Changes in state legislative seats during the Trump presidency, 2017-2021

2020 state-level election analysis

Statewide analysis
State government trifectas
Trifecta vulnerability
Presidential election results by trifecta status
State government triplexes
Officials seeking other offices
Incumbent win rates
Noteworthy third party candidates

State legislatures
Annual Competitiveness Report
Battleground chambers
Open seats • Incumbents defeated
Close races • Flipped seats
Supermajorities and gubernatorial conflict

State executives
Annual Competitiveness Report
Partisan balance of governors
Impact of term limits
Gubernatorial and presidential split-ticket states
Gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections
Battleground polls

Other 2020 analysis
Federal election analysis
Local election analysis

In 61 of the 99 state legislative chambers, the Democratic Party held more seats following the 2020 general election than it did after the general election in 2016.

During President Donald Trump's (R) term, Republicans lost a net 187 state legislative seats, decreasing the party's control of seats by three percentage points. Six state legislative chambers in five states flipped from Republican to Democratic control compared to the start of Trump's presidency. In four states—Colorado, Maine, New York, and Virginia—this resulted in the creation of Democratic trifectas, where Democrats controlled both chambers as well as the governorship. Republicans did not gain control of any chambers by the end of Trump's presidency that they did not already control at its start. The Alaska House of Representatives was controlled by a bipartisan coalition throughout Trump's presidency. Click here to learn more about the changes in that chamber during Trump's presidency.

Trump's presidency was the third in the 21st century, following George W. Bush (R) and Barack Obama (D), both of whom served for eight years. A comparison of all three presidents' first four years in office shows that Trump's loss of 187 seats was lower than Obama's, who lost 598 Democratic seats between 2009 and 2013, a decrease of eight percentage points. During Bush's first four years, from 2001 to 2005, Republicans gained a net 119 seats, increasing the party's control by one percentage point.

A deeper historical view since 1921 shows that Trump was the first Republican president to see a net loss of Republican-held state legislative seats during the first term since the Richard Nixon/Gerald Ford administration. In addition to W. Bush, George H.W. Bush (R) and Ronald Reagan (R) both gained state legislative seats over the course of their first four years. The last Democratic president to gain seats during the first four years was the John F. Kennedy/Lyndon B. Johnson administration.

When comparing entire presidencies, regardless of terms, Trump's loss of 187 seats was the lowest since Harry Truman's (D) presidency, which saw a net loss of 138 Democratic state legislative seats. Two presidents—H.W. Bush and Reagan—gained state legislative seats over the course of their presidencies. The largest Republican losses occurred under the Herbert Hoover (R) administration, which saw a net loss of 1,662 Republican seats from 1929 to 1923. The largest Democratic losses occurred under the Obama administration, which saw a net loss of 948 Democratic seats from 2009 to 2017.

On this page you will find:

A comparison of net changes in state legislative seats by presidency from 1921 to 2021.
Lists of the largest gains and losses by chamber for Republicans during Trump's presidency.
An analysis of state legislative chambers that flipped party control during Trump's presidency.
An overview of party margin changes by state.
Historical partisan control of state legislative seats since 1921.

Methodology

This analysis uses historical information to compare changes in state legislative seats between all presidencies since 1921. Ballotpedia combined the presidencies of Warren G. Harding (R) and Calvin Coolidge (R), John F. Kennedy (D) and Lyndon B. Johnson (D), and Richard Nixon (R) and Gerald Ford (R). In each of these instances, one president was elected and held office until the following midterm election year before leaving office early either due to death or resignation. The presidencies of Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) and Harry Truman (D) are not combined since Roosevelt died and Truman took office in 1945, more than a year before the following midterm election.

Partisan totals in this analysis represent those as a result of regularly-scheduled elections. They do not take into account any special elections or other changes that may occur between such elections. If a chamber does not hold even-year elections for all members every two years, the results of the most recent regularly-scheduled election are pulled forward and used as an estimate for any off-years. In the graphics below, "Other" encompasses independent, minor party, or vacant seats. It also includes legislators, for whom Ballotpedia could not determine a party affiliation either due to lack of information or because of a chamber's nonpartisan status.

As a result, totals displayed in this analysis may not directly match those shown elsewhere on Ballotpedia. Click here to view a previous analysis that includes mid-cycle seat changes from 2001 to 2021.

Net changes compared by presidency

Use the table below to view comparisons of state legislative seat changes by presidency from 1921 to 2021.

Largest gains and losses of the president's party

Republican gains

During Trump's presidency, Republicans had a net gain of state legislative seats in 28 of the country's 99 state legislative chambers. The largest gains, both in terms of total number of seats as well as percentage of seats, came in the West Virginia House of Delegates and the Kentucky House of Representatives. In West Virginia, Republicans gained 13 state House seats, representing a 13.0 percentage point increase of the party's control in the chamber. In Kentucky, Republicans gained 11 state House seats, representing an 11.0 percentage point increase of the party's control in the chamber.

