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Welcome to the Tuesday, October 30 Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Michigan state spotlight
- Mississippi state spotlight
- Ballotpedia's annual initiative signature petition costs report
Michigan: Pure Michigan
Michigan is holding elections for one U.S. Senate seat, all 14 U.S. House seats (Michigan’s 13th Congressional District is holding both a regular and special election), governor and five other state executive offices, all 38 state Senate seats, all 110 state House seats, two state Supreme Court seats, and 11 appellate court seats. Three statewide measures are on the ballot. Ballotpedia is also covering local elections in Wayne County as well as school board elections in Ann Arbor, Dearborn, and Detroit.
What is the partisan balance in the state?
Congress: Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats and four U.S. House seats. Republicans hold nine U.S. House seats, and one seat is vacant.
Governor: Republican.
Lt. Governor: Republican.
Attorney General: Republican.
State Senate: 27-10 Republican majority with one vacancy.
State House: 63-46 Republican majority with one vacancy.
Races to watch
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Michigan’s 8th Congressional District: U.S. Rep. Mike Bishop (R), former Obama administration official Elissa Slotkin (D), Brian Ellison (L), and David Jay Lillis (U.S. Taxpayers) are running in the election. Bishop was first elected in 2014 by 22.5 percentage points and was re-elected in 2016 by 26.8 percentage points. The district voted for Donald Trump (R) over Hillary Clinton (D) by 6.7 percentage points in the 2016 presidential election.
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Michigan’s 11th Congressional District: Business owner Lena Epstein (R), U.S. Treasury official Haley Stevens (D), public relations account executive Cooper Nye (I), and economist Leonard Schwartz (L) are running in the general election. Incumbent David Trott (R), who was first elected in 2014, is not seeking re-election in 2018, setting up a competitive race to replace him. In 2016, Trott was re-elected by 13 points. Although the district backed Barack Obama (D) in 2008, it voted for Mitt Romney (R) and Donald Trump (R) in the following presidential elections.
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Michigan governor: Former state Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer (D), Michigan Attorney General Bill Schuette (R), and four other candidates are running in the general election. Incumbent Gov. Rick Snyder (R), who is term-limited, was first elected in 2010 by 18.2 percentage points and re-elected in 2014 by 4.0 percentage points. Snyder was the only Republican to win a gubernatorial or U.S. Senate election in Michigan from 2000 to 2017. Michigan has been a Republican trifecta since 2010. The winner of this election will also have the ability to influence the state's redistricting process following the 2020 census.
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Michigan attorney general: Dana Nessel (D), Tom Leonard (R), and three third party candidates are competing in the race. Incumbent Bill Schuette (R), who was first elected in 2010, is prevented by term limits from seeking re-election. Michigan's Republican Party is looking to win its fifth straight attorney general election in 2018. This contrasts with the state's trend in choosing a presidential nominee; in the five presidential elections leading up to 2018, Michigan was won by the Democratic candidate in 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012 and by the Republican candidate in 2016.
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Michigan secretary of state: Jocelyn Benson (D), Mary Treder Lang (R), Gregory Scott Stemple (L), and Robert Gale (U.S. Taxpayers) are running in the election. Heading into the election, Michigan is a Republican triplex, with the party holding the governor, attorney general, and secretary of state offices.
What you need to know if you’re a Michigan voter
Early voting dates: Michigan does not permit early voting.
Polls open/close: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voter ID: A voter without photo identification may sign an affidavit attesting that he or she is not in possession of photo identification.
Bookmark your sample ballot.
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Mississippi: Feels Like Coming Home
Mississippi is holding elections for both U.S. Senate seats, four U.S. House seats, one state Supreme Court seat, and five appellate court seats. Mississippi does not hold regular statewide elections in even-numbered years. Ballotpedia is also covering the DeSoto County school board election.
What is the partisan balance in the state?
Congress: Republicans hold both U.S. Senate seats and three U.S. House seats. Democrats hold one U.S. House seat.
Governor: Republican.
Lt. Governor: Republican.
Attorney General: Democrat.
State Senate: 33-19 Republican majority.
State House: 74-46 Republican majority with two vacancies.
Race to watch
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U.S. Senate special election: Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R), Tobey Bartee (D), former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Mike Espy (D), and state Sen. Chris McDaniel (R) are running in the special election for U.S. Senate in Mississippi. The winner will complete former Sen. Thad Cochran's (R) term, which ends in 2021. The special election is nonpartisan, with all four candidates running on one ballot without their partisan affiliation listed. In the likely event no candidate receives a majority of the vote in the November 6 special election, a runoff will take place on November 27.
What you need to know if you’re a Mississippi voter
Early voting dates: Mississippi does not permit early voting.
Polls open/close: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voter ID: Mississippi voters are required to present photo identification in order to vote in person. A photo ID is not required to vote absentee.
Bookmark your sample ballot.
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Ballotpedia's annual initiative signature petition costs report
Our Ballot Measures team just released its report on the total signature gathering costs for measures in 2018.
It’s an in-depth look at the total signature gathering costs and the cost-per-required-signature for measures that qualified for 2018 state ballots.
Of the 26 states that feature a process for some kind of citizen-initiated measure, 21 of them featured either a ballot initiative, a veto referendum, or both in 2018. A total of between $74.4 million and $78.8 million was spent on the signature petitions for the 68 citizen-initiated measures that were on the ballot in 2018.* A combined total of 11,110,180 valid signatures from registered voters were required to qualify the measures for the ballots.
*A range was required because of unknown variables concerning petition costs in Colorado.
Here are some highlights:
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The average total cost for qualifying an initiative or veto referendum for the ballot in 2018 was between $1.1 million and $1.2 million.
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The average CPRS across all the initiatives that were on the ballot in 2018 was between $6.19 and $6.85.
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In 2016, the average total cost was $1.03 million, and the average CPRS was $5.6.
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From 2010 through 2016, the average total cost per initiative in even-numbered years was $801,836, and the average CPRS was $4.2. Citizen-initiated measures were on the ballot in between 14 and 17 states from 2010 through 2016.
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The states with the highest average total cost for initiative petitions were Florida ($4.6 million), Ohio ($3.7 million), and California ($2.6 million).
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The states with the lowest average total cost for initiative petitions were Oklahoma ($13,500), Maine ($95,700), and South Dakota ($104,000).
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The states with the highest average CPRS for initiatives that were on the ballot were Arkansas ($12.11), Ohio ($11.97), and Idaho ($11.14).
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The states with the lowest average CPRS for initiatives that were on the ballot were Michigan ($3.42), Maine ($1.57), and Oklahoma ($0.21).
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The most expensive individual initiative petition drives in 2018 were Arizona Proposition 127 ($5,843,652), Florida Amendment 3 ($5,282,534), and California Proposition 5 ($5,140,990).
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The three individual initiative petition drives with the highest cost per required signature in 2018 were Arizona Proposition 127 ($25.86), Idaho Proposition 1 ($22.27), and Arkansas Issue 4 ($16.69).
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Gambling was the topic with the most expensive signature gathering efforts; the three gambling-related initiatives on the ballot (in Arkansas, Florida, and Idaho) had the highest average CPRS at $15.28.
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