Competitiveness in State Legislative Elections: 1972-2014 (Data)
From Ballotpedia
- Main analysis: Competitiveness in State Legislative Elections: 1972-2014
Figure 1
Figure 1: Pop. % with Marginal Races | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | State Senate 5% Marginality | State Senate 10% Marginality | State House 5% Marginality | State House 10% Marginality |
1968 | 5.4 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 15.5 |
1969 | 31.6 | 31.6 | 9.7 | 23.4 |
1970 | 10.3 | 20.3 | 9.4 | 17.6 |
1971 | 9.3 | 21.4 | 14.2 | 26.6 |
1972 | 8.8 | 16.9 | 9.7 | 17.9 |
1973 | 6.1 | 29.2 | 13.5 | 25.9 |
1974 | 10.1 | 17.3 | 9.1 | 17.6 |
1975 | 6.9 | 14.3 | 9.0 | 17.3 |
1976 | 13.0 | 21.8 | 6.7 | 14.7 |
1977 | 6.2 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 20.9 |
1978 | 6.8 | 13.9 | 7.1 | 13.9 |
1979 | 10.5 | 16.9 | 8.3 | 17.9 |
1980 | 9.8 | 17.4 | 6.9 | 13.6 |
1981 | 10.6 | 18.4 | 7.1 | 18.4 |
1982 | 8.9 | 17.2 | 6.8 | 13.7 |
1983 | 8.1 | 16.2 | 5.4 | 11.9 |
1984 | 7.4 | 13.5 | 5.9 | 11.6 |
1985 | 7.3 | 19.8 | ||
1986 | 7.7 | 12.1 | 5.6 | 10.5 |
1987 | 8.7 | 17.2 | 6.7 | 15.9 |
1988 | 5.2 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 10.5 |
1989 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 12.2 | 22.0 |
1990 | 7.7 | 17.7 | 6.3 | 12.5 |
1991 | 12.5 | 23.8 | 8.4 | 18.8 |
1992 | 8.2 | 14.9 | 7.9 | 14.3 |
1993 | 12.7 | 17.7 | 6.1 | 13.4 |
1994 | 8.7 | 16.7 | 7.2 | 13.3 |
1995 | 9.6 | 24.0 | 5.8 | 15.9 |
1996 | 9.2 | 15.8 | 6.7 | 12.6 |
1997 | 2.5 | 17.7 | 7.3 | 11.6 |
1998 | 4.6 | 11.4 | 4.8 | 10.3 |
1999 | 5.2 | 10.3 | 5.0 | 8.1 |
2000 | 6.4 | 12.7 | 4.7 | 10.7 |
2001 | 10.0 | 15.0 | 5.2 | 13.4 |
2002 | 5.7 | 12.5 | 5.4 | 11.0 |
2003 | 2.4 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 12.0 |
2004 | 5.2 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 10.7 |
2005 | 5.2 | 11.8 | ||
2006 | 7.2 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 11.9 |
2007 | 8.3 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 12.2 |
2008 | 5.7 | 11.3 | 6.5 | 12.4 |
2009 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.2 | 13.4 |
2010 | 7.6 | 14.6 | 6.3 | 13.0 |
2011 | 6.8 | 14.5 | 4.1 | 10.5 |
2012 | 5.4 | 12.3 | 6.9 | 13.9 |
2013 | 7.5 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 14.5 |
2014 | 5.0 | 12.0 | 4.9 | 10.2 |
Figure 2
Figure 2: Pop. % with Marginal Legislative Races | ||
---|---|---|
Year | State Legislature 5% Marginality | State Legislature 10% Marginality |
1968 | 6.9 | 13.8 |
1969 | 13.6 | 24.8 |
1970 | 9.9 | 18.9 |
1971 | 11.5 | 23.8 |
1972 | 9.2 | 17.4 |
1973 | 9.5 | 27.7 |
1974 | 9.6 | 17.4 |
1975 | 8.0 | 15.9 |
1976 | 9.8 | 18.3 |
1977 | 7.3 | 16.4 |
1978 | 7.0 | 13.9 |
1979 | 9.4 | 17.4 |
1980 | 8.3 | 15.4 |
