Become part of the movement for unbiased, accessible election information. Donate today.

Election results, 2020: Pivot Counties in the 2020 presidential election

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search
Ballotpedia-Elections-Portal-Masthead-Image-icons.png
2020 Election Analysis:
Pivot Counties
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Presidential election
Pivot Counties in the 2020 presidential election
RetainedBoomerang
Margins of victory
Voter turnout
Demographics

Congressional elections
Pivot Counties by congressional district

State legislative elections
Pivot Counties by state legislative district

Other
Reverse-Pivot Counties

Other year reports
201620182022

Pivot Counties by state

2020 Election Analysis Hub


Pivot Counties are the 206 counties nationwide Ballotpedia identified as having voted for Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Media and political observers sometimes refer to these counties as swing counties.

Ballotpedia defines Pivot Counties Trump won in 2020 as Retained Pivot Counties and those Joe Biden (D) won as Boomerang Pivot Counties.

Trump won 181 Retained Pivot Counties to Biden's 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties. Trump's median margin of victory was 13.2 percentage points in those 181 counties, while Biden's median margin of victory was 3.4 percentage points among the 25 he won.[1][2]

Results indicate an urban-rural divide between Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties. Retained Pivot Counties tend to be less populous compared to Boomerang Pivot Counties. On average, Retained Pivot Counties have a population of 62,980 compared to 186,852 for Boomerang Pivot Counties.

Overview

Beyond the Headlines - Title Banner.png
Staff Writer Doug Kronaizl gives a quick overview of Ballotpedia's 2020 Pivot Counties coverage
View other episodes here.
See also: Presidential election, 2020

Pivot Counties are the 206 counties nationwide Ballotpedia identified as having voted for Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Media and political observers sometimes refer to these counties as swing counties.

Following the 2020 presidential election, there were:

  • 181 Retained Pivot Counties across 32 states: Trump won these counties with a median margin of victory of 13.2 percentage points.
  • 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties across 16 states: Biden won these counties with a median margin of victory of 3.4 percentage points.


Total Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties
2020 overview
Retained Boomerang
Number 181 25
Average population 62,980 186,852

Map of Pivot Counties

Margin of victory analysis

This table provides an overview of the 2020 presidential election results in the 206 Pivot Counties. The first section shows an overview of those counties following the 2020 presidential election—including the number won by Donald Trump (R) and Joe Biden (D) as well as both candidates' respective average and median margins of victory in the counties each won. The second section shows the average and median margins of victory in these 206 counties as they voted for Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008.

Overview of counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 following the 2020 presidential election
2020 overview
Trump Biden Total
# Won 181 25 206
Average margin of victory R+14.1 D+3.3 R+12.0
Median margin of victory R+13.2 D+3.4 R+10.9
Historical overview
2016
(Trump)
2012
(Obama)
2008
(Obama)
Average R+11.5 D+8.2 D+12.3
Median R+9.4 D+7.3 D+11.9


Compared to the 2016 election, Trump's margin of victory decreased in 68 Retained Pivot Counties and increased in 113. Compared to Obama's results in 2012, the last time a Democrat won in these counties, Biden's margin of victory in Boomerang Pivot Counties represents a decrease in 22 and an increase in three.

The table below highlights the five counties with the largest swings in margin of victory for Democrats and Republicans each since 2016. Obama's margins from 2012 are included for reference.

Largest margin changes in the 206 Pivot Counties by party, 2020
County State Change from 2016 2020 margin 2016 margin 2012 margin
Largest margin changes towards Trump
Woodruff County Arkansas R+18.8 R+27.8 R+8.9 D+4.2
Robeson County North Carolina R+14.4 R+18.6 R+4.3 D+17.4
Benson County North Dakota R+9.5 R+13.9 R+4.3 D+17.01
Chickasaw County Iowa R+8.4 R+31.3 R+22.9 D+11.1
Hidalgo County New Mexico R+8.3 R+15.1 R+6.7 D+5.0
Largest margin changes towards Biden
Ziebach County South Dakota D+10.5 D+8.5 R+2.0 D+16.4
Kent County Delaware D+8.9 D+4.1 R+4.9 D+4.9
Saratoga County New York D+8.6 D+5.4 R+3.2 D+2.4
Kent County Rhode Island D+8.3 D+7.6 R+0.7 D+17.7
Warren County New York D+8.3 R+0.2 R+8.5 D+2.3


List of Pivot Counties

The table below lists all 206 Pivot Counties as well as the winner of those counties following the 2020 election. Additional information includes the margins of victory from 2008 to 2020.

