Daily Brew: October 16, 2025
Welcome to the Thursday, Oct. 16, 2025, Brew.
By: Lara Bonatesta
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- California Proposition 50 ranks as the seventh most expensive ballot measure in state history, with $139.9 million raised
- Janet Mills becomes the 12th Maine governor to run for Senate since 1914
- Sixteen candidates running for Texas' 18th Congressional District on Nov. 4
California Proposition 50 ranks as the seventh most expensive ballot measure in state history, with $139.9 million raised
California Proposition 50 ranks as the seventh most expensive ballot measure in the state’s history, based on total contributions to campaigns supporting and opposing the amendment. As of Oct. 13, campaigns raised $139.9 million for and against Proposition 50. Supporters received $97.7 million, while opponents received $42.2 million.
Proposition 50, which voters will decide on Nov. 4, would allow the state to use a new, legislature-drawn congressional district map for 2026 through 2030. The proposed map would replace the existing maps, which the 14-member Citizens Redistricting Commission adopted in Dec. 2021. Under Proposition 50, five Republican-held districts would shift to become more Democratic, based on the 2024 presidential election results.
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) said the ballot measure is intended to counter a mid-cycle redistricting proposal in Texas: "They’re not screwing around. We cannot afford to screw around either. We have got to fight fire with fire." The Texas Legislature approved a new congressional redistricting plan on Aug. 22. According to The Texas Tribune, the plan "[positioned] the GOP to net up to five additional seats in Texas."
Support campaign
The largest donor to the support campaign, the House Majority PAC (HMP), along with the associated HMP for Prop 50 PAC, contributed $11.0 million. HMP is a super PAC that focuses on electing Democrats to the U.S. House.
The second largest donor to the support campaign, the Fund for Policy Reform (FPR), contributed $10 million. FPR is a 501(c)(4) associated with the Open Society Foundations, which George Soros founded. According to FPR's Form 990, the organization's mission is to support legislation that "assures greater fairness in political, legal and economic systems and safeguards fundamental rights."
Tom Steyer made an independent expenditure of $12.8 million for advertisements in support of Proposition 50. Steyer is an investor, philanthropist, and donor to progressive and Democratic causes. He founded the organization NextGen America and was a candidate for president in 2020. Steyer made the expenditure independent of the political action committees supporting Proposition 50.
Opposition campaign
The largest donor to the opposition campaign, Charles T. Munger, Jr., contributed $32.7 million—77.6% of the opposition's total funds. Munger, a physicist and political donor, is the son of Charles Munger Sr., who was a business partner at Berkshire Hathaway. He was chairperson of the Santa Clara County Republican Party (2012-2015) and the California Republican Party's Initiatives Committee (2013-2019). He contributed to several ballot measure campaigns in the 2000s and 2010s, including campaigns to create the California Citizens Redistricting Commission.
The second largest donor was the Congressional Leadership Fund, which contributed $5.0 million. The Congressional Leadership Fund is a super PAC that focuses on electing Republicans to the U.S. House of Representatives.
Campaign advertisements
A number of notable current and former elected officials have appeared in support and opposition campaign ads.
As of Oct. 14, the Yes on 50 PAC published 18 campaign advertisements on YouTube featuring Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.), U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), U.S. Rep. Lateefah Simon (D-Calif.), U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), U.S. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), and U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas). On Oct. 14, the PAC also released an ad featuring former President Barack Obama (D).
As of Oct. 14, the two No on 50 PACs had published a combined total of nine campaign advertisements on YouTube featuring Brea Mayor Blair Stewart, Yorba Linda Mayor Janice Lim, and former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R).
Polling
The most recent poll on California Proposition 50, conducted from Sept. 29 to Oct. 1, surveyed 976 likely voters. It found 56% in favor, 39% opposed, and 5% undecided. The poll found that political party affiliation was one of the strongest predictors of voter opinion. Among Democrats, 89% supported Proposition 50, while 90% of Republicans opposed it. Independents were divided, with 54% in favor and 44% opposed.
The following chart summarizes four published polls that reported their full results, sample sizes, margins of error, and question wording.
California Proposition 50 is one of 24 statewide ballot measures across five states that voters will decide on Nov. 4, 2025.
Janet Mills becomes the 12th Maine governor to run for Senate since 1914
Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) announced her candidacy for U.S. Senate against incumbent Susan Collins (R) in 2026. In her launch video, Mills said, “I won’t sit idly by while Maine people suffer and politicians like Susan Collins bend the knee as if this were normal.” Mills is finishing her second term as governor. She was re-elected in 2022 with 56% of the vote. As of Oct. 15, 12 candidates, including eight Democrats, three Republicans, and one Independent, have filed to run. The primaries are scheduled for June 9, 2026.
Mills is the second governor to announce a candidacy for U.S. Senate after former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) announced his bid in July. Ballotpedia covers the results of governors running for U.S. Senate, dating back to 1914, when the ratification of the 17th Amendment established the direct election of senators.
Maine ties with Kansas and North Dakota as the state with the fourth-highest number of governors who have run for the Senate, with each having 11. Nebraska has had the most governors who ran for the Senate, with 16.
