News and analysis right to your inbox. Click to get Ballotpedia’s newsletters!

Election results, 2022: Congressional elections decided by 10 percentage points or fewer

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search
2024 »
« 2020
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Elections results and analysis
Election results, 2022
Election Analysis Hub, 2022
State government trifectas
State government triplexes
U.S. Congress
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
State legislatures
Governors
State executive officials
Attorneys General

Secretaries of State
State financial officers
State supreme courts

Last updated January 16, 2022.

In the 2022 U.S. Senate and U.S. House, 46 candidates won an election by five percentage points or fewer, representing 10% of all Congressional elections. Eighty-five candidates won an election by ten percentage points or fewer, representing 18% of all Congressional elections.

On this page, you will find tables of those congressional elections decided by ten percentage points or fewer in 2022.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • In 2022, 85 congressional races (ten Senate and 75 House) were decided by ten percentage points or fewer. In 2020, 89 races were decided by the same margin. In 2018, 102 were decided by ten percentage points or fewer.
  • In 2022, 46 congressional races (six Senate and 40 House) were decided by five percentage points or fewer. In 2020, 42 congressional races (five Senate and 37 House) were decided by less than a five percentage points margin, and in 2018, 50 (five Senate and 45 House) were.
  • Of the 85 congressional races in 2022 decided by a margin of ten percentage points or fewer, the Republican candidate won 34 of these elections, while the Democratic candidate won 51. Of the 46 congressional races in 2022 decided by a margin of five percentage points or fewer, the Democratic candidate won 26, while Republicans won 20.
  • Democratic candidates won the largest number of congressional races with a margin of victory of ten percentage points or fewer since 2014.
  • Historical comparison

    Elections where the margin of victory was 10 percentage points or fewer

    In 2022, there were 85 races where the margin of victory for the winner was 10 percentage points or fewer. Of these:

    • Ten were elections for the U.S. Senate, while 75 were elections for U.S. House seats.
    • The Republican candidate won 34 of these elections, while the Democratic candidate won 51.

    In 2020, there were 89 races where the margin of victory for the winner was 10 percentage points or fewer. Of these:

    • Twelve were elections for the U.S. Senate, while 77 were elections for U.S. House seats.
    • The Republican candidate won 45 of these elections, while the Democratic candidate won 44.

    In 2018, there were 102 races where the margin of victory for the winner was 10 percentage points or fewer. Of these:

    • Twelve were elections for the U.S. Senate, while 90 were elections for U.S. House seats.
    • The Democratic candidate won 49 of these elections, while the Republican candidate won 53.

    In 2016, there were 42 races where the margin of victory for the winner was 10 percentage points or fewer. Of these:

    • Nine were elections for the U.S. Senate, while 33 were elections for U.S. House seats.
    • The outcome of these elections was split evenly between Republicans and Democrats, with each party winning 21 of these elections.

    In 2014, there were 56 races where the margin of victory for the winner was 10 percentage points or fewer. Of these:

    • Seven were elections for the U.S. Senate, while 49 were elections for U.S. House seats.
    • The Democratic candidate won 32 of these elections, while the Republican candidate won 24.


    Elections where the margin of victory was 5 percentage points or fewer

    In 2022, there were 46 races where the margin of victory was 5 percentage points or fewer. Of these:

    • Six were elections for the U.S. Senate, while 40 were elections for U.S. House seats.
    • The Democratic candidate won 26 of these elections, while the Republican candidate won 20.

    In 2020, there were 42 races where the margin of victory was 5 percentage points or fewer. Of these:

    • Five were elections for the U.S. Senate, while 37 were elections for U.S. House seats.
    • The Democratic candidate won 23 of these elections, while the Republican candidate won 19.

    In 2018, there were 50 races where the margin of victory was 5 percentage points or fewer. Of these:

    • Five were elections for the U.S. Senate, while 45 were elections for U.S. House seats.
    • The Democratic candidate won 24 of these elections, while the Republican candidate won 26.

