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Electoral competitiveness in Georgia, 1912-2014

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Published in April 2015

The 2014 national election continued the decline in U.S. electoral competitiveness that has occurred since 1972. The decline of electoral competitiveness that has been seen on the national stage, has also been seen in states. In Georgia, meanwhile, the percentage of uncontested Senate and House elections was just under 70 percent in 1968 for both chambers and 73.2 percent and 81.7 percent in 2014, respectively.

This page contains electoral competitiveness information at various levels of government in this state up to 2014. For more recent information about state legislative competitiveness nationwide, click here.

The data presented below are part of a larger project on electoral competitiveness, the full report is available in the table to the right. The images below illustrate the changes in the competitiveness of elections in Georgia from 1912 through 2014. The data used to generate these graphs is available in the tables below those images.

Background

Since 1972, electoral competitiveness has tended to decrease across the United States. During that time, people who are members of the same political party have become more likely to live in the same area as one another than in the past. Nationally, the rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness is declining. On the national level, the percentage of state legislative elections won by 5 percent or less was nearly the lowest in the 1972 to 2014 period. In an absolute sense, the incidence of such elections was very low. Only 4.9 percent of U.S. residents in districts with elections saw their election won by 5 percent or less. Similarly, more Americans lived in areas with uncontested elections than ever before in the time period studied: 36.7 percent. State legislative primaries were often found to be won by wide margins or not contested at all. The rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness in elections in Georgia

Table explanation

The columns in the tables below for both state senates and state houses are as follow:

  • Seats: number of seats in the state legislative chamber.
  • Percent Seats Up: percent of seats in the state legislative chamber that are up in a particular year for the November election.
  • Percent Won By Dem: the percent of seats in the state legislature that were won by a Democrat.
  • Percent Unusable: percent of seats for the state legislative chamber that weren’t usable to compute whether a race was marginal or not for this chamber in this year because of missing data. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent with 5% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent with 10% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Unusable Other: percent of seats that have missing data that prevent the computation of whether an incumbent won or lost, whether an incumbent ran or not, or whether a race was uncontested. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of races in a chamber that are uncontested.
  • Percent Incumbent Win: percent of incumbents who ran for a state chamber in a particular year who won.
  • Percent With Incumbent: number of incumbents running for reelection for a state-chamber in one year, divided by the number of seats that are up for election for that state-chamber, multiplied by 100.

The columns for the “Up ballot” tab are as follows:

  • U.S. House Seats: number of U.S. House Seats that a state was apportioned in the year in question.
  • Percent Not Usable: percent of U.S. House Seats in the state and year that aren’t usable to compute marginality or contestation, because of something unusual about the race.
  • Percent With 5% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent With 10% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of U.S. House races that were uncontested in the state and year.
  • U.S. Senate 1 Margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • U.S. Senate 2 Margin: This is only recorded when a second election to the U.S. Senate was held because of a Senator not completing their term. For such elections, this is the difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • President margin: difference between the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the most votes in a state minus the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the second most votes in a state.
  • Governor margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the gubernatorial election in a state with the gubernatorial candidate receiving the second most votes.


State Senate

State Senate competitiveness, Georgia
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1968 56 100 85.7 0 3.6 7.1 0 67.9 93 76.8 100 71.4
1970 56 100 89.3 0 1.8 8.9 0 76.8 95.7 82.1 97.6 75
1972 56 100 85.7 0 1.8 7.1 0 69.6 97.7 78.6 97.6 100
1974 56 100 92.9 0 5.4 8.9 0 75 92.5 71.4 100 57.1
1976 56 100 92.9 0 0 1.8 0 82.1 97.9 83.9 97.7 100
1978 56 100 92.9 0 0 1.8 0 85.7 100 91.1 100 100
1980 56 100 91.1 0 1.8 1.8 0 76.8 100 83.9 100 100
1982 56 100 87.5 0 0 1.8 0 69.6 100 80.4 100 100
1984 56 100 83.9 0 5.4 5.4 0 78.6 98 87.5 97.6 100
1986 56 100 82.1 0 3.6 7.1 0 66.1 100 85.7 100 100
1988 56 100 80.4 0 0 5.4 0 66.1 97.9 83.9 97.5 100
1990 56 100 80.4 0 3.6 8.9 0 64.3 97.5 71.4 96.8 100
1992 56 100 73.2 0 10.7 17.9 0 51.8 91.4 62.5 89.3 100
1994 56 100 62.5 0 3.6 5.4 0 78.6 95.8 85.7 93.9 100
1996 56 100 60.7 0 3.6 5.4 0 50 97.8 82.1 100 93.3
1998 56 100 60.7 0 3.6 7.1 0 51.8 100 75 100 100
2000 56 100 57.1 0 8.9 12.5 0 53.6 96 89.3 93.8 100
2002 56 100 53.6 0 14.3 21.4 0 50 86.4 78.6 82.1 93.8
2004 56 100 39.3 0 5.4 8.9 0 41.1 89.7 69.6 94.1 86.4
2006 56 100 39.3 0 1.8 3.6 0 60.7 100 87.5 100 100
2008 56 100 39.3 0 0 0 0 67.9 100 89.3 100 100
2010 56 100 37.5 0 0 0 0 62.5 100 69.6 100 100
2012 56 100 32.1 0 0 1.8 0 78.6 98 87.5 94.4 100
2014 56 100 32.1 0 0 0 0 73.2 100 76.8 100 100