The following table lists the top five state legislative chambers in terms of largest Republican gains during Trump's presidency. The left columns show the largest gains in terms of total number of seats gained. These are shown as raw numbers. The right columns show the largest gains in terms of percentage of seats gained relative to the size of the given chamber. These are shown as percentage point increases.

Largest Republican gains from 2017 to 2021
Total seats		Percentage of seats
Chamber	Gains	Chamber	Gains
West Virginia House of Delegates	+13	West Virginia House of Delegates	+13.0
Kentucky House of Representatives	+11	Kentucky House of Representatives	+11.0
Montana House of Representatives	+8	South Dakota State Senate	+8.6
Louisiana House of Representatives Oklahoma House of Representatives	+7	Montana House of Representatives	+8.0
Alabama House of Representatives Arkansas House of Representatives	+5	Kentucky State Senate	+7.9

Republican losses

During Trump's presidency, Republicans had a net loss of state legislative seats in 51 of the country's 99 state legislative chambers. The largest losses, both in terms of total number of seats as well as percentage of seats, came in the Virginia House of Delegates, where Republicans lost 21 seats, representing a 21.0 percentage point decrease of control in the chamber. Other large losses came in the Connecticut House of Representatives, where Republicans lost 18 state legislative seats, and the New York State Senate, where Republicans' control decreased by 17.5 percentage points.

The following table lists the top five state legislative chambers in terms of largest Republican losses during Trump's presidency. The left columns show the largest losses in terms of total number of seats lost. These are shown as raw numbers. The right columns show the largest losses in terms of percentage of seats lost relative to the size of the given chamber. These are shown as percentage point decreases.

Largest Republican losses from 2017 to 2021
Total seats		Percentage of seats
Chamber	Losses	Chamber	Losses
Virginia House of Delegates	-21	Virginia House of Delegates	-21.0
Connecticut House of Representatives	-18	New York State Senate	-17.5
Georgia House of Representatives	-15	Connecticut State Senate	-16.7
New Hampshire House of Representatives	-14	Delaware State Senate Maine State Senate	-14.3
Minnesota House of Representatives Texas House of Representatives	-12	North Carolina State Senate	-14.0

Chamber flips

Democratic flips

Democrats controlled six more state legislative chambers by the end of Trump's presidency than they controlled at its start.

Four Democratic trifectas were created as a result of these flips.

Colorado: Democrats won control of the state Senate in 2018. Democrats held the governorship and state House throughout Trump's presidency.
Maine: Democrats won control of the state Senate in 2018 and, during the same general election, won control of the governorship. Democrats held the state House throughout Trump's presidency.
New York: Democrats won control of the state Senate in 2018.^[1] Democrats held control of the governorship and state Assembly throughout Trump's presidency.
Virginia: Democrats won control of the state House and state Senate in 2019. Democrats held control of the governorship throughout Trump's presidency.

The table below lists the six chambers flipped by Democrats by comparing partisan control in 2017 to partisan control in 2021.

Democratic state legislative chamber flips during the Trump presidency^[2]
Chamber	Partisan control (2017)	Partisan control (2021)	Net change
Colorado State Senate	17 - 18	20 - 15	D+3
Maine State Senate	17 - 18	22 - 13	D+5
Minnesota House of Representatives	57 - 76 - 1	70 - 64	D+13
New York State Senate	31 - 31/1^[3]	43 - 20	D+11
Virginia House of Delegates	34 - 66	55 - 45	D+21
Virginia State Senate	19 - 21	21 - 19	D+2

Republican flips

Republicans did not gain control of any chambers by the end of Trump's presidency that they did not already control at its start.

Alaska House of Representatives

At the start of Trump's presidency, the Alaska House of Representatives was controlled by a bipartisan majority. Republicans maintained a numerical majority in the chamber throughout Trump's presidency, but varying coalitions of Democrats, Republicans, and independent or unaffiliated legislators kept the chamber under a bipartisan majority throughout Trump's presidency. Party control of the House Speakership did change throughout Trump's presidency.

The table below shows the makeup of the Alaska House at the moment each bipartisan coalition was announced in 2017, 2019, and 2021. Information on the left shows the makeup of the governing majority and the minority. Information on the right shows the partisan totals for the entire chamber. Numbers colored blue indicate Democrats, those colored red indicate Republicans, and those colored black indicate independent or unaffiliated legislators.