1981 | 8.6 | 18.4 |
1982 | 7.9 | 15.5 |
1983 | 7.1 | 14.6 |
1984 | 6.7 | 12.5 |
1985 | 7.3 | 19.8 |
1986 | 6.7 | 11.3 |
1987 | 7.9 | 16.7 |
1988 | 5.4 | 11.4 |
1989 | 13.2 | 22.8 |
1990 | 7.0 | 15.0 |
1991 | 10.7 | 21.6 |
1992 | 8.0 | 14.6 |
1993 | 9.5 | 15.7 |
1994 | 8.0 | 15.0 |
1995 | 7.7 | 19.9 |
1996 | 8.0 | 14.2 |
1997 | 4.8 | 14.8 |
1998 | 4.7 | 10.9 |
1999 | 5.1 | 9.2 |
2000 | 5.5 | 11.6 |
2001 | 6.9 | 14.0 |
2002 | 5.5 | 11.8 |
2003 | 3.6 | 10.5 |
2004 | 5.1 | 10.1 |
2005 | 5.2 | 11.8 |
2006 | 6.7 | 12.3 |
2007 | 8.0 | 12.8 |
2008 | 6.1 | 11.8 |
2009 | 8.0 | 13.1 |
2010 | 6.9 | 13.8 |
2011 | 5.6 | 12.7 |
2012 | 6.1 | 13.1 |
2013 | 8.1 | 13.5 |
2014 | 4.9 | 11.1 |
Figure 3
Figure 3: Pop. % with Marginal Races vs. % of Southern Democratic Legislators | |||
---|---|---|---|
Year | Southern State Legislature 5% Marginality | Southern State Legislature 10% Marginality | Southern Percent of State Legislature who are Democrats |
1968 | 3.6 | 9.0 | 85.2 |
1969 | 10.0 | 23.0 | 84.4 |
1970 | 5.3 | 11.1 | 85.5 |
1971 | 6.1 | 10.6 | 85.5 |
1972 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 81.6 |
1973 | 10.7 | 20.5 | 81.8 |
1974 | 5.2 | 9.1 | 86.6 |
1975 | 6.7 | 14.1 | 86.6 |
1976 | 5.3 | 9.4 | 87.7 |
1977 | 8.0 | 19.0 | 87.2 |
1978 | 4.1 | 9.2 | 85.1 |
1979 | 9.2 | 16.0 | 83.9 |
1980 | 8.5 | 14.3 | 80.0 |
1981 | 10.0 | 26.0 | 79.5 |
1982 | 5.5 | 9.3 | 81.7 |
1983 | 3.8 | 11.7 | 81.5 |
1984 | 6.1 | 9.9 | 76.9 |
1985 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 77.1 |
1986 | 7.5 | 11.2 | 74.4 |
1987 | 9.3 | 14.5 | 74.0 |
1988 | 6.0 | 11.8 | 71.0 |
1989 | 7.0 | 12.0 | 70.5 |
1990 | 7.2 | 13.3 | 70.2 |
1991 | 11.0 | 21.5 | 68.5 |
1992 | 8.3 | 14.8 | 65.1 |
1993 | 6.0 | 13.0 | 64.4 |
1994 | 7.6 | 13.0 | 58.4 |
1995 | 7.7 | 19.5 | 56.6 |
1996 | 9.9 | 13.9 | 54.9 |
1997 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 54.2 |
1998 | 5.3 | 9.2 | 53.6 |
1999 | 5.3 | 9.5 | 53.7 |
2000 | 4.7 | 10.6 | 52.3 |
2001 | 4.0 | 13.0 | 51.7 |
2002 | 3.7 | 10.7 | 46.9 |
2003 | 2.9 | 8.8 | 46.6 |
2004 | 3.2 | 6.7 | 45.2 |
2005 | 4.0 | 11.0 | 45.1 |
2006 | 4.8 | 8.4 | 45.6 |
2007 | 11.0 | 16.8 | 46.3 |
2008 | 6.0 | 9.8 | 46.5 |
2009 | 9.0 | 13.0 | 46.2 |
2010 | 4.9 | 10.5 | 38.9 |
2011 | 6.6 | 12.8 | 37.2 |
2012 | 3.2 | 7.9 | 36.8 |
2013 | 10.0 | 14.0 | 36.2 |
2014 | 2.5 | 5.9 | 34.2 |
Figure 4
Figure 4: Pop. % in Marginal Non-Southern Legislative Races | ||
---|---|---|
Year | Non-Southern State Legislature 5% Marginality | Non-Southern State Legislature 10% Marginality |
1968 | 8.0 | 15.5 |
1969 | 14.8 | 25.5 |
1970 | 11.0 | 20.8 |
1971 | 17.4 | 38.2 |
1972 | 10.2 | 19.6 |
1973 | 9.3 | 28.9 |
1974 | 11.0 | 20.0 |
1975 | 11.7 | 21.0 |
1976 | 11.2 | 20.9 |
1977 | 7.2 | 15.9 |
