Election results, 2020: Pivot Counties by congressional district
| 2020 Election Analysis: Pivot Counties |
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Retained • Boomerang Margins of victory Voter turnout Demographics |
Pivot Counties are the 206 counties nationwide Ballotpedia identified as having voted for Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Media and political observers sometimes refer to these counties as swing counties.
Ballotpedia defines Pivot Counties Trump won in 2020 as Retained Pivot Counties and those Joe Biden (D) won as Boomerang Pivot Counties.
Trump won 181 Retained Pivot Counties across 32 states to Biden's 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties across 16 states. Trump's median margin of victory was 13.2 percentage points in those 181 counties, while Biden's median margin of victory was 3.4 percentage points among the 25 he won.[1][2]
There were 102 congressional districts (23.4% of all districts) based on boundaries adopted after the 2010 census that contained at least one Pivot County, in whole or in part. This page provides a list of those congressional districts at the time of the 2020 presidential election.
Congressional districts containing Pivot Counties
Overview
Republicans won eight Congressional districts containing Pivot Counties that were previously held by Democrats. Democrats did not flip any districts. The table below shows a comparison between partisan control of Congressional districts containing Pivot Counties immediately following the 2018 and 2020 Congressional elections.
| Partisan control of Congressional districts containing Pivot Counties, 2018-2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | 2018 | 2020 | Change | ||||
| Democratic | 44 | 38 | -6 | ||||
| Republican | 54 | 64 | +8 | ||||
| Excluded | 4[3] | - | - | ||||
The map below shows the outcome of the 2020 U.S. House elections in the congressional districts containing Pivot Counties. Those colored dark gray have been redistricted mid-cycle and are not included in this analysis.
Hover over each district to view its Pivot Counties and party control from 2016 to 2020.
List of Congressional districts containing Pivot Counties
The table below lists all congressional districts that encompass all or part of at least one Pivot County. Additionally, the table shows the winning party in each district's U.S. House elections from 2016 to 2020.
The rightmost column shows how each county voted in the 2020 presidential election. Retained Pivot Counties voted for Trump again after voting for him in 2016. Boomerang Pivot Counties voted for Biden after voting for Trump in 2016. Counties that span multiple districts are repeated and listed alongside each applicable district. Pivot Counties in North Carolina and Pennsylvania have incomplete data due to redistricting that has taken place since 2016.
| List of congressional districts containing Pivot Counties, 2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Winning party, 2016 | Winning party, 2018 | Winning party, 2020[4] | Pivot Counties | Retained/ Boomerang | ||
| Arkansas District 01 |  Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Woodruff | Retained | ||
| Colorado District 03 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| Conejos | Retained | ||||||
| Huerfano | Retained | ||||||
| Pueblo | Boomerang | ||||||
| Colorado District 04 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Las Animas | Retained | ||
| Connecticut District 02 |  Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Windham | Retained | ||
| Delaware's At-Large District | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Kent | Boomerang | ||
| Florida District 02 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Jefferson | Retained | ||
| Florida District 12 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Pinellas | Boomerang | ||
| Florida District 13 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Pinellas | Boomerang | ||
| Florida District 18 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
St. Lucie | Retained | ||
| Florida District 26 | Republican |
Democratic |
Republican |
Monroe | Retained | ||
| Georgia District 02 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| Baker | Retained | ||||||
| Dooly | Retained | ||||||
| Peach | Retained | ||||||
| Quitman | Retained | ||||||
| Georgia District 08 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Twiggs | Retained | ||
| Illinois District 12 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Alexander | Retained | ||
| Illinois District 16 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Putnam | Retained | ||
| Illinois District 17 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| Carroll | Retained | ||||||
| Fulton | Retained | ||||||
| Henderson | Retained | ||||||
| Henry | Retained | ||||||
| Jo Daviess | Retained | ||||||
| Knox | Retained | ||||||
| Mercer | Retained | ||||||
| Warren | Retained | ||||||
| Whiteside | Retained | ||||||
| Indiana District 01 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| LaPorte | Retained | ||||||
| Porter | Retained | ||||||
| Indiana District 02 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
LaPorte | Retained | ||
| Indiana District 06 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Delaware | Retained | ||
