 37% 24.1%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 54.4% Republican Party George W. Bush 44.4% 10%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 53.5% Republican Party George W. Bush 41.7% 11.8%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in California from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), California 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Kamala Harris 61.6% Democratic Party Loretta Sanchez 38.4% 23.2%
2012 Democratic Party Dianne Feinstein 62.5% Republican Party Elizabeth Emken 37.5% 25%
2010 Democratic Party Barbara Boxer 52.2% Republican Party Carly Fiorina 42.2% 10%
2006 Democratic Party Dianne Feinstein 59.5% Republican Party Richard Mountjoy 35.1% 24.4%
2004 Democratic Party Barbara Boxer 57.8% Republican Party Bill Jones 37.8% 20%
2000 Democratic Party Dianne Feinstein 55.9% Republican Party Tom Campbell 36.6% 19.3%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in California.

Election results (Governor), California 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Democratic Party Jerry Brown 60% Republican Party Neel Kashkari 40% 20%
2010 Democratic Party Jerry Brown 53.8% Republican Party Meg Whitman 40.9% 12.9%
2006 Republican Party Arnold Schwarzenegger 55.9% Democratic Party Phil Angelides 39.0% 16.9%
2002 Democratic Party Gray Davis 47.3% Republican Party Bill Simon 42.4% 4.9%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent California in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, California 2000-2016
Year Democrats Democrats (%) Republicans Republicans (%) Balance of power
2016 Democratic Party 39 73.5% Republican Party 14 26.4% D+25
2014 Democratic Party 39 73.5% Republican Party 14 26.4% D+25
2012 Democratic Party 38 71.7% Republican Party 15 28.3% D+23
2010 Democratic Party 34 64.1% Republican Party 19 35.8% D+15
2008 Democratic Party 34 64.1% Republican Party 19 35.8% D+15
2006 Democratic Party 34 64.1% Republican Party 19 35.8% D+15
2004 Democratic Party 33 62.3% Republican Party 20 37.7% D+13
2002 Democratic Party 33 62.3% Republican Party 20 37.7% D+13
2000 Democratic Party 32 61.5% Republican Party 20 38.5% D+12

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

California Party Control: 1992-2025
Twenty years with Democratic trifectas  •  No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R R R R R R R D D D D D R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Senate D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Assembly D D D S R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D

See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ DCCC, "House Democrats Playing Offense," January 30, 2017
  2. ↑ Katie Porter for Congress, "About," accessed May 10, 2018
  3. ↑ Katie Porter 2018 campaign website, "Meet Katie," accessed September 17, 2018
  4. ↑ Katie Porter 2018 campaign website, "Issues," accessed September 17, 2018
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 Mimi Walters for Congress, "Issues," accessed May 10, 2018
  6. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
  7. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
  8. ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
  9. ↑ The Hill, "Dems make big play for House in California," July 31, 2018
  10. ↑ Washington Post, "Democratic super PAC makes plans to spend $43 million on House races," March 8, 2018
  11. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Independent Expenditures," accessed October 11, 2018
  12. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Independent Expenditures," accessed October 15, 2018
  13. ↑ YouTube, "(CA-45) Liberal," August 14, 2018
  14. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Independent Expenditures," accessed October 31, 2018
  15. ↑ 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 ProPublica, "California’s 45th District House Race - 2018 cycle," May 30, 2018
  16. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  17. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  18. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  19. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  20. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  21. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  22. ↑ KQED, "One Thing California Republicans Agree On? Repealing the Gas Tax," May 5, 2018
  23. ↑ CalMatters, "Gas tax defection: Progressive congressional candidate endorses repeal effort," August 21, 2018
  24. ↑ The Washington Post, "Feinstein loses California Democratic Party’s endorsement," February 25, 2018
  25. ↑ The Intercept, "DIANNE FEINSTEIN DRAFTS HOUSE CANDIDATES IN EFFORT TO STAVE OFF PARTY ENDORSEMENT LOSS IN CALIFORNIA," July 10, 2018
  26. ↑ 26.0 26.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  27. ↑ Katie Porter for Congress, “Issues,” accessed May 29, 2018
  28. ↑ Mimi Walters for Congress, “Issues,” accessed May 29, 2018
  29. ↑ This figure includes Pennsylvania districts that were redrawn by the state Supreme Court in early 2018 and districts that flipped in special elections.
  30. ↑ The new 1st district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 8th District held by Fitzpatrick. Click here to read more.
  31. ↑ The new 5th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 7th District held by Meehan. Click here to read more.
  32. ↑ The new 6th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 6th District held by Costello. Click here to read more.
  33. ↑ The new 7th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 15th District held by Dent. Click here to read more.
  34. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  35. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  36. ↑ California Secretary of State, "Certified List of Candidates for Voter-Nominated Offices June 7, 2016, Presidential Primary Election," accessed April 4, 2016
  37. ↑ The New York Times, "California Primary Results," June 7, 2016
  38. ↑ California Demographics, "California Cities by Population," accessed April 2, 2018
  39. ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts California," accessed April 2, 2018
v • e
2017-2018 Elections to the United States Congress
Senate by StateCongressLogo.png
House by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming
Election information
Super PACs/Organizations



California's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Alex Padilla (D)
Adam Schiff (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
Ami Bera (D)
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
Adam Gray (D)
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
Ro Khanna (D)
District 18
District 19
District 20
District 21
Jim Costa (D)
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
Raul Ruiz (D)
District 26
District 27
District 28
Judy Chu (D)
District 29
Luz Rivas (D)
District 30
District 31
District 32
District 33
District 34
District 35
District 36
Ted Lieu (D)
District 37
District 38
District 39
District 40
Young Kim (R)
District 41
District 42
District 43
District 44
District 45
District 46
District 47
Dave Min (D)
District 48
District 49
District 50
District 51
District 52
Democratic Party (45)
Republican Party (9)

Retrieved from "https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=California%27s_45th_Congressional_District_election,_2018&oldid=9422759"