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Connecticut gubernatorial election, 2018 (August 14 Republican primary)/07
From Ballotpedia
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
| Race ratings: Connecticut gubernatorial election, 2018 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 5, 2018 | October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season. | |||||||||
Past elections
2014
Tom Foley won the Republican primary election in 2014, defeating John McKinney by an 11.2 percent margin.[1]
| Governor of Connecticut, Republican Primary, 2014 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
 Tom Foley |
55.6% | 44,144 | ||
| John McKinney | 44.4% | 35,282 | ||
| Total Votes | 79,426 | |||
| Election results via Connecticut Secretary of State. | ||||
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
One of eight Connecticut counties—12.5 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Windham County, Connecticut | 7.78% | 13.28% | 14.68% | ||||
In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Connecticut with 54.6 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 40.9 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Connecticut voted Republican 53.33 percent of the time and Democratic 46.67 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Connecticut voted Democratic all five times.
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Connecticut. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[2][3]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 120 out of 151 state House districts in Connecticut with an average margin of victory of 30.3 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 105 out of 151 state House districts in Connecticut with an average margin of victory of 30.9 points. Clinton won 32 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 31 out of 151 state House districts in Connecticut with an average margin of victory of 8.6 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 46 out of 151 state House districts in Connecticut with an average margin of victory of 11.6 points. Trump won seven districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
| 2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 92.49% | 6.77% | D+85.7 | 89.51% | 7.51% | D+82 | D |
| 2 | 51.55% | 47.37% | D+4.2 | 50.60% | 44.71% | D+5.9 | R |
| 3 | 93.57% | 5.98% | D+87.6 | 90.54% | 7.47% | D+83.1 | D |
| 4 | 92.54% | 6.94% | D+85.6 | 88.06% | 9.25% | D+78.8 | D |
| 5 | 86.69% | 12.67% | D+74 | 84.70% | 12.67% | D+72 | D |
| 6 | 88.20% | 11.40% | D+76.8 | 85.82% | 11.88% | D+73.9 | D |
| 7 | 96.89% | 2.76% | D+94.1 | 94.49% | 3.74% | D+90.8 | D |
| 8 | 55.13% | 43.29% | D+11.8 | 46.51% | 47.31% | R+0.8 | R |
| 9 | 67.00% | 31.94% | D+35.1 | 62.68% | 32.97% | D+29.7 | D |
| 10 | 76.58% | 22.61% | D+54 | 69.78% | 27.16% | D+42.6 | D |
| 11 | 74.13% | 24.75% | D+49.4 | 68.65% | 27.19% | D+41.5 | D |
| 12 | 66.56% | 32.04% | D+34.5 | 61.42% | 33.32% | D+28.1 | D |
| 13 | 60.43% | 38.23% | D+22.2 | 59.26% | 35.40% | D+23.9 | R |
