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Connecticut gubernatorial election, 2010

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In the Connecticut gubernatorial election of 2010, held on November 2, 2010, Democrat Dan Malloy defeated Republican Tom Foley. Incumbent Governor Jodi Rell, a Republican, was term-limited.

Following the August 10, 2010 primary elections, Malloy beat Ned Lamont while Foley defeated Michael Fedele.

The general election and its aftermath was acrimonious, but accelerated. The race was called and then un-called within the first few days. After a challenge from Foley, backed by the Connecticut Republican Party, early recounts still favored Malloy and, on November 8th, Foley formally conceded.

November 2, 2010 general election results

As of December 2, 2010, results are official.[1]

Governor, Lieutenant Governor, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngDan Malloy & Nancy Wyman 49.5% 567,278
     Republican Tom Foley & Mark Boughton 49% 560,874
     Independent Thomas E. Marsh & Cicero B. Booker, Jr. 1.5% 17,629
Total Votes 1,145,781

[2]

Malloy's and Wyman's vote share includes 47.21% as the Democratic nominee and 2.296% as the Working Families Party nominee.

Inauguration and transition

Inaugural date

Governor-elect Dan Malloy and his running mate, Lieutenant Governor-elect Nancy Wyman, were inaugurated on January 5, 2011.

Transition team

As of November 12, 2010, the Malloy staff closed their campaign office They provided info@DanMalloy.org and 860 570 0554 as contact information until the new offices are available.[3]

On November 15, 2010, outgoing Governor Jodi Rell presented a transition budget to Governor-elect Malloy. The budget estimated the deficit Connecticut faced to be $3.4 billion. Malloy said the budget he was due to present to Connecticut's general assembly in February 2011 would reflect the state's financial straits.[4]

Appointments in the Malloy Administration

Malloy named Timothy F. Bannon to be Chief of Staff and Colleen Flanagan as Press Secretary for the transition. Early rumors also had Ben Barnes, a government finance specialist and a former employee of Barnes, presumed to get the nod to head the Office of Policy and Management - a plum position with oversight of the state budget and of labor relations.[5]

August 10, 2010 primary

Initial, official primary results by each town are available.[6]

2010 Race for Governor - Republican Primary
Candidates Percentage
Michael Fedele (R) 38.0%
Tom Foley (R) 43.0%
Oz Grieble (R) 18.9%
Total votes 105,428
2010 Race for Governor - Democrat Primary
Candidates Percentage
Ned Lamont (D) 42.3%
Dan Malloy (D) 57.7%
Total votes 145,234

May 22, 2010 convention endorsements

Party conventions, which are held separately but on the same day, begin the nomination process. Hopeful candidates must either win at least 15% of the vote at their party's convention or gather signatures to appear on the ballot.

Candidates who fail to win the party nomination may still campaign. However, if all losing candidates end their campaigns after the convention, no primary is held and the convention winner becomes the official nominee to the ballot.

As both the Republican and Democratic parties failed to end their conventions with a single gubernatorial nominee, each party was set to have a primary election.

2010 Race for Governor - Republican State Convention
Candidates Percentage
C. Duffy Acevedo (R) 0.36%
Lawrence DiNardis (R) 1.14%
Michael Fedele (R) 30.48%
Tom Foley (R) 50.68%
Oz Grieble (R) 17.34%
Total votes 1,401
2010 Race for Governor - Democrat Primary
Candidates Percentage
Ned Lamont (D) 32.08%
Dan Malloy (D) 67.91%
Total votes 1,814

Race ratings

See also: Gubernatorial elections 2010, Race tracking

2010 Race Rankings Connecticut
Race Tracker Race Rating
The Cook Political Report[7] Toss-up
Congressional Quarterly Politics[8] Toss-up
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] Leans Democrat
Rasmussen Reports Gubernatorial Scorecard[10] Toss-up
The Rothenberg Political Report[11] Lean Democrat
Overall Call Toss-up

