Electoral competitiveness in Illinois, 1912-2014

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Published in April 2015

The 2014 national election continued the decline in U.S. electoral competitiveness that has occurred since 1972. The decline of electoral competitiveness that has been seen on the national stage, has also been seen in states. For example, the percentage of elections won by less than 10 percent or less in the Illinois State Senate decreased from 50 percent in 1968 to 10.5 percent in 2014.

This page contains electoral competitiveness information at various levels of government in this state up to 2014. For more recent information about state legislative competitiveness nationwide, click here.

The data presented below are part of a larger project on electoral competitiveness, the full report is available in the table to the right. The images below illustrate the changes in the competitiveness of elections in Illinois from 1912 through 2014. The data used to generate these graphs is available in the tables below those images.

Background

Since 1972, electoral competitiveness has tended to decrease across the United States. During that time, people who are members of the same political party have become more likely to live in the same area as one another than in the past. Nationally, the rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness is declining. On the national level, the percentage of state legislative elections won by 5 percent or less was nearly the lowest in the 1972 to 2014 period. In an absolute sense, the incidence of such elections was very low. Only 4.9 percent of U.S. residents in districts with elections saw their election won by 5 percent or less. Similarly, more Americans lived in areas with uncontested elections than ever before in the time period studied: 36.7 percent. State legislative primaries were often found to be won by wide margins or not contested at all. The rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness in elections in Illinois

Table explanation

The columns in the tables below for both state senates and state houses are as follow:

  • Seats: number of seats in the state legislative chamber.
  • Percent Seats Up: percent of seats in the state legislative chamber that are up in a particular year for the November election.
  • Percent Won By Dem: the percent of seats in the state legislature that were won by a Democrat.
  • Percent Unusable: percent of seats for the state legislative chamber that weren’t usable to compute whether a race was marginal or not for this chamber in this year because of missing data. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent with 5% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent with 10% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Unusable Other: percent of seats that have missing data that prevent the computation of whether an incumbent won or lost, whether an incumbent ran or not, or whether a race was uncontested. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of races in a chamber that are uncontested.
  • Percent Incumbent Win: percent of incumbents who ran for a state chamber in a particular year who won.
  • Percent With Incumbent: number of incumbents running for reelection for a state-chamber in one year, divided by the number of seats that are up for election for that state-chamber, multiplied by 100.

The columns for the “Up ballot” tab are as follows:

  • U.S. House Seats: number of U.S. House Seats that a state was apportioned in the year in question.
  • Percent Not Usable: percent of U.S. House Seats in the state and year that aren’t usable to compute marginality or contestation, because of something unusual about the race.
  • Percent With 5% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent With 10% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of U.S. House races that were uncontested in the state and year.
  • U.S. Senate 1 Margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • U.S. Senate 2 Margin: This is only recorded when a second election to the U.S. Senate was held because of a Senator not completing their term. For such elections, this is the difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • President margin: difference between the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the most votes in a state minus the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the second most votes in a state.
  • Governor margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the gubernatorial election in a state with the gubernatorial candidate receiving the second most votes.


State Senate

State Senate competitiveness, Illinois
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1968 58 3.4 50 0 0 50 0 0 0
1970 58 100 50 0 13.8 25.9 0 1.7 85.1 81 100 78.8
1972 59 100 49.2 0 8.5 25.4 0 1.7 94.7 64.4 95.2 94.1
1974 59 33.9 65 0 25 40 0 5 75 80 100 55.6
1976 59 67.8 55 0 10 17.5 0 7.5 92.3 65 92.9 91.7
1978 59 67.8 50 0 7.5 10 0 15 96.6 72.5 93.3 100
1980 59 33.9 50 0 10 20 0 10 92.3 65 88.9 100
1982 59 100 55.9 0 5.1 11.9 0 20.3 90.9 74.6 95.8 89.5
1984 59 35.6 47.6 0 4.8 14.3 0 23.8 94.1 81 90 100
1986 59 67.8 57.5 0 2.5 10 0 27.5 93.3 75 94.1 92.3
1988 59 66.1 53.8 0 2.6 7.7 0 23.1 100 100 100 100
1990 59 33.9 50 0 5 5 0 35 100 90 100 100
1992 59 100 45.8 0 6.8 11.9 0 30.5 94.4 61 94.1 94.7
1994 59 33.9 45 0 5 10 0 35 94.1 85 87.5 100
1996 59 67.8 50 0 10 12.5 0 45 96.9 80 100 94.1
1998 59 69.5 43.9 0 0 7.3 0 51.2 100 82.9 100 100
2000 59 32.2 47.4 0 10.5 10.5 0 47.4 100 89.5 100 100
2002 59 100 54.2 0 5.1 8.5 0 52.5 90.7 72.9 91.3 90
2004 59 39 56.5 0 4.3 8.7 0 52.2 94.1 73.9 90.9 100
2006 59 66.1 66.7 0 10.3 15.4 0 35.9 100 69.2 100 100
2008 59 67.8 60 0 2.5 5 0 52.5 100 87.5 100 100
2010 59 35.6 57.1 0 9.5 19 0 28.6 88.9 85.7 83.3 100
2012 59 100 67.8 0 3.4 11.9 0 50.8 97.5 67.8 100 92.3
2014 59 32.2 57.9 0 5.3 10.5 0 63.2 94.4 94.7 91.7 100