| 14 | 56.37% | 42.40% | D+14 | 55.67% | 39.58% | D+16.1 | R |
| 15 | 81.61% | 17.90% | D+63.7 | 81.29% | 16.01% | D+65.3 | D |
| 16 | 49.87% | 48.82% | D+1.1 | 56.13% | 38.43% | D+17.7 | D |
| 17 | 47.47% | 51.38% | R+3.9 | 52.15% | 42.98% | D+9.2 | R |
| 18 | 68.94% | 29.85% | D+39.1 | 74.69% | 20.99% | D+53.7 | D |
| 19 | 57.66% | 41.43% | D+16.2 | 66.20% | 29.38% | D+36.8 | D |
| 20 | 68.52% | 30.32% | D+38.2 | 69.47% | 26.31% | D+43.2 | D |
| 21 | 50.75% | 48.05% | D+2.7 | 53.47% | 41.89% | D+11.6 | D |
| 22 | 61.25% | 37.50% | D+23.8 | 49.25% | 46.39% | D+2.9 | R |
| 23 | 54.11% | 44.83% | D+9.3 | 52.45% | 43.51% | D+8.9 | R |
| 24 | 70.27% | 28.84% | D+41.4 | 63.41% | 32.86% | D+30.6 | D |
| 25 | 84.83% | 14.40% | D+70.4 | 78.83% | 18.44% | D+60.4 | D |
| 26 | 71.82% | 27.05% | D+44.8 | 63.33% | 32.51% | D+30.8 | D |
| 27 | 60.13% | 38.56% | D+21.6 | 54.67% | 40.90% | D+13.8 | R |
| 28 | 54.92% | 43.86% | D+11.1 | 52.42% | 43.20% | D+9.2 | D |
| 29 | 55.94% | 42.86% | D+13.1 | 53.94% | 41.63% | D+12.3 | D |
| 30 | 49.89% | 48.85% | D+1 | 42.33% | 53.52% | R+11.2 | D |
| 31 | 50.61% | 48.25% | D+2.4 | 55.31% | 39.59% | D+15.7 | R |
| 32 | 55.04% | 43.64% | D+11.4 | 48.68% | 46.17% | D+2.5 | R |
| 33 | 68.45% | 30.17% | D+38.3 | 62.44% | 32.43% | D+30 | D |
| 34 | 52.37% | 46.13% | D+6.2 | 45.22% | 49.75% | R+4.5 | R |
| 35 | 53.54% | 45.30% | D+8.2 | 47.56% | 48.30% | R+0.7 | R |
| 36 | 56.48% | 42.32% | D+14.2 | 51.77% | 43.33% | D+8.4 | R |
| 37 | 56.45% | 42.30% | D+14.2 | 52.15% | 43.02% | D+9.1 | R |
| 38 | 56.59% | 42.00% | D+14.6 | 48.17% | 46.43% | D+1.7 | R |
| 39 | 81.86% | 16.53% | D+65.3 | 74.88% | 19.98% | D+54.9 | D |
| 40 | 57.78% | 40.50% | D+17.3 | 50.42% | 42.21% | D+8.2 | D |
| 41 | 62.63% | 35.97% | D+26.7 | 59.86% | 35.06% | D+24.8 | D |
| 42 | 51.47% | 46.82% | D+4.7 | 43.33% | 50.62% | R+7.3 | R |
| 43 | 56.83% | 41.64% | D+15.2 | 52.51% | 42.78% | D+9.7 | D |
| 44 | 54.23% | 43.73% | D+10.5 | 36.16% | 57.01% | R+20.9 | R |
| 45 | 52.33% | 45.60% | D+6.7 | 34.94% | 58.76% | R+23.8 | R |
| 46 | 68.64% | 29.50% | D+39.1 | 58.38% | 35.58% | D+22.8 | D |
| 47 | 52.23% | 46.02% | D+6.2 | 38.68% | 54.73% | R+16.1 | R |
| 48 | 56.08% | 42.14% | D+13.9 | 47.81% | 45.96% | D+1.9 | D |
| 49 | 73.67% | 24.87% | D+48.8 | 63.83% | 30.75% | D+33.1 | D |
| 50 | 49.83% | 48.43% | D+1.4 | 42.53% | 51.72% | R+9.2 | D |
| 51 | 51.10% | 46.82% | D+4.3 | 37.72% | 55.77% | R+18.1 | D |
| 52 | 47.99% | 50.41% | R+2.4 | 37.65% | 57.14% | R+19.5 | R |
| 53 | 53.61% | 44.77% | D+8.8 | 47.47% | 45.79% | D+1.7 | R |
| 54 | 74.44% | 22.99% | D+51.5 | 73.43% | 20.23% | D+53.2 | D |
| 55 | 51.04% | 47.60% | D+3.4 | 47.12% | 47.50% | R+0.4 | R |
| 56 | 60.67% | 37.75% | D+22.9 | 53.61% | 40.46% | D+13.2 | D |
| 57 | 50.28% | 48.34% | D+1.9 | 43.86% | 51.08% | R+7.2 | R |
| 58 | 58.16% | 40.10% | D+18.1 | 48.03% | 46.50% | D+1.5 | R |
| 59 | 54.00% | 44.54% | D+9.5 | 43.77% | 50.61% | R+6.8 | R |
| 60 | 60.09% | 38.49% | D+21.6 | 54.41% | 40.52% | D+13.9 | R |
