The 2014 national election continued the decline in U.S. electoral competitiveness that has occurred since 1972. The decline of electoral competitiveness that has been seen on the national stage, has also been seen in states. Even California, which had a historically low percentage of uncontested races from 1968 to 2014, saw a decline in the percentage of uncontested U.S. House elections, from 43.5 percent to 18.9 percent.
The data presented below are part of a larger project on electoral competitiveness, the full report is available in the table to the right. The images below illustrate the changes in the competitiveness of elections in California from 1912 through 2014. The data used to generate these graphs is available in the tables below those images.
Since 1972, electoral competitiveness has tended to decrease across the United States. During that time, people who are members of the same political party have become more likely to live in the same area as one another than in the past. Nationally, the rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.
Competitiveness is declining. On the national level, the percentage of state legislative elections won by 5 percent or less was nearly the lowest in the 1972 to 2014 period. In an absolute sense, the incidence of such elections was very low. Only 4.9 percent of U.S. residents in districts with elections saw their election won by 5 percent or less. Similarly, more Americans lived in areas with uncontested elections than ever before in the time period studied: 36.7 percent. State legislative primaries were often found to be won by wide margins or not contested at all. The rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.
The columns in the tables below for both state senates and state houses are as follow:
Seats: number of seats in the state legislative chamber.
Percent Seats Up: percent of seats in the state legislative chamber that are up in a particular year for the November election.
Percent Won By Dem: the percent of seats in the state legislature that were won by a Democrat.
Percent Unusable: percent of seats for the state legislative chamber that weren’t usable to compute whether a race was marginal or not for this chamber in this year because of missing data. This column usually says “0.”
Percent with 5% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 5% or less.
Percent with 10% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 10% or less.
Percent Unusable Other: percent of seats that have missing data that prevent the computation of whether an incumbent won or lost, whether an incumbent ran or not, or whether a race was uncontested. This column usually says “0.”
Percent Uncontested: percent of races in a chamber that are uncontested.
Percent Incumbent Win: percent of incumbents who ran for a state chamber in a particular year who won.
Percent With Incumbent: number of incumbents running for reelection for a state-chamber in one year, divided by the number of seats that are up for election for that state-chamber, multiplied by 100.
The columns for the “Up ballot” tab are as follows:
U.S. House Seats: number of U.S. House Seats that a state was apportioned in the year in question.
Percent Not Usable: percent of U.S. House Seats in the state and year that aren’t usable to compute marginality or contestation, because of something unusual about the race.
Percent With 5% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 5% or less.
Percent With 10% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 10% or less.
Percent Uncontested: percent of U.S. House races that were uncontested in the state and year.
U.S. Senate 1 Margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
U.S. Senate 2 Margin: This is only recorded when a second election to the U.S. Senate was held because of a Senator not completing their term. For such elections, this is the difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
President margin: difference between the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the most votes in a state minus the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the second most votes in a state.
Governor margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the gubernatorial election in a state with the gubernatorial candidate receiving the second most votes.
State Senate
State Senate competitiveness, California
Year
Seats
% Seats up
% Won by Dem
% Unusable
% With 5% margin
% With 10% margin
% Unusuable other
% Uncontested
% Incumbent win
% With incumbent
% of Dem inc winning
% of Repub inc winning
1968
40
50
50
0
0
5
0
5
95
100
100
90
1970
40
50
60
0
10
30
0
5
93.8
80
100
85.7
1972
40
50
40
0
10
10
0
0
100
85
100
100
1974
40
50
85