1978 | 7.9 | 15.4 |
1979 | 10.0 | 21.6 |
1980 | 8.2 | 15.7 |
1981 | 8.5 | 17.6 |
1982 | 8.7 | 17.6 |
1983 | 13.8 | 20.4 |
1984 | 6.8 | 13.4 |
1985 | 11.3 | 28.8 |
1986 | 6.4 | 11.4 |
1987 | 5.1 | 21.2 |
1988 | 5.2 | 11.3 |
1989 | 17.9 | 31.0 |
1990 | 6.9 | 15.5 |
1991 | 10.0 | 21.9 |
1992 | 7.9 | 14.6 |
1993 | 10.5 | 16.4 |
1994 | 8.1 | 15.8 |
1995 | 7.3 | 22.0 |
1996 | 7.2 | 14.3 |
1997 | 4.2 | 16.4 |
1998 | 4.5 | 11.5 |
1999 | 3.7 | 7.3 |
2000 | 5.8 | 12.0 |
2001 | 8.1 | 14.4 |
2002 | 6.3 | 12.3 |
2003 | 5.0 | 13.8 |
2004 | 5.9 | 11.4 |
2005 | 6.3 | 12.5 |
2006 | 7.5 | 13.8 |
2007 | 1.7 | 4.7 |
2008 | 6.2 | 12.7 |
2009 | 7.1 | 13.1 |
2010 | 7.6 | 15.0 |
2011 | 2.5 | 12.5 |
2012 | 7.4 | 15.5 |
2013 | 7.5 | 13.3 |
2014 | 6.0 | 13.3 |
Figure 5
Figure 5: Pop. % with Uncontested State Legislative Races | ||
---|---|---|
Year | State Senate Percent Uncontested | State House Percent Uncontested |
1971 | 29.3 | 28.0 |
1972 | 21.1 | 21.7 |
1973 | 11.7 | 22.2 |
1974 | 24.1 | 27.6 |
1975 | 55.2 | 37.0 |
1976 | 25.7 | 29.4 |
1977 | 11.6 | 28.2 |
1978 | 25.4 | 31.0 |
1979 | 41.4 | 35.1 |
1980 | 23.9 | 31.6 |
1981 | 17.8 | 28.0 |
1982 | 27.6 | 28.9 |
1983 | 32.8 | 39.5 |
1984 | 30.5 | 33.1 |
1985 | 25.7 | |
1986 | 29.2 | 33.2 |
1987 | 33.9 | 41.9 |
1988 | 31.9 | 34.1 |
1989 | 0.0 | 25.9 |
1990 | 25.5 | 33.2 |
1991 | 20.9 | 26.5 |
1992 | 27.4 | 28.4 |
1993 | 10.1 | 19.9 |
1994 | 26.8 | 33.1 |
1995 | 36.8 | 29.0 |
1996 | 27.3 | 30.1 |
1997 | 10.1 | 28.8 |
1998 | 32.4 | 37.4 |
1999 | 55.6 | 38.3 |
2000 | 32.2 | 36.0 |
2001 | 10.0 | 22.7 |
2002 | 36.3 | 35.0 |
2003 | 28.7 | 38.3 |
2004 | 35.7 | 37.0 |
2005 | 28.3 | |
2006 | 29.0 | 36.2 |
2007 | 32.0 | 39.7 |
2008 | 34.6 | 37.0 |
2009 | 0.0 | 20.4 |
2010 | 23.8 | 33.0 |
2011 | 29.4 | 39.1 |
2012 | 36.1 | 36.4 |
2013 | 5.0 | 23.4 |
2014 | 32.8 | 40.4 |
Figure 6
Figure 6: Pop. % with Uncontested State Legislative Races by Region | |||
---|---|---|---|
Year | State Legislature Percent Uncontested | Non-Southern State Legislature Percent Uncontested | Southern State Legislature Percent Uncontested |
1971 | 28.7 | 12.3 | 43.7 |
1972 | 21.4 | 12.0 | 50.3 |
1973 | 16.6 | 13.2 | 36.1 |
1974 | 25.8 | 16.2 | 57.6 |
1975 | 45.6 | 22.9 | 58.6 |
1976 | 27.5 | 17.5 | 60.5 |
1977 | 19.5 | 14.1 | 49.0 |
1978 | 28.2 | 18.4 | 59.2 |
1979 | 38.1 | 26.3 | 44.8 |
1980 | 28.0 | 21.2 | 51.7 |
1981 | 23.5 | 21.1 | 46.0 |
1982 | 28.2 | 18.7 | 56.3 |
1983 | 35.3 | 7.7 | 54.9 |
1984 | 31.8 | 20.6 | 64.5 |
1985 | 25.7 | 1.3 | 58.0 |
1986 | 31.2 | 23.5 | 54.6 |
1987 | 36.8 | 9.3 | 59.0 |
1988 | 33.0 | 24.3 | 59.4 |
1989 | 25.2 | 1.2 | 57.0 |
1990 | 29.5 | 22.8 | 52.1 |
1991 | 23.2 | 3.1 | 37.8 |
1992 | 27.9 | 20.0 | 48.7 |
1993 | 14.8 | 8.4 | 38.0 |
1994 | 29.9 | 21.4 | 51.8 |