| 61 | 47.86% | 50.91% | R+3.1 | 46.44% | 48.03% | R+1.6 | R |
| 62 | 46.32% | 52.24% | R+5.9 | 42.91% | 51.10% | R+8.2 | R |
| 63 | 45.24% | 53.11% | R+7.9 | 35.91% | 59.22% | R+23.3 | R |
| 64 | 58.49% | 40.18% | D+18.3 | 55.25% | 39.96% | D+15.3 | R |
| 65 | 50.51% | 47.54% | D+3 | 39.91% | 54.86% | R+15 | D |
| 66 | 44.89% | 53.81% | R+8.9 | 42.18% | 53.32% | R+11.1 | R |
| 67 | 50.13% | 48.38% | D+1.8 | 44.87% | 50.51% | R+5.6 | R |
| 68 | 38.36% | 60.44% | R+22.1 | 31.77% | 64.70% | R+32.9 | R |
| 69 | 47.56% | 51.44% | R+3.9 | 47.18% | 48.90% | R+1.7 | R |
| 70 | 49.43% | 48.89% | D+0.5 | 39.65% | 55.54% | R+15.9 | R |
| 71 | 44.04% | 54.99% | R+11 | 41.39% | 54.93% | R+13.5 | R |
| 72 | 78.99% | 20.44% | D+58.6 | 71.22% | 26.33% | D+44.9 | D |
| 73 | 59.14% | 40.12% | D+19 | 53.73% | 43.11% | D+10.6 | D |
| 74 | 60.54% | 38.37% | D+22.2 | 55.35% | 41.21% | D+14.1 | R |
| 75 | 82.13% | 17.29% | D+64.8 | 75.49% | 22.22% | D+53.3 | D |
| 76 | 42.30% | 56.16% | R+13.9 | 35.72% | 59.35% | R+23.6 | R |
| 77 | 57.96% | 40.82% | D+17.1 | 47.28% | 48.37% | R+1.1 | R |
| 78 | 49.31% | 49.34% | R+0 | 37.09% | 59.43% | R+22.3 | R |
| 79 | 62.13% | 36.79% | D+25.3 | 50.65% | 44.76% | D+5.9 | D |
| 80 | 39.96% | 59.03% | R+19.1 | 31.66% | 64.81% | R+33.2 | R |
| 81 | 52.24% | 46.34% | D+5.9 | 43.60% | 51.71% | R+8.1 | R |
| 82 | 61.74% | 37.01% | D+24.7 | 51.60% | 43.65% | D+8 | D |
| 83 | 57.43% | 41.64% | D+15.8 | 48.30% | 47.77% | D+0.5 | D |
| 84 | 78.63% | 20.21% | D+58.4 | 68.42% | 27.38% | D+41 | D |
| 85 | 58.63% | 40.00% | D+18.6 | 49.49% | 45.95% | D+3.5 | D |
| 86 | 50.94% | 47.93% | D+3 | 41.45% | 55.07% | R+13.6 | R |
| 87 | 51.00% | 47.91% | D+3.1 | 43.00% | 53.54% | R+10.5 | R |
| 88 | 64.84% | 34.33% | D+30.5 | 63.09% | 33.50% | D+29.6 | D |
| 89 | 45.88% | 52.83% | R+7 | 41.73% | 53.94% | R+12.2 | R |
| 90 | 49.50% | 49.27% | D+0.2 | 44.92% | 50.42% | R+5.5 | R |
| 91 | 71.02% | 28.05% | D+43 | 68.79% | 28.01% | D+40.8 | D |
| 92 | 90.04% | 9.26% | D+80.8 | 88.23% | 8.87% | D+79.4 | D |
| 93 | 94.04% | 5.26% | D+88.8 | 92.21% | 5.63% | D+86.6 | D |
| 94 | 89.09% | 10.11% | D+79 | 86.85% | 10.34% | D+76.5 | D |
| 95 | 93.24% | 6.45% | D+86.8 | 87.85% | 10.25% | D+77.6 | D |
| 96 | 80.44% | 18.19% | D+62.3 | 77.99% | 18.82% | D+59.2 | D |
| 97 | 79.86% | 19.36% | D+60.5 | 71.03% | 26.02% | D+45 | D |
| 98 | 58.10% | 41.10% | D+17 | 59.59% | 36.92% | D+22.7 | D |
| 99 | 58.20% | 40.74% | D+17.5 | 43.42% | 53.68% | R+10.3 | D |
| 100 | 68.37% | 30.20% | D+38.2 | 59.83% | 34.70% | D+25.1 | D |
| 101 | 50.24% | 49.15% | D+1.1 | 52.73% | 42.75% | D+10 | R |
| 102 | 59.07% | 39.83% | D+19.2 | 54.29% | 42.07% | D+12.2 | D |
| 103 | 49.87% | 48.93% | D+0.9 | 47.42% | 48.09% | R+0.7 | D |
| 104 | 61.67% | 37.00% | D+24.7 | 48.24% | 47.64% | D+0.6 | D |
| 105 | 47.47% | 50.85% | R+3.4 | 36.71% | 58.78% | R+22.1 | R |
| 106 | 46.91% | 51.93% | R+5 | 49.00% | 46.32% | D+2.7 | R |
| 107 | 46.14% | 52.69% | R+6.6 | 45.69% | 50.22% | R+4.5 | R |
| 108 | 46.63% | 52.18% | R+5.6 | 43.14% | 52.59% | R+9.5 | R |