0
5
10
0
5
91.7
60
100
66.7
1976
40
50
45
0
25
40
0
5
75
60
66.7
83.3
1978
40
50
80
0
10
20
0
5
84.6
65
84.6
1980
40
50
45
0
10
15
0
5
93.3
75
87.5
100
1982
40
50
80
0
10
20
0
10
91.7
60
100
66.7
1984
40
50
45
0
5
15
0
0
94.4
90
100
100
1986
40
50
70
0
10
10
0
10
100
90
100
100
1988
40
50
50
0
5
10
0
5
100
85
100
100
1990
40
50
75
0
10
25
0
10
94.7
95
100
80
1992
40
50
45
0
5
10
0
10
100
55
100
100
1994
40
50
65
0
15
30
0
0
91.7
60
88.9
100
1996
40
50
50
0
15
25
0
0
100
35
100
100
1998
40
50
75
0
5
15
0
10
88.9
45
100
75
2000
40
50
55
0
10
10
0
0
90
50
100
80
2002
40
50
70
0
5
5
0
25
100
55
100
100
2004
40
50
55
0
5
5
0
5
100
50
100
100
2006
40
50
70
0
5
5
0
15
100
40
100
100
2008
40
50
55
0
5
15
0
0
100
40
100
100
2010
40
50
70
0
5
5
0
10
100
40
100
100
2012
40
50
75
0
5
10
0
10
100
45
100
100
2014
40
50
55
0
5
25
0
0
100
30
100
100
State House
State House competitiveness, California
Year
Seats
% Seats up
% Won by Dem
% Unusable
% With 5% margin
% With 10% margin
% Unusuable other
% Uncontested
% Incumbent win
% With incumbent
% of Dem inc winning
% of Repub inc winning
1968
80
100
48.8
0
7.5
12.5
0
2.5
96
93.8
92.3
100
1970
80
100
53.8
0
7.5
15
0
1.3
94.4
90
100
88.6
1972
80
100
63.8
0
8.8
20
0
5
95.5
82.5
100
89.3
1974
80
100
68.8
0
10
21.3
0
2.5
92.9
70
94.3
90.5
1976
80
100
71.3
0
8.8
22.5
0
8.8
96.7
75
100
88.9
1978
80
100
62.5
0
3.8
15
0
8.8
90.2
76.3
87.2
100
1980
80
100
60
0
8.8
15
0
8.8
93.8
81.3
95.1
91.7
1982
80
100
60
0
5
11.3
0
12.5
96.6
72.5
94.1
100
1984
80
100
58.8
0
5
7.5
0
15
100
96.3
100
100
1986
80
100
55
0
5
8.8
0
3.8
100
85
100
100
1988
80
100
58.8
0
5
7.5
0
7.5
96
93.8
100
90.9
1990
80
100
60
0
5
11.3
0
11.3
95.7
86.3
97.6
92.9
1992
80
100
60
0
7.5
12.5
0
7.5
96
62.5
100
88.2
1994
80
100
48.8
0
8.8
13.8
0
5
90.4
65
84.4
100
1996
80
100
53.8
0
11.3
16.3
0
5
97.7
55
100
96
1998
80
100
60
0
3.8
11.3
0
6.3
96.3
67.5
100
91.3
2000
80
100
62.5
0
2.5
10
0
2.5
100
60
100
100
2002
80
100
60
0
3.8
6.3
0
8.8
100
57.5
100
100
2004
80
100
60
0
2.5
6.3
0
5
100
70
100
100
2006
80
100
60
0
2.5
5
0
7.5
100
53.8
100
100
2008
80
100
63.8
0
7.5
15
0
10
100
62.5
100
100
2010
80
100
65
0
1.3
6.3
0
6.3
100
61.3
100
100
2012
80
100
68.8
0
13.8
21.3
0
3.8
93.3
56.3
93.3
93.3
2014
80
100
65
0
7.5
15
0
5
92.5
66.3
89.2
100
Up ballot
Up ballot competitiveness, California
Year
U.S. House Seats
% Not usable
% With 5% margin
% With 10% margin
% Uncontested
U.S. Senate 1 margin
U.S. Senate 2 margin
President margin
Governor margin
1912
0
1916
0.4
1920
46.3
1924
26.7
1928
30.8
1932
21.9
1936
35.7
1938
8.6
1940
16.3
1942
15.5
1944
4.6
13.6
1946
23
0
4.3
30.4
43.5
10.1
85.7
1948
23
4.3
13.6
27.3
47.8
0.5
1950
23
0
17.4
26.1
47.8
18.5
29.7
1952
30
0
13.3
23.3
46.7
100
13.7
1954
30
0
3.3
20
6.7
7.8
13.7
1956
30
0
3.3
16.7
10
8.4
11.2
1958
30
0
16.7
23.3
16.7
14.1
19.6
1960
30
0
10
13.3
6.7
0.5
1962
38
0
10.5
15.8
0
12.9
5.1
1964
38
0
7.9
13.2
2.6
3.1
18.3
1966
38
0
2.6
13.2
0
15.3
1968
38
0
7.9
10.5
2.6
5
3.3
1970
38
0
2.6
5.3
0
9.7
7.9
1972
43
0
2.3
7
2.3
13.9
1974
43
0
9.3
11.6
11.6
25.1
2.9
1976
43
0
4.7
11.6
2.3
3.4
1.8
1978
43
0
2.3
11.6
4.7
21.1
1980
43
0
7
16.3
0
20.7
18.9
1982
45
2.2
2.3
13.6
4.4
7
1.2
1984
45
0
0
4.4
6.7
16.4
1986
45
0
0
0
2.2
1.5
23.7
1988
45
0
2.2
4.4
6.7
9.1
3.6
1990
45
0
6.7
15.6
6.7
3.6
1992
52
0
11.5
19.2
5.8
5.4
17.7
17
1994
52
0
11.5
15.4
3.8
2.1
15.2
1996
52
0
7.7
15.4
0
14.4
1998
52
0
5.8
9.6
17.3
10.5
20.3
2000
52
0
5.8
13.5
7.7
20.8
12.4
2002
53
0
0
1.9
3.8
5.4
2004
53
0
0
1.9
9.4
20.8
10.1
2006
53
0
1.9
5.7
15.1
25.9
17.9
2008
53
0
3.8
9.4
17
24.6
2010
53
0
3.8
7.5
3.8
10.6
13.6
2012
53
17
4.5
15.9
7.5
25
23.7
2014
53
1.9
13.5
17.3
18.9
19.9
Navigation map
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![2.1 [Ballot_StateGraph01_Marg_Stateno5California2015_04_23.png|Marginal Elections]](#.5BBallot_StateGraph01_Marg_Stateno5California2015_04_23.png.7CMarginal_Elections.5D){kind=link}
![2.2 [Ballot_StateGraph02_Uncont_Stateno5California2015_04_23.png|Uncontested Elections]](#.5BBallot_StateGraph02_Uncont_Stateno5California2015_04_23.png.7CUncontested_Elections.5D){kind=link}
![2.3 [Ballot_StateGraph03_Inc_Stateno5California2015_04_23.png|Incumbent Win Rates]](#.5BBallot_StateGraph03_Inc_Stateno5California2015_04_23.png.7CIncumbent_Win_Rates.5D){kind=link}
![2.4 [Ballot_StateGraph04_US_HS_Stateno5California2015_04_23.png|Competitiveness in U.S. House Seats]](#.5BBallot_StateGraph04_US_HS_Stateno5California2015_04_23.png.7CCompetitiveness_in_U.S._House_Seats.5D){kind=link}
![2.5 [Ballot_StateGraph05_UpBallot_Stateno5California2015_04_23.png|Margin of Victory in Up Ballot Elections]](#.5BBallot_StateGraph05_UpBallot_Stateno5California2015_04_23.png.7CMargin_of_Victory_in_Up_Ballot_Elections.5D){kind=link}