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Electoral competitiveness in Florida, 1912-2014

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Competitiveness in
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Published in April 2015

The 2014 national election continued the decline in U.S. electoral competitiveness that has occurred since 1972. The decline of electoral competitiveness that has been seen on the national stage, has also been seen in states. For example, the percentage of Florida Senate incumbents running for reelection increased from 66.7 percent in 1968 to 100 percent in 2014. At the same time, the incumbency win rate increase from 93.8 percent to 100 percent.
This page contains electoral competitiveness information at various levels of government in this state up to 2014. For more recent information about state legislative competitiveness nationwide, click here.

The data presented below are part of a larger project on electoral competitiveness, the full report is available in the table to the right. The images below illustrate the changes in the competitiveness of elections in Florida from 1912 through 2014. The data used to generate these graphs is available in the tables below those images.

Background

Since 1972, electoral competitiveness has tended to decrease across the United States. During that time, people who are members of the same political party have become more likely to live in the same area as one another than in the past. Nationally, the rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness is declining. On the national level, the percentage of state legislative elections won by 5 percent or less was nearly the lowest in the 1972 to 2014 period. In an absolute sense, the incidence of such elections was very low. Only 4.9 percent of U.S. residents in districts with elections saw their election won by 5 percent or less. Similarly, more Americans lived in areas with uncontested elections than ever before in the time period studied: 36.7 percent. State legislative primaries were often found to be won by wide margins or not contested at all. The rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness in elections in Florida

Table explanation

The columns in the tables below for both state senates and state houses are as follow:

  • Seats: number of seats in the state legislative chamber.
  • Percent Seats Up: percent of seats in the state legislative chamber that are up in a particular year for the November election.
  • Percent Won By Dem: the percent of seats in the state legislature that were won by a Democrat.
  • Percent Unusable: percent of seats for the state legislative chamber that weren’t usable to compute whether a race was marginal or not for this chamber in this year because of missing data. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent with 5% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent with 10% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Unusable Other: percent of seats that have missing data that prevent the computation of whether an incumbent won or lost, whether an incumbent ran or not, or whether a race was uncontested. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of races in a chamber that are uncontested.
  • Percent Incumbent Win: percent of incumbents who ran for a state chamber in a particular year who won.
  • Percent With Incumbent: number of incumbents running for reelection for a state-chamber in one year, divided by the number of seats that are up for election for that state-chamber, multiplied by 100.

The columns for the “Up ballot” tab are as follows:

  • U.S. House Seats: number of U.S. House Seats that a state was apportioned in the year in question.
  • Percent Not Usable: percent of U.S. House Seats in the state and year that aren’t usable to compute marginality or contestation, because of something unusual about the race.
  • Percent With 5% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent With 10% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of U.S. House races that were uncontested in the state and year.
  • U.S. Senate 1 Margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • U.S. Senate 2 Margin: This is only recorded when a second election to the U.S. Senate was held because of a Senator not completing their term. For such elections, this is the difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • President margin: difference between the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the most votes in a state minus the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the second most votes in a state.
  • Governor margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the gubernatorial election in a state with the gubernatorial candidate receiving the second most votes.

State Senate

State Senate competitiveness, Florida
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1968 48 100 66.7 0 6.3 14.6 0 14.6 93.8 66.7 95.7 88.9
1970 48 18.8 77.8 0 11.1 22.2 0 44.4 0
1972 40 100 62.5 0 5 10 0 35 91.7 60 86.7 100
1974 40 55 72.7 0 9.1 22.7 0 50 78.6 63.6 100 50
1976 40 50 70 0 15 20 0 60 93.3 75 100 75
1978 40 57.5 73.9 0 0 13 0 34.8 100 43.5 100 100
1980 40 52.5 61.9 0 9.5 14.3 0 38.1 92.3 61.9 90 100
1982 40 100 80 0 12.5 17.5 0 47.5 89.3 70 100 70
1984 40 50 70 0 5 5 0 60 100 90 100 100
1986 40 55 59.1 0 27.3 27.3 0 36.4 85.7 63.6 83.3 100
1988 40 55 54.5 0 4.5 13.6 0 63.6 100 63.6 100 100
1990 40 52.5 61.9 0 28.6 42.9 0 28.6 92.3 61.9 100 83.3
1992 40 100 52.5 0 5 17.5 0 37.5 81.8 55 81.8 81.8
1994 40 55 45.5 0 9.1 13.6 0 36.4 88.9 81.8 81.8 100
1996 40 52.5 38.1 0 9.5 9.5 0 47.6 100 71.4 100 100
1998 40 50 45 0 10 10 0 65 100 70 100 100
2000 40 50 30 0 10 15 0 50 100 30 100 100
2002 40 100 35 0 2.5 7.5 0 65 95.5 55 87.5 100
2004 40 55 40.9 0 0 0 0 63.6 100 90.9 100 100
2006 40 50 30 0 10 15 0 65 100 60 100 100
2008 40 52.5 38.1 0 4.8 4.8 0 42.9 100 61.9 100 100
2010 40 57.5 26.1 0 0 8.7 0 47.8 100 34.8 100 100
2012 40 100 35 0 0 5 0 32.5 95.8 60 100 94.1
2014 40 50 20 0 5 5 0 60 100 100 100 100