| 109 | 59.30% | 39.85% | D+19.5 | 54.64% | 41.59% | D+13.1 | D |
| 110 | 69.46% | 29.43% | D+40 | 66.40% | 29.93% | D+36.5 | D |
| 111 | 46.72% | 52.32% | R+5.6 | 55.72% | 39.70% | D+16 | R |
| 112 | 43.53% | 55.23% | R+11.7 | 42.08% | 53.69% | R+11.6 | R |
| 113 | 45.59% | 53.06% | R+7.5 | 38.93% | 56.85% | R+17.9 | R |
| 114 | 52.24% | 46.77% | D+5.5 | 51.57% | 44.86% | D+6.7 | R |
| 115 | 69.14% | 29.79% | D+39.4 | 57.47% | 38.78% | D+18.7 | D |
| 116 | 82.99% | 16.24% | D+66.8 | 75.09% | 22.25% | D+52.8 | D |
| 117 | 54.80% | 44.05% | D+10.8 | 46.58% | 49.79% | R+3.2 | R |
| 118 | 56.74% | 41.72% | D+15 | 50.06% | 45.44% | D+4.6 | D |
| 119 | 49.33% | 49.44% | R+0.1 | 46.15% | 50.19% | R+4 | R |
| 120 | 52.66% | 46.17% | D+6.5 | 49.00% | 46.86% | D+2.1 | D |
| 121 | 69.58% | 29.53% | D+40.1 | 63.75% | 32.86% | D+30.9 | D |
| 122 | 43.71% | 55.48% | R+11.8 | 40.56% | 56.27% | R+15.7 | R |
| 123 | 46.02% | 53.07% | R+7.1 | 47.40% | 48.87% | R+1.5 | R |
| 124 | 92.91% | 6.85% | D+86.1 | 88.21% | 10.08% | D+78.1 | D |
| 125 | 38.12% | 60.99% | R+22.9 | 54.45% | 40.22% | D+14.2 | R |
| 126 | 87.89% | 11.69% | D+76.2 | 82.05% | 15.49% | D+66.6 | D |
| 127 | 73.75% | 25.71% | D+48 | 70.48% | 26.91% | D+43.6 | D |
| 128 | 93.61% | 5.92% | D+87.7 | 88.85% | 9.56% | D+79.3 | D |
| 129 | 77.69% | 21.51% | D+56.2 | 74.21% | 22.70% | D+51.5 | D |
| 130 | 92.36% | 7.37% | D+85 | 87.37% | 10.56% | D+76.8 | D |
| 131 | 43.13% | 55.42% | R+12.3 | 35.63% | 60.28% | R+24.7 | R |
| 132 | 49.34% | 49.72% | R+0.4 | 56.65% | 39.38% | D+17.3 | R |
| 133 | 57.75% | 41.06% | D+16.7 | 59.87% | 35.88% | D+24 | D |
| 134 | 45.32% | 53.75% | R+8.4 | 50.73% | 45.11% | D+5.6 | R |
| 135 | 49.88% | 49.04% | D+0.8 | 58.64% | 36.95% | D+21.7 | R |
| 136 | 56.68% | 42.57% | D+14.1 | 69.50% | 26.62% | D+42.9 | D |
| 137 | 66.76% | 31.99% | D+34.8 | 66.51% | 29.67% | D+36.8 | D |
| 138 | 51.38% | 47.42% | D+4 | 50.31% | 45.50% | D+4.8 | R |
| 139 | 58.71% | 39.40% | D+19.3 | 46.27% | 47.70% | R+1.4 | D |
| 140 | 80.35% | 18.77% | D+61.6 | 76.93% | 19.96% | D+57 | D |
| 141 | 39.54% | 59.82% | R+20.3 | 56.05% | 38.27% | D+17.8 | R |
| 142 | 52.46% | 46.56% | D+5.9 | 56.93% | 39.06% | D+17.9 | R |
| 143 | 49.54% | 49.41% | D+0.1 | 57.08% | 38.35% | D+18.7 | R |
| 144 | 55.71% | 43.34% | D+12.4 | 57.85% | 38.43% | D+19.4 | D |
| 145 | 82.37% | 17.09% | D+65.3 | 80.19% | 17.15% | D+63 | D |
| 146 | 66.49% | 32.45% | D+34 | 70.69% | 25.77% | D+44.9 | D |
| 147 | 50.78% | 48.18% | D+2.6 | 57.96% | 38.09% | D+19.9 | D |
| 148 | 69.33% | 29.79% | D+39.5 | 68.87% | 27.90% | D+41 | D |
| 149 | 42.34% | 56.81% | R+14.5 | 54.38% | 41.72% | D+12.7 | R |
| 150 | 48.35% | 50.82% | R+2.5 | 61.39% | 34.60% | D+26.8 | R |
| 151 | 43.49% | 55.63% | R+12.1 | 55.81% | 39.53% | D+16.3 | R |
| Total | 58.08% | 40.75% | D+17.3 | 54.65% | 40.99% | D+13.7 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
- ↑ Connecticut Secretary of the State, "August 12, 2014, Unofficial Primary Results," accessed September 18, 2017
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
