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Daily Brew: December 13, 2022
Welcome to the Tuesday, December 13, Brew.
By: Samuel Wonacott
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- A look back at state legislative special elections
- Vote for your favorite holiday cookie!
- Republican wins Iowa House district by 11 votes following recounts
A look back at state legislative special elections
Let’s look back at the special elections that happened throughout 2022 and over the last decade to get a sense of what we might be able to expect in 2023. So far, seven have been scheduled.
This year, 24 states held 53 state legislative special elections—with one still to come.
The final special election of the year is being held in District 129 of the Georgia House of Representatives on Dec. 20. Incumbent Henry Howard (D), who was running unopposed in the general, died in October after the deadline had passed for a replacement to appear on the ballot. Because Howard was running unopposed, only Democrats can run in the Dec. 20 special election. If necessary, a runoff is scheduled for Jan. 17, 2023.
Two seats changed in partisan control as a result of special elections this year. Democrats gained Michigan House of Representatives District 74 on May 3. Republicans gained District 39 of the Montana Senate on Nov. 8.
In even year elections since 2010, there was an average of 56 special state legislative elections. States tend to fill more vacancies in odd years—there was an average of 85 special legislative elections in each of the last six odd-numbered years.
In special elections between 2010 and 2022, one party (either Republicans or Democrats) had an average net gain of three seats nationally each year.
The process for filling state legislative vacancies varies from state-to-state. Twenty-five states fill such vacancies through special elections. Twenty-two states fill vacancies through appointments, and three states fill vacancies through a hybrid system that uses both appointments and special elections.
Some of the first elections next year will be state legislative special elections in Virginia on Jan. 10 (we discuss those and other upcoming elections on the latest episode of On the Ballot, our weekly podcast).
Click below to learn more about state legislative special elections.
Vote for your favorite holiday cookie!
It’s that time again—the Official Holiday Cookie election! Last year, Chocolate Chip Cookie replaced incumbent Sugar Cookie, who was recalled! You can read all about the rich and delicious controversy surrounding that recall election here.
Since it’s once again December, we’re stocking up on flour, breaking out the sprinkles, and dusting off the cookie cutters. ‘Tis the season for holiday cookies! Do you have a favorite cookie, maybe one to pair with a cup of cocoa?
Due to increased cookie candidates, we have decided to open this year’s election up to a primary and a general in order to narrow the field.
Primary voters will pick their top 3 candidates from the full field of 8.
Polls open today at 8:00am E.T. through Friday, Dec. 16, at 5:00 pm ET.
As Daily Brewsters, we know you strive to be informed voters, so we have gathered the candidate profiles in preparation for the election. Here’s who’s on the ballot:
- Sugar Cookie
- Chocolate chip cookie
- Chocolate peppermint bark cookie
- Gingerbread cookie
- Peanut butter blossom
- Snickerdoodle
- Thumbprint cookie
- Oatmeal Raisin
A roundup of some recounts
In previous years, we’ve tracked the country’s most narrowly decided state legislative elections. Our team is in the process of putting together a 2022 list (so stay tuned for that report!), but not all states have certified their election results. In the meantime, let’s look at a recently decided election in Iowa that took a few recounts to get to a resolution and that promises to be one of the closest of the year.
On Dec. 7, following a series of recounts in the general election for Iowa House of Representatives District 81, Luana Stoltenberg (R) defeated Craig Lynn Cooper (D) by 11 votes—5,073 to 5,062.
Throughout the recount process, Stoltenberg and Cooper traded places for the lead. Cooper appeared to have more votes than Stoltenberg on Election Day and in the days that followed. Then, the county auditor and the Iowa Secretary of State Office found hundreds of uncounted absentee ballots, prompting a recount. Following the recount, Cooper led Stoltenberg by six votes.
Stoltenberg then requested another count. The candidates selected a bipartisan three-member board to conduct the recount. Cooper selected a Democrat, Stoltenberg selected a Republican, and both candidates agreed on a third member, who is also a Democrat.
The board counted ballots by hand and machine. The machine method showed Cooper with the most votes, while the hand count showed Stoltenberg with the most votes. The board chose to use the hand count as the final number.
According to the Des Moines Register’s Katie Akin, Iowa Secretary of State representative Kevin Hall said, "The bipartisan recount board members, which include two Democrats and one Republican, have publicly stated they are confident in the results of their recount and we thank them for their efforts.”
Cooper conceded to Stoltenberg Nov. 8.
District 81 covers a portion of northwest Davenport in southeastern Iowa. A Democrat has represented the district since at least 2012. Incumbent Mary Gaskill (D) did not run for re-election.
Going into the election, Republicans held a 60-40 majority in the Iowa House of Representatives. According to The Quad-City Times’s Sarah Watson, “the GOP will hold a 64-36 majority in the statehouse.”
Another recount we’ve been watching happened in Alaska. Incumbent state Rep. Thomas McKay (R) defeated Denny Wells (D) by nine votes in the general election for Alaska House of Representatives District 15. Wells requested the recount because the certified results showed he and McKay were within .5% of each other. Following the recount, McKay’s lead increased from seven to nine votes. Wells has until Dec. 13 to file an appeal.
Another recount in Massachusetts has resulted in the Republican candidate gaining a one-vote lead over the Democratic incumbent. Incumbent Leonard Mirra (R) and Kristin Kassner (D) ran in the general election for Massachusetts House of Representatives 2nd Essex District. The certified results showed Mirra with a 10-vote lead, a margin narrow enough to allow Kassner the opportunity to request a recount. According to State House News Service’s Chris Lisinksi, Mirra plans to challenge the outcome in court.
Although not all states have certified results, our preliminary analysis shows 91 state legislative elections across 23 states decided by fewer than 100 votes on Nov. 8. We’ll be back in a future edition with the full analysis.
