Daily Brew: May 8, 2019

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May 8, 2019

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Today's Brew highlights the competitiveness of 2019’s primary elections + a preview of the Republican congressional primary in NC-09  
The Daily Brew

Welcome to the Wednesday, May 8, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. 811 candidates are running for office in Kentucky, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia in 2019
  2. Ten-way Republican primary in North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District takes place May 14
  3. Texas voters in three jurisdictions approve bond issues totaling more than $1.5 billion on Saturday

811 candidates are running for office in Kentucky, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia in 2019

The deadlines to become a candidate for statewide office or the legislature in Kentucky, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia have passed. All four states have elections in November. The filing deadline in a fifth state, Louisiana, is August 8.

Here is a breakdown of competitiveness in this year's state primaries:

  • A total of 811 candidates filed to run for 412 seats, resulting in an average of 1.97 candidates per seat. In 2017, there were 2.2 candidates per seat and in 2015, 2.1 candidates.
  • More than 25% of incumbents (25.6%, to be precise) have primary challengers. That's up from the 16.8% with primary opponents in 2017, but down from the 28.8% who had contested primary races in 2015.
  • Overall, 20.7% of possible primary races are contested in 2019. Comparatively, 16.1% of primaries were contested in 2017, and 28.9% were contested in 2015.
  • Sixty of 412 seats are open-seat races where no; that is, they do not have an incumbent is running for re-election. In 2017, 10.6% of seats were open, and there were 16.3% open seats in 2015.


The comparison to recent odd-numbered years excludes data about Virginia state legislative elections from 2015 as it is unclear which nominees were selected via primary elections and which were chosen through nominating conventions.

Read the full report
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Ten-way Republican primary in North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District takes place Tuesday

We are less than a week away from the May 14 Republican primary for the special election in North Carolina's 9th Congressional District. Ten candidates are running for the Republican nomination.

If no candidate receives 30% support or more in the May 14 primary, the top two finishers will meet in a primary runoff on Sept. 10. In that event, the general election will be on Nov. 5. If a primary runoff is not necessary, the special election will take place on Sept. 10.

The 2018 general election results were not certified after allegations of absentee voter fraud. In February 2019, the state Board of Elections voted unanimously to call a new election.

This is the largest Republican primary field in the district since 2012, when Robert Pittenger won outright in an 11-candidate field to win the GOP nomination for an open seat. Pittenger won the general election in 2012 and was re-elected in 2014 and 2016. He ran for re-election in 2018 but was defeated in the primary by Mark Harris, who is not running in the special election.

A Public Policy Polling survey conducted April 29-30 found state Sen. Dan Bishop (R) leading with 31 percent. Union County Commissioner Stony Rushing (R) and former Mecklenburg County Commissioner Matthew Ridenhour (R) were second and third at 17 and 9%, respectively. The margin of error was 5.1 percent.

The race has received attention from satellite groups. The National Association of Realtors has been the biggest spender, putting $1.3 million into TV and radio ads supporting realtor Leigh Thomas Brown (R). Club for Growth has also entered the race, endorsing Bishop and spending five figures against Rushing.

Six other candidates are running: attorney Chris Anglin (R), real estate agent Kathie Day (R), former Charlotte mayoral candidate Gary Dunn (R), sales manager Stevie Rivenbark (R), former state Sen. Fern Shubert (R), and nuclear engineer Albert Wiley Jr. (R).

Dan McCready (D), who faced Harris in the general election last year, is running for the seat again. He is unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Texas voters in three jurisdictions approve bond issues totaling more than $1.5 billion on Saturday

As I mentioned in previous editions of the Brew, local ballot measure elections were held alongside municipal and school board contests across Texas on Saturday. Voters in three jurisdictions in the Dallas-Fort Worth area approved bond packages ranging from $44.7 million to $1.1 billion.

Dallas County voters approved Proposition A 71% to 29%, according to unofficial results. This measure authorizes the Dallas County Community College District (DCCCD) to issue $1.1 billion in bonds to construct, improve, and equip school buildings. The DCCCD chancellor, Joe May, recommended the bond measure, and the board of trustees voted in February to place it on the ballot. District officials stated that the bonds would not raise property taxes.

In Garland, voters approved all eight bond measures that were on the ballot. The bond package totaled $423.7 million and was designed to fund projects such as improving streets, parks and recreation facilities, and public safety facilities. All eight measures passed with 55% support or greater; the bond issue that received the largest margin of support was the one authorizing money to fund street improvements, construction, and additions. That was approved 76 to 24 percent.

In the voter information guide explaining the bond program, Garland city officials said that approving all eight measures would result in an annual tax increase of up to $0.085 per $100 in assessed property value. Officials also said the timeline for project completion would be between seven and 10 years. Garland voters also approved Proposition A-1, a measure that authorized the city to sell Bunker Hill Park, an area of undeveloped land, and use the proceeds for other public parks.

And in Plano, voters approved three bond measures totaling $44.7 million. The bond measures will fund improvements to streets, parks and recreational facilities, and municipal facilities. Voter approval rates ranged from 56 to 71 percent. In May 2017, voters in Plano approved five of six bond measures totaling $220.6 million.


See also

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