1995 | 32.8 | 4.9 | 40.3 |
1996 | 28.7 | 21.0 | 49.9 |
1997 | 19.1 | 8.8 | 56.0 |
1998 | 34.9 | 27.4 | 55.2 |
1999 | 46.7 | 4.9 | 57.8 |
2000 | 34.3 | 27.4 | 55.0 |
2001 | 18.2 | 8.1 | 42.0 |
2002 | 35.7 | 28.5 | 53.0 |
2003 | 32.2 | 6.3 | 52.4 |
2004 | 36.4 | 27.3 | 59.1 |
2005 | 28.3 | 7.5 | 52.0 |
2006 | 32.6 | 24.7 | 52.7 |
2007 | 34.8 | 9.3 | 53.5 |
2008 | 35.8 | 27.6 | 55.9 |
2009 | 19.9 | 6.0 | 36.0 |
2010 | 28.7 | 21.2 | 49.2 |
2011 | 33.5 | 1.9 | 48.9 |
2012 | 36.2 | 28.9 | 52.1 |
2013 | 14.1 | 4.2 | 46.0 |
2014 | 36.7 | 28.3 | 56.4 |
Figure 7
Figure 7: Incumbency Win and Run Rates in State Legislative Races | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | State Senate Incumbent Re-election Percent | State Senate Incumbent Run Percent | State House Incumbent Re-election Percent | State House Incumbent Run Percent |
1971 | 89.1 | 58.0 | 89.2 | 61.7 |
1972 | 92.4 | 66.7 | 92.1 | 71.4 |
1973 | 66.6 | 60.4 | 81.2 | 70.1 |
1974 | 87.2 | 70.0 | 90.2 | 74.5 |
1975 | 91.0 | 72.0 | 91.7 | 76.2 |
1976 | 89.7 | 73.1 | 95.5 | 79.1 |
1977 | 84.4 | 66.0 | 96.5 | 76.1 |
1978 | 92.9 | 67.2 | 93.6 | 77.2 |
1979 | 92.5 | 74.5 | 92.0 | 80.4 |
1980 | 90.2 | 76.5 | 94.0 | 82.5 |
1981 | 91.2 | 68.8 | 94.8 | 75.4 |
1982 | 93.0 | 69.5 | 93.0 | 74.8 |
1983 | 92.6 | 79.7 | 94.6 | 82.1 |
1984 | 92.0 | 80.2 | 95.6 | 85.5 |
1985 | 87.5 | 92.4 | ||
1986 | 96.6 | 79.0 | 96.8 | 84.3 |
1987 | 93.2 | 85.3 | 95.4 | 79.0 |
1988 | 96.8 | 80.0 | 96.5 | 87.5 |
1989 | 0.0 | 94.7 | 88.9 | |
1990 | 92.5 | 79.3 | 94.6 | 84.1 |
1991 | 81.5 | 72.7 | 86.5 | 77.5 |
1992 | 92.9 | 70.2 | 94.5 | 72.7 |
1993 | 91.3 | 87.3 | 94.4 | 85.7 |
1994 | 91.9 | 72.6 | 92.8 | 78.0 |
1995 | 83.0 | 85.2 | 94.7 | 85.6 |
1996 | 95.7 | 69.2 | 96.6 | 80.5 |
1997 | 94.0 | 84.8 | 99.5 | 85.9 |
1998 | 95.8 | 72.3 | 97.4 | 79.2 |
1999 | 95.7 | 81.1 | 96.8 | 89.3 |
2000 | 95.8 | 71.9 | 97.9 | 77.6 |
2001 | 91.2 | 85.0 | 95.0 | 77.1 |
2002 | 94.4 | 66.7 | 96.2 | 73.4 |
2003 | 97.5 | 80.0 | 96.1 | 82.3 |
2004 | 96.6 | 72.8 | 97.1 | 81.2 |
2005 | 96.1 | 87.5 | ||
2006 | 96.4 | 69.7 | 96.8 | 76.8 |
2007 | 91.3 | 70.8 | 97.6 | 76.9 |
2008 | 97.1 | 69.7 | 97.6 | 78.1 |
2009 | 0.0 | 94.9 | 83.7 | |
2010 | 90.9 | 60.1 | 91.5 | 76.3 |
2011 | 95.8 | 80.7 | 95.7 | 79.6 |
2012 | 96.7 | 66.5 | 95.4 | 71.3 |
2013 | 100.0 | 97.5 | 97.4 | 85.5 |
2014 | 97.2 | 69.4 | 96.0 | 78.1 |
Figure 8
Figure 8: Incumbency Win and Run Trends in State Legislative Races | ||
---|---|---|
Year | State Legislature Incumbent Re-election Percent | State Legislature Incumbent Run Percent |
1971 | 89.2 | 59.7 |
1972 | 92.2 | 68.9 |
1973 | 73.9 | 64.8 |
1974 | 88.7 | 72.3 |
1975 | 91.4 | 74.2 |
1976 | 92.7 | 76.1 |
1977 | 90.6 | 70.7 |
1978 | 93.3 | 72.2 |
