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Election results, 2024: Pivot Counties in the 2024 presidential election
From Ballotpedia
Last updated: Dec. 16, 2024
Pivot Counties are the 206 counties nationwide Ballotpedia identified as having voted for Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Media and political observers sometimes refer to these counties as swing counties.
Trump won 181 pivot counties in all three of his presidential runs and won 177 of them by a larger margin in 2024 than in 2020. Harris won by a smaller margin than Biden in seven of the nine pivot counties they each won. Overall, pivot counties favored Trump by an additional 4.2 percentage points on average over non-pivot counties in 2024.
HIGHLIGHTS
On this page you'll find:
- An overview of the counties each candidate won in 2024
- A comparison of pivot counties and non-pivot counties in 2024
- A list of all 206 pivot counties and their margins in each presidential election since 2008
- Additional background on pivot counties
Overview
- See also: Presidential election, 2024
Trump won 197 pivot counties across 32 states in 2024 with a larger average margin of victory than any previous pivot county winner since 2008, including his first two candidacies. Harris won nine pivot counties across eight states with a smaller average margin of victory than Biden in 2020, and smaller than all of Obama's and Trump's.
| Pivot Counties Won in 2024 by Candidate | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 overview | ||||||
| Trump | Harris | |||||
| Number | 197 | 9 | ||||
Margin of victory analysis
Of the 181 pivot counties Trump won in 2020 and 2024, his margin of victory increased in 177 and decreased in four. In the nine pivot counties Biden won in 2020 and Harris won in 2024, Harris had a smaller margin of victory than Biden in seven of them. She had a smaller margin of victory in eight of them than Obama in 2012.
This table provides an overview of the 2024 presidential election results in the 206 Pivot Counties. The first section shows an overview of those counties following the 2024 presidential election—including the number of Pivot Counties that Donald Trump (R) and Kamala Harris (D) won as well as both candidates' respective average and median margins of victory in each county. It also shows an overview of those counties following the 2020 presidential election. The second section shows the average and median margins of victory in these 206 counties from 2008 to 2016.
| Overview of counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 following the 2024 presidential election | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 overview | 2020 overview | |||
| Trump | Harris | Trump | Biden | |
| # Won | 197 | 9 | 181 | 25 |
| Average margin of victory | R+18.4 | D+2.3 | R+14.1 | D+3.3 |
| Median margin of victory | R+17.3 | D+1.9 | R+13.2 | D+3.4 |
| Historical overview | ||||
| 2016 (Trump) |
2012 (Obama) |
2008 (Obama) |
||
| Average | R+11.5 | D+8.2 | D+12.3 | |
| Median | R+9.4 | D+7.3 | D+11.9 | |
The table below highlights the counties that the 2024 candidates won by a smaller margin than the 2020 candidate of the same party.
| Closer margins in the 206 Pivot Counties by party, 2024 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | State | 2024 margin | 2020 margin | 2016 margin | ||
| Closer margins for Trump | ||||||
| Manistee County | Michigan | R+13.8 | R+15.1 | R+15.3 | ||
| Tillamook County | Oregon | R+1.6 | R+1.7 | R+5.6 | ||
| Grays Harbor County | Washington | R+4.9 | R+6.6 | R+7.0 | ||
| Mason County | Washington | R+1.4 | R+3.9 | R+5.8 | ||
| Closer margins for Harris | ||||||
| County | State | 2024 margin | 2020 margin | 2012 margin | ||
| Kent County | Delaware | D+2 | D+4.1 | D+4.9 | ||
| Clay County | Minnesota | D+0.5 | D+7.7 | D+7.9 | ||
| Hillsborough County | New Hampshire | D+2.8 | D+4.1 | D+1.1 | ||
| Rensselaer County | New York | D+1 | D+5.6 | D+12.1 | ||
| Saratoga County | New York | D+1.3 | D+5.4 | D+2.4 | ||
| Montgomery County | Ohio | D+0.2 | D+2.2 | D+4.6 | ||
| Kent County | Rhode Island | D+1.9 | D+7.7 | D+17.7 | ||
Map of Pivot Counties
As of December 16, 2024, there were:
- 181 Pivot Counties across 31 states that voted for Trump in 2016, 2020, and 2024
- 16 Pivot Counties across 12 states that voted for Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020, and Trump in 2024
- Nine Pivot Counties across eight states that voted for Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020, and Harris in 2024
Comparison to non-Pivot Counties
On average, Trump performed 4.2 percentage points better in pivot counties than non-pivot counties in 2024. As of 3:00 p.m. EST on Nov. 8, Trump had won 55.5% of the vote in pivot counties to Harris’ 44.5%, for a margin of 11 percentage points. In non-pivot counties, Trump won 51.3% of the vote to Harris’ 48.7%, or 2.6 percentage points. The overall popular vote margin was three percentage points.
| Comparison of Pivot and non-Pivot Counties in 2024 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pivot Counties | ||||||
| Trump votes | Harris votes | Total votes | Trump votes (%) | Harris votes (%) | Average margin of victory | |
| 4,462,115 | 3,580,934 | 8,043,049 | 55.48% | 44.52% | R+11 | |
| Non-Pivot Counties | ||||||
| Trump votes | Harris votes | Total votes | Trump votes (%) | Harris votes (%) | Average margin of victory | |
| 69,079,277 | 65,640,572 | 134,719,849 | 51.28% | 48.72% | R+2.5 | |
| Total popular vote | ||||||
| Trump votes | Harris votes | Total votes | Trump votes (%) | Harris votes (%) | Average margin of victory | |
| 73,541,392 | 69,218,806 | 142,760,198 | 51.51% | 48.49% | R+3 | |
Trump received 6.1% of his votes from pivot counties, and Harris received 5.2% of her votes from pivot counties. Trump and Harris both earned more votes from Suffolk County, New York than any other pivot county, each receiving 9% of their total pivot county votes there.
