Daily Brew: How many states currently have veto-proof majorities in the state legislatures

July 31, 2018

Plus, Trump makes two more primary endorsements, and a SCOTUS update: Manchin meeting and Rand Paul gives his blessing   Welcome to the Tuesday, July 31 Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day: Three state legislatures currently have veto-proof majorities. What could 2018 bring? Trump makes two more primary endorsements SCOTUS update: Manchin meeting and Rand Paul gives his blessing Not-so-divided: Ten state governments could have legislative veto-proof majorities and an opposing party governor after 2018 A veto-proof majority is the ability of a state legislature to overturn a gubernatorial veto. Between one-half and two-thirds of sitting legislators, depending on the state, have to vote to overturn. In these situations, the majority party is considered to have a veto-proof majority. In that respect, a veto-proof majority turns divided government into trifecta lite. The presence of a veto-proof majority strengthens the legislature's hand when it comes to passing bills of which the governor disapproves. There are currently three states with a governor of one party and a veto-proof state legislature of the opposing party, and seven more states could join them as a result of the 2018 elections. The three current states: Maryland (Democratic veto-proof majorities and a Republican governor) Massachusetts (Democratic veto-proof majorities and a Republican governor) North Carolina (Republican veto-proof majority and a Democratic governor) In these situations, there are also opportunities for the minority party to end the veto-proof majorities. Here’s what it would look like for these three states to break the super majorities, keeping in mind that Maryland and Massachusetts have gubernatorial races this year, in addition to the state legislative elections: Maryland: In order to break the Democratic supermajority in Maryland, the Republican Party must gain at least six seats in the state House or at least four seats in the state Senate. Massachusetts: In order to break the Democratic supermajority in Massachusetts, the Republican Party must gain at least 10 seats in the state House or at least four seats in the state Senate.  North Carolina: In order to break the Republican supermajority in North Carolina, the Democratic Party must gain at least three seats in the state House or at least four seats in the state Senate. Seven more states could face similar conflict after the 2018 elections. In looking at current legislative partisan breakdowns and battleground gubernatorial elections, Alaska, Montana, Ohio, and Wisconsin could have Democratic governors and Republican veto-proof majorities. Illinois, Nevada, and Vermont could have Republican governors and Democratic veto-proof majorities depending on this November’s election results. Read our study on veto-proof majorities and the 2018 elections         Time is running out! One more day to enter our contest and get your 2018 election exactly how you want. Join before it's too late→ Trump makes two more endorsements in this year’s primaries President Donald Trump made his 28th congressional endorsement of 2018 over the weekend. John James (R), U.S. Senate candidate in Michigan: "Rarely have I seen a candidate with such great potential. West Point graduate, successful businessman and a African American leader," Trump tweeted. "John is strong on crime and borders, loves our Military, our Vets and our Second Amendment. He will be a star." James has party support, receiving endorsements from Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Reps. Mike Bishop (R-Mich.) and Paul Mitchell (R-Mich.). He has also been endorsed by the Senate Conservatives Fund, which spent more than $60,000 on direct mail and marketing campaigns backing him. James is running against venture capitalist Sandy Pensler (R), who has the fundraising advantage in the race, having contributed $5 million to his own campaign through the second quarter of 2018. Trump was the first Republican presidential candidate to win Michigan since 1988. The Republican nominee will face incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D). Rep. David Kustoff (R), Tennessee’s 8th Congressional District candidate: An incumbent who faces a rematch against self-funding radiologist and broadcaster George Flinn Jr. (R) in Thursday's primary in Tennessee's 8th Congressional District. Kustoff defeated Flinn by 4 percentage points in a 13-candidate Republican primary field in 2016. Learn more→   Don't miss out on other primary updates like this. Click here to subscribe to the Heart of the Primaries free weekly newsletter. Kavanaugh nabs Paul’s vote and meeting with Manchin Sen. Joe Manchin (D) met with Brett Kavanaugh yesterday, becoming the first Democratic senator to do so. Manchin said he will be evaluating Kavanaugh’s “record, legal qualifications, judicial philosophy and particularly, his views on healthcare.” The senator also criticized his Democratic colleagues for declining to meet with Kavanaugh. Two other Democratic senators have confirmed they will meet with Kavanaugh: Joe Donnelly and Heidi Heitkamp. Sen. Rand Paul (R) announced he would support Kavanaugh’s nomination. The senator tweeted Monday, “After meeting Judge Kavanaugh and reviewing his record, I have decided to support his nomination. No one will ever completely agree with a nominee (unless of course, you are the nominee). Each nominee however, must be judged on the totality of their views character and opinions.” Paul had previously voiced concerns about Kavanaugh's views on the Fourth Amendment. The hearings for Kavanaugh’s confirmation have not yet been scheduled. Learn more→