Changes

3. Rasmussen moved race from "Leans Democratic" to "Toss-up" following October 17th polling.

1. Rasmussen moved races from "Solid Democratic" back to "Leans Democratic" following September 13th polling.

2. Rasmussen moved race from "Leans Democratic" to "Solid Democratic" following August 16th poll.

Polling

General election polling

CNN/Time

2010 Race for Governor of Connecticut - CNN/Time
Date Reported Malloy (R) Foley (D) Other Don't Know
October 1-5, 2010[12] 42% 50% 5% 2%
(Sample) n=773 MoE=+/- 3.5% p=0.05

Public Policy Polling

2010 Race for Governor of Connecticut - Public Policy Polling
Date Reported Foley (R) Malloy (D) Other Don't Know
September 30 - October 2, 2010[13] 40% 50% - 1-%
(Sample) n=810 MoE=+/- 3.4% p=0.05

Rasmussen

2010 Race for Governor of Connecticut - Rasmussen Reports
Date Reported Foley (R) Malloy (D) Other Don't Know
October 31, 2010[14] 48% 46% 1% 5%
October 24, 2010[15] 46% 49% 2% 4%
October 5, 2010[16] 44% 49% 1% 7%
September 26, 2010[17] 40% 50% 2% 8%
September 13, 2010[18] 39% 46% 3% 12%
August 16, 2010[19] 33% 48% 6% 13%
(Sample)[20] n=500 MoE=+/- 4.5% p=0.05

Primary election polling

2010 Race for Governor of Connecticut - Rasmussen Reports
Date Reported Fedele Lamont Other Don't Know
June 3, 2010[21] 34% 43% 4% 19%
May 6, 2010[22] 28% 48% 9% 15%
April 7, 2010[23] 38% 41% 9% 12%
February 4, 2010[24] 33% 41% 8% 18%
Date Reported Fedele Malloy Other Don't Know
June 3, 2010[25] 28% 42% 4% 25%
May 6, 2010[26] 27% 44% 10% 20%
April 7, 2010[27] 37% 40% 7% 16%
February 4, 2010[28] 35% 36% 9% 21%
Date Reported Foley Malloy Other Don't Know
June 3, 2010[29] 35% 44% 5% 17%
May 6, 2010[30] 35% 38% 11% 16%
April 7, 2010[31] 44% 35% 8% 14%
February 4, 2010[32] 36% 37% 10% 18%
Date Reported Foley Lamont Other Don't Know
June 3, 2010[33] 38% 36% 9% 17%
May 6, 2010[34] 35% 42% 11% 13%
April 7, 2010[35] 44% 37% 7% 13%
February 4, 2010[36] 37% 40% 9% 14%
(Sample)[37] n=500 MoE=+/- 4.5% p=0.05
2010 Race for Governor of Connecticut - Public Policy Polling[38]
Date Reported Fedele Lamont Other Don't Know
January 8, 2010[39] 30% 40% -% 29%
Date Reported Foley Lamont Other Don't Know
January 8, 2010[40] 29% 40% -% 30%
Date Reported Fedele Malloy Other Don't Know
January 8, 2010[41] 27% 37% -% 36%
Date Reported Foley Malloy Other Don't Know
January 8, 2010[42] 27% 37% -% 36%

Candidates

The November Ballot – Who Made It? Connecticut Governor[43]
Nominee Affiliation
Dan Malloy, with Nancy Wyman Democrat
Tom Foley, with Mark Boughton Republican
Thomas E. Marsh, with Cicero B. Booker, Jr. Independent
Dan Malloy, with Nancy Wyman Working Families
This lists candidates who won their state's primary or convention, or who were unopposed, and who were officially certified for the November ballot by their state's election authority.