List of Pivot Counties
The table below lists all 206 Pivot Counties as well as the winner of those counties following the 2024 election. Additional information includes the margins of victory from 2008 to 2020.
| Analysis of counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 following the 2024 presidential election[1] | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | State | Harris votes, 2024 | Trump votes, 2024 | Margin of victory, 2024 | Margin of Victory, 2020 | Trump Margin of Victory, 2016 | Obama Margin of Victory, 2012 | Obama Margin of Victory, 2008 |
| Woodruff County | Arkansas | 33.47% (760) |
66.53% (1511) |
R+33.1 | +27.75 | +8.91 | +4.21 | +7.46 |
| Conejos County | Colorado | 40.77% (1606) |
59.23% (2333) |
R+18.5 | +7.55 | +3.56 | +9.22 | +12.93 |
| Huerfano County | Colorado | 45.49% (1946) |
54.51% (2332) |
R+9 | +2.88 | +6.61 | +8.27 | +11.23 |
| Las Animas County | Colorado | 43.09% (3244) |
56.91% (4284) |
R+13.8 | +9.89 | +15.6 | +2.65 | +7.04 |
| Pueblo County | Colorado | 48.73% (37140) |
51.27% (39073) |
R+2.5 | +1.72 | +0.5 | +13.99 | +14.97 |
| Windham County | Connecticut | 44.1% (25073) |
54.3% (30911) |
R+10.2 | +4.27 | +7.78 | +13.28 | +14.68 |
| Kent County | Delaware | 51.02% (44200) |
48.98% (42432) |
D+2 | +4.07 | +4.87 | +4.94 | +9.81 |
| Jefferson County | Florida | 40.61% (3423) |
59.39% (5006) |
R+18.8 | +6.87 | +5.06 | +1.75 | +3.66 |
| Monroe County | Florida | 40.69% (17807) |
59.31% (25954) |
R+18.6 | +7.92 | +6.82 | +0.44 | +4.9 |
| Pinellas County | Florida | 47.36% (242229) |
52.64% (269272) |
R+5.3 | +0.22 | +1.11 | +5.65 | +8.25 |
| St. Lucie County | Florida | 45.43% (83428) |
54.57% (100208) |
R+9.1 | +1.56 | +2.4 | +7.86 | +12.12 |
| Baker County | Georgia | 39.73% (582) |
60.27% (883) |
R+20.6 | +15.76 | +8.68 | +0.57 | +1.07 |
| Dooly County | Georgia | 46.11% (1919) |
53.89% (2243) |
R+7.8 | +6.04 | +2.05 | +6.98 | +3.53 |
| Peach County | Georgia | 46.93% (6276) |
53.07% (7098) |
R+6.2 | +4.65 | +2.91 | +7.48 | +6.75 |
| Quitman County | Georgia | 42.1% (477) |
57.9% (656) |
R+15.8 | +9.67 | +10.92 | +9.04 | +7.9 |
| Twiggs County | Georgia | 42.65% (1895) |
57.35% (2548) |
R+14.7 | +7.34 | +1.58 | +8.64 | +6.97 |
| Alexander County | Illinois | 25.88% (8081) |
74.12% (23139) |
R+48.2 | +14.21 | +8.3 | +13.65 | +12.62 |
| Carroll County | Illinois | 33.84% (2594) |
66.16% (5071) |
R+32.3 | +29.37 | +26.69 | +1.49 | +4.81 |
| Fulton County | Illinois | 37.83% (5970) |
62.17% (9810) |
R+24.3 | +20.11 | +14.93 | +11.04 | +21.33 |
| Henderson County | Illinois | 30.2% (1025) |
69.8% (2369) |
R+39.6 | +33.1 | +28.43 | +12.25 | +17.67 |
| Henry County | Illinois | 37.49% (9199) |
62.51% (15340) |
R+25 | +21.47 | +20.99 | +3.08 | +7.74 |
| Jo Daviess County | Illinois | 41.36% (5013) |
58.64% (7107) |
R+17.3 | +16.46 | +14.64 | +1.16 | +10.49 |
| Knox County | Illinois | 44.93% (9630) |
55.07% (11804) |
R+10.1 | +5.64 | +2.91 | +17.37 | +19.89 |
| Mercer County | Illinois | 36.12% (2946) |
63.88% (5210) |
R+27.8 | +23.98 | +20.36 | +7.39 | +11.91 |
| Putnam County | Illinois | 38.31% (1253) |
61.69% (2018) |
R+23.4 | +19.32 | +19.92 | +1.82 | +15.64 |
| Warren County | Illinois | 32.43% (2037) |
67.57% (4244) |
R+35.1 | +20.02 | +16.5 | +5.47 | +8.08 |
| Whiteside County | Illinois | 42.5% (10990) |
57.5% (14871) |
R+15 | +8.31 | +6.18 | +17.02 | +17.56 |
| Delaware County | Indiana | 41.96% (18840) |
58.04% (26057) |
R+16.1 | +13.18 | +13.43 | +3.12 | +14.98 |
| LaPorte County | Indiana | 42.7% (19781) |
57.3% (26546) |
