Electoral competitiveness in Connecticut, 1912-2014

Competitiveness in state legislatures
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Published in April 2015

The 2014 national election continued the decline in U.S. electoral competitiveness that has occurred since 1972. The decline of electoral competitiveness that has been seen on the national stage, has also been seen in states. For example, the percentage of uncontested Connecticut House and Senate elections has risen, from around 1.1 percent (House) and 0 percent (Senate) in 1986 to 27.8 (House) and 22 percent (Senate).

This page contains electoral competitiveness information at various levels of government in this state up to 2014. For more recent information about state legislative competitiveness nationwide, click here.

The data presented below are part of a larger project on electoral competitiveness, the full report is available in the table to the right. The images below illustrate the changes in the competitiveness of elections in Connecticut from 1912 through 2014. The data used to generate these graphs is available in the tables below those images.

Background

Since 1972, electoral competitiveness has tended to decrease across the United States. During that time, people who are members of the same political party have become more likely to live in the same area as one another than in the past. Nationally, the rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness is declining. On the national level, the percentage of state legislative elections won by 5 percent or less was nearly the lowest in the 1972 to 2014 period. In an absolute sense, the incidence of such elections was very low. Only 4.9 percent of U.S. residents in districts with elections saw their election won by 5 percent or less. Similarly, more Americans lived in areas with uncontested elections than ever before in the time period studied: 36.7 percent. State legislative primaries were often found to be won by wide margins or not contested at all. The rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness in elections in Connecticut

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  [Ballot_StateGraph01_Marg_Stateno7Connecticut2015_04_23.png|Marginal Elections]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph02_Uncont_Stateno7Connecticut2015_04_23.png|Uncontested Elections]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph03_Inc_Stateno7Connecticut2015_04_23.png|Incumbent Win Rates]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph04_US_HS_Stateno7Connecticut2015_04_23.png|Competitiveness in U.S. House Seats]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph05_UpBallot_Stateno7Connecticut2015_04_23.png|Margin of Victory in Up Ballot Elections]

Table explanation

The columns in the tables below for both state senates and state houses are as follow:

• Seats: number of seats in the state legislative chamber.
• Percent Seats Up: percent of seats in the state legislative chamber that are up in a particular year for the November election.
• Percent Won By Dem: the percent of seats in the state legislature that were won by a Democrat.
• Percent Unusable: percent of seats for the state legislative chamber that weren’t usable to compute whether a race was marginal or not for this chamber in this year because of missing data. This column usually says “0.”
• Percent with 5% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 5% or less.
• Percent with 10% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 10% or less.
• Percent Unusable Other: percent of seats that have missing data that prevent the computation of whether an incumbent won or lost, whether an incumbent ran or not, or whether a race was uncontested. This column usually says “0.”
• Percent Uncontested: percent of races in a chamber that are uncontested.
• Percent Incumbent Win: percent of incumbents who ran for a state chamber in a particular year who won.
• Percent With Incumbent: number of incumbents running for reelection for a state-chamber in one year, divided by the number of seats that are up for election for that state-chamber, multiplied by 100.

The columns for the “Up ballot” tab are as follows:

• U.S. House Seats: number of U.S. House Seats that a state was apportioned in the year in question.
• Percent Not Usable: percent of U.S. House Seats in the state and year that aren’t usable to compute marginality or contestation, because of something unusual about the race.
• Percent With 5% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 5% or less.
• Percent With 10% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 10% or less.
• Percent Uncontested: percent of U.S. House races that were uncontested in the state and year.
• U.S. Senate 1 Margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
• U.S. Senate 2 Margin: This is only recorded when a second election to the U.S. Senate was held because of a Senator not completing their term. For such elections, this is the difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
• President margin: difference between the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the most votes in a state minus the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the second most votes in a state.
• Governor margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the gubernatorial election in a state with the gubernatorial candidate receiving the second most votes.