1979 | 92.3 | 77.6 |
1980 | 92.3 | 79.7 |
1981 | 93.3 | 72.5 |
1982 | 93.0 | 72.0 |
1983 | 93.4 | 80.5 |
1984 | 93.9 | 83.0 |
1985 | 87.5 | 92.4 |
1986 | 96.7 | 81.6 |
1987 | 94.0 | 83.0 |
1988 | 96.7 | 83.7 |
1989 | 94.7 | 86.4 |
1990 | 93.6 | 81.8 |
1991 | 83.7 | 74.7 |
1992 | 93.7 | 71.4 |
1993 | 92.8 | 86.5 |
1994 | 92.4 | 75.2 |
1995 | 89.0 | 85.4 |
1996 | 96.2 | 74.8 |
1997 | 96.7 | 85.3 |
1998 | 96.6 | 75.8 |
1999 | 96.3 | 85.4 |
2000 | 97.0 | 75.0 |
2001 | 93.6 | 79.8 |
2002 | 95.3 | 69.9 |
2003 | 96.9 | 80.9 |
2004 | 96.8 | 77.1 |
2005 | 96.1 | 87.5 |
2006 | 96.6 | 73.2 |
2007 | 93.7 | 73.0 |
2008 | 97.4 | 74.0 |
2009 | 94.9 | 81.5 |
2010 | 91.2 | 68.7 |
2011 | 95.8 | 80.2 |
2012 | 96.1 | 68.8 |
2013 | 98.8 | 91.6 |
2014 | 96.5 | 73.8 |
Figure 9
Figure 9: U.S. House Marginal Races | ||
---|---|---|
Year | U.S. House 5% Marginality | U.S. House 10% Marginality |
1946 | 7.9 | 20.8 |
1948 | 14.1 | 26.3 |
1950 | 10.5 | 20.7 |
1952 | 9.3 | 19.0 |
1954 | 8.4 | 21.4 |
1956 | 9.8 | 20.4 |
1958 | 12.8 | 23.9 |
1960 | 9.7 | 19.6 |
1962 | 8.3 | 17.1 |
1964 | 13.2 | 25.0 |
1966 | 10.2 | 16.4 |
1968 | 5.8 | 15.0 |
1970 | 6.3 | 12.1 |
1972 | 5.8 | 12.2 |
1974 | 9.4 | 20.7 |
1976 | 8.1 | 14.7 |
1978 | 6.9 | 15.2 |
1980 | 8.5 | 15.9 |
1982 | 7.9 | 16.4 |
1984 | 6.4 | 12.6 |
1986 | 5.8 | 10.4 |
1988 | 3.5 | 7.1 |
1990 | 6.5 | 11.5 |
1992 | 9.5 | 18.5 |
1994 | 9.9 | 19.6 |
1996 | 9.4 | 18.0 |
1998 | 3.7 | 9.7 |
2000 | 4.4 | 9.7 |
2002 | 4.9 | 8.4 |
2004 | 2.3 | 4.9 |
2006 | 8.1 | 14.0 |
2008 | 5.6 | 11.1 |
2010 | 8.3 | 18.7 |
2012 | 6.6 | 14.4 |
2014 | 5.1 | 10.2 |
Figure 10
Figure 10: U.S. Senate Marginal Races | ||
---|---|---|
Year | U.S. Senate 5% Marginality | U.S. Senate Marginality |
1940 | 17.1 | 28.6 |
1942 | 11.8 | 29.4 |
1944 | 28.6 | 40.0 |
1946 | 11.1 | 25.0 |
1948 | 15.2 | 18.2 |
1950 | 8.3 | 41.7 |
1952 | 28.6 | 57.1 |
1954 | 23.7 | 34.2 |
1956 | 11.4 | 42.9 |
1958 | 20.6 | 32.4 |
1960 | 17.6 | 29.4 |
1962 | 23.1 | 48.7 |
1964 | 22.9 | 42.9 |
1966 | 8.6 | 25.7 |
1968 | 17.6 | 41.2 |
1970 | 17.1 | 34.3 |
1972 | 15.2 | 48.5 |
1974 | 26.5 | 41.2 |
1976 | 12.1 | 30.3 |
1978 | 17.6 | 26.5 |
1980 | 39.4 | 54.5 |
1982 | 21.2 | 33.3 |
1984 | 18.8 | 18.8 |
1986 | 29.4 | 41.2 |
1988 | 21.2 | 33.3 |
1990 | 8.8 | 26.5 |
1992 | 17.6 | 38.2 |
1994 | 11.4 | 22.9 |
1996 | 12.1 | 45.5 |
1998 | 14.7 | 23.5 |
2000 | 23.5 | 29.4 |
2002 | 17.6 | 26.5 |
2004 | 20.6 | 23.5 |
2006 | 12.1 | 18.2 |
2008 | 11.4 | 25.7 |
2010 | 13.5 | 16.2 |
2012 | 12.1 | 33.3 |
2014 | 13.9 | 19.4 |
Figure 11
Figure 11: Pop. % in Marginal Presidential Elections | |||
---|---|---|---|
Year | States in Presidential Elections 5% Marginality | States in Presidential Elections 10% Marginality | Percent of National Presidential Vote Obtained by the Democratic Candidate |