R+14.6 | +7.23 | +6.33 | +12.57 | +22.04 |
| Perry County | Indiana | 34.85% (2966) |
65.15% (5544) |
R+30.3 | +24.56 | +18.55 | +11.59 | +22.84 |
| Porter County | Indiana | 44.64% (37126) |
55.36% (46037) |
R+10.7 | +6.08 | +6.59 | +3.9 | +7.2 |
| Vigo County | Indiana | 40.76% (16327) |
59.24% (23731) |
R+18.5 | +14.73 | +14.97 | +0.86 | +15.83 |
| Allamakee County | Iowa | 32.61% (2350) |
67.39% (4857) |
R+34.8 | +29.09 | +24.15 | +4.17 | +14.25 |
| Boone County | Iowa | 39.06% (5894) |
60.94% (9194) |
R+21.9 | +15.59 | +13.69 | +6.64 | +7.63 |
| Bremer County | Iowa | 38.76% (5552) |
61.24% (8772) |
R+22.5 | +16.06 | +13.68 | +2.68 | +9.31 |
| Buchanan County | Iowa | 35.72% (3758) |
64.28% (6763) |
R+28.6 | +20.89 | +15.02 | +13.87 | +18.48 |
| Cedar County | Iowa | 38.95% (4075) |
61.05% (6388) |
R+22.1 | +17.04 | +17.78 | +4.59 | +9.64 |
| Cerro Gordo County | Iowa | 44.11% (9949) |
55.89% (12604) |
R+11.8 | +6.31 | +7.66 | +13.38 | +20.83 |
| Chickasaw County | Iowa | 31.19% (1918) |
68.81% (4232) |
R+37.6 | +31.29 | +22.94 | +11.07 | +20.74 |
| Clarke County | Iowa | 28.72% (1264) |
71.28% (3137) |
R+42.6 | +35.93 | +28.02 | +1.47 | +2.25 |
| Clayton County | Iowa | 32.56% (3015) |
67.44% (6245) |
R+34.9 | +28.83 | +22.78 | +7.03 | +17.17 |
| Clinton County | Iowa | 40.42% (9471) |
59.58% (13960) |
R+19.2 | +10.33 | +5.12 | +22.84 | +23.03 |
| Des Moines County | Iowa | 42.4% (7931) |
57.6% (10776) |
R+15.2 | +8.51 | +6.89 | +18.41 | +23.04 |
| Dubuque County | Iowa | 45.64% (23697) |
54.36% (28223) |
R+8.7 | +2.89 | +1.23 | +14.71 | +20.77 |
| Fayette County | Iowa | 34.52% (3334) |
65.48% (6325) |
R+31 | +22.68 | +19.36 | +11.96 | +16.6 |
| Floyd County | Iowa | 37.02% (2781) |
62.98% (4731) |
R+26 | +19.42 | +14.84 | +14.63 | +21.88 |
| Howard County | Iowa | 33.88% (1618) |
66.12% (3157) |
R+32.2 | +27.33 | +20.49 | +20.95 | +25.78 |
| Jackson County | Iowa | 33.51% (3565) |
66.49% (7074) |
R+33 | +26.14 | +19.27 | +16.89 | +24.39 |
| Jasper County | Iowa | 35.99% (7140) |
64.01% (12701) |
R+28 | +21.54 | +18.13 | +7.07 | +7.5 |
| Jefferson County | Iowa | 46.45% (3774) |
53.55% (4350) |
R+7.1 | +1.38 | +0.47 | +15.97 | +20.23 |
| Jones County | Iowa | 36.62% (3939) |
63.38% (6818) |
R+26.8 | +21.47 | +19.08 | +7.78 | +10.4 |
| Lee County | Iowa | 35.78% (5653) |
64.22% (10148) |
R+28.5 | +19.31 | +16.02 | +15.49 | +16.01 |
| Louisa County | Iowa | 29.24% (1480) |
70.76% (3582) |
R+41.5 | +33.27 | +28.37 | +0.64 | +4.25 |
| Marshall County | Iowa | 42.1% (7134) |
57.9% (9812) |
R+15.8 | +7.69 | +8.31 | +9.36 | +9.35 |
| Mitchell County | Iowa | 34.2% (1941) |
65.8% (3734) |
R+31.6 | +27.89 | +24.04 | +3.37 | +12.31 |
| Muscatine County | Iowa | 42.4% (8199) |
57.6% (11139) |
R+15.2 | +7.02 | +6.26 | +15.88 | +15.64 |
| Poweshiek County | Iowa | 41.34% (4048) |
58.66% (5745) |
R+17.3 | +13.32 | +6.53 | +9.35 | +11.75 |
| Tama County | Iowa | 36.33% (3069) |
63.67% (5379) |
R+27.3 | +19.08 | +20.28 | +7.43 | +12.19 |
| Union County | Iowa | 31.66% (1871) |
68.34% (4038) |
R+36.7 | +31.51 | +27.49 | +3.86 | +3.7 |
| Wapello County | Iowa | 34.06% (4892) |
65.94% (9470) |
R+31.9 | +23.64 | +20.6 | +11.88 | +13.53 |
| Webster County | Iowa | 34.2% (5632) |
65.8% (10838) |
R+31.6 | +24.27 | +21.52 | +5.84 | +8.51 |
| Winneshiek County | Iowa | 45.29% (5319) |
54.71% (6426) |
R+9.4 | +5.12 | +0.79 | +14.74 | +22.65 |
| Worth County | Iowa | 35.72% (1508) |
64.28% (2714) |
R+28.6 | +25.85 | +21.68 | +14.53 | +22.42 |
| Elliott County | Kentucky | 18.56% (532) |
81.44% (2335) |
R+62.9 | +51.22 | +44.13 | +2.5 | +25.17 |