State House

State House competitiveness, Georgia
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1968 195 100 85.6 0 1.5 4.6 0.5 69.6 94 77.3 94.6 94.7
1970 195 100 88.7 0 3.1 6.2 0 75.9 96.6 74.9 99.2 81
1972 180 100 83.9 0 2.2 6.1 0 78.3 95.8 79.4 96.1 93.8
1974 180 100 86.7 0 3.3 6.1 0 77.8 95 66.1 98 80
1976 180 100 86.7 0 3.9 7.8 0 75 95.7 78.3 97.5 85.7
1978 180 100 88.3 0 2.2 3.3 0 82.8 98.1 85.6 100 85.7
1980 180 100 87.2 0 1.7 3.9 0 80 97.4 85.6 97.8 94.4
1982 180 100 86.7 0 1.7 2.8 0 74.4 99.2 72.8 100 91.7
1984 180 100 85.6 0 5 7.2 0 77.8 98.1 89.4 97.9 100
1986 180 100 85 0 2.8 6.7 0 74.4 99.4 87.8 99.3 100
1988 180 100 80 0 4.4 8.9 0 73.9 95.6 87.8 95.5 96
1990 180 100 80.6 0 2.8 7.2 0 70.6 93.7 79.4 98.2 75.9
1992 180 100 71.1 0 3.3 8.9 0 68.9 91.8 67.8 91.2 95
1994 180 100 63.9 0 4.4 8.9 0 63.3 94.4 89.4 92.2 100
1996 180 100 58.9 0 5 10 0 57.2 94.7 84.4 94.9 94.4
1998 180 100 56.7 0 2.8 7.2 0 59.4 98.7 85.6 100 97.1
2000 180 100 57.8 0 6.7 7.8 0 67.2 98.1 88.9 98.9 97
2002 180 100 58.9 0 5 11.1 0 59.4 91.9 75 92.9 90
2004 180 100 46.7 0 3.9 10 0 59.4 95.7 78.3 93.6 100
2006 180 100 41.1 0 2.2 5.6 0 71.7 100 86.1 100 100
2008 180 100 41.7 0 3.3 6.1 0 78.3 96.9 90 96.9 96.9
2010 180 100 39.4 0 0.6 3.3 0 67.8 97.9 79.4 96.8 98.8
2012 180 100 33.3 0 2.2 3.9 0 76.7 97.8 75.6 95.7 98.9
2014 180 100 33.3 0 0.6 3.3 0 81.7 100 88.9 100 100

Up ballot

Up ballot competitiveness, Georgia
Year U.S. House Seats % Not usable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Uncontested U.S. Senate 1 margin U.S. Senate 2 margin President margin Governor margin
1912 61.8
1916 72.1
1920 44.6
1924 60.5
1928 13.2
1932 84.4
1936 74.7 100
1938 100
1940 70.2 100
1942 100 100
1944 100 63.5
1946 10 0 0 0 100 100
1948 10 0 0 0 100 100 48.8 100
1950 10 0 0 0 100 100 100
1952 10 0 0 0 100 39.3
1954 10 0 0 0 90 100 100
1956 10 0 0 0 90 100 33.2
1958 10 0 0 0 100 100
1960 10 0 0 0 90 100 25.1
1962 10 0 0 0 80 100 100
1964 10 0 0 20 50 8.3
1966 10 0 10 10 20 100 0.3
1968 10 0 0 0 70 55 17
1970 10 0 0 0 50 18.7
1972 10 0 0 10 60 7.9 50.6
1974 10 0 20 20 20 43.5 38.2
1976 10 0 10 10 30 33.9
1978 10 0 0 10 50 66.3 61.3
1980 10 0 0 0 20 1.7 15.3
1982 10 0 0 0 30 25.6
1984 10 0 0 10 40 59.9 20.4
1986 10 0 0 10 40 1.8 41
1988 10 0 0 0 20 20.2
1990 10 0 20 20 0 100 8.6
1992 11 0 9.1 27.3 0 1.6 0.7
1994 11 0 9.1 9.1 0 2.1
1996 11 0 9.1 27.3 9.1 1.4 1.3
1998 11 0 0 0 27.3 7.4 8.7
2000 11 0 0 9.1 9.1 21.1 12
2002 13 0 15.4 15.4 23.1 7 5.3
2004 13 0 7.7 7.7 46.2 18.3 16.7
2006 13 0 15.4 15.4 7.7 20.5
2008 13 0 0 0 15.4 3 5.3
2010 13 0 7.7 15.4 23.1 19.8 10.5
2012 14 0 0 7.1 21.4 7.9
2014 14 0 0 7.1 50 7.8 8

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