2018 election analysis: State government trifectas
Democrats emerged from the midterm election with a net gain in state government trifectas—where one political party holds the governorship, a majority in the state senate, and a majority in the state house in a state's government. Despite this, Republicans still retain a net advantage of at least eight trifectas over Democrats. Three gubernatorial races are too-close-to-call: Alaska, Connecticut, and Georgia.
The new trifecta count stands at 13 Democratic, 21 Republican, 13 divided, and three states to be decided based on the three uncalled gubernatorial races above.
Entering the 2018 midterm election Republicans had a +14 state trifecta lead: of 34 states with trifectas, 26 were Republican and 8 were Democratic. But after the votes were counted, Democrats increased their trifecta total with a net gain of at least five, and Republicans declined to 21 trifectas (a net loss of five so far). States with divided government (i.e.: no trifecta for either major party) declined to 13.
This outcome is similar to the trifecta balance following the 2014 midterm election, which left Republicans with 24 trifectas, Democrats with 13, and 13 states with no trifecta advantage for either major party. After the 2010 midterms, 25 states had no trifectas, Republicans had 9 and Democrats 16.
In two cases where Democrats gained trifectas, and in one case where Republicans lost a trifecta, Democrats won open gubernatorial races that had been vacated by Republican incumbents who could not seek re-election due to term limits.
The six Democratic flips from divided power to trifecta control in 2018 were in:
In each of the four states where Republicans lost trifectas the balance of power became divided:
Overall, 10 total states saw a trifecta status change in some way.
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Colorado - divided government to Democratic trifecta
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Illinois - divided government to Democratic trifecta
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Kansas - Republican trifecta to divided government
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Maine - divided government to Democratic trifecta
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Michigan - Republican trifecta to divided government
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Nevada - divided government to Democratic trifecta
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New Hampshire - Republican trifecta to divided government
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New Mexico - divided government to Democratic trifecta
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New York - divided government to Democratic trifecta
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Wisconsin - Republican trifecta to divided government
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