| Androscoggin County | Maine | 46.91% (26983) |
53.09% (30540) |
R+6.2 | +2.81 | +9.38 | +12.78 | +15.22 |
| Aroostook County | Maine | 37.38% (11970) |
62.62% (20051) |
R+25.2 | +19.93 | +17.19 | +7.62 | +9.58 |
| Franklin County | Maine | 46.1% (7143) |
53.9% (8353) |
R+7.8 | +3.94 | +5.47 | +18.41 | +20.29 |
| Kennebec County | Maine | 48.9% (35798) |
51.1% (37410) |
R+2.2 | +0.25 | +3.58 | +13.46 | +14.78 |
| Oxford County | Maine | 43.48% (12440) |
56.52% (16171) |
R+13 | +8.79 | +12.94 | +14.73 | +16.04 |
| Penobscot County | Maine | 45.38% (36705) |
54.62% (44179) |
R+9.2 | +8.34 | +10.91 | +2.93 | +5.12 |
| Somerset County | Maine | 36.51% (9097) |
63.49% (15821) |
R+27 | +23.37 | +22.67 | +1.68 | +5.7 |
| Washington County | Maine | 37.34% (4807) |
62.66% (8065) |
R+25.3 | +19.78 | +18.44 | +1.6 | +1.01 |
| Bay County | Michigan | 42.55% (25725) |
57.45% (34736) |
R+14.9 | +11.57 | +12.55 | +5.56 | +15.31 |
| Calhoun County | Michigan | 41.35% (26078) |
58.65% (36982) |
R+17.3 | +11.08 | +12.46 | +1.6 | +9.36 |
| Eaton County | Michigan | 48.39% (31038) |
51.61% (33097) |
R+3.2 | +0.78 | +4.72 | +3.13 | +8.4 |
| Gogebic County | Michigan | 42.09% (3106) |
57.91% (4274) |
R+15.8 | +12.45 | +14.8 | +8.1 | +17.27 |
| Isabella County | Michigan | 46.19% (14003) |
53.81% (16315) |
R+7.6 | +2.52 | +3.66 | +9.28 | +19.26 |
| Lake County | Michigan | 33.69% (2298) |
66.31% (4523) |
R+32.6 | +26.18 | +22.77 | +5.01 | +12.28 |
| Macomb County | Michigan | 43.02% (214930) |
56.98% (284639) |
R+14 | +8.07 | +11.53 | +3.99 | +8.62 |
| Manistee County | Michigan | 43.12% (6541) |
56.88% (8627) |
R+13.8 | +15.11 | +15.29 | +5.93 | +13.26 |
| Monroe County | Michigan | 36.23% (32613) |
63.77% (57402) |
R+27.5 | +22.61 | +21.97 | +0.98 | +4.35 |
| Saginaw County | Michigan | 48.34% (49498) |
51.66% (52907) |
R+3.3 | +0.29 | +1.13 | +11.89 | +17.34 |
| Shiawassee County | Michigan | 38.28% (15331) |
61.72% (24716) |
R+23.4 | +19.85 | +19.59 | +3.67 | +8.59 |
| Van Buren County | Michigan | 42.32% (17172) |
57.68% (23406) |
R+15.4 | +12.23 | +13.92 | +0.45 | +8.78 |
| Beltrami County | Minnesota | 47.12% (11493) |
52.88% (12897) |
R+5.8 | +3.15 | +9.72 | +9.89 | +10.15 |
| Blue Earth County | Minnesota | 49.38% (17558) |
50.62% (18002) |
R+1.3 | +4.44 | +3.69 | +9.48 | +12.95 |
| Chippewa County | Minnesota | 32.68% (2026) |
67.32% (4174) |
R+34.7 | +30.62 | +28.7 | +1.87 | +5.87 |
| Clay County | Minnesota | 50.24% (16121) |
49.76% (15965) |
D+0.5 | +4.08 | +1.95 | +7.92 | +16.02 |
| Fillmore County | Minnesota | 37.03% (4491) |
62.97% (7638) |
R+26 | +22.65 | +21.7 | +7.34 | +8.26 |
| Freeborn County | Minnesota | 39.2% (6448) |
60.8% (10003) |
R+21.6 | +15.99 | +17.24 | +14.11 | +17.13 |
| Houston County | Minnesota | 41.62% (4668) |
58.38% (6548) |
R+16.8 | +12.95 | +13.87 | +3.16 | +10.69 |
| Itasca County | Minnesota | 39.75% (10467) |
60.25% (15863) |
R+20.5 | +16.77 | +16.35 | +9.83 | +12.92 |
| Kittson County | Minnesota | 37.24% (911) |
62.76% (1535) |
R+25.5 | +20.46 | +22.05 | +6.03 | +18.54 |
| Koochiching County | Minnesota | 36.96% (2464) |
63.04% (4202) |
R+26.1 | +21.27 | +19.85 | +9.45 | +10.1 |
| Lac qui Parle County | Minnesota | 33.57% (1314) |
66.43% (2600) |
R+32.9 | +26.78 | +25.6 | +0.9 | +5.92 |
| Mahnomen County | Minnesota | 45.56% (975) |
54.44% (1165) |
R+8.9 | +1.3 | +2.92 | +18.56 | +25.31 |
| Mower County | Minnesota | 44.66% (8312) |
55.34% (10298) |
R+10.7 | +5.82 | +7.82 | +22.61 | +23.61 |
| Nicollet County | Minnesota | 49.74% (9441) |
50.26% (9540) |
