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Election results, 2022: State government trifectas
State government trifecta is a term used to describe when one political party holds the governorship and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature.
As a result of the 2022 elections, there were 22 Republican trifectas, 17 Democratic trifectas, and 11 divided governments where neither party had trifecta control.[1]
Trifecta status changed in six states.
- In Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Minnesota, divided governments became Democratic trifectas.
- In Nevada, the Democratic trifecta became a divided government.
- In Arizona, the Republican trifecta became a divided government.
At the time of the 2022 election, there were 23 Republican trifectas, 14 Democratic trifectas, and 13 divided governments.
On this page, you will find:
- The pre-election trifecta status across the country
- A list of vulnerable trifectas
- A list of potential new trifectas
- A comparison of best-case scenarios for each party
- Historical changes since 2010
Post-election state government trifectas
The map below displays the post-election trifecta status for each state.
Pre-election state government trifectas
The map below displays the pre-election trifecta status for each state.
Comparison to recent years
The table below shows the number of trifectas across the country after each even-year election between 2018 and 2022.
| Trifecta status after even-year elections, 2018-2022 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | 2018 | 2020 | 2022 |
| Democratic | 14 | 14 | 17 |
| Republican | 22 | 23 | 22 |
| Divided government | 14 | 13 | 11 |
Pre-election analysis
Vulnerable state government trifectas
| Democratic Party Current status: 14 trifectas Not vulnerable: 7 Somewhat vulnerable: 3 Moderately vulnerable: 3 Highly vulnerable: 1 |
Republican Party Current status: 23 trifectas Not vulnerable: 17 Somewhat vulnerable: 2 Moderately vulnerable: 3 Highly vulnerable: 1 |
|---|
Vulnerable trifectas
Hover your mouse cursor over a state or tap the state for more details.
Potential new trifectas
| Predicted Democratic pickups Moderate possibility: 4 |
Toss-ups 3 |
Predicted Republican pickups Significant possibility: 1 Moderate possibility: 1 |
|---|
Potential new trifectas
Hover your mouse cursor over a state or tap the state for more details. Toss-up states are those where Democratic and Republican trifectas both have a good chance of forming.
Potential best-case scenarios
The following maps represent best-case scenarios for each party based on pre-election projections and forecasting. We define a party's best-case scenario as an outcome in which the party gains all potential new trifectas that are rated towards that party or as a toss-up, as well as retaining all of their current trifectas. Additionally, under a party's best-case scenario, the opposing party loses all of its somewhat and moderately vulnerable trifectas.
| Percentage of Americans living under trifectas following a best-case 2022 election for Democrats | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Democratic trifectas | Republican trifectas | Divided governments | ||||||
| States | 50 | 22 | 17 | 11 | |||||
| Population | 328,771,307[2] | 170,041,421 | 63,724,277 | 95,005,609 | |||||
| Proportion (%) | 100% | 51.7% | 19.4% | 28.9% | |||||
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau | |||||||||
| Percentage of Americans living under trifectas following a best-case 2022 election for Republicans | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Democratic trifectas | Republican trifectas | Divided governments | ||||||
| States | 50 | 7 | 28 | 15 | |||||
| Population | 328,771,307[3] | 75,714,681 | 169,707,029 | 83,349,597 | |||||
| Proportion (%) | 100% | 23.0% | 51.6% | 25.4% | |||||
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau | |||||||||
Historical changes in trifecta status (2010-2021)
2021
The 2021 gubernatorial and state legislative elections led to these results:
- The Democratic Party lost a trifecta in Virginia.
| Partisan control changes as a result of the 2021 elections | ||
|---|---|---|
| State | Pre-election party in power | Post-election party in power |
| Virginia | Democratic | Divided government |
2020
The 2020 gubernatorial and state legislative elections led to these results:
- The Republican Party gained trifectas in Montana and New Hampshire.
| Partisan control changes as a result of the 2020 elections | ||
|---|---|---|
| State | Pre-election party in power | Post-election party in power |
| Montana | Divided government | Republican |
| New Hampshire | Divided government | Republican |
2019
The 2019 gubernatorial and state legislative elections led to these results:
- The Republican Party lost a trifecta in Kentucky.