State Senate

State Senate competitiveness, Connecticut
Year	Seats	% Seats up	% Won by Dem	% Unusable	% With 5% margin	% With 10% margin	% Unusuable other	% Uncontested	% Incumbent win	% With incumbent	% of Dem inc winning	% of Repub inc winning
1968	36	100	66.7	0	13.9	27.8	0	0	90.6	88.9	90.9	90
1970	36	100	52.8	0	22.2	38.9	0	0	76.2	58.3	69.2	100
1972	36	100	36.1	0	11.1	30.6	0	0	91.3	63.9	85.7	100
1974	36	100	80.6	0	8.3	27.8	0	0	68	69.4	100	46.7
1976	36	100	61.1	0	25	38.9	0	0	78.1	88.9	74.1	100
1978	36	100	72.2	0	13.9	33.3	0	2.8	78.6	77.8	93.8	58.3
1980	36	100	63.9	0	16.7	30.6	0	0	86.7	83.3	86.4	87.5
1982	36	100	63.9	0	13.9	30.6	0	2.8	96	69.4	94.1	100
1984	36	100	33.3	0	19.4	33.3	0	0	67.7	86.1	50	100
1986	36	100	69.4	0	13.9	25	0	5.6	66.7	91.7	100	47.6
1988	36	100	63.9	0	5.6	19.4	0	2.8	94.1	94.4	91.7	100
1990	36	100	55.6	0	5.6	11.1	0	13.9	89.7	80.6	90	100
1992	36	100	52.8	0	8.3	22.2	0	0	92.3	72.2	91.7	100
1994	36	100	47.2	0	11.1	19.4	0	5.6	96.2	72.2	100	100
1996	36	100	52.8	0	11.1	19.4	0	13.9	94.3	97.2	100	89.5
1998	36	100	52.8	0	5.6	5.6	0	19.4	100	91.7	100	100
2000	36	100	58.3	0	0	5.6	0	30.6	97.1	94.4	100	93.3
2002	36	100	58.3	0	2.8	13.9	0	22.2	94.1	94.4	94.7	93.3
2004	36	100	66.7	0	8.3	16.7	0	36.1	93.8	88.9	100	85.7
2006	36	100	66.7	0	8.3	16.7	0	25	100	86.1	100	100
2008	36	100	66.7	0	2.8	16.7	0	22.2	100	83.3	100	100
2010	36	100	63.9	0	13.9	22.2	0	16.7	96.9	88.9	95.5	100
2012	36	100	61.1	0	16.7	25	0	16.7	100	80.6	100	100
2014	36	100	58.3	0	11.1	16.7	0	22.2	100	77.8	100	100