R+0.5 | +3.16 | +3.04 | +7.83 | +10.52 |
| Norman County | Minnesota | 38.56% (1232) |
61.44% (1963) |
R+22.9 | +15.95 | +13.34 | +10.79 | +26.94 |
| Rice County | Minnesota | 48.72% (17353) |
51.28% (18264) |
R+2.6 | +0.17 | +3.06 | +8.27 | +11.5 |
| Swift County | Minnesota | 32.63% (1618) |
67.37% (3340) |
R+34.7 | +29.5 | +25.57 | +9.83 | +13.79 |
| Traverse County | Minnesota | 33.84% (596) |
66.16% (1165) |
R+32.3 | +27.41 | +23.3 | +4.44 | +5.41 |
| Winona County | Minnesota | 47.5% (12929) |
52.5% (14292) |
R+5 | +0.39 | +2.9 | +12.85 | +19.09 |
| Chickasaw County | Mississippi | 43.11% (3088) |
56.89% (4075) |
R+13.8 | +4.48 | +6.06 | +4.52 | +2.13 |
| Panola County | Mississippi | 42.21% (5924) |
57.79% (8112) |
R+15.6 | +4.2 | +0.12 | +8.62 | +6.52 |
| Blaine County | Montana | 46.47% (1303) |
53.53% (1501) |
R+7.1 | +3.85 | +2.46 | +15.32 | +19.24 |
| Hill County | Montana | 40.39% (2561) |
59.61% (3780) |
R+19.2 | +13.59 | +17.18 | +3.5 | +12.21 |
| Roosevelt County | Montana | 44.47% (1631) |
55.53% (2037) |
R+11.1 | +2.14 | +6.49 | +15.58 | +26.27 |
| Thurston County | Nebraska | 45.14% (919) |
54.86% (1117) |
R+9.7 | +2.44 | +5.94 | +13.91 | +6.96 |
| Coos County | New Hampshire | 42.72% (7250) |
57.28% (9722) |
R+14.6 | +5.91 | +8.89 | +17.54 | +18.19 |
| Hillsborough County | New Hampshire | 51.4% (118171) |
48.6% (111736) |
D+2.8 | +7.65 | +0.2 | +1.12 | +3.73 |
| Sullivan County | New Hampshire | 49.66% (12317) |
50.34% (12484) |
R+0.7 | +3.61 | +2.58 | +13.27 | +17.93 |
| Gloucester County | New Jersey | 48.57% (77251) |
51.43% (81788) |
R+2.9 | +1.94 | +0.48 | +10.77 | +12.16 |
| Salem County | New Jersey | 39.77% (11813) |
60.23% (17894) |
R+20.5 | +12.77 | +15 | +1.31 | +3.92 |
| Colfax County | New Mexico | 42.83% (2436) |
57.17% (3252) |
R+14.4 | +10.97 | +8.55 | +2.24 | +10.73 |
| Hidalgo County | New Mexico | 38.21% (705) |
61.79% (1140) |
R+23.6 | +15.05 | +6.73 | +4.96 | +2.92 |
| Valencia County | New Mexico | 41.67% (13602) |
58.33% (19040) |
R+16.7 | +9.61 | +8.6 | +2.47 | +7.72 |
| Broome County | New York | 49.67% (42093) |
50.33% (42644) |
R+0.7 | +3.45 | +2.01 | +5.31 | +8.02 |
| Cayuga County | New York | 43.36% (15278) |
56.64% (19959) |
R+13.3 | +9.22 | +11.64 | +11.4 | +8.48 |
| Cortland County | New York | 46.71% (9842) |
53.29% (11230) |
R+6.6 | +1.94 | +5.58 | +9.11 | +9.96 |
| Essex County | New York | 49.81% (9222) |
50.19% (9294) |
R+0.4 | +5.04 | +1.14 | +18.77 | +13.32 |
| Franklin County | New York | 45.39% (8555) |
54.61% (10291) |
R+9.2 | +2.15 | +5.45 | +26.07 | +22.23 |
| Madison County | New York | 43.05% (13853) |
56.95% (18326) |
R+13.9 | +10.58 | +14.2 | +0.89 | +0.87 |
| Niagara County | New York | 42.26% (41825) |
57.74% (57156) |
R+15.5 | +9.64 | +17.75 | +0.84 | +1 |
| Orange County | New York | 45.27% (74869) |
54.73% (90529) |
R+9.5 | +0.18 | +5.5 | +5.65 | +4.13 |
| Oswego County | New York | 37.95% (20160) |
62.05% (32966) |
R+24.1 | +20.18 | +21.99 | +7.93 | +2.44 |
| Otsego County | New York | 43.4% (10580) |
56.6% (13799) |
R+13.2 | +5.01 | +11.13 | +2.72 | +5.91 |
| Rensselaer County | New York | 50.49% (38525) |
49.51% (37772) |
D+1 | +5.63 | +1.41 | +12.19 | +9.34 |
| St. Lawrence County | New York | 40.98% (17502) |
59.02% (25210) |
D+18.1 | +11.68 | +8.82 | +16.71 | +16.33 |
| Saratoga County | New York | 50.62% (63852) |
49.38% (62278) |
D+1.3 | +5.4 | +3.21 | +2.44 | +3.4 |
| Seneca County | New York | 43.74% (6396) |
56.26% (8226) |
R+12.5 | +9.05 | +11.01 | +9.08 | +2.6 |
| Suffolk County | New York | 44.53% (323473) |
55.47% (402924) |