- The Democratic Party gained a trifecta in Virginia.
| Partisan control changes as a result of the 2019 elections | ||
|---|---|---|
| State | Pre-election party in power | Post-election party in power |
| Kentucky | Republican | Divided government |
| Virginia | Divided government | Democratic |
2018
The state legislative and gubernatorial elections of November 6, 2018, led to these results:
- The Republican Party lost four trifectas (in Kansas, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin), ending up with 22 in six states. They did not gain any additional trifectas.
- The Democratic Party added new state government trifectas in six states: Colorado, Illinois, Maine, New Mexico, New York, and Nevada. They did not lose any trifectas, leaving them with 14.
| Partisan control changes as a result of the 2018 elections | ||
|---|---|---|
| State | Pre-election party in power | Post-election party in power |
| Colorado | Divided government | Democratic |
| Illinois | Divided government | Democratic |
| Kansas | Republican | Divided government |
| Maine | Divided government | Democratic |
| Michigan | Republican | Divided government |
| Nevada | Divided government | Democratic |
| New Hampshire | Republican | Divided government |
| New Mexico | Divided government | Democratic |
| New York | Divided government | Democratic |
| Wisconsin | Republican | Divided government |
2017
Gubernatorial elections were held in New Jersey and Virginia in 2017.
In the state legislatures, elections were held for New Jersey State Senate, New Jersey General Assembly, and Virginia House of Delegates. Virginia did not hold any state Senate elections in 2017.
- The Democratic Party gained state government trifectas in New Jersey and Washington.
- Virginia remained under divided government.
| Partisan control prior to the 2017 elections | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Senate | House | Governor | |
| New Jersey | Democratic | Democratic | Republican | |
| Virginia | Republican | Republican | Democratic | |
| Washington | Republican | Democratic | Democratic | |
| Partisan control after the 2017 elections | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Senate | House | Governor | |
| New Jersey | Democratic | Democratic | Democratic | |
| Virginia | Republican | Republican | Democratic | |
| Washington | Democratic | Democratic | Democratic | |
2016
The state legislative and gubernatorial elections of November 8, 2016, led to these results:
- The Republican Party added new state government trifectas in four states (Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri and New Hampshire). They lost trifectas in Nevada and North Carolina, which left them with 25 trifectas.
- The Democratic Party lost one trifecta (in Vermont), ending up with trifectas in six states. They did not gain any additional trifectas.
- One of the six trifectas held by the Democratic Party, in Delaware, was at stake in a special state senate election 2017 to fill the seat that was vacated by Bethany Hall-Long when she was sworn in as lieutenant governor of Delaware. If that one seat flipped to Republican control, the Delaware Democratic trifecta would have been broken.[4]
- Another of the six trifectas held by the Democratic Party, in Connecticut, was a thin trifecta. In the November 8, 2016, state legislative elections in Connecticut, Republicans added three seats in the state Senate bringing the balance of power to 18-18. Ballotpedia still counted this as a trifecta for the Democrats because in the case of a tie vote in the state senate, the tie-breaking vote went to the Lieutenant Governor of Connecticut...a position held by a Democrat.[5]
| State | Pre-election party in power | Post-election party in power | Change? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | Divided government | Divided government | No |
| Iowa | Divided government | Republican | Yes |
| Indiana | Republican | Republican | No |
| Kentucky | Divided government | Republican | Yes |
| Maine | Divided government | Divided government | No |
| Michigan | Republican | Republican | No |
| Minnesota | Divided government | Divided government | No |
| Missouri | Divided government | Republican | Yes |
| Montana | Divided government | Divided government | No |
| Nevada | Republican | Divided government | Yes |
| New Hampshire | Divided government | Republican | Yes |
| New Mexico | Divided government | Divided government | No |
| New York | Divided government | Divided government | No |
| North Carolina | Republican | Divided government | Yes |
| Vermont | Democrat | Divided government | Yes |
| Washington | Divided government | Divided government | No |
| West Virginia | Divided government | Divided government | No |
| Wisconsin | Republican | Republican | No |
2014
Potential trifecta losses prior to election
Ballotpedia identified 13 trifecta states that could have become divided governments after the November 4, 2014, election:[6]
6 Republican trifectas
7 Democratic trifectas[6]
In the table below, a "Yes" indicates that party control was considered up for grabs, while a "No" indicates races that were not deemed likely to change hands.
