Daily Brew: September 10, 2025

September 11 →

← September 9

Wake up and learn

Email *

Please complete the Captcha above

Welcome to the Wednesday, Sept. 10, 2025, Brew. 

By: Lara Bonatesta

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. Why party control of U.S. House seats and national vote totals don’t always align
2. Massachusetts Attorney General approves 44 initiatives to gather signatures for the 2026 and 2028 ballots 
3. Nine state legislatures are in session, one in special session

Why party control of U.S. House seats and national vote totals don’t always align

As states implement or consider new congressional district boundaries ahead of the 2026 elections, debates over how votes translate into control of U.S. House seats are in the spotlight. Our review of more than 40 years of data shows that the share of all House votes a party receives across the country does not always align with the number of seats that party controls.

In the 2024 U.S. House elections, Democrats won 47.2% of votes and 49.4% of seats, while Republicans won 49.7% of votes and 50.6% of seats. These types of gaps are not uncommon and have at times been much bigger. 

Since 1980, Democrats’ share of seats exceeded their share of the vote in 17 of 23 House elections. Republicans, meanwhile, outperformed their vote share in 15 of 23 elections. 

The largest differences between the Democratic Party's share of seats won and its national vote share were in 1990 and 1992. In 1990, Democrats received 52.0% of the vote but won 267 seats (61.4%). In 1992, they received 49.9% of the vote but won 258 seats (59.3%).

For Republicans, the largest difference was in 2016. That year, they received 48.3% of the vote but won 241 seats (55.4%).

In all but two elections, 1996 and 2012, the party with the larger national vote share won a majority in the House. In both cases, Republicans won a majority of seats while earning fewer total votes nationwide. 

• 1996: Democrats won 48.1% of House votes nationwide to Republicans’ 47.8%. Republicans won a 226-207-2 majority.
• 2012: Democrats won 48.4% of House votes nationwide to Republicans’ 47.1%. Republicans won a 234-201 majority. 

Why mismatches occur

To what extent do redistricting, gerrymandering, geography, population shifts, and the House's structure influence these mismatches? Analysts haven’t agreed on a definitive answer.

The Public Policy Institute of California's Eric McGhee writes: "[S]ingle-member district elections—like the ones for the US House of Representatives—have historically had a natural 'winner’s bonus' that usually gives the majority party a higher seat share than vote share, even without a gerrymander. For example, a party winning 55% of the votes would rarely win exactly 55% of the seats. It would almost always win at least a few percentage points more, and sometimes far more than that. So a modest seats-votes discrepancy is normal and not a sign of gerrymandering." A single-member district is an electoral district that sends one officeholder to a body.

Other factors, such as split-ticket voting, could also contribute. During Ronald Reagan’s (R) presidency in the 1980s, Democrats controlled the House. The Atlantic's Ronald Brownstein writes, "About 190 districts split their votes during landslides for Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, largely because many conservative southerners still voted Democratic for the House even as they backed those GOP presidential candidates."

If you'd like to dive deeper into each statistic by year or party, click here.

Massachusetts Attorney General approves 44 initiatives to gather signatures for the 2026 and 2028 ballots 

On Sept. 3, the Massachusetts Office of the Attorney General announced that 44 separate initiative petitions were approved to begin gathering signatures. 

The attorney general’s approval to gather signatures does not indicate support for the initiatives or guarantee that the initiative will be placed on the ballot. Instead, it means that the attorney general has found that the initiatives do not violate the Massachusetts Constitution, do not address more than one subject, and do not address any restricted subjects. Restricted subjects include religion, the judicial system, the prohibition of alcohol, or the state declaration of rights. 

Initiative organizers and supporters have until Dec. 3 to submit 74,574 valid signatures to send an initiative to the Legislature. Massachusetts also has a signature distribution requirement. No more than 25% of the certified signatures on any petition can come from a single county.

Four initiatives are proposed constitutional amendments. The earliest they can be placed on the ballot is 2028. The other 40 initiatives, all state statutes, can now gather signatures to place the initiative on the November 2026 ballot.

The 44 approved initiatives address 28 unique topics, the most common being land use and development policy, utility policy, salaries of government officials, open meetings and public information, and income taxes. Here’s a selection of notable or interesting measures. Click on the links below to learn more, and click here to find a full list of measures proposed for the 2026 ballot.

• Prohibit Annual Increases of More Than 5% in Rent Initiative:
• Require Voter Photo ID Initiative
• Alter Marijuana Regulation Laws Initiative
• Top-Two Primary Elections Initiative
• Repeal Multi-Family Zoning Requirements in MBTA Communities Initiative
• Require Written Consent for Charges in Delivering Utilities Initiative

Past proposed initiatives in Massachusetts 

In Massachusetts, supporters propose initiatives, and the attorney general approves them in odd years preceding elections in even years. For example, initiatives on the 2020 ballot were proposed in 2019.

In 2025, the attorney general approved 93.6% of proposed initiatives to gather signatures. Between 2019 and 2025, the attorney general approved an average of 28 (or 75.5%) proposed initiatives each year. In the same time, the attorney general declined an average of nine initiatives (or 25.5%) per year.

The 44 initiatives approved in 2025 are the most the attorney general has approved in any year since 2019. The only year with more proposed initiatives was 2023, when there were 54. 2025 ties with 2019 for the year with the fewest declined initiatives (3).

Massachusetts is one of 26 states with citizen initiatives and one of nine states where initiatives are indirect. This means the Legislature considers them first and can either:

• Approve them outright
• Take no action
• Send the amendment or statute to the ballot
• Amend the initiated amendment with a 75% vote of the state legislature
• Or propose an alternative to be placed on the ballot alongside the initiated amendment

Click here to learn more about Massachusetts ballot measures in 2026.  

As of Sept. 8, according to the 2025 MultiState Insider Resource, eight state legislatures are in regular session for this year, and one state is in special session. Oregon’s special session began on Aug. 29. 

According to the Associated Press, Gov. Tim Walz (D) announced that he will call a special session in the future to address gun legislation in Minnesota. On Sept. 4, Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) announced that she will schedule a special session on Oct. 1 to discuss how changes to the federal budget will affect New Mexico residents. 

The National Conference of State Legislatures keeps a tally of special legislative sessions throughout the year. So far this year, 12 states have convened 16 special sessions. In 2024, 16 states met for a total of 24 special sessions. In 2023, 25 states met for a total of 35 special sessions.

California’s regular session ends on Sept. 12. North Carolina’s regular session ends on Nov. 5. Massachusetts's regular session ends on Nov. 19. The remaining five states, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, will conclude their sessions on Dec. 31. 

State governments across the country hold legislative sessions, during which a state's elected representatives meet for a period of time to draft and vote on legislation and set state policies on issues such as taxation, education, and government spending. Forty-six state legislatures hold regular sessions annually, while the other four states—Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, and Texas—meet in odd-numbered years. 

Click here to learn more about legislative sessions in 2025.