Analysis of counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 following the 2020 presidential election[1]
County State Status, 2020 Margin of Victory, 2020 Trump Margin of Victory, 2016 Obama Margin of Victory, 2012 Obama Margin of Victory, 2008
Woodruff County Arkansas Retained +27.75 +8.91 +4.21 +7.46
Conejos County Colorado Retained +7.55 +3.56 +9.22 +12.93
Huerfano County Colorado Retained +2.88 +6.61 +8.27 +11.23
Las Animas County Colorado Retained +9.89 +15.6 +2.65 +7.04
Pueblo County Colorado Boomerang +1.72 +0.5 +13.99 +14.97
Windham County Connecticut Retained +4.27 +7.78 +13.28 +14.68
Kent County Delaware Boomerang +4.07 +4.87 +4.94 +9.81
Jefferson County Florida Retained +6.87 +5.06 +1.75 +3.66
Monroe County Florida Retained +7.92 +6.82 +0.44 +4.9
Pinellas County Florida Boomerang +0.22 +1.11 +5.65 +8.25
St. Lucie County Florida Retained +1.56 +2.4 +7.86 +12.12
Baker County Georgia Retained +15.76 +8.68 +0.57 +1.07
Dooly County Georgia Retained +6.04 +2.05 +6.98 +3.53
Peach County Georgia Retained +4.65 +2.91 +7.48 +6.75
Quitman County Georgia Retained +9.67 +10.92 +9.04 +7.9
Twiggs County Georgia Retained +7.34 +1.58 +8.64 +6.97
Alexander County Illinois Retained +14.21 +8.3 +13.65 +12.62
Carroll County Illinois Retained +29.37 +26.69 +1.49 +4.81
Fulton County Illinois Retained +20.11 +14.93 +11.04 +21.33
Henderson County Illinois Retained +33.1 +28.43 +12.25 +17.67
Henry County Illinois Retained +21.47 +20.99 +3.08 +7.74
Jo Daviess County Illinois Retained +16.46 +14.64 +1.16 +10.49
Knox County Illinois Retained +5.64 +2.91 +17.37 +19.89
Mercer County Illinois Retained +23.98 +20.36 +7.39 +11.91
Putnam County Illinois Retained +19.32 +19.92 +1.82 +15.64
Warren County Illinois Retained +20.02 +16.5 +5.47 +8.08
Whiteside County Illinois Retained +8.31 +6.18 +17.02 +17.56
Delaware County Indiana Retained +13.18 +13.43 +3.12 +14.98
LaPorte County Indiana Retained +7.23 +6.33 +12.57 +22.04
Perry County Indiana Retained +24.56 +18.55 +11.59 +22.84
Porter County Indiana Retained +6.08 +6.59 +3.9 +7.2
Vigo County Indiana Retained +14.73 +14.97 +0.86 +15.83
Allamakee County Iowa Retained +29.09 +24.15 +4.17 +14.25
Boone County Iowa Retained +15.59 +13.69 +6.64 +7.63
Bremer County Iowa Retained +16.06 +13.68 +2.68 +9.31
Buchanan County Iowa Retained +20.89 +15.02 +13.87 +18.48
Cedar County Iowa Retained +17.04 +17.78 +4.59 +9.64
Cerro Gordo County Iowa Retained +6.31 +7.66 +13.38 +20.83
Chickasaw County Iowa Retained +31.29 +22.94 +11.07 +20.74
Clarke County Iowa Retained +35.93 +28.02 +1.47 +2.25
Clayton County Iowa Retained +28.83 +22.78 +7.03 +17.17
Clinton County Iowa Retained +10.33 +5.12 +22.84 +23.03
Des Moines County Iowa Retained +8.51 +6.89 +18.41 +23.04
Dubuque County Iowa Retained +2.89 +1.23 +14.71 +20.77
Fayette County Iowa Retained +22.68 +19.36 +11.96 +16.6
Floyd County Iowa Retained +19.42 +14.84 +14.63 +21.88
Howard County Iowa Retained +27.33 +20.49 +20.95 +25.78
Jackson County Iowa Retained +26.14 +19.27 +16.89 +24.39
Jasper County Iowa Retained +21.54 +18.13 +7.07 +7.5
Jefferson County Iowa Retained +1.38 +0.47 +15.97 +20.23
Jones County Iowa Retained +21.47 +19.08 +7.78 +10.4
