Electoral competitiveness in Alabama, 1912-2014

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Published in April 2015

The 2014 national election continued the decline in U.S. electoral competitiveness that has occurred since 1972. The decline of electoral competitiveness that has been seen on the national stage, has also been seen in states. For example, Alabama has seen a tremendous increase in the percent of incumbents running for reelection. This increase has been coupled with only a slight drop in the number of incumbents winning reelection.
This page contains electoral competitiveness information at various levels of government in this state up to 2014. For more recent information about state legislative competitiveness nationwide, click here.

The data presented below are part of a larger project on electoral competitiveness, the full report is available in the table to the right. The images below illustrate the changes in the competitiveness of elections in Alabama from 1912 through 2014. The data used to generate these graphs is available in the tables below those images.

Background

Since 1972, electoral competitiveness has tended to decrease across the United States. During that time, people who are members of the same political party have become more likely to live in the same area as one another than in the past. Nationally, the rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness is declining. On the national level, the percentage of state legislative elections won by 5 percent or less was nearly the lowest in the 1972 to 2014 period. In an absolute sense, the incidence of such elections was very low. Only 4.9 percent of U.S. residents in districts with elections saw their election won by 5 percent or less. Similarly, more Americans lived in areas with uncontested elections than ever before in the time period studied: 36.7 percent. State legislative primaries were often found to be won by wide margins or not contested at all. The rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness in elections in Alabama

Table explanation

The columns in the tables below for both state senates and state houses are as follow:

  • Seats: number of seats in the state legislative chamber.
  • Percent Seats Up: percent of seats in the state legislative chamber that are up in a particular year for the November election.
  • Percent Won By Dem: the percent of seats in the state legislature that were won by a Democrat.
  • Percent Unusable: percent of seats for the state legislative chamber that weren’t usable to compute whether a race was marginal or not for this chamber in this year because of missing data. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent with 5% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent with 10% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Unusable Other: percent of seats that have missing data that prevent the computation of whether an incumbent won or lost, whether an incumbent ran or not, or whether a race was uncontested. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of races in a chamber that are uncontested.
  • Percent Incumbent Win: percent of incumbents who ran for a state chamber in a particular year who won.
  • Percent With Incumbent: number of incumbents running for reelection for a state-chamber in one year, divided by the number of seats that are up for election for that state-chamber, multiplied by 100.

The columns for the “Up ballot” tab are as follows:

  • U.S. House Seats: number of U.S. House Seats that a state was apportioned in the year in question.
  • Percent Not Usable: percent of U.S. House Seats in the state and year that aren’t usable to compute marginality or contestation, because of something unusual about the race.
  • Percent With 5% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent With 10% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of U.S. House races that were uncontested in the state and year.
  • U.S. Senate 1 Margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • U.S. Senate 2 Margin: This is only recorded when a second election to the U.S. Senate was held because of a Senator not completing their term. For such elections, this is the difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • President margin: difference between the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the most votes in a state minus the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the second most votes in a state.
  • Governor margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the gubernatorial election in a state with the gubernatorial candidate receiving the second most votes.

State Senate

State Senate competitiveness, Alabama
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1970 35 100 100 0 0 0 48.6 100 100 22.2 100
1974 35 100 100 0 0 0 2.9 88.2 100 32.4 100
1978 35 100 100 0 0 2.9 0 74.3 100 17.1 100
1982 35 100 91.4 0 2.9 2.9 17.1 86.2 100 51.7 100
1983 35 100 80 0 2.9 11.4 2.9 47.1 92.9 82.4 95.5 100
1986 35 100 85.7 0 0 0 0 65.7 100 80 100 100
1990 35 100 80 0 0 5.7 0 42.9 100 65.7 100 100
1994 35 100 65.7 0 11.4 11.4 2.9 47.1 85.7 61.8 81.3 100
1998 35 100 68.6 0 14.3 20 0 22.9 86.2 82.9 100 55.6
2002 35 100 71.4 0 5.7 5.7 0 40 96.7 85.7 100 88.9
2006 35 100 65.7 0 5.7 11.4 0 34.3 96.3 77.1 95 100
2010 35 100 34.3 0 8.6 22.9 0 37.1 68.2 62.9 50 100
2014 35 100 22.9 0 5.7 5.7 0 51.4 96.3 77.1 88.9 100