The complete and official list of candidates is maintained by the Connecticut Secretary of State.[44]

Democratic

  • Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy, a former assistant district attorney, entered the race in the summer of 2009.[45]
  • Former U.S. Senate candidate Ned Lamont had been mentioned as a candidate early on.[46] Currently teaching at Central Connecticut State University, Lamont announced his campaign at Hartford's Old State House on February 16, 2010.[47]

Declined to run

  • Susan Bysiewicz. A Quinnipiac Poll taken in November 2009 indicated that of six potential Democratic Party candidates for the nomination, Bysiewicz led the pack with 26% favoring her candidacy.[46]
  • New Haven Mayor John DeStefano Jr., who ran against Gov. Rell in 2006, said in November 2009 that he would not seek the seat in 2010. He had spent a record $5.6 million in his unsuccessful 2006 bid.[49]

Republican

  • Italian born Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele was pegged as being interested in the race early on. Incumbent Rell had said that she would support him over other Republicans, should he run.[50] Fedele announced his candidacy on December 2, 2009 and released a list of 22 initial endorsement the following day.[51]Prior to serving at the lieutenant governor, Fedele was an IT executive and served in the State House of Representatives for ten years, representing Stamford's 147th District.
  • Tom Foley, the U.S. Ambassador to Ireland from 2006 through 2009, is a former business owner and executive. Foley launched his campaign on December 3 2009 and issued a press release listing his own endorsements the following week.[52]
  • Oz Griebel, an executive in banking and development, kicked off his campaign in February 2010.[53]

Independent

  • Attorney Juan Figueroa, president of the Universal Healthcare Foundation of Connecticut and previous member of the State House for Hartford's 3rd District, built his campaign around the same healthcare issues he has worked for though his foundation.

Background

Republican incumbent Jodi Rell surprised political observers in early November 2009 with her announcement that she would not seek re-election, turning the gubernatorial campaign into an open race.[46]

The Democratic Governors Association soon moved Connecticut into its top tier of targeted 2010 pickup races. Nathan Daschle, executive director of the Democratic Governors Association, said, "We are fortunate to have a strong field of Democratic candidates who are well-known public servants, each of whom has the knowledge, leadership, and judgment to guide the state through these tough economic times."[45]

Although President Obama won Connecticut by 23 points in 2008, and Democrats control both chambers of the Connecticut State Legislature, the governorship has been an elusive prize. Before 2010, the last time a Democrat won the state's top spot was when William O'Neil ran in 1986.[45]

However, with new predictions out at the midpoint of July, predictions for the race moved left. Quinnipiac's July 15th survey of likely voters puts either Democrat ahead of any of three possible Republican match-ups by double digit margins.[54]

Among Republicans, Tom Foley topped the list with 48% of support; his closest rival in the primary, current Lt. Governor Mike Fedele, picked up 13%. The Democratic race was closer, with only nine points dividing Lamont, at 46% and Malloy with 37%. Both parties had, at the time, substantial numbers of uncommitted voters - 16% of Democrats and a very high 32% of Republicans.

The matter of Mr. Foley's previous arrests was the biggest factor is a divisive and bitter GOP primary; however it did not turn off voters enough to keep him from capturing the nomination. Democrats benefited from a comparatively low-key primary, along with an advantage in voter registration and better state-wide name recognition.

Issue positions

Healthcare

Connecticut was one of the few races where the Democrat, Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy, openly embraced ObamaCare in his campaign. On Monday, October 10, 2010 he accused his Republican rival, businessman Tom Foley, of supporting healthcare policies that would deny coverage for pre-existing conditions and block people from getting cancer screenings.

Foley denied it categorically, saying, Malloy is "..."completely making ... stuff up."[55]

Around the same time, Malloy began airing an ad claiming Foley ran a textile mill in Georgia into bankruptcy and cost thousands of employees their healthcare when he sold off the company. Connecticut's Democratic Party timed a round of news releases critical of Foley's position on healthcare to come out the same day.

What Foley proposed is that small companies whose total healthcare costs exceed a certain percentage of their payroll and small companies who have not previously offered health insurance should be given waivers from complying with the most expensive healthcare mandates.

Under his plan, such companies would have to offer basic coverage and catastrophic coverage, while they would have at least a temporary waiver from covering certain screenings for some cancers and for autism.

Campaign advertisements

Tom Foley


Tom Foley for Governor' 'Outsider' ad.