Lee County Iowa Retained +19.31 +16.02 +15.49 +16.01
Louisa County Iowa Retained +33.27 +28.37 +0.64 +4.25
Marshall County Iowa Retained +7.69 +8.31 +9.36 +9.35
Mitchell County Iowa Retained +27.89 +24.04 +3.37 +12.31
Muscatine County Iowa Retained +7.02 +6.26 +15.88 +15.64
Poweshiek County Iowa Retained +13.32 +6.53 +9.35 +11.75
Tama County Iowa Retained +19.08 +20.28 +7.43 +12.19
Union County Iowa Retained +31.51 +27.49 +3.86 +3.7
Wapello County Iowa Retained +23.64 +20.6 +11.88 +13.53
Webster County Iowa Retained +24.27 +21.52 +5.84 +8.51
Winneshiek County Iowa Retained +5.12 +0.79 +14.74 +22.65
Worth County Iowa Retained +25.85 +21.68 +14.53 +22.42
Elliott County Kentucky Retained +51.22 +44.13 +2.5 +25.17
Androscoggin County Maine Retained +2.81 +9.38 +12.78 +15.22
Aroostook County Maine Retained +19.93 +17.19 +7.62 +9.58
Franklin County Maine Retained +3.94 +5.47 +18.41 +20.29
Kennebec County Maine Boomerang +0.25 +3.58 +13.46 +14.78
Oxford County Maine Retained +8.79 +12.94 +14.73 +16.04
Penobscot County Maine Retained +8.34 +10.91 +2.93 +5.12
Somerset County Maine Retained +23.37 +22.67 +1.68 +5.7
Washington County Maine Retained +19.78 +18.44 +1.6 +1.01
Bay County Michigan Retained +11.57 +12.55 +5.56 +15.31
Calhoun County Michigan Retained +11.08 +12.46 +1.6 +9.36
Eaton County Michigan Retained +0.78 +4.72 +3.13 +8.4
Gogebic County Michigan Retained +12.45 +14.8 +8.1 +17.27
Isabella County Michigan Retained +2.52 +3.66 +9.28 +19.26
Lake County Michigan Retained +26.18 +22.77 +5.01 +12.28
Macomb County Michigan Retained +8.07 +11.53 +3.99 +8.62
Manistee County Michigan Retained +15.11 +15.29 +5.93 +13.26
Monroe County Michigan Retained +22.61 +21.97 +0.98 +4.35
Saginaw County Michigan Boomerang +0.29 +1.13 +11.89 +17.34
Shiawassee County Michigan Retained +19.85 +19.59 +3.67 +8.59
Van Buren County Michigan Retained +12.23 +13.92 +0.45 +8.78
Beltrami County Minnesota Retained +3.15 +9.72 +9.89 +10.15
Blue Earth County Minnesota Boomerang +4.44 +3.69 +9.48 +12.95
Chippewa County Minnesota Retained +30.62 +28.7 +1.87 +5.87
Clay County Minnesota Boomerang +4.08 +1.95 +7.92 +16.02
Fillmore County Minnesota Retained +22.65 +21.7 +7.34 +8.26
Freeborn County Minnesota Retained +15.99 +17.24 +14.11 +17.13
Houston County Minnesota Retained +12.95 +13.87 +3.16 +10.69
Itasca County Minnesota Retained +16.77 +16.35 +9.83 +12.92
Kittson County Minnesota Retained +20.46 +22.05 +6.03 +18.54
Koochiching County Minnesota Retained +21.27 +19.85 +9.45 +10.1
Lac qui Parle County Minnesota Retained +26.78 +25.6 +0.9 +5.92
Mahnomen County Minnesota Retained +1.3 +2.92 +18.56 +25.31
Mower County Minnesota Retained +5.82 +7.82 +22.61 +23.61
Nicollet County Minnesota Boomerang +3.16 +3.04 +7.83 +10.52
Norman County Minnesota Retained +15.95 +13.34 +10.79 +26.94
Rice County Minnesota Retained +0.17 +3.06 +8.27 +11.5
Swift County Minnesota Retained +29.5 +25.57 +9.83 +13.79
Traverse County Minnesota Retained +27.41 +23.3 +4.44 +5.41
Winona County Minnesota Boomerang +0.39 +2.9 +12.85 +19.09
Chickasaw County Mississippi Retained +4.48 +6.06 +4.52 +2.13
Panola County Mississippi Retained +4.2 +0.12 +8.62 +6.52
