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Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 8, 2018

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2018 State Election Analysis
All state elections
Statewide ballot measures • State government trifectas • Trifecta vulnerability • Veto-proof state legislatures • Noteworthy third party candidates • Officials seeking other offices • Incumbent win rates
State legislative elections
Battleground chambers • Partisan balance of chambers • Number of state legislators by party • Supermajorities • Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report • Open seats • Incumbents defeated • Races decided by fewer than 100 votes • State legislative seats flipped • State legislative margins of victory
State executive elections
State government triplexes • Partisan balance of governors • Annual State Executive Competitiveness Report • Impact of term limits on state executive elections in 2018 • States with gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections • Prediction markets • Battleground polls
State judicial elections
Federal election analysis
Local election analysis
All election results

Ballotpedia's 8th Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report analyzes the features of all 6,065 state legislative elections that took place in November 2018. Key findings include:

HIGHLIGHTS
  • 2,046 state legislative elections did not have major party competition; they featured a candidate from just one of the two major political parties.
  • Democratic candidates contested more state legislative elections than in any even-year cycle since 2010; Republicans contested fewer than in any even-year cycle since 2010.
  • 1,194 state legislative incumbents did not seek re-election. A total of 743 were Republicans, 443 were Democrats, and eight were minor party or independent officeholders.
  • Nearly one-fifth of state legislators elected in 2018 were guaranteed to be newcomers.

    • This report is organized into four sections. They are:

    Competitiveness overview

    Competitiveness refers to the presence of choice throughout the election cycle. A greater level of competitiveness means voters have the ability to make more decisions. A lower level of competitiveness equals fewer choices.

    Ballotpedia uses three factors to determine state legislative competitiveness:

    These percentages are averaged to produce a State Legislative Competitiveness Index, which can range from zero (least competitive) to 100 (most competitive).

    The table below shows the Competitiveness Indices from 2010 to 2018 as well as the three factors used to calculate the indices. Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's methodology used when calculating Competitiveness Indices.

    See also: Comparing the competitiveness index for state legislative elections
    State legislative Competitiveness Indices, 2010-2018
    2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 AVERAGE
    Competitiveness Index 34.6 35.2 30.8 31.7 36.1 33.7
    Open seats 18.7% 21.9% 16.8% 17.4% 19.7% 18.9%
    Inc. in contested primaries 20.0% 23.3% 19.5% 20.2% 22.2% 21.0%
    Seats with major party competition 65.0% 60.4% 56.0% 57.6% 66.3% 61.1%

    Open seats

    See also: Open seats in state legislative elections, 2018

    There were 6,065 state legislative seats up for election on November 6, 2018, in 46 states. Of that total, there were 1,194 open seats, guaranteeing at least 20% of all seats would be won by newcomers. This was the second-highest number and percentage of open seats since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010.

    Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of open seats to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A greater number of open seats guarantees more newcomers entering legislatures and typically results in more candidates running for office. A smaller number of open seats guarantees fewer newcomers and typically results in fewer candidates running for office.

    In 2018:

  • There were 443 open Democratic seats, those most recently held by Democrats at the time of filing.
  • There were 743 open Republican seats, those most recently held by Republicans at the time of filing.
  • There were eight other open seats. This includes those most recently held by minor party or independent officeholders at the time of filing.
  • The total number of open seats—1,194—was the second-highest since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010, representing a 16% increase from 2016.



    • Open state legislative seats, 2018
    Chamber Seats
    Democratic Republican Other Total
    # %
    House 4,956 362 577 5 944 19.0%
    Senate 1,109 81 166 3 250 22.5%
    Total 6,065 443 743 8 1,194 19.7%

    Historical comparison

    The chart below shows a breakdown of open seats from 2010 to 2018. The "Other" value includes seats left open by minor party and independent officeholders.

    Incumbents in contested primaries

    See also: State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2018

    There were 6,065 state legislative seats up for election on November 6, 2018, in 46 states. Overall, 4,874 incumbents filed for re-election and were running at the time of their respective primaries. Of that total, 1,082 incumbents faced contested primaries, representing 22% of all incumbents who filed for re-election. This was the second-largest number and percentage of incumbents in contested primaries since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010.

    Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of incumbents in contested primaries to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of contested primaries indicates more opportunities for voters to elect a non-incumbent to office. A smaller number indicates fewer of those opportunities.

    In 2018:

  • There were 491 Democratic incumbents in contested primaries, representing 23% of all Democratic incumbents who filed for re-election, a 22% increase from 2016.
  • There were 590 Republican incumbents in contested primaries, representing 22% of all Republican incumbents who filed for re-election, a 1% increase from 2016.
  • There was one minor party or independent incumbent in contested primaries, representing 3% of all minor party or independent incumbents who filed for re-election.
  • The total number of incumbents in contested primaries—1,082—was up from 2016 (985), representing a 10% increase.



    • State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2018
    Chamber Seats
    Democratic Republican Total[1]
    Filed Cont. % Filed Cont. % Filed Cont. %
    House 4,956 1,797 394 21.9% 2,190 482 22.0% 4,013 876 21.8%
    Senate 1,109 377 97 25.7% 481 108 22.5% 861 206 23.9%
    Total 6,065 2,174 491 22.6% 2,671 590 22.1% 4,874 1,082 22.2%

    Historical comparison

    The chart below shows a breakdown of incumbents in contested primaries from 2010 to 2018.

    All contested primaries

    See also: Contested state legislative primaries, 2018

    This section shows figures on all contested state legislative primaries, regardless of whether an incumbent was present. There were 5,572 state legislative districts up for election nationwide, creating 10,897 possible primaries. Of that total, there were 2,123 contested primaries, meaning 20% of all primaries were contested. This was the highest number and percentage of contested primaries since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010.

    In 2018:

  • There were 1,005 contested Democratic primaries, representing 19% of all possible Democratic primaries and a 34% increase from 2016.
  • There were 1,011 contested Republican primaries, representing 19% of all possible Republican primaries and an 8% increase from 2016.
  • There were 107 contested top-two/four primaries, representing 43% of all possible top-two/four primaries and a 1% decrease from 2016.
  • The total number of contested primaries—2,123—was higher than 1,800 in 2016, representing an 18% increase.



    • Contested state legislative primaries, 2018
    Chamber Districts
    Democratic Republican Top-two/four Total
    # % # % # % # %
    House 4,520 788 18.1% 812 18.7% 68 38.2% 1,668 18.8%
    Senate 1,052 217 22.1% 199 20.2% 39 56.5% 455 22.4%
    Total 5,572 1,005 18.9% 1,011 19.0% 107 43.3% 2,123 19.5%

    The chart below shows a breakdown of contested primaries from 2010 to 2018.

    Major party competition

    See also: Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2018

    There were 6,065 state legislative seats up for election on November 6, 2018, in 46 states. Of that total, 2,046 (34%) were uncontested and had no major party competition. The remaining 4,019 (66%) were contested by both major parties. This was the smallest number and percentage of seats with no major party competition since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010.

    Ballotpedia uses the level of major party competition to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of seats without major party competition indicates fewer options on the ballot. A smaller number indicates more options.

    In 2018:

  • Democrats were guaranteed to win 1,293 seats (21%) that lacked Republican competition, a 2% increase from 2016.
  • Republicans were guaranteed to win 750 seats (12%) that lacked Democratic competition, a 39% decrease from 2016.
  • Overall, Democrats ran for 5,312 seats (88%) and Republicans ran for 4,769 (79%).
  • There were three seats guaranteed to minor party or independent candidates because no major party candidates ran.
  • The total number of seats without major party competition—2,046—was less than in 2016 (2,508), representing an 18% decrease.


    • Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2018
    Chamber Seats
    Uncontested Contested
    Only Democrats Only Republicans Total
    # % # % # % # %
    House 4,956 1,085 21.9% 622 12.6% 1,710 34.5% 3,246 65.5%
    Senate 1,109 208 18.8% 128 11.5% 336 30.3% 773 69.7%
    Total 6,065 1,293 21.3% 750 12.4% 2,046 33.7% 4,019 66.3%

    Historical comparison

    The chart below shows a breakdown of major party competition in state legislative elections from 2010 to 2018.

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ Totals may include minor party or independent officeholders.
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