State House

State House competitiveness, Florida
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1968 119 100 64.7 0 3.4 8.4 0.8 44.9 94.5 61.9 94.9 92.9
1970 119 100 68.1 0 9.2 18.5 0.8 55.9 96.5 72 100 88.5
1972 120 100 64.2 0 10 15.8 0 34.2 97.2 60 95.7 100
1974 120 100 71.7 0 8.3 18.3 0.8 52.1 92.7 68.9 100 81.3
1976 120 100 77.5 0 6.7 15.8 0 53.3 97.8 75 98.6 94.1
1978 120 100 74.2 0 11.7 15.8 0 45.8 95 66.7 95.1 94.7
1980 120 100 67.5 0 6.7 13.3 0 63.3 96.1 85.8 94.7 100
1982 120 100 70 0 5.8 15 0 37.5 94.9 65 100 85.2
1984 120 100 64.2 0 6.7 12.5 0 54.2 94.5 91.7 92.5 100
1986 120 100 62.5 0 5 10 0 45 98.9 75.8 98.3 100
1988 120 100 60.8 0 5.8 11.7 0 56.7 97 82.5 98.4 94.7
1990 120 100 61.7 0 6.7 13.3 0 49.2 94.2 85.8 96.9 89.7
1992 120 100 58.3 0 14.2 18.3 0 42.5 93.4 63.3 92 96.2
1994 120 100 52.5 0 10 19.2 0 53.3 93.8 80.8 90 100
1996 120 100 49.2 0 7.5 12.5 0 50.8 98.1 88.3 96.1 100
1998 120 100 39.2 0 6.7 11.7 0 62.5 96.7 76.7 92.5 100
2000 120 100 35 0 10 15.8 0 41.7 98.1 44.2 100 97.4
2002 120 100 32.5 0 2.5 7.5 0 43.3 97.8 75.8 94.3 100
2004 120 100 30 0 3.3 4.2 0 65 100 80.8 100 100
2006 120 100 35 0 6.7 14.2 0 57.5 97.6 70 100 96.8
2008 120 100 36.7 0 9.2 15 0 50.8 100 63.3 100 100
2010 120 100 32.5 0 2.5 5 0 40.8 93.8 67.5 85.3 100
2012 120 100 36.7 0 9.2 20 0 50 94.9 65 100 93.2
2014 120 98.3 32.2 0 4.2 11 0 51.7 93.9 83.1 83.8 100

Up ballot

Up ballot competitiveness, Florida
Year U.S. House Seats % Not usable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Uncontested U.S. Senate 1 margin U.S. Senate 2 margin President margin Governor margin
1912 76.1
1916 58.6
1920 33.7
1924 33.9
1928 17.2
1932 49.8
1936 52.2 61.8
1940 100 48 100
1944 42.6 40.6 57.9
1946 6 0 0 0 50 57.3
1948 6 0 0 0 33.3 18.4 66.7
1950 6 0 0 0 66.7 52.6
1952 8 0 12.5 12.5 50 100 10 49.7
1954 8 0 12.5 12.5 75 60.9
1956 8 0 12.5 25 25 100 14.5 47.4
1958 8 0 0 0 62.5 42.5
1960 8 0 0 0 37.5 3 19.7
1962 12 0 8.3 8.3 16.7 40.1
1964 12 0 0 0 50 27.9 2.3 15.3
1966 12 0 0 0 58.3 10.3
1968 12 0 0 25 16.7 11.8 13.4
1970 12 0 0 16.7 25 7.7 13.7
1972 15 0 0 0 20 44.2
1974 15 0 6.7 13.3 40 2.9 22.4
1976 15 0 0 6.7 33.3 26 5.4
1978 15 0 6.7 6.7 33.3 11.2
1980 15 0 0 6.7 6.7 3.3 18.1
1982 19 0 5.3 10.5 15.8 23.5 29.4
1984 19 0 0 0 42.1 30.7
1986 19 0 0 0 47.4 9.5 9.1
1988 19 0 5.3 15.8 42.1 0.8 22.5
1990 19 0 10.5 10.5 31.6 13
1992 23 0 8.7 17.4 13 30.8 2.4
1994 23 0 4.3 8.7 47.8 41 1.5
1996 23 0 0 4.3 13 6.3
1998 23 0 0 0 78.3 24.9 10.5
2000 23 0 8.7 8.7 43.5 5 0
2002 25 0 4 8 36 13
2004 25 4 0 0 40 1.1 5
2006 25 0 12 16 28 22.6 7.3
2008 25 0 4 12 12 2.8
2010 25 0 0 8 20 41.5 1.2
2012 27 0 7.4 18.5 22.2 13.3 0.9
2014 27 0 7.4 7.4 25.9 1.1

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