Blaine County Montana Boomerang +3.85 +2.46 +15.32 +19.24
Hill County Montana Retained +13.59 +17.18 +3.5 +12.21
Roosevelt County Montana Retained +2.14 +6.49 +15.58 +26.27
Thurston County Nebraska Retained +2.44 +5.94 +13.91 +6.96
Coos County New Hampshire Retained +5.91 +8.89 +17.54 +18.19
Hillsborough County New Hampshire Boomerang +7.65 +0.2 +1.12 +3.73
Sullivan County New Hampshire Boomerang +3.61 +2.58 +13.27 +17.93
Gloucester County New Jersey Boomerang +1.94 +0.48 +10.77 +12.16
Salem County New Jersey Retained +12.77 +15 +1.31 +3.92
Colfax County New Mexico Retained +10.97 +8.55 +2.24 +10.73
Hidalgo County New Mexico Retained +15.05 +6.73 +4.96 +2.92
Valencia County New Mexico Retained +9.61 +8.6 +2.47 +7.72
Broome County New York Boomerang +3.45 +2.01 +5.31 +8.02
Cayuga County New York Retained +9.22 +11.64 +11.4 +8.48
Cortland County New York Retained +1.94 +5.58 +9.11 +9.96
Essex County New York Boomerang +5.04 +1.14 +18.77 +13.32
Franklin County New York Retained +2.15 +5.45 +26.07 +22.23
Madison County New York Retained +10.58 +14.2 +0.89 +0.87
Niagara County New York Retained +9.64 +17.75 +0.84 +1
Orange County New York Retained +0.18 +5.5 +5.65 +4.13
Oswego County New York Retained +20.18 +21.99 +7.93 +2.44
Otsego County New York Retained +5.01 +11.13 +2.72 +5.91
Rensselaer County New York Boomerang +5.63 +1.41 +12.19 +9.34
St. Lawrence County New York Retained +11.68 +8.82 +16.71 +16.33
Saratoga County New York Boomerang +5.4 +3.21 +2.44 +3.4
Seneca County New York Retained +9.05 +11.01 +9.08 +2.6
Suffolk County New York Retained +0.03 +6.84 +3.69 +5.99
Sullivan County New York Retained +9.17 +11.23 +9.02 +9.46
Warren County New York Retained +0.16 +8.47 +2.32 +2.64
Washington County New York Retained +15.55 +18.4 +1.9 +0.81
Bladen County North Carolina Retained +13.72 +9.39 +1.97 +2.07
Gates County North Carolina Retained +13.75 +9.07 +4.11 +5.22
Granville County North Carolina Retained +6.59 +2.49 +4.54 +6.58
Martin County North Carolina Retained +4.95 +0.43 +4.65 +4.64
Richmond County North Carolina Retained +14.81 +9.74 +2.95 +1.5
Robeson County North Carolina Retained +18.62 +4.27 +17.41 +13.78
Benson County North Dakota Retained +13.87 +4.33 +17.01 +33.53
Ransom County North Dakota Retained +19.27 +15.77 +13.77 +15.33
Sargent County North Dakota Retained +25.51 +19.73 +9.77 +17.49
Steele County North Dakota Retained +23.9 +17.72 +1.92 +20.35
Ashtabula County Ohio Retained +23.49 +18.8 +12.78 +13.54
Erie County Ohio Retained +11.55 +9.48 +12.29 +13.86
Montgomery County Ohio Boomerang +2.24 +0.73 +4.62 +6.22
Ottawa County Ohio Retained +23.37 +19.51 +4.3 +6.24
Portage County Ohio Retained +12.44 +9.87 +5.52 +8.99
Sandusky County Ohio Retained +27.55 +22.58 +2.71 +4.64
Stark County Ohio Retained +18.51 +17.17 +0.47 +5.46
Trumbull County Ohio Retained +10.55 +6.22 +23 +22.43
Wood County Ohio Retained +7.6 +7.99 +4.84 +7.13
Columbia County Oregon Retained +10.29 +11.46 +5.16 +12.02
Tillamook County Oregon Retained +1.71 +5.58 +4.86 +9.89
Erie County Pennsylvania Boomerang +1.03 +1.56 +16.03 +19.88
Luzerne County Pennsylvania Retained +14.37 +19.31 +4.81 +8.41
Northampton County Pennsylvania Boomerang +0.72 +3.78 +4.71 +12.3