R+10.9 | +0.03 | +6.84 | +3.69 | +5.99 |
| Sullivan County | New York | 41.56% (13696) |
58.44% (19256) |
R+16.9 | +9.17 | +11.23 | +9.02 | +9.46 |
| Warren County | New York | 47.84% (16585) |
52.16% (18080) |
R+4.3 | +0.16 | +8.47 | +2.32 | +2.64 |
| Washington County | New York | 39.4% (10985) |
60.6% (16897) |
R+21.2 | +15.55 | +18.4 | +1.9 | +0.81 |
| Bladen County | North Carolina | 39.67% (6582) |
60.33% (10009) |
R+20.7 | +13.72 | +9.39 | +1.97 | +2.07 |
| Gates County | North Carolina | 39.03% (2251) |
60.97% (3517) |
R+22 | +13.75 | +9.07 | +4.11 | +5.22 |
| Granville County | North Carolina | 45.17% (14235) |
54.83% (17279) |
R+9.7 | +6.59 | +2.49 | +4.54 | +6.58 |
| Martin County | North Carolina | 44.75% (5328) |
55.25% (6577) |
R+10.5 | +4.95 | +0.43 | +4.65 | +4.64 |
| Richmond County | North Carolina | 39.48% (7749) |
60.52% (11877) |
R+21 | +14.81 | +9.74 | +2.95 | +1.5 |
| Robeson County | North Carolina | 36.16% (16538) |
63.84% (29199) |
R+27.7 | +18.62 | +4.27 | +17.41 | +13.78 |
| Benson County | North Dakota | 40.6% (793) |
59.4% (1160) |
R+18.8 | +13.87 | +4.33 | +17.01 | +33.53 |
| Ransom County | North Dakota | 35.67% (920) |
64.33% (1659) |
R+28.7 | +19.27 | +15.77 | +13.77 | +15.33 |
| Sargent County | North Dakota | 33.3% (661) |
66.7% (1324) |
R+33.4 | +25.51 | +19.73 | +9.77 | +17.49 |
| Steele County | North Dakota | 36.92% (364) |
63.08% (622) |
R+26.2 | +23.9 | +17.72 | +1.92 | +20.35 |
| Ashtabula County | Ohio | 35.8% (15152) |
64.2% (27167) |
R+28.4 | +23.49 | +18.8 | +12.78 | +13.54 |
| Erie County | Ohio | 42.91% (16623) |
57.09% (22114) |
R+14.2 | +11.55 | +9.48 | +12.29 | +13.86 |
| Montgomery County | Ohio | 50.1% (123158) |
49.9% (122645) |
D+0.2 | +2.24 | +0.73 | +4.62 | +6.22 |
| Ottawa County | Ohio | 37.39% (8763) |
62.61% (14672) |
R+25.2 | +23.37 | +19.51 | +4.3 | +6.24 |
| Portage County | Ohio | 42.08% (33943) |
57.92% (46717) |
R+15.8 | +12.44 | +9.87 | +5.52 | +8.99 |
| Sandusky County | Ohio | 34.48% (9987) |
65.52% (18978) |
R+31 | +27.55 | +22.58 | +2.71 | +4.64 |
| Stark County | Ohio | 38.91% (69732) |
61.09% (109461) |
R+22.2 | +18.51 | +17.17 | +0.47 | +5.46 |
| Trumbull County | Ohio | 41.58% (38839) |
58.42% (54575) |
R+16.9 | +10.55 | +6.22 | +23 | +22.43 |
| Wood County | Ohio | 44.76% (29220) |
55.24% (36066) |
R+10.5 | +7.6 | +7.99 | +4.84 | +7.13 |
| Columbia County | Oregon | 42.64% (12428) |
57.36% (16720) |
R+14.7 | +10.29 | +11.46 | +5.16 | +12.02 |
| Tillamook County | Oregon | 49.19% (7603) |
50.81% (7853) |
R+1.6 | +1.71 | +5.58 | +4.86 | +9.89 |
| Erie County | Pennsylvania | 49.27% (65464) |
50.73% (67399) |
R+1.5 | +1.03 | +1.56 | +16.03 | +19.88 |
| Luzerne County | Pennsylvania | 39.89% (59966) |
60.11% (90370) |
R+20.2 | +14.37 | +19.31 | +4.81 | +8.41 |
| Northampton County | Pennsylvania | 48.88% (84291) |
51.12% (88171) |
R+2.3 | +0.72 | +3.78 | +4.71 | +12.3 |
| Kent County | Rhode Island | 50.94% (45981) |
49.06% (44289) |
D+1.9 | +7.64 | +0.67 | +17.74 | +17.4 |
| Barnwell County | South Carolina | 42.14% (4082) |
57.86% (5605) |
R+15.7 | +7.48 | +5.16 | +5.33 | +1.65 |
| Calhoun County | South Carolina | 42.74% (3339) |
57.26% (4474) |
R+14.5 | +4.82 | +2.83 | +4.31 | +3.55 |
| Chester County | South Carolina | 41.3% (6353) |
58.7% (9030) |
R+17.4 | +10.91 | +4.83 | +10.58 | +8.3 |
| Colleton County | South Carolina | 40.81% (7366) |
59.19% (10685) |
R+18.4 | +9.53 | +8.49 | +0.19 | +0.53 |
| McCormick County | South Carolina | 41.35% (2513) |
58.65% (3565) |
R+17.3 | +4.76 | +3.32 | +3.6 | +6.08 |