| Indiana District 08 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| Perry | Retained | ||||||
| Vigo | Retained | ||||||
| Iowa District 01 | Republican |
Democratic |
Republican
| ||||
| Allamakee | Retained | ||||||
| Bremer | Retained | ||||||
| Buchanan | Retained | ||||||
| Clayton | Retained | ||||||
| Dubuque | Retained | ||||||
| Fayette | Retained | ||||||
| Howard | Retained | ||||||
| Jackson | Retained | ||||||
| Jones | Retained | ||||||
| Marshall | Retained | ||||||
| Mitchell | Retained | ||||||
| Poweshiek | Retained | ||||||
| Tama | Retained | ||||||
| Winneshiek | Retained | ||||||
| Worth | Retained | ||||||
| Iowa District 02 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Republican
| ||||
| Cedar | Retained | ||||||
| Clarke | Retained | ||||||
| Clinton | Retained | ||||||
| Des Moines | Retained | ||||||
| Jasper | Retained | ||||||
| Jefferson | Retained | ||||||
| Lee | Retained | ||||||
| Louisa | Retained | ||||||
| Muscatine | Retained | ||||||
| Wapello | Retained | ||||||
| Iowa District 03 | Republican |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Union | Retained | ||
| Iowa District 04 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| Boone | Retained | ||||||
| Cerro Gordo | Retained | ||||||
| Chickasaw | Retained | ||||||
| Floyd | Retained | ||||||
| Webster | Retained | ||||||
| Kentucky District 05 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Elliott | Retained | ||
| Maine District 01 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Kennebec | Boomerang | ||
| Maine District 02 | Republican |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| Androscoggin | Retained | ||||||
| Aroostook | Retained | ||||||
| Franklin | Retained | ||||||
| Kennebec | Boomerang | ||||||
| Oxford | Retained | ||||||
| Penobscot | Retained | ||||||
| Somerset | Retained | ||||||
| Washington | Retained | ||||||
| Michigan District 01 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| Gogebic | Retained | ||||||
| Manistee | Retained | ||||||
| Michigan District 02 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Lake | Retained | ||
| Michigan District 03 | Republican |
Republican[5] |
Republican |
Calhoun | Retained | ||
| Michigan District 04 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| Isabella | Retained | ||||||
| Saginaw | Boomerang | ||||||
| Shiawassee | Retained | ||||||
| Michigan District 05 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| Bay | Retained | ||||||
| Saginaw | Boomerang | ||||||
| Michigan District 06 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Van Buren | Retained | ||
| Michigan District 07 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| Eaton | Retained | ||||||
| Monroe | Retained | ||||||
| Michigan District 09 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Macomb | Retained | ||
| Michigan District 10 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Macomb | Retained | ||
| Minnesota District 01 | Democratic |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| Blue Earth | Boomerang | ||||||
| Fillmore | Retained | ||||||
| Freeborn | Retained | ||||||
| Houston | Retained | ||||||
| Mower | Retained | ||||||
| Nicollet | Boomerang | ||||||
| Rice | Retained | ||||||
| Winona | Boomerang | ||||||
| Minnesota District 02 | Republican |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Rice | Retained | ||
| Minnesota District 07 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Republican
| ||||
| Beltrami | Retained | ||||||
| Chippewa | Retained | ||||||
| Clay | Boomerang | ||||||
| Kittson | Retained | ||||||
| Lac qui Parle | Retained | ||||||
| Mahnomen | Retained | ||||||
| Norman | Retained | ||||||
| Swift | Retained | ||||||
| Traverse | Retained | ||||||
| Minnesota District 08 | Democratic |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| Beltrami | Retained | ||||||
| Itasca | Retained | ||||||
| Koochiching | Retained | ||||||
| Mississippi District 01 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Chickasaw | Retained | ||
| Mississippi District 02 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Panola | Retained | ||
| Montana's At-large District | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| Blaine | Boomerang | ||||||
| Hill | Retained | ||||||
| Roosevelt | Retained | ||||||
| Nebraska District 01 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Thurston | Retained | ||
| New Hampshire District 01 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Hillsborough | Boomerang | ||
| New Hampshire District 02 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| Coos | Retained | ||||||
| Hillsborough | Boomerang | ||||||
| Sullivan | Boomerang | ||||||
| New Jersey District 01 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Gloucester | Boomerang | ||
| New Jersey District 02 | Republican |
Democratic[6] |
Republican[7]
| ||||
| Gloucester | Boomerang | ||||||
| Salem | Retained | ||||||
| New Mexico District 01 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Valencia | Retained | ||
| New Mexico District 02 | Republican |
Democratic |
Republican
| ||||
| Hidalgo | Retained | ||||||
| Valencia | Retained | ||||||
| New Mexico District 03 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Colfax | Retained | ||