| State | Positions that could change hands | Pre-election party in power | Post-election party in power | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | Senate | House | |||
| Arizona | Yes | Yes | No | Republican | Republican |
| Colorado | No | Yes | No | Democratic | Divided government |
| Connecticut | Yes | No | No | Democratic | Democratic |
| Florida | Yes | No | No | Republican | Republican |
| Illinois | Yes | No | No | Democratic | Divided government |
| Kansas | Yes | No | No | Republican | Republican |
| Maryland | Yes | No | No | Democratic | Divided government |
| Massachusetts | Yes | No | No | Democratic | Divided government |
| Michigan | Yes | No | Yes | Republican | Republican |
| Minnesota | No | No | Yes | Democratic | Divided government |
| Pennsylvania | Yes | Yes | Yes | Republican | Divided government |
| West Virginia | No | No | Yes | Democratic | Divided government |
| Wisconsin | Yes | Yes | No | Republican | Republican |
2013
November
Virginia's governorship swung Democratic on November 5, 2013, as Terry McAuliffe (D) defeated Ken Cuccinelli (R). This removed a Republican trifecta in Virginia.
May
In May 2013, Governor of Rhode Island Lincoln Chafee changed his party affiliation from independent to Democratic, giving the Democratic Party a trifecta in Rhode Island.[7]
2012
Heading into the 2012 elections, there were 33 total trifectas in the United States. After the election, there were five new trifectas, bringing the total to 38 trifectas. However, following the election, power-sharing arrangements in two states reduced the total trifectas to 36.
Trifecta complexities
There were three states that complicated the labeling of trifectas in 2012 and 2013. These three unique situations brought the total trifectas from 37 to 36, decreasing the Democratic states by two and adding one GOP state.
- In New York, the Democratic Party, by virtue of the elections, controlled all three levels of government. However, a power-sharing agreement was reached that gave control of the state Senate over to the Republicans; five elected Democrats pledged to caucus with the GOP. This burst the Democratic trifecta, reducing the total trifectas by one state.[8]
- In Virginia, the state Senate was a tied chamber as a result of the 2011 elections. However, the tiebreaking vote was cast by the lieutenant governor, who was a Republican. Thus, control of the governorship and state legislature effectively rested with the Republicans. This gave Republicans an additional trifecta, increasing the total trifectas by one state.[9]
- In Washington, the Democratic Party, by virtue of the elections, controlled all three levels of government. However, a power-sharing agreement was reached that gave control of the state Senate over to the Republicans; two conservative Democrats pledged to elect Republican leadership to the chamber. This burst the Democratic trifecta, reducing the total trifectas by one state.[10]
| Trifectas before and after the 2012 election |
|---|
|
2010
Heading into the 2010 elections, there were 25 total trifectas in the United States. After the election, there were seven new trifectas, bringing the total to 32 trifectas.
| Trifectas before and after the 2010 election |
|---|
|
Log of trifecta calls
Nov. 28, 2022
- 6:20 a.m.: Republican maintained a majority in the New Hampshire House.[11] As a result, the state remained a Republican trifecta.
Nov. 25, 2022
- 9:55 p.m.:
- Eight Democrats and nine Republicans joined to create a bipartisan coalition in the Alaska Senate, switching control of the chamber from Republicans.[12]
- Republicans won a 21-19 majority in the Alaska House but it remained unclear whether certain members would once again join Democrats and nonpartisan incumbents to form a bipartisan coalition.