Kent County Rhode Island Boomerang +7.64 +0.67 +17.74 +17.4
Barnwell County South Carolina Retained +7.48 +5.16 +5.33 +1.65
Calhoun County South Carolina Retained +4.82 +2.83 +4.31 +3.55
Chester County South Carolina Retained +10.91 +4.83 +10.58 +8.3
Colleton County South Carolina Retained +9.53 +8.49 +0.19 +0.53
McCormick County South Carolina Retained +4.76 +3.32 +3.6 +6.08
Corson County South Dakota Retained +1.95 +4.51 +11.08 +21.48
Day County South Dakota Retained +27.56 +23.77 +6.16 +12.89
Marshall County South Dakota Retained +19.7 +15.51 +8.66 +16.48
Roberts County South Dakota Retained +13.37 +15.53 +9.84 +19.64
Ziebach County South Dakota Boomerang +8.5 +1.96 +16.43 +27.16
Hardeman County Tennessee Retained +15.7 +7.92 +5.91 +6.18
Jefferson County Texas Retained +1.58 +0.48 +1.61 +2.25
Essex County Vermont Retained +11.19 +16.65 +13.4 +14.48
Buckingham County Virginia Retained +13.2 +11.28 +2.43 +0.87
Caroline County Virginia Retained +4.17 +5.02 +8.24 +11.97
Essex County Virginia Retained +0.6 +2.14 +7.3 +10.35
Nelson County Virginia Retained +5.21 +5.59 +2.72 +9.15
Westmoreland County Virginia Retained +8.23 +7.14 +6.95 +10.24
Clallam County Washington Boomerang +3.37 +2.76 +0.38 +3.3
Cowlitz County Washington Retained +17.4 +13.32 +4.44 +11.15
Grays Harbor County Washington Retained +6.56 +6.99 +14.11 +14.56
Mason County Washington Retained +3.86 +5.81 +7.09 +8.66
Pacific County Washington Retained +1.13 +6.74 +11.52 +14.07
Adams County Wisconsin Retained +25.66 +21.92 +8.73 +18.35
Buffalo County Wisconsin Retained +25.26 +21.82 +2.93 +14.66
Columbia County Wisconsin Retained +1.53 +2.14 +13.58 +15.26
Crawford County Wisconsin Retained +7.67 +5.4 +19.98 +27.03
Door County Wisconsin Boomerang +1.45 +3.22 +6.99 +17.33
Dunn County Wisconsin Retained +13.93 +11.09 +4.97 +14.95
Forest County Wisconsin Retained +30.95 +26.58 +5.44 +15.16
Grant County Wisconsin Retained +12.28 +9.43 +13.77 +23.88
Jackson County Wisconsin Retained +15.07 +11.74 +15.01 +21.84
Juneau County Wisconsin Retained +29.2 +26.05 +7.03 +9
Kenosha County Wisconsin Retained +3.13 +0.31 +12.23 +18.06
Lafayette County Wisconsin Retained +13.72 +8.99 +15.37 +22.32
Lincoln County Wisconsin Retained +22.77 +20.6 +0.71 +12.48
Marquette County Wisconsin Retained +27.36 +24.09 +0.27 +5.28
Pepin County Wisconsin Retained +26.42 +23.08 +2.22 +12.89
Price County Wisconsin Retained +27.64 +25 +0.04 +13.4
Racine County Wisconsin Retained +4.06 +4.28 +3.54 +7.41
Richland County Wisconsin Retained +9.72 +5.5 +16.13 +20.63
Sauk County Wisconsin Boomerang +1.7 +0.35 +18.47 +23.04
Sawyer County Wisconsin Retained +13.43 +18.41 +0.49 +6.23
Trempealeau County Wisconsin Retained +16.57 +12.64 +14.08 +26.39
Vernon County Wisconsin Retained +4.78 +4.43 +14.73 +22
Winnebago County Wisconsin Retained +3.97 +7.34 +3.73 +11.66
Average +11.45 +8.22 +12.29
Median +9.41 +7.32 +11.94

Last updated Jan. 4, 9:30 a.m. ET


See also

Footnotes

  1. 1.0 1.1 This analysis does not include counties in Alaska and certain independent cities due to variations in vote total reporting.
  2. The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.