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Daily Brew: April 15, 2019

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April 15, 2019

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Today's Brew highlights an analysis of state legislative special elections that changed party control this decade + a preview of tomorrow’s Newark Public School board elections

  
The Daily Brew

Welcome to the Monday, April 15 Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. 94 state legislative seats have flipped in special elections since 2010
  2. Newark, New Jersey, holds second school board election since resuming control of district from the state
  3. Don’t miss today's Ballotpedia Insights webinar on political campaigns

94 state legislative seats have flipped in special elections since 2010

There is a special election tomorrow for a seat in the Connecticut House of Representatives, which got me wondering: How often do such special elections result in a change of party control?

Since 2010, 94 state legislative seats have changed partisan control, or flipped, in the 25 states which fill such vacancies through special elections. Democrats have won 51 of these special elections, Republicans have won 37, and independent and third-party candidates have won six. The total number of state legislative special elections held during this period is 676, meaning that 13.9% of all such special elections resulted in a seat flip.

So far, six partisan flips have occurred in 2019—four Republican wins, one Democratic win, and one independent win.

Forty percent of those flips have occurred in the last two-and-a-half years. The year with most flips was 2017 when 17 seats (14 Democratic wins and three Republican wins) changed party control. There were 16 flips in 2018—12 Democratic wins and four Republican wins—and 15 flips in 2015—five Democratic wins, eight Republican wins, and two third-party wins.

The two years during that span which saw the largest net partisan gains in state legislative special elections was 2017 and 2018, as Democrats picked up 11 seats and eight seats, respectively. The year which saw the largest net partisan gain favoring Republicans was 2013 when they picked up five seats.

The states having the most flipped seats since 2010 are New Hampshire and Connecticut. There have been 10 flips in New Hampshire—nine Democratic wins and one Republican win. Five of the Democratic flips in New Hampshire occurred in 2017 and 2018. Connecticut has seen nine flips—one Democratic win, seven Republican wins, and one third-party win. So far in 2019, one Connecticut House seat and one Connecticut Senate seat have flipped from Democratic to Republican control.

About two-thirds of flipped state legislative seats in special elections have occurred in state Houses rather than state Senates. Since 2010, there have been 62 flips in state House seats—66.0% of the total-and 32 flips in state Senate seats.

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Newark, New Jersey, holds second school board election since resuming control of district from the state

For eight consecutive elections, the slate of school board candidates endorsed by Newark, New Jersey, mayor Ras Baraka has won election to that city’s school board. Tomorrow the city holds elections for three of the nine at-large seats.

Two incumbent school board members are running for re-election-Tave Padilla and Leah Owens. Padilla and Owens were first elected to the board in 2016 as part of the Newark Unity slate that was endorsed by Baraka. This year, Padilla is one of three candidates running on the Moving Newark Schools Forward slate, which is endorsed by Baraka and charter school advocates. Owens and two other candidates are running as a different group on the Children Over Politics slate, which has raised concerns about the growth of charter schools in the city. The other five candidates in the race are running as independents.

This election is the second since full local control was returned to the district by the New Jersey State Board of Education. The state originally took over the district in 1995 due to poor student performance. Following the state takeover, the Newark Board of Education had little control over finances or operations with most decisions about curriculum and programs made by a superintendent appointed by the state. In 2007, New Jersey began to gradually transition operational control to the Newark Public Schools Advisory Board. Full control was restored in September 2017.

Baraka was first elected mayor of Newark in 2014 and was re-elected in 2018. Before that, he was a member of the Newark City Council from 2002 to 2006 and from 2010 to 2014.

Don’t miss today's Ballotpedia Insights webinar on political campaigns

Today is our second Ballotpedia Insights webinar of 2019, and it’s one that I’m really looking forward to. Our guests are Jeff Roe, a strategist for the Republican Party, and Jeff Hewitt, a strategist for the Democratic Party. We will be discussing the unique challenges of campaigning in today’s political environment. The webinar will be held today at 3 p.m. Eastern Time. You can still sign up by clicking on the link below.

Roe is the founder of Axiom Strategies, a firm specializing in strategic consulting, direct voter contact, and research services. He is best known for his data-driven approach to politics and his role as campaign manager for Ted Cruz’s 2016 presidential campaign.

Hewitt founded Hewitt Campaigns and has worked in every facet of political campaigns during a career spanning over two decades. He also served on the Clinton-Gore campaign staff and as an advisor for a variety of congressional races throughout the U.S.

Our director of outreach, Sarah Rosier, will lead the Q&A, asking questions such as: How are the parties shifting in their messaging? What techniques do you use to manage turnout? How do you go about boosting a candidate in a crowded field?

If you follow politics, this is a free webinar you’re not going to want to miss. Click the link below to register.


See also

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