Tom Foley for Governor' 'Leslie' ad.

Dan Malloy


Dan Malloy for Governor' 'Overcoming Adversity' ad.

Dan Malloy for Governor' 'The Early Years' ad.

Republican Governors Association


RGA' 'Dan Malloy - Problem' ad.

Gubernatorial electoral history

1998 Gubernatorial Results[56]
Candidates Percentage
John H. Rowland (R) 62.9%
Barbara B. Kennelly (D) 35.4%
Joseph B. Zdonczyk (CC) 0.9%
Ned Vare (L) 0.6%
Roberta M. Scaglione (TLC) 0.2%
Total votes 999,535
2002 Gubernatorial Results[57]
Candidates Percentage
John Rowland (R) 56.1%
Bill Curry (D) 43.9%
Total votes 1,022,942
2006 Gubernatorial Results[58]
Candidates Percentage
M. Jodi Rell (R) 63.2%
John DeStefano (D) 35.4%
Cliff Thornton (G) 1.8%
Joseph A. Zdonczyk (CC) 0.5%
Total votes 1,123,412

Presidential electoral history

2000 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George W. Bush (R) 38.4%
Al Gore (D) 55.9%
2004 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George W. Bush (R) 43.9%
John Kerry (D) 54.3%
2008 Presidential Results[59]
Candidates Percentage
John McCain (R) 38.2%
Barack Obama (D) 60.6%


1992 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George H.W. Bush (R) 35.8%
Bill Clinton (D) 42.2%
1996 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
Bob Dole (R) 34.7%
Bill Clinton (D) 52.8%