    In 2016, there were 22 races where the margin of victory was 5 percentage points or fewer. Of these:

    • Five were elections for the U.S. Senate, while 17 were elections for U.S. House seats.
    • The Democratic candidate won 14 of these elections, while the Republican candidate won eight.

    In 2014, there were 31 races where the margin of victory was 5 percentage points or fewer. Of these:

    • Five were elections for the U.S. Senate, while 26 were elections for U.S. House seats.
    • The Democratic candidate won 17 of these elections, while the Republican candidate won 14.


    2022 congressional elections decided by 10 percentage points or fewer

    U.S. Senate

    Congressional races decided by 10 percentage points or fewer, 2022
    State Winner Margin of victory Flipped seat? Open seat?
    U.S. Senate, Alaska Republican Party Lisa Murkowski 7.37% No No
    U.S. Senate, Arizona Democratic Party Mark Kelly 4.89% No No
    U.S. Senate, Georgia Democratic Party Raphael Warnock 2.81% No No
    U.S. Senate, Idaho Republican Party Mike Crapo 6.75% No No
    U.S. Senate, Nevada Democratic Party Catherine Cortez Masto 0.50% No No
    U.S. Senate, New Hampshire Democratic Party Maggie Hassan 9.92% No No
    U.S. Senate, North Carolina Republican Party Ted Budd 3.61% No Yes
    U.S. Senate, Ohio Republican Party J.D. Vance 6.57% No Yes
    U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania Democratic Party John Fetterman 3.39% Yes Yes
    U.S. Senate, Wisconsin Republican Party Ron Johnson 1.04% No No