| New York District 01 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Suffolk | Retained | ||
| New York District 02 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Suffolk | Retained | ||
| New York District 03 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Suffolk | Retained | ||
| New York District 18 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Orange | Retained | ||
| New York District 19 | Republican |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| Broome | Boomerang | ||||||
| Otsego | Retained | ||||||
| Rensselaer | Boomerang | ||||||
| Sullivan | Retained | ||||||
| New York District 20 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| Rensselaer | Boomerang | ||||||
| Saratoga | Boomerang | ||||||
| New York District 21 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| Broome | Boomerang | ||||||
| Essex | Boomerang | ||||||
| Franklin | Retained | ||||||
| Saratoga | Boomerang | ||||||
| St. Lawrence | Retained | ||||||
| Warren | Retained | ||||||
| Washington | Retained | ||||||
| New York District 22 | Republican |
Democratic |
Republican
| ||||
| Cortland | Retained | ||||||
| Madison | Retained | ||||||
| Oswego | Retained | ||||||
| New York District 23 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Seneca | Retained | ||
| New York District 24 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| Cayuga | Retained | ||||||
| Oswego | Retained | ||||||
| New York District 26 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Niagara | Retained | ||
| New York District 27 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Niagara | Retained | ||
| North Carolina District 01 | Not applicable due to redistricting | Democratic
| |||||
| Gates | Retained | ||||||
| Martin | Retained | ||||||
| North Carolina District 04 | Not applicable due to redistricting | Democratic |
Granville | Retained | |||
| North Carolina District 07 | Not applicable due to redistricting | Republican |
Bladen | Retained | |||
| North Carolina District 09 | Not applicable due to redistricting | Republican
| |||||
| Richmond | Retained | ||||||
| Robeson | Retained | ||||||
| North Dakota's At-Large District | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| Benson | Retained | ||||||
| Ransom | Retained | ||||||
| Sargent | Retained | ||||||
| Steele | Retained | ||||||
| Ohio District 04 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| Erie | Retained | ||||||
| Sandusky | Retained | ||||||
| Ohio District 05 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| Ottawa | Retained | ||||||
| Wood | Retained | ||||||
| Ohio District 07 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Stark | Retained | ||
| Ohio District 09 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| Erie | Retained | ||||||
| Ottawa | Retained | ||||||
| Ohio District 10 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Montgomery | Boomerang | ||
| Ohio District 13 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| Stark | Retained | ||||||
| Portage | Retained | ||||||
| Trumbull | Retained | ||||||
| Ohio District 14 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| Portage | Retained | ||||||
| Trumbull | Retained | ||||||
| Ashtabula | Retained | ||||||
| Ohio District 16 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| Stark | Retained | ||||||
| Portage | Retained | ||||||
| Oregon District 01 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Columbia | Retained | ||
| Oregon District 05 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Tillamook | Retained | ||
| Pennsylvania District 07 | Not applicable due to redistricting. | Democratic |
Democratic |
Northampton | Boomerang | ||
| Pennsylvania District 08 | Not applicable due to redistricting. | Democratic |
Democratic |
Luzerne | Retained | ||
| Pennsylvania District 09 | Not applicable due to redistricting. | Republican |
Republican |
Luzerne | Retained | ||
| Pennsylvania District 13 | Not applicable due to redistricting. | Republican |
Republican |
Erie | Boomerang | ||
| Rhode Island District 02 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Kent | Boomerang | ||
| South Carolina District 01 | Republican |
Democratic |
Republican |
Colleton | Retained | ||
| South Carolina District 02 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Barnwell | Retained | ||
| South Carolina District 03 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
McCormick | Retained | ||
| South Carolina District 05 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Chester | Retained | ||
| South Carolina District 06 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| Calhoun | Retained | ||||||
| Colleton | Retained | ||||||
| South Dakota At-Large District | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| Corson | Retained | ||||||
| Day | Retained | ||||||
| Marshall | Retained | ||||||
| Roberts | Retained | ||||||
| Ziebach | Boomerang | ||||||
| Tennessee District 07 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Hardeman | Retained | ||
| Texas District 14 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Jefferson | Retained | ||
| Vermont At-Large District | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Essex | Retained | ||