| Corson County | South Dakota | 43.96% (495) |
56.04% (631) |
R+12.1 | +1.95 | +4.51 | +11.08 | +21.48 |
| Day County | South Dakota | 34.77% (1000) |
65.23% (1876) |
R+30.5 | +27.56 | +23.77 | +6.16 | +12.89 |
| Marshall County | South Dakota | 37.78% (782) |
62.22% (1288) |
R+24.4 | +19.7 | +15.51 | +8.66 | +16.48 |
| Roberts County | South Dakota | 38.29% (1560) |
61.71% (2514) |
R+23.4 | +13.37 | +15.53 | +9.84 | +19.64 |
| Ziebach County | South Dakota | 48.54% (366) |
51.46% (388) |
R+2.9 | +8.5 | +1.96 | +16.43 | +27.16 |
| Hardeman County | Tennessee | 37.84% (3526) |
62.16% (5792) |
R+24.3 | +15.7 | +7.92 | +5.91 | +6.18 |
| Jefferson County | Texas | 45.42% (38662) |
54.58% (46453) |
R+9.2 | +1.58 | +0.48 | +1.61 | +2.25 |
| Essex County | Vermont | 41.56% (1344) |
58.44% (1890) |
R+16.9 | +11.19 | +16.65 | +13.4 | +14.48 |
| Buckingham County | Virginia | 38.17% (2946) |
61.83% (4773) |
R+23.7 | +13.2 | +11.28 | +2.43 | +0.87 |
| Caroline County | Virginia | 45.58% (7764) |
54.42% (9269) |
R+8.8 | +4.17 | +5.02 | +8.24 | +11.97 |
| Essex County | Virginia | 46.04% (2747) |
53.96% (3220) |
R+7.9 | +0.6 | +2.14 | +7.3 | +10.35 |
| Nelson County | Virginia | 46.44% (4255) |
53.56% (4908) |
R+7.1 | +5.21 | +5.59 | +2.72 | +9.15 |
| Westmoreland County | Virginia | 42.73% (4390) |
57.27% (5884) |
R+14.5 | +8.23 | +7.14 | +6.95 | +10.24 |
| Clallam County | Washington | 54.36% (22042) |
45.64% (18504) |
D+8.7 | +3.37 | +2.76 | +0.38 | +3.3 |
| Cowlitz County | Washington | 40.12% (19939) |
59.88% (29765) |
R+19.8 | +17.4 | +13.32 | +4.44 | +11.15 |
| Grays Harbor County | Washington | 47.56% (11824) |
52.44% (13036) |
R+4.9 | +6.56 | +6.99 | +14.11 | +14.56 |
| Mason County | Washington | 49.29% (15023) |
50.71% (15458) |
R+1.4 | +3.86 | +5.81 | +7.09 | +8.66 |
| Pacific County | Washington | 47.9% (6825) |
49.2% (7010) |
R+1.3 | +1.13 | +6.74 | +11.52 | +14.07 |
| Adams County | Wisconsin | 36.41% (4445) |
63.59% (7763) |
R+27.2 | +25.66 | +21.92 | +8.73 | +18.35 |
| Buffalo County | Wisconsin | 34.66% (2765) |
65.34% (5213) |
R+30.7 | +25.26 | +21.82 | +2.93 | +14.6 |
| Columbia County | Wisconsin | 49.12% (17142) |
50.88% (17757) |
R+1.8 | +1.53 | +2.14 | +13.58 | +15.26 |
| Crawford County | Wisconsin | 43.11% (3850) |
56.89% (5081) |
R+13.8 | +7.67 | +5.4 | +19.98 | +27.03 |
| Door County | Wisconsin | 51.13% (10564) |
48.87% (10098) |
D+2.3 | +1.45 | +3.22 | +6.99 | +17.33 |
| Dunn County | Wisconsin | 41.94% (10637) |
58.06% (14727) |
R+16.1 | +13.93 | +11.09 | +4.97 | +14.95 |
| Forest County | Wisconsin | 33.2% (1681) |
66.8% (3382) |
R+33.6 | +30.95 | +26.58 | +5.44 | +15.16 |
| Grant County | Wisconsin | 40.78% (10965) |
59.22% (15923) |
R+18.4 | +12.28 | +9.43 | +13.77 | +23.88 |
| Jackson County | Wisconsin | 40.12% (4157) |
59.88% (6204) |
R+19.8 | +15.07 | +11.74 | +15.01 | +21.84 |
| Juneau County | Wisconsin | 33.76% (4854) |
66.24% (9525) |
R+32.5 | +29.2 | +26.05 | +7.03 | +9 |
| Kenosha County | Wisconsin | 46.84% (41823) |
53.16% (47471) |
R+6.3 | +3.13 | +0.31 | +12.23 | +18.06 |
| Lafayette County | Wisconsin | 39.76% (3469) |
60.24% (5256) |
R+20.5 | +13.72 | +8.99 | +15.37 | +22.32 |
| Lincoln County | Wisconsin | 37.23% (6306) |
62.77% (10631) |
R+25.5 | +22.77 | +20.6 | +0.71 | +12.48 |
| Marquette County | Wisconsin | 35.06% (3252) |
64.94% (6023) |
R+29.9 | +27.36 | +24.09 | +0.27 | +5.28 |
| Pepin County | Wisconsin | 35.25% (1523) |
64.75% (2798) |
R+29.5 | +26.42 | +23.08 | +2.22 | +12.89 |
| Price County | Wisconsin | 34.27% (3005) |
65.73% (5763) |
R+31.5 | +27.64 | +25 | +0.04 | +13.4 |