    U.S. House

    Congressional races decided by ten percentage points or fewer, 2022
    Congressional district Winner Margin of victory Open seat?
    Alaska's At-Large Congressional District Democratic Party Mary Peltola 9.89% No
    Arizona's 1st Congressional District Republican Party David Schweikert 0.84% No
    Arizona's 2nd Congressional District Republican Party Eli Crane 7.74% No
    Arizona's 6th Congressional District Republican Party Juan Ciscomani 1.50% Yes
    California's 13th Congressional District Republican Party John Duarte 0.42% Yes
    California's 21st Congressional District Democratic Party Jim Costa 9.61% No
    California's 22nd Congressional District Republican Party David Valadao 3.33% No
    California's 26th Congressional District Democratic Party Julia Brownley 8.67% No
    California's 27th Congressional District Republican Party Mike Garcia 8.38% No
    California's 3rd Congressional District Republican Party Kevin Kiley 6.63% Yes
    California's 34th Congressional District Democratic Party Jimmy Gomez 2.50% No
    California's 41st Congressional District Republican Party Ken Calvert 3.52% No
    California's 45th Congressional District Republican Party Michelle Steel 7.64% No
    California's 47th Congressional District Democratic Party Katie Porter 3.18% No
    California's 49th Congressional District Democratic Party Mike Levin 5.14% No
    Colorado's 3rd Congressional District Republican Party Lauren Boebert 0.17% No
    Colorado's 8th Congressional District Democratic Party Yadira Caraveo 0.69% Yes
    Connecticut's 5th Congressional District Democratic Party Jahana Hayes 0.73% No
    Florida's 13th Congressional District Republican Party Anna Paulina Luna 8.08% Yes
    Florida's 23rd Congressional District Democratic Party Jared Moskowitz 4.75% Yes
    Florida's 9th Congressional District Democratic Party Darren Soto 7.25% No
    Georgia's 2nd Congressional District Democratic Party Sanford Bishop 9.97% No
    Illinois' 13th Congressional District Democratic Party Nikki Budzinski 9.48% Yes
    Illinois' 14th Congressional District Democratic Party Lauren Underwood 7.50% No
    Illinois' 17th Congressional District Democratic Party Eric Sorensen 3.50% Yes
    Illinois' 6th Congressional District Democratic Party Sean Casten 8.72% No
    Indiana's 1st Congressional District Democratic Party Frank Mrvan 5.68% No
    Iowa's 1st Congressional District Republican Party Mariannette Miller-Meeks 6.64% No
    Iowa's 3rd Congressional District Republican Party Zach Nunn 0.69% No
    Maine's 2nd Congressional District Democratic Party Jared Golden 6.00% No
    Maryland's 2nd Congressional District Democratic Party Dutch Ruppersberger 7.07% No
    Maryland's 6th Congressional District Democratic Party David Trone 1.13% No
    Michigan's 10th Congressional District Republican Party John James 0.49% Yes
    Michigan's 7th Congressional District Democratic Party Elissa Slotkin 5.03% No
    Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District Democratic Party Angie Craig 5.10% No
    Montana's 1st Congressional District Republican Party Ryan Zinke 3.31% Yes
    Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District Republican Party Don Bacon 4.40% No
    Nevada's 1st Congressional District Democratic Party Dina Titus 3.83% No
    Nevada's 3rd Congressional District Democratic Party Susie Lee 2.03% No
    Nevada's 4th Congressional District Democratic Party Steven Horsford 2.91% No
    New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District Democratic Party Chris Pappas 7.39% No
    New Jersey's 5th Congressional District Democratic Party Josh Gottheimer 9.29% No
    New Jersey's 7th Congressional District Republican Party Thomas Kean Jr. 4.68% No
    New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District Democratic Party Gabriel Vasquez 0.68% No
    New York's 17th Congressional District Republican Party Michael Lawler 1.17% No
    New York's 18th Congressional District Democratic Party Pat Ryan 0.80% No
    New York's 19th Congressional District Republican Party Marc Molinaro 2.19% Yes
    New York's 20th Congressional District Democratic Party Paul Tonko 9.59% No
    New York's 22nd Congressional District Republican Party Brandon Williams 1.50% Yes
    New York's 25th Congressional District Democratic Party Joseph Morelle 7.28% No
    New York's 3rd Congressional District Republican Party George Santos 8.38% Yes
    New York's 4th Congressional District Republican Party Anthony D'Esposito 3.82% Yes
    North Carolina's 1st Congressional District Democratic Party Don Davis 4.53% Yes
    North Carolina's 11th Congressional District Republican Party Chuck Edwards 9.56% Yes
    North Carolina's 13th Congressional District Democratic Party Wiley Nickel 2.64% Yes
    North Carolina's 6th Congressional District Democratic Party Kathy Manning 8.57% No
    Ohio's 1st Congressional District Democratic Party Greg Landsman 4.92% No
    Ohio's 13th Congressional District Democratic Party Emilia Sykes 5.09% Yes
    Oregon's 4th Congressional District Democratic Party Val Hoyle 8.02% Yes
    Oregon's 5th Congressional District Republican Party Lori Chavez-DeRemer 2.28% Yes
    Oregon's 6th Congressional District Democratic Party Andrea Salinas 2.03% Yes
    Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District Republican Party Scott Perry 8.04% No
    Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District Democratic Party Christopher Deluzio 6.39% Yes
    Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District Democratic Party Susan Wild 1.60% Yes
    Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District Democratic Party Matt Cartwright 2.34% No
    Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional District Democratic Party Seth Magaziner 3.29% Yes
    Texas' 15th Congressional District Republican Party Monica De La Cruz 8.55% Yes
    Texas' 34th Congressional District Democratic Party Vicente Gonzalez 8.46% No
    Virginia's 10th Congressional District Democratic Party Jennifer Wexton 5.88% No
    Virginia's 2nd Congressional District Republican Party Jennifer Kiggans 4.09% No
    Virginia's 7th Congressional District Democratic Party Abigail Spanberger 3.92% No
    Washington's 3rd Congressional District Democratic Party Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 1.51% Yes
    Washington's 8th Congressional District Democratic Party Kim Schrier 4.28% No
    Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District Republican Party Bryan Steil 8.91% Yes
    Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District Republican Party Derrick Van Orden 4.07% Yes

    See also

    Footnotes