1932 | 14.0 | 27.3 | 59.2 |
1936 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 62.5 |
1940 | 42.2 | 56.6 | 55.0 |
1944 | 35.9 | 60.0 | 53.8 |
1948 | 54.8 | 61.3 | 52.4 |
1952 | 10.0 | 38.5 | 44.6 |
1956 | 7.1 | 14.6 | 42.2 |
1960 | 51.8 | 80.9 | 50.1 |
1964 | 4.2 | 11.1 | 61.3 |
1968 | 43.8 | 67.6 | 49.6 |
1972 | 0.0 | 7.5 | 38.2 |
1976 | 58.6 | 78.0 | 51.1 |
1980 | 27.4 | 48.1 | 44.7 |
1984 | 4.6 | 22.3 | 40.8 |
1988 | 38.4 | 50.7 | 46.1 |
1992 | 29.5 | 52.5 | 53.5 |
1996 | 13.1 | 44.4 | 54.7 |
2000 | 25.8 | 40.9 | 50.3 |
2004 | 20.9 | 38.5 | 48.8 |
2008 | 17.3 | 30.1 | 53.7 |
2012 | 15.6 | 37.4 | 52.0 |
Figure 12
Figure 12: Pop. % with Marginal Gubernatorial Election Results | ||
---|---|---|
Year | Gubernatorial 5% Marginality | Gubernatorial 10% Marginality |
1935-1938 | 27.3 | 51.9 |
1939-1942 | 17.2 | 38.6 |
1943-1946 | 20.8 | 33.9 |
1947-1950 | 15.4 | 35.4 |
1951-1954 | 21.7 | 48.1 |
1955-1958 | 20.9 | 35.9 |
1959-1962 | 26.8 | 57.2 |
1963-1966 | 14.2 | 35.2 |
1967-1970 | 18.5 | 52.5 |
1971-1974 | 37.2 | 48.4 |
1975-1978 | 15.8 | 40.0 |
1979-1982 | 35.3 | 56.4 |
1983-1986 | 12.1 | 40.7 |
1987-1990 | 38.9 | 51.0 |
1991-1994 | 28.4 | 51.4 |
1995-1998 | 18.8 | 30.5 |
1999-2002 | 19.8 | 58.4 |
2003-2006 | 9.2 | 27.8 |
2007-2010 | 26.2 | 38.3 |
2011-2014 | 28.8 | 43.7 |
Figure 13
Figure 13: Non-Southern Pop. % with Marginal Gubernatorial Election Results | ||
---|---|---|
Year | Non-Southern Gubernatorial 5% Marginality | Non-Southern Gubernatorial 10% Marginality |
1935-1938 | 35.3 | 67.2 |
1939-1942 | 23.2 | 52.1 |
1943-1946 | 27.5 | 44.7 |
1947-1950 | 20.6 | 47.4 |
1951-1954 | 29.2 | 64.6 |
1955-1958 | 27.1 | 46.5 |
1959-1962 | 35.5 | 67.3 |
1963-1966 | 17.0 | 44.8 |
1967-1970 | 24.3 | 54.7 |
1971-1974 | 37.6 | 53.5 |
1975-1978 | 13.6 | 44.7 |
1979-1982 | 45.3 | 60.9 |
1983-1986 | 15.1 | 29.4 |
1987-1990 | 39.0 | 48.5 |
1991-1994 | 23.0 | 39.1 |
1995-1998 | 26.7 | 37.3 |
1999-2002 | 21.8 | 61.7 |
2003-2006 | 11.1 | 24.2 |
2007-2010 | 22.7 | 40.3 |
2011-2014 | 31.2 | 47.4 |
Appendix A1
State Senate Competitiveness | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | 5% Marginality, Percentage of Elections | 10% Marginality, Percentage of Elections | 5% Marginality, Percentage of Populations | 10% Marginality, Percentage of Populations |
1968 | 9.5 | 18.3 | 5.4 | 12.0 |
1969 | 31.6 | 31.6 | 31.6 | 31.6 |
1970 | 11.1 | 21.4 | 10.3 | 20.3 |
1971 | 7.9 | 18.5 | 9.3 | 21.4 |
1972 | 10.4 | 20.7 | 8.8 | 16.9 |
1973 | 5.0 | 26.7 | 6.1 | 29.2 |
1974 | 10.5 | 20.3 | 10.1 | 17.3 |
1975 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 14.3 |
1976 | 10.7 | 19.8 | 13.0 | 21.8 |
1977 | 5.1 | 10.2 | 6.2 | 12.3 |