See also

External links

Candidate pages

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Connecticut Secretary of State, "Election Results for Governor and Lieutenant Governor," accessed November 29, 2010 and December 21, 2010
  2. ↑ Connecticut Secretary of State, "2010 General Election Results," accessed January 8, 2013
  3. ↑ Dan Malloy for Governor, "Our New Offices," November 12, 2010
  4. ↑ MSNBC, "Malloy Receives Transition Budget from Rell," November 15, 2010 (dead link)
  5. ↑ The Connecticut Mirror, "Malloy likely to surprise with key appointments," November 17, 2010 (dead link)
  6. ↑ Connecticut Secretary of State, "Election result for governor: summarized by towns," accessed August 11, 2010
  7. ↑ The Cook Political, “Governors: Race Ratings”
  8. ↑ CQ Politics, “2010 Race Ratings: Governors”
  9. ↑ Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball', “2010 Governor Ratings”
  10. ↑ Rasmussen Reports', “Election 2010: Scorecard Ratings”
  11. ↑ Rothenberg Political Report, “Governor Ratings”
  12. ↑ CNN/Time, “CNN/Time Opinion Research Poll: Connecticut, Missouri, Nevada, New York”, October 6, 2010
  13. ↑ Public Policy Polling, “Election 2010: Governor of Connecticut: Malloy (D) Reaches 50% Support”, October 6, 2010
  14. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Governor of Connecticut: Foley (R) Edges Slightly Ahead of Malloy (D)”, November 1, 2010
  15. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Governor of Connecticut: Malloy (D) Hangs On To Small Lead Over Foley (R)”, October 26, 2010
  16. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Malloy (D) Still Holds Slight Advantage over Foley (R)”, October 7, 2010
  17. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Election 2010: Governor of Connecticut: Malloy (D) Reaches 50% Support”, September 28, 2010
  18. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Election 2010: Governor of Connecticut: Malloy (D) 46%, Foley (R) 39%”, September 9, 2010
  19. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Election 2010: Governor of Connecticut: Malloy (D) 48%, Foley (R) 33%”, August 13, 2010
  20. ↑ [More complete methodology and sampling tabs are available at www.RasmussenReports.com]
  21. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Governor of Connecticut: Malloy 44%, Foley 35%," June 10, 2010
  22. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Governor of Connecticut: Democrats Edge Ahead of GOP Rivals," May 6, 2010
  23. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Governor of Connecticut: GOP's Foley Gains on Lamont, Malloy," April 7, 2010
  24. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Governor of Connecticut: Democrats' Lamont First Among Equals," February 4, 2010
  25. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Governor of Connecticut: Malloy 44%, Foley 35%," June 10, 2010
  26. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Governor of Connecticut: Democrats Edge Ahead of GOP Rivals," May 6, 2010
  27. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Governor of Connecticut: GOP's Foley Gains on Lamont, Malloy," April 7, 2010
  28. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Governor of Connecticut: Democrats' Lamont First Among Equals," February 4, 2010
  29. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Governor of Connecticut: Malloy 44%, Foley 35%," June 10, 2010
  30. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Governor of Connecticut: Democrats Edge Ahead of GOP Rivals," May 6, 2010
  31. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Governor of Connecticut: GOP's Foley Gains on Lamont, Malloy," April 7, 2010
  32. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Governor of Connecticut: Democrats' Lamont First Among Equals," February 4, 2010
  33. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Governor of Connecticut: Malloy 44%, Foley 35%," June 10, 2010
  34. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Governor of Connecticut: Democrats Edge Ahead of GOP Rivals," May 6, 2010
  35. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Governor of Connecticut: GOP's Foley Gains on Lamont, Malloy," April 7, 2010
  36. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Governor of Connecticut: Democrats' Lamont First Among Equals," February 4, 2010
  37. ↑ [More complete methodology and sampling tabs are available at www.RasmussenReports.com]
  38. ↑ [Full crosstabs and methodology are available free of charge with the press release accompanying each poll]
  39. ↑ Public Policy Polling, "Democrats favored for Governor in CT," January 8, 2010
  40. ↑ Public Policy Polling, "Democrats favored for Governor in CT," January 8, 2010
  41. ↑ Public Policy Polling, "Democrats favored for Governor in CT," January 8, 2010
  42. ↑ Public Policy Polling, "Democrats favored for Governor in CT," January 8, 2010
  43. ↑ Connecticut Secretary of State, “Statement of Vote”, accessed September 6, 2010
  44. ↑ Connecticut Secretary of State, "Statement of Vote - List of Candidates," accessed July 1, 2010
  45. ↑ 45.0 45.1 45.2 CNN's Political Ticker, "Top Connecticut gubernatorial candidate not running," November 10, 2009
  46. ↑ 46.0 46.1 46.2 Hartford Courant, "Quinnipiac Poll: Bysiewicz Leads Democratic Hopefuls," November 10, 2009
  47. ↑ Ned Lamont for Governor of Connecticut, "Ned Lamont Announces Candidacy For Governor," February 16, 2010
  48. ↑ New Haven Independent, "Blumenthal “Listening” On Governor Run," November 10, 2009
  49. ↑ Yale Daily News, "DeStefano rules out bid for governor," November 11, 2009
  50. ↑ Politics Daily, "Jodi Rell Decided Not to Run Again Even Though Her Numbers Were Improving," November 11, 2009
  51. ↑ Fedele for Governor, "Lt. Governor Michael Fedele Announces List of Initial Endorsements," December 3, 2009
  52. ↑ Tom Foley for Governor, "Prominent Republicans Endorse Foley for Governor," December 10, 2009
  53. ↑ Oz Griebel for Governor of Connecticut, "PRESS RELEASE: Prominent Political and Business Leaders Line Up Behind Oz Griebel," February 10, 2010
  54. ↑ Quinnipiac, "Democrats Top Republicans In Connecticut Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Foley Has Almost 4-1 Lead In Republican Primary ," July 15, 2010
  55. ↑ Associated Press, "Conn. governor candidates spar over health policy," October 11, 2010
  56. ↑ Connecticut Secretary of State, Statement of Vote – 1998, November 25, 1998
  57. ↑ Connecticut Secretary of State, Statement of Vote – 2002, November 27, 2002
  58. ↑ Connecticut Secretary of State, Statement of Vote – 2006, November 29, 2006
  59. ↑ Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections', accessed July 28, 2010
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