State House

State House competitiveness, Connecticut
Year	Seats	% Seats up	% Won by Dem	% Unusable	% With 5% margin	% With 10% margin	% Unusuable other	% Uncontested	% Incumbent win	% With incumbent	% of Dem inc winning	% of Repub inc winning
1968	177	100	62.1	0	8.5	23.7	0	1.1	92.1	79.1	92.6	91.1
1970	177	100	55.9	0	11.9	23.2	0	1.7	93	80.2	88.9	100
1972	151	100	38.4	0	10.6	23.8	0	1.3	82.7	72.8	70.8	100
1974	151	100	78.1	0	13.2	28.5	0	0.7	63.7	74.8	97.8	41.2
1976	151	100	61.6	0	12.6	29.8	0	5.3	80.3	77.5	76.3	95.8
1978	151	100	68.2	0	9.9	19.9	0	6	91.7	80.1	96.1	84.1
1980	151	100	55	0	9.9	21.9	0	10.6	88.1	72.2	82.7	100
1982	151	100	58.3	0	13.2	23.2	0	7.9	90.9	80.1	93.7	87.9
1984	151	100	43.7	0	17.2	29.1	0	11.3	83.3	87.4	72.7	98.2
1986	151	100	60.9	0	11.9	21.9	0	16.6	82	84.8	100	69.7
1988	151	100	58.3	0	7.9	13.2	0	15.2	94.6	86.1	92.6	98
1990	151	100	58.9	0	6.6	9.9	0	23.2	97.6	84.1	98.6	96.3
1992	151	100	58.9	0	7.3	23.2	0	4.6	93.1	67.5	93.3	95.1
1994	151	100	59.6	0	9.3	15.9	0	16.6	93.3	79.5	97.1	88.2
1996	151	100	64.2	0	4.6	7.3	0	27.8	97.1	91.4	100	92.2
1998	151	100	62.9	0	2	6.6	0	29.1	97.7	86.8	98.8	95.7
2000	151	100	65.6	0	3.3	8.6	0	39.7	98.5	89.4	100	95.7
2002	151	100	62.3	0	8.6	14.6	0	31.8	95.3	84.1	94	97.7
2004	151	100	66.2	0	4.6	9.9	0	40.4	96.3	88.7	100	90.6
2006	151	100	70.2	0	7.3	11.3	0	39.7	96.3	90.1	98.9	91.5
2008	151	100	75.5	0	3.3	10.6	0	38.4	95.4	86.1	97.9	88.2
2010	151	100	66.2	0	11.9	21.9	0	25.2	90.9	87.4	88	100
2012	151	100	65.6	0	4.6	13.2	0	22.5	97.5	78.8	98.6	95.6
2014	151	100	57.6	0	9.3	21.9	0	27.8	92.2	84.8	89.4	97.7

Up ballot

Up ballot competitiveness, Connecticut
Year	U.S. House Seats	% Not usable	% With 5% margin	% With 10% margin	% Uncontested	U.S. Senate 1 margin	U.S. Senate 2 margin	President margin	Governor margin
1912								4.4
1916								3.3
1920								31
1924								38.2
1928								8.1
1932								1.2
1936								15.7	14.7
1938									0.6
1940						7.5		7.2	1.8
1942									4.9
1944						4.7		5.4	3.2
1946	6	0	0	16.7	0	15.9			14.7
1948	6	0	66.7	66.7	0			1.7	0.3
1950	6	0	50	66.7	0	5.2	0.1		2
1952	6	0	0	33.3	0	2.7	8.4	11.8
1954	6	0	33.3	66.7	0				0.3
1956	6	0	0	16.7	0	12		27.5
1958	6	0	16.7	66.7	0	14.9			25.5
1960	6	0	33.3	66.7	0			7.5
1962	6	0	33.3	50	0	2.5			6.4
1964	6	0	16.7	16.7	0	29.3		35.8
1966	6	0	33.3	33.3	0				11.4
1968	6	0	16.7	33.3	0	8.6		5.5
1970	6	0	33.3	50	0	10.5			7.5
1972	6	0	16.7	33.3	0			18.7
1974	6	0	16.7	33.3	0	30			18.8
1976	6	0	0	0	0	16.7		5.2
1978	6	0	16.7	16.7	0				18.4
1980	6	0	16.7	50	0	13.5		11.1
1982	6	0	33.3	33.3	0	4.5			7.5
1984	6	0	0	50	0			22
1986	6	0	0	16.7	0	30			17
1988	6	0	0	0	0	0.7		5.2
1990	6	0	33.3	33.3	0				7.9
1992	6	0	16.7	16.7	0	21.3		8.3
1994	6	0	16.7	33.3	0	36.7			5.1
1996	6	0	16.7	50	0			20.7
1998	6	0	16.7	16.7	0	33.6			27.9
2000	6	0	16.7	33.3	0	29.8		18.5
2002	5	0	0	20	0				12.2
2004	5	0	20	40	0	34.8		10.5
2006	5	0	40	40	0	61			28.1
2008	5	0	20	20	0			22.6
2010	5	0	0	40	0	12.1			0.6
2012	5	0	20	20	0	12		17.5
2014	5	0	0	40	0				2.6

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