Clinton sweeps Super Tuesday III
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This article covering the 2016 presidential election was written outside the scope of Ballotpedia's encyclopedic coverage and does not fall under our neutrality policy or style guidelines. It is preserved as it was originally written. For our encyclopedic coverage of the 2016 election, click here.
March 16, 2016
What a difference a week can make in politics. When former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was upset by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in the March 8 Michigan Democratic presidential primary, her presidential campaign was knocked off stride. Suddenly it seemed that Sanders and his populist economic message might start resonating with Democratic voters in Rustbelt states that had lost jobs to foreign competition.
But one week later, Clinton and her campaign squelched that argument, winning the Illinois and Ohio primaries and finishing ahead of Sanders in the tabulated vote in Missouri. But she won by such a narrow margin—0.2 percent of the vote with 99 percent of precincts reporting—that a recount was possible. Clinton also continued her dominance in the South, scoring convincing victories over Sanders in Florida and North Carolina, the former by more than 30 percentage points and half a million votes.
Clinton’s victory in Ohio was particularly impressive after some pre-primary polls showed Sanders closing the margin against Clinton in the wake of his Michigan upset. Clinton won 10 of the top 10 vote producing counties in the Democratic primary, including Franklin—home to Columbus and Ohio State University—by a comfortable 55 to 45 percent. She won major urban counties: Cuyahoga (Cleveland) and Hamilton (Cincinnati), big blue-collar counties Summit (Akron) and Lucas (Toledo), and the quintessential Midwestern metro county Montgomery (Dayton).
Overall, Clinton won 76 of Ohio’s 88 counties. Sanders' best-performing county was Athens, home to Ohio University, where he beat Clinton 61 to 38 percent. But that was the only Ohio county that he won by more than 10 percentage points. The campus vote also showed up for Sanders in Wood County (Bowling Green State University), Greene County (Antioch College) and Portage County (Kent State University). But in those latter two, he only squeaked by Clinton.
What was particularly punishing for Sanders in Ohio was that the economic themes he’s trumpeted—skepticism toward big business and trade agreements—drew much less support to his candidacy than they did in Michigan, according to the television networks’ exit poll, a representative sampling of voters as they left their precinct polling stations. As in Michigan, a majority of Ohio Democratic primary voters thought that overall, trade with other countries “takes away U.S. jobs.” In Michigan, those voters backed Sanders 56 to 41 percent. In Ohio, they voted for Clinton, 55 to 45 percent.
Among voters who said that they were “very worried” about the direction of the nation’s economy over in the next few years—about a third of the Ohio Democratic primary electorate—they supported Clinton 53 to 44 percent. In Michigan, those “very worried” voters backed Sanders 58 to 40 percent.
Sanders has also made the case that the nation needs a single-payer healthcare system, a proposal that Clinton has sharply criticized, saying that pushing for it would jeopardize the hard-won healthcare reforms of President Barack Obama’s first terms. In Michigan, among Democratic primary voters who said healthcare “mattered most in deciding” how to vote, Sanders and Clinton were tied. In Ohio, Clinton carried those concerned about healthcare, 59 to 41 percent.
And after performing well on these issues, Clinton carried working-class and middle-class voters. Among those in families with incomes last year between $30,000 and $49,999, Clinton narrowly beat Sanders 52 to 47 percent. In Michigan, Sanders won that income category, 54 to 44 percent. Among those in Ohio families earning $50,000 to $99,999, Clinton won 57 to 43 percent. In Michigan, Sanders narrowly carried those Democratic primary voters, 50 to 47 percent. Sanders and Clinton split the vote 50-50, among those in Ohio families earning $100,000 or more.
The racial split that has appeared in some other Democratic primaries this year was less sharp in Ohio. Clinton easily carried African American in Ohio 70 to 28 percent. But she also bested Sanders among white voters, 53 to 47 percent.
Sanders’ economic themes played a better in Illinois and Missouri according to the exit polls, but he also failed to capitalize on the concerns in either state the way he did in Michigan. And in both states he failed to draw support from working class voters the way he did in Michigan.
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov.
See also
- March 15 presidential primary elections and caucuses, 2016
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Miami CNN Republican Debate (March 10, 2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