November 16
- 1:00 p.m.: As a result of several pending recounts, the New Hampshire House of Representatives reverted to uncalled. As a result, the trifecta status of New Hampshire became uncalled.
November 14
- 10:00 p.m.: Democrat Katie Hobbs won the Arizona gubernatorial election, defeating Republican Kari Lake. As a result, Arizona will change from a Republican trifecta to a divided government.
November 10
- 10:36 p.m.: Republican Joe Lombardo won the Nevada gubernatorial election, defeating incumbent Democrat Steve Sisolak. As a result, Nevada will change from a Democratic trifecta to a divided government.
November 9
- 11:29 a.m.: Republicans maintained a majority in the Iowa House, meaning Republicans maintained their trifecta.[13]
- 5:51 a.m.: Democrats gained a majority in the Michigan House of Representatives and won at least 19 seats in the Senate, meaning the state became a Democratic trifecta.[14][15] Previously, it had a divided government.
- 3:15 a.m.: Democrats retained control of the Minnesota House of Representatives and the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party indicated they had gained a majority in the Senate, meaning the state became a Democratic trifecta. Previously, it had a divided government.[16][17]
- 1:03 a.m.:
- Democrats retained control of the Maryland State Legislature, meaning the state became a Democratic trifecta. Previously, it had a divided government.[18]
- Democrats retained control of the Massachusetts State Legislature, meaning the state became a Democratic trifecta. Previously, it had a divided government.[19]
November 8
- 9:30 p.m.: Maura Healey (D) defeated Geoff Diehl (R) and Kevin Reed (L) to win the general election for governor of Massachusetts. Gov. Charlie Baker (R) did not run for re-election.
- 9:00 p.m.: Wes Moore (D) defeated Dan Cox (R) and four other candidates to win the general election for governor of Maryland. Gov. Larry Hogan (R) was not able to run for re-election due to term limits.
See also
- Trifecta vulnerability in the 2022 elections
- State government trifectas
- Historical and potential changes in trifectas
- Election results, 2023: State government trifectas
Footnotes
- ↑ In the Pennsylvania House, Democrats won 102 seats but would enter the legislative session with 99 members due to three vacancies: one due to the death of an incumbent and the others due to resignations to assume higher office. Vacancies are filled by special elections. According to CNalysis, all three vacant districts voted for President Joe Biden (D) by margins of more than 15 percentage points in 2020:
- House District 32: Biden +26
- House District 34: Biden +62
- House District 35: Biden +16
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "State Population Totals: 2010-2020," accessed March 14, 2022
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "State Population Totals: 2010-2020," accessed March 14, 2022
- ↑ Delaware State News, "Balance of Delaware senate shifts after Blevins loss", November 9, 2016
- ↑ Hartford Courant, "Republicans Will Share Driver's Seat In CT", November 11, 2016
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 Note: Illinois and Minnesota were not in this list prior to election night but were added on November 4.
- ↑ Politico, "Lincoln Chafee switches affiliation to Democrat," May 30, 2013
- ↑ National Journal, "GOP, IDC Strike Deal on NY Senate Power Sharing," December 4, 2012
- ↑ NBC 10, "Republicans take control of Va. Senate," January 11, 2012
- ↑ Washington Secretary of State, "GOP-led coalition grabs power in WA Senate," December 10, 2012
- ↑ Twitter, "Nathaniel Rakich," Nov. 28, 2022]
- ↑ Twitter, "Elections Daily," Nov. 25, 2022
- ↑ The New York Times, "Iowa Election Results," Nov. 9, 2022
- ↑ Twitter, "MIRSnews.com," Nov. 9, 2022
- ↑ In an evenly-divided Senate, the party would have a tie-breaking vote in Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist (D).
- ↑ Minnesota Public Radio, "Minnesota Legislature: DFL keeps House, closes in on Senate," Nov. 9, 2022
- ↑ Twitter, "Minnesota DFL Party," Nov. 9, 2022
- ↑ Twitter, "NCSL on November 9, 2022," accessed November 9, 2022
- ↑ Twitter, "NCSL on November 9, 2022," accessed November 9, 2022
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