| Racine County | Wisconsin | 46.87% (49716) |
53.13% (56347) |
R+6.3 | +4.06 | +4.28 | +3.54 | +7.41 |
| Richland County | Wisconsin | 43.33% (3982) |
56.67% (5207) |
R+13.3 | +9.72 | +5.5 | +16.13 | +20.63 |
| Sauk County | Wisconsin | 49.15% (18170) |
50.85% (18795) |
R+1.7 | +1.7 | +0.35 | +18.47 | +23.04 |
| Sawyer County | Wisconsin | 41.73% (4599) |
58.27% (6422) |
R+16.5 | +13.43 | +18.41 | +0.49 | +6.23 |
| Trempealeau County | Wisconsin | 39.15% (6217) |
60.85% (9661) |
R+21.7 | +16.57 | +12.64 | +14.08 | +26.39 |
| Vernon County | Wisconsin | 46.05% (7478) |
53.95% (8760) |
R+7.9 | +4.78 | +4.43 | +14.73 | +22 |
| Winnebago County | Wisconsin | 47.59% (44657) |
52.41% (49179) |
R+4.8 | +3.97 | +7.34 | +3.73 | +11.66 |
| Average | +11.45 | +8.22 | +12.29 | |||||
| Median | +9.41 | +7.32 | +11.94 | |||||
Last updated Nov. 8, 3:00 p.m. ET
Background
 | |
|
Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Trump in 2016 after voting for Obama in 2008 and 2012. The counties span 34 states and cast 7.5 million votes in 2016, or 5.5 percent of all votes that year. In 2024, they cast 8 million votes, representing 5.6% of the total popular vote.
Iowa has the most pivot counties, with 31. Maine has the highest percentage of pivot counties, with 50 percent of the state's total counties being pivot counties. Click here to read the 2016 analysis.
In 2020, Trump retained 181 pivot counties. Trump's margin of victory decreased in 68 and increased in 113. The other 25 pivot counties boomeranged back to Biden. Click here to read the 2020 analysis.
The table below details the number of Pivot Counties in each state. To see a full list of Pivot Counties, click here. For more complete information on a state, click the state name.
| Pivot Counties By State | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Pivot Counties | Total Counties | Percentage of Pivot Counties | Percentage of Population in Pivot Counties |
| Arkansas | 1 | 75 | 1.33% | 0.24% |
| Colorado | 4 | 64 | 6.25% | 0.57% |
| Connecticut | 1 | 8 | 12.50% | 3.28% |
| Delaware | 1 | 3 | 33.33% | 18.26% |
| Florida | 4 | 67 | 5.97% | 6.71% |
| Georgia | 5 | 159 | 3.14% | 0.57% |
| Illinois | 11 | 102 | 10.78% | 4.52% |
| Indiana | 5 | 92 | 5.43% | 7.98% |
| Iowa | 31 | 99 | 31.31% | 26.11% |
| Kentucky | 1 | 120 | 0.83% | 0.18% |
| Maine | 8 | 16 | 50.00% | 47.08% |
| Michigan | 12 | 83 | 14.46% | 18.36% |
| Minnesota | 19 | 87 | 21.84% | 9.97% |
| Mississippi | 2 | 82 | 2.44% | 3.09% |
| Montana | 3 | 56 | 5.36% | 3.37% |
| Nebraska | 1 | 93 | 1.08% | 0.37% |
| New Hampshire | 3 | 10 | 30.00% | 36.20% |
| New Jersey | 2 | 21 | 9.52% | 4.00% |
| New Mexico | 3 | 33 | 9.09% | 4.54% |
| New York | 18 | 62 | 29.03% | 19.37% |
| North Carolina | 6 | 100 | 6.00% | 3.18% |
| North Dakota | 4 | 53 | 7.55% | 2.56% |
| Ohio | 9 | 88 | 10.23% | 13.95% |
| Oregon | 2 | 36 | 5.56% | 1.91% |
| Pennsylvania | 3 | 67 | 4.48% | 7.05% |
| Rhode Island | 1 | 5 | 20.00% | 15.69% |
| South Carolina | 5 | 46 | 10.87% | 2.50% |
| South Dakota | 5 | 66 | 7.58% | 3.31% |
| Tennessee | 1 | 95 | 1.05% | 0.41% |
| Texas | 1 | 254 | 0.39% | 0.97% |
| Vermont | 1 | 14 | 7.14% | 0.99% |
| Virginia | 5 | 133 | 3.76% | 3.95% |
| Washington | 5 | 39 | 12.82% | 4.74% |
| Wisconsin | 23 | 72 | 31.94% | 17.35% |
See also
- Presidential election, 2024
- Election results, 2020: Pivot Counties in the 2020 presidential election
Footnotes
- ↑ This analysis does not include counties in Alaska and certain independent cities due to variations in vote total reporting.