The last Maine governor to run for Senate was Angus King (I). King was elected to the Senate in 2012 and won a third term in 2024. Mills is the second governor to run against Susan Collins after Joseph Brennan (D), whom Collins defeated to win her first term in 1996.
Maine governors have run in 15 U.S. Senate elections. This includes instances of governors running more than once, running concurrently in a special and regular election, or multiple governors running in one election.
Across these 15 elections, Maine governors won five times, lost in the primaries six times, and lost in the general election four times. In total, a Maine governor has been elected 33% of the time, which ties with six other states with a similar victory percentage.
The last time a Maine governor lost in the primary election was 1948, when then-Gov. Horace Hildreth (R) and former Gov. Sumner Sewall (R) lost to Margaret Chase Smith (R). The last time a Maine governor lost in the general election was in 1996, when Brennan lost to Collins.
In addition to Mills, eight other Democrats are running for the nomination, including Graham Platner, and Jordan Wood. As of Oct. 14, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter ranks this race as “Lean Republican”. To read more about Maine’s 2026 Senate election, click here. To see Ballotpedia’s full list of governors running for Senate, click here.
Sixteen candidates running for Texas' 18th Congressional District on Nov. 4
Sixteen candidates are running in the special general election for Texas' 18th Congressional District on Nov. 4. Candidates from all parties are running, and if no one wins an outright majority, the top two candidates will advance to a runoff. The winner will be the fourth person to represent the district since 2024 and will serve through January 2027.
Former Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D) represented the district from 1995 until she died in July 2024. On Nov. 5, 2024, Erica Lee Carter won the special election to fill the vacancy, and Sylvester Turner won the general election. Carter represented the district from Nov. 12, 2024, to Jan. 3, 2025, when Turner assumed office. Turner died on March 5, 2025.
This special election could have implications in the House. As of Oct. 15, Republicans have a 219-213 House majority, with three vacancies. If a Republican wins, Republicans will still have enough votes to pass legislation, even if three Republicans vote with Democrats or don’t vote. If a Democrat wins, Republicans will only still have a majority if two or fewer Republicans vote with Democrats or don’t vote.
Four candidates—Amanda Edwards (D), Jolanda Jones (D), Christian Menefee (D), and Carmen Montiel (R)—lead in media attention, polling, and endorsements. Click here to see the full list of 16 candidates.
Edwards is an attorney, nonprofit founder, and former at-large member of the Houston City Council. Her campaign website says she is "laser-focused on delivering transformative results for the community, from lowering the price of groceries, building better schools, roads, and homes, protecting our healthcare and social security, and standing up to the Trump administration." U.S. Reps. Lateefah Simon (D-Calif.) and Jennifer McClellan (D-Va.) endorsed Edwards.
Jones is an attorney and member of the Texas House of Representatives. Jones was also a member of the Houston City Council and the Houston Independent School District school board. Jones' campaign website says she will, "fight to stop Trump cuts to healthcare and Medicaid, Social Security, education, and veterans… and make healthcare more affordable and accessible for all of us." Former U.S. Rep. Craig Washington (D), who represented the district from 1989 to 1995, and U.S. Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-N.J.) endorsed Jones.
Menefee is the Harris County Attorney. In his response to Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey, Menefee said his priorities included “Protecting Our Democracy,” “Lowering Costs and Reinvesting in Our Neighborhoods,” and “Fighting for Reproductive Healthcare.” Former U.S. Rep. Erica Lee Carter (D), who represented the district for two months after Lee's death, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas), U.S. Rep. Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (D-Texas), former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas), and former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) endorsed Menefee.
Montiel is a real estate broker and former news anchor. In her response to Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey, Montiel said her priorities included “Family,” “Economic growth,” and “Education.” Former Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst (R) and Texas Commissioner of Agriculture Sid Miller (R) endorsed Montiel.
According to the candidate's most recent financial reports filed with the FEC, here's how much each candidate raised and spent through June 30.
- Menefee raised $978,000 and spent $337,000
- Edwards raised $803,000 and spent $181,000
- Jones raised $101,000 and spent $9,400
- Montiel raised $5,000 and spent $2,500
According to the Texas Tribune's Natalia Contreras, "The 18th Congressional District, which includes inner Houston and surrounding Harris County areas, is home to more than 760,000 people. It was shaped by redistricting that followed the 1965 Voting Rights Act — signed into law by president Lyndon B. Johnson — and deliberately crafted to strengthen minority representation in Houston."
The Texas Legislature voted to redraw the state's congressional district boundaries, including those of the 18th District, in August 2025. Governor Greg Abbott (R) signed the new map into law on Aug. 29. The special election will take place within the boundaries of the old district. Voters will first vote under the new district boundaries in the March 2026 primary. Click here to learn more about redistricting in Texas ahead of the 2026 elections.
Stephen Huey, Menefee, Montiel, and Tammie Rochester completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Click here to read their responses.
As of Oct. 13, eight special elections have been called for the 119th Congress. From the 113th Congress to the 118th Congress, 80 special elections were held. For more data on historical congressional special elections, click here.