State House

State House competitiveness, Alabama
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1970 106 100 97.2 0 1.9 5.7 50.9 92.3 90.5 40.4 90.5
1974 105 100 100 0 1 1.9 1 63.5 93.1 27.9 100 0
1978 105 100 96.2 0 1 6.7 0 67.6 97.9 45.7 97.9
1982 105 100 92.4 0 1.9 3.8 1 67.3 96.7 57.7 96.6 100
1983 105 100 83.8 0 8.6 13.3 1 46.2 88.8 85.6 92.2 85.7
1986 105 100 84.8 0 8.6 10.5 1 55.8 94.1 81.7 94.5 91.7
1990 105 100 82.9 0 6.7 11.4 0 54.3 98.7 75.2 98.5 100
1994 105 100 70.5 0 4.8 9.5 1 46.2 87.1 67.3 84.6 100
1998 105 100 65.7 0 5.7 8.6 0 46.7 93.1 82.9 96.4 87.5
2002 105 100 61 0 2.9 6.7 0 49.5 98.7 72.4 98.2 100
2006 105 100 59 0 4.8 7.6 0 57.1 97.5 77.1 96.1 100
2010 105 100 41 0 7.6 14.3 0 58.1 84 77.1 73.3 97.2
2014 105 100 31.4 0 3.8 3.8 0 61.9 95.8 68.6 90.3 100

Up ballot

Up ballot competitiveness, Alabama
Year U.S. House Seats % Not usable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Uncontested U.S. Senate 1 margin U.S. Senate 2 margin President margin Governor margin
1912 56.8
1916 55.2
1920 36.4
1924 43
1928 2.8
1932 71.4
1936 74.1
1938 75
1940 71.2
1942 100 78.8
1944 65.7 63.4
1946 9 0 0 0 55.6 100 77.3
1948 9 11.1 0 0 44.4 68 61.5
1950 9 0 0 0 88.9 100 82.2
1952 9 0 0 0 77.8 29.7
1954 9 0 0 0 77.8 64.9 46.7
1956 9 0 0 0 66.7 100 17.9
1958 9 0 0 0 88.9 77.5
1960 9 0 0 0 77.8 40.5 15.3
1962 8 0 0 0 100 1.7 100
1964 8 12.5 0 14.3 25 38.9
1966 8 0 0 12.5 25 21.3 34.3
1968 8 0 0 0 25 52.1 55.7
1970 8 0 0 0 50 49
1972 7 0 0 0 14.3 30.6 47.9
1974 7 0 0 0 57.1 100 69.8
1976 7 0 0 0 42.9 13.3
1978 7 0 0 14.3 57.1 11.9 100 47.4
1980 7 0 14.3 14.3 57.1 3.2 1.4
1982 7 0 14.3 28.6 42.9 19.2
1984 7 0 14.3 14.3 57.1 26.6 22.5
1986 7 0 0 0 14.3 0.6 12.9
1988 7 0 0 0 42.9 19.5
1990 7 0 14.3 14.3 42.9 21.1 4.2
1992 7 0 14.3 28.6 0 32.4 7.6
1994 7 0 14.3 14.3 14.3 0.9
1996 7 0 28.6 28.6 0 7.1 7.5
1998 7 0 0 0 28.6 26.6 15.7
2000 7 0 0 0 57.1 15.2
2002 7 0 14.3 14.3 42.9 19.1 0.2
2004 7 0 0 0 14.3 35.2 25.8
2006 7 0 0 0 42.9 16
2008 7 14.3 33.3 50 28.6 26.9 21.8
2010 7 0 14.3 14.3 42.9 30.5 15.8
2012 7 0 0 0 14.3 22.4
2014 7 0 0 0 42.9 100 27.4

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