1978 | 8.2 | 15.8 | 6.8 | 13.9 |
1979 | 8.6 | 13.8 | 10.5 | 16.9 |
1980 | 10.9 | 19.4 | 9.8 | 17.4 |
1981 | 11.5 | 19.7 | 10.6 | 18.4 |
1982 | 9.1 | 17.2 | 8.9 | 17.2 |
1983 | 7.3 | 15.7 | 8.1 | 16.2 |
1984 | 9.4 | 16.0 | 7.4 | 13.5 |
1985 | ||||
1986 | 6.8 | 14.2 | 7.7 | 12.1 |
1987 | 8.8 | 15.2 | 8.7 | 17.2 |
1988 | 7.6 | 16.4 | 5.2 | 12.3 |
1989 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
1990 | 9.0 | 19.3 | 7.7 | 17.7 |
1991 | 9.4 | 17.0 | 12.5 | 23.8 |
1992 | 9.4 | 17.6 | 8.2 | 14.9 |
1993 | 12.5 | 17.5 | 12.7 | 17.7 |
1994 | 8.7 | 16.6 | 8.7 | 16.7 |
1995 | 9.1 | 20.5 | 9.6 | 24.0 |
1996 | 7.8 | 15.5 | 9.2 | 15.8 |
1997 | 2.5 | 17.5 | 2.5 | 17.7 |
1998 | 5.6 | 12.7 | 4.6 | 11.4 |
1999 | 5.3 | 10.6 | 5.2 | 10.3 |
2000 | 6.9 | 14.8 | 6.4 | 12.7 |
2001 | 10.0 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 15.0 |
2002 | 7.9 | 15.3 | 5.7 | 12.5 |
2003 | 2.9 | 9.9 | 2.4 | 9.5 |
2004 | 7.4 | 14.0 | 5.2 | 9.4 |
2005 | ||||
2006 | 8.3 | 15.6 | 7.2 | 12.7 |
2007 | 8.2 | 13.5 | 8.3 | 13.2 |
2008 | 7.2 | 14.1 | 5.7 | 11.3 |
2009 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
2010 | 9.0 | 18.2 | 7.6 | 14.6 |
2011 | 6.4 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 14.5 |
2012 | 7.6 | 16.7 | 5.4 | 12.3 |
2013 | 7.5 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 12.5 |
2014 | 6.0 | 12.7 | 5.0 | 12.0 |
Appendix A2
State House Competitiveness | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | 5% Marginality, Percentage of Elections | 10% Marginality, Percentage of Elections | 5% Marginality, Percentage of Populations | 10% Marginality, Percentage of Populations |
1968 | 9.3 | 18.2 | 8.4 | 15.5 |
1969 | 11.4 | 23.9 | 9.7 | 23.4 |
1970 | 10.4 | 19.8 | 9.4 | 17.6 |
1971 | 11.3 | 20.9 | 14.2 | 26.6 |
1972 | 11.0 | 20.2 | 9.7 | 17.9 |
1973 | 10.7 | 21.1 | 13.5 | 25.9 |
1974 | 10.2 | 19.1 | 9.1 | 17.6 |
1975 | 6.7 | 13.4 | 9.0 | 17.3 |
1976 | 8.3 | 16.9 | 6.7 | 14.7 |
1977 | 7.5 | 18.2 | 8.6 | 20.9 |
1978 | 8.6 | 15.8 | 7.1 | 13.9 |
1979 | 7.7 | 15.6 | 8.3 | 17.9 |
1980 | 8.1 | 15.7 | 6.9 | 13.6 |
1981 | 7.5 | 18.9 | 7.1 | 18.4 |
1982 | 8.0 | 15.9 | 6.8 | 13.7 |
1983 | 4.9 | 10.8 | 5.4 | 11.9 |
1984 | 7.4 | 14.3 | 5.9 | 11.6 |
1985 | 6.1 | 17.2 | 7.3 | 19.8 |
1986 | 6.8 | 12.9 | 5.6 | 10.5 |
1987 | 6.1 | 14.5 | 6.7 | 15.9 |
1988 | 7.0 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 10.5 |
1989 | 11.1 | 20.0 | 12.2 | 22.0 |
1990 | 7.9 | 15.5 | 6.3 | 12.5 |
1991 | 7.1 | 16.5 | 8.4 | 18.8 |
1992 | 9.1 | 17.3 | 7.9 | 14.3 |
1993 | 6.1 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 13.4 |
1994 | 7.8 | 15.2 | 7.2 | 13.3 |
1995 | 5.2 | 14.3 | 5.8 | 15.9 |
1996 | 7.4 | 14.4 | 6.7 | 12.6 |
1997 | 7.2 | 11.1 | 7.3 | 11.6 |
1998 | 6.1 | 11.9 | 4.8 | 10.3 |