| Virginia District 01 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| Caroline | Retained | ||||||
| Essex | Retained | ||||||
| Westmoreland | Retained | ||||||
| Virginia District 05 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| Buckingham | Retained | ||||||
| Nelson | Retained | ||||||
| Washington District 03 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| Cowlitz | Retained | ||||||
| Pacific | Retained | ||||||
| Washington District 06 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| Clallam | Boomerang | ||||||
| Grays Harbor | Retained | ||||||
| Mason | Retained | ||||||
| Washington District 10 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Mason | Retained | ||
| Wisconsin District 01 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| Kenosha | Retained | ||||||
| Racine | Retained | ||||||
| Wisconsin District 02 | Demcoratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| Lafayette | Retained | ||||||
| Richland | Retained | ||||||
| Sauk | Boomerang | ||||||
| Wisconsin District 03 | Demcoratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| Adams | Retained | ||||||
| Buffalo | Retained | ||||||
| Crawford | Retained | ||||||
| Dunn | Retained | ||||||
| Grant | Retained | ||||||
| Jackson | Retained | ||||||
| Juneau | Retained | ||||||
| Pepin | Retained | ||||||
| Richland | Retained | ||||||
| Trempealeau | Retained | ||||||
| Vernon | Retained | ||||||
| Wisconsin District 06 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| Columbia | Retained | ||||||
| Marquette | Retained | ||||||
| Winnebago | Retained | ||||||
| Wisconsin District 07 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| Forest | Retained | ||||||
| Jackson | Retained | ||||||
| Juneau | Retained | ||||||
| Lincoln | Retained | ||||||
| Price | Retained | ||||||
| Sawyer | Retained | ||||||
| Wisconsin District 08 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| Winnebago | Retained | ||||||
| Door | Boomerang | ||||||
Last updated: Dec. 11, 9:30 a.m. ET
Historical results by Pivot County make-up
In the 2020 elections, there were 102 Congressional districts encompassing at least one Pivot County. By make-up, there were 76 districts that encompassed no Boomerang Pivot Counties, 11 that encompassed no Retained Pivot Counties, and 15 that encompassed both Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties.
Democrats made net gains in districts with no Boomerang Pivot Counties and those with both Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties in 2018, seeing 33% increases in both categories. Republicans saw no net gains in 2018. Following the 2020 elections, partisan control has returned to near-2016 levels, with Republicans seeing gains in the above-mentioned districts and Democrats seeing no net gains.
In districts with no Boomerang Pivot Counties, Democrats gained six seats in 2018. Republicans gained six seats in 2020. In districts containing both Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties, Democrats gained two seats in 2018. In 2020, Republican gained two seats in such districts.
In districts with no Retained Pivot Counties, partisan control remained unchanged from 2016 to 2020 with Democrats holding seven seats to Republicans' two.
The table below shows partisan control of districts by their Pivot County make-up from 2016 to 2020. Totals do not add to 102, but rather 94. Eight districts that have been redistricted since 2016 were excluded from this analysis.[8]
| Pivot County make-up of Congressional districts by partisan control, 2016-2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Make-up | 2016 | 2018 | 2020 | Total | |||
| Democratic | Republican | Democratic | Republican | Democratic | Republican | ||
| No Boomerang | 21 | 49 | 27 | 43 | 21 | 49 | 70 |
| Both | 6 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 15 |
| No Retained | 7 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| Total | 34 | 60 | 44 | 54 | 38 | 64 | 95 |
The map below shows Congressional districts containing Pivot Counties colored by partisan control and Pivot County make-up. Districts shaded black either have unavailable results or underwent mid-cycle redistricting.
See also
- Pivot Counties in the 2018 U.S. House elections
- Pivot Counties by state legislative district
- Pivot Counties in the 2020 presidential election
Footnotes
- ↑ This analysis does not include counties in Alaska and certain independent cities due to variations in vote total reporting.
- ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
- ↑ Four districts in North Carolina are excluded from 2018 analyses due to mid-cycle redistricting.
- ↑ Projected
- ↑ This candidate was Justin Amash who, after winning re-election in 2018 as a Republican, switched his party affiliation to Libertarian.
- ↑ This candidate was Jeff Van Drew who was elected as a Democrat before switching to the Republican Party.
- ↑ This was the same candidate who won in 2018 as a Democrat, Jeff Van Drew.
- ↑ Breakdown of excluded districts:
Pennsylvania: two Democrat-held seats (one with no Retained, one with no Boomerang), two Republican-held seats (one with no Retained, one with no Boomerang).
North Carolina: two Democrat-held seats (both with no Boomerang), two Republican-held seats (both with no Boomerang).
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