Alaska House of Representatives party control, 2017-2021
Year	Chamber control			Partisan totals
Year	Bipartisan majority	Republicans	Speaker	Democrats	Republicans	Independent
2017	17/3/2	18	Bryce E. Edgmon	17	21	2
2019	15/8/2	15	Bryce E. Edgmon	15	23	2
2021	15/2/4	19	Louise Stutes	15	21	4

Overall state legislative margin changes

During Trump's presidency, Democrats saw positive margin changes, either by increasing an already-existing majority or narrowing/flipping a Republican majority, in 34 states. Republicans saw positive margin changes in 13 states. There was no change in Alaska or Nevada.^[4]

The largest margin changes in Democrats' favor came in Connecticut, Virginia, and Georgia. In Connecticut, Democrats held a 97-90 majority in the state legislature at the start of Trump's presidency, a D+7 margin. By 2021, Democrats increased their majority to 121-66, a D+55 margin. Overall, the margin between Democrats and Republicans in Connecticut increased by 48 seats in Democrats' favor during Trump's presidency.

The largest margin changes in Republicans' favor came in Kentucky, West Virginia, and Louisiana. In Kentucky, Republicans held a 91-47 majority in the state legislature at the start of Trump's presidency, an R+44 margin. By 2021, Republicans increased their majority to 105-33, an R+72 margin. Overall, the margin between Republicans and Democrats in Kentucky increased by 28 seats in Republicans' favor during Trump's presidency.

Historical partisan control

The table below shows the partisan control of all state legislative seats between 1921 and 2021 broken down by two-year increments to correspond with the aftermaths of even-year general elections.

The three largest shifts in partisan control followed elections in 1932, 1922, and 1958, resulting in Democratic gains.

The largest shift followed the 1932 presidential election when Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) defeated incumbent Herbert Hoover (R) during the Great Depression. Democrats held 1,149 more state legislative seats in 1933, a 14 percentage point increase. This gave Democrats control of a true majority of state legislative seats, which would continue until the 1946 midterm elections, the first following Roosevelt's death in 1945.

The second-largest shift followed the 1922 midterm elections during Warren G. Harding's (R) term in office. Democrats held 962 more state legislative seats at the start of 1923 than they did in 1921. Before the midterm elections, Democrats controlled 34% of state legislative seats, the party's lowest level of control at any point between 1921 and 2021.

The third-largest shift followed the 1958 midterm elections during Dwight Eisenhower's (R) second term in office. Democrats held 758 more state legislative seats at the start of 1959 than they did in 1957, a shift of ten percentage points in the party's favor.

Ballotpedia defines peak control as the point where one party held its largest percentage share of state legislative seats. Both party's peak levels of control corresponded with the election of a president of their party. Democrats' peak control followed Jimmy Carter's (D) election in 1976, the first presidential election following Watergate. Democrats controlled 67.6% (5,116) of state legislative seats. Republicans' peak control followed Harding's election in 1920 following the end of World War I. Republicans controlled 62.2% (4,637) of state legislative seats.

Previous analysis

Ballotpedia's previous analysis of changes in state legislative seats during Trump's presidency included mid-cycle changes such as special elections. The results of this analysis can be view by clicking [Show more] below.

Introduction

In 62 of the 99 state legislative chambers, the Democratic Party held more seats in January 2021 than it did in January 2017.

During President Donald Trump's (R) term, Republicans lost a net 180 state legislative seats. Five state legislative chambers in four states flipped from Republican to Democratic control compared to the start of Trump's presidency. In three states—Colorado, Maine, and Virginia—this resulted in the creation of Democratic trifectas, where Democrats controlled both chambers as well as the governorship. Republicans did not gain control of any chambers by the end of Trump's presidency that they did not already control at its start.

Trump's presidency was the third in the 21st century, following George W. Bush (R) and Barack Obama (D). Both Bush and Obama served for eight years. A comparison of all three presidents' first four years in office shows that Trump's loss of 180 seats was lower than Obama's, who lost 602 Democratic seats between 2009 and 2013. During Bush's first four years, from 2001 to 2005, Republicans gained a net 120 seats.

When comparing entire presidencies, regardless of the length, Trump's loss of 180 Republican seats during his single term was the lowest in the 21st century. During Bush's two terms, Republicans lost a net 314 seats, and during Obama's two terms, Democrats lost a net 968 seats, the largest loss of the president's party's state legislative seats since World War II.

Republicans gained 145 seats during the second two years of Trump's presidency, between 2018 and 2020. This gain was larger than Democrat's 124 during the second two years of Obama's presidency. During Bush's presidency, Republicans lost 23 seats during his second two years in office.

Net changes compared by presidency

Use the table below to view comparisons of the Bush, Obama, and Trump presidencies broken down by different timeframes.