1999 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 8.1 |
2000 | 6.6 | 13.2 | 4.7 | 10.7 |
2001 | 5.0 | 13.3 | 5.2 | 13.4 |
2002 | 7.2 | 14.6 | 5.4 | 11.0 |
2003 | 4.4 | 10.6 | 5.4 | 12.0 |
2004 | 7.7 | 14.7 | 5.1 | 10.7 |
2005 | 5.0 | 11.7 | 5.2 | 11.8 |
2006 | 8.5 | 16.0 | 6.3 | 11.9 |
2007 | 7.1 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 12.2 |
2008 | 7.5 | 14.5 | 6.5 | 12.4 |
2009 | 8.3 | 13.3 | 8.2 | 13.4 |
2010 | 8.1 | 16.2 | 6.3 | 13.0 |
2011 | 4.4 | 10.3 | 4.1 | 10.5 |
2012 | 8.1 | 16.2 | 6.9 | 13.9 |
2013 | 8.9 | 14.4 | 8.7 | 14.5 |
2014 | 6.5 | 13.1 | 4.9 | 10.2 |
Appendix A3
State Legislature Competitiveness | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | 5% Marginality, Percentage of Elections | 10% Marginality, Percentage of Elections | 5% Marginality, Percentage of Populations | 10% Marginality, Percentage of Populations |
1968 | 9.3 | 18.2 | 6.9 | 13.8 |
1969 | 12.7 | 24.4 | 13.6 | 24.8 |
1970 | 10.5 | 20.1 | 9.9 | 18.9 |
1971 | 10.4 | 20.2 | 11.5 | 23.8 |
1972 | 10.9 | 20.3 | 9.2 | 17.4 |
1973 | 9.7 | 22.1 | 9.5 | 27.7 |
1974 | 10.3 | 19.4 | 9.6 | 17.4 |
1975 | 6.5 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 15.9 |
1976 | 8.8 | 17.5 | 9.8 | 18.3 |
1977 | 7.1 | 16.8 | 7.3 | 16.4 |
1978 | 8.5 | 15.8 | 7.0 | 13.9 |
1979 | 7.9 | 15.2 | 9.4 | 17.4 |
1980 | 8.7 | 16.5 | 8.3 | 15.4 |
1981 | 8.2 | 19.1 | 8.6 | 18.4 |
1982 | 8.2 | 16.1 | 7.9 | 15.5 |
1983 | 5.7 | 12.5 | 7.1 | 14.6 |
1984 | 7.8 | 14.6 | 6.7 | 12.5 |
1985 | 6.1 | 17.2 | 7.3 | 19.8 |
1986 | 6.8 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 11.3 |
1987 | 6.9 | 14.7 | 7.9 | 16.7 |
1988 | 7.1 | 13.8 | 5.4 | 11.4 |
1989 | 11.5 | 20.3 | 13.2 | 22.8 |
1990 | 8.1 | 16.2 | 7.0 | 15.0 |
1991 | 7.8 | 16.6 | 10.7 | 21.6 |
1992 | 9.2 | 17.4 | 8.0 | 14.6 |
1993 | 7.3 | 14.1 | 9.5 | 15.7 |
1994 | 8.0 | 15.5 | 8.0 | 15.0 |
1995 | 6.1 | 15.8 | 7.7 | 19.9 |
1996 | 7.4 | 14.6 | 8.0 | 14.2 |
1997 | 6.4 | 12.3 | 4.8 | 14.8 |
1998 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 4.7 | 10.9 |
1999 | 5.0 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 9.2 |
2000 | 6.7 | 13.5 | 5.5 | 11.6 |
2001 | 5.9 | 13.6 | 6.9 | 14.0 |
2002 | 7.4 | 14.8 | 5.5 | 11.8 |
2003 | 4.0 | 10.4 | 3.6 | 10.5 |
2004 | 7.7 | 14.6 | 5.1 | 10.1 |
2005 | 5.0 | 11.7 | 5.2 | 11.8 |
2006 | 8.5 | 15.9 | 6.7 | 12.3 |
2007 | 7.4 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 12.8 |
2008 | 7.4 | 14.4 | 6.1 | 11.8 |
2009 | 8.2 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 13.1 |
2010 | 8.2 | 16.5 | 6.9 | 13.8 |
2011 | 5.0 | 11.1 | 5.6 | 12.7 |
2012 | 8.0 | 16.3 | 6.1 | 13.1 |
2013 | 8.6 | 14.1 | 8.1 | 13.5 |
2014 | 6.4 | 13.1 | 4.9 | 11.1 |
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