State House

State House competitiveness, Illinois
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1968 177 100 46.3 0 7.3 11.3 0 78 96.6 81.9 96.8 97.6
1970 177 100 49.2 0 2.8 7.9 0 84.2 97.9 81.9 100 96.2
1972 177 100 49.2 0 5.6 11.9 0 66.7 95.3 71.8 100 90.3
1974 177 100 55.4 0 6.2 13.6 0 63.3 93.8 82.5 100 87.5
1976 177 100 52.5 0 4.5 8.5 0 66.7 96.4 78.5 94.7 98.4
1978 177 100 49.7 0 6.8 8.5 0 66.7 93.9 83.1 94.5 95.8
1980 177 100 48 0 4.5 7.3 0 67.8 93.2 83.6 92.2 97.1
1982 118 100 59.3 0 6.8 15.3 0 22.9 80.2 89.8 91.2 70.2
1984 118 100 56.8 0 2.5 10.2 0 33.1 95.9 82.2 93.5 100
1986 118 100 56.8 0 5.1 9.3 0 20.3 99 83.1 98.3 100
1988 118 100 56.8 0 4.2 8.5 0 22.9 98.2 94.1 98.4 98
1990 118 100 60.2 0 2.5 5.1 0 42.4 95.2 88.1 98.3 91.1
1992 118 100 56.8 0 9.3 16.9 0 16.1 89.6 65.3 90.2 88.5
1994 118 100 45.8 0 7.6 11 0 29.7 88.2 86.4 78.2 100
1996 118 100 50.8 0 7.6 14.4 0 27.1 96.1 87.3 100 92.9
1998 118 100 52.5 0 2.5 8.5 0 50 100 83.9 100 100
2000 118 100 52.5 0 3.4 5.1 0 50.8 100 90.7 100 100
2002 118 100 55.9 0 1.7 8.5 0 37.3 96.7 77.1 98 95.1
2004 118 100 55.1 0 2.5 6.8 0 50.8 97.1 89 96.6 97.8
2006 118 100 55.9 0 4.2 7.6 0 50.8 99 89 100 97.8
2008 118 100 59.3 0 5.9 10.2 0 51.7 97.2 90.7 100 95.7
2010 118 100 54.2 0 4.2 9.3 0 42.4 94.9 83.9 91.1 100
2012 118 100 60.2 0 2.5 5.1 0 58.5 95.5 74.6 100 90
2014 118 100 60.2 0 5.1 9.3 0 59.3 100 81.4 100 100

Up ballot

Up ballot competitiveness, Illinois
Year U.S. House Seats % Not usable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Uncontested U.S. Senate 1 margin U.S. Senate 2 margin President margin Governor margin
1912 2.3
1916 9.6
1920 45.3
1924 43.2
1928 14.8
1932 13.6
1936 18.5 10.3
1940 0.5 2.4 6.2
1942 6.8
1944 5.6 3.5 1.8
1946 26 0 15.4 19.2 0
1948 26 0 26.9 50 0 10.5 0.8 14.6
1950 26 0 7.7 19.2 0 8.2
1952 25 0 12 16 0 9.9 5.2
1954 25 0 8 28 4 7.1
1956 25 0 4 24 0 8.4 19.3 0.9
1958 25 0 12 20 0
1960 25 0 16 28 0 9.5 0.2 11.2
1962 24 0 8.3 20.8 0 5.7
1964 24 0 4.2 20.8 0 18.9 3.8
1966 24 0 12.5 12.5 0 11.2
1968 24 0 0 12.5 0 6.4 3.2 2.7
1970 24 0 0 4.2 0 15.2
1972 24 0 4.2 12.5 8.3 25 18.6 1.7
1974 24 0 8.3 33.3 4.2 25.1
1976 24 0 4.2 8.3 0 2 30.2
1978 24 0 4.2 8.3 4.2 8 19.1
1980 24 0 4.2 4.2 0 13.7 8.7
1982 22 4.5 14.3 23.8 0 0.1
1984 22 0 9.1 9.1 4.5 1.9 12.9
1986 22 0 13.6 18.2 4.5 31.7 13.7
1988 22 0 4.5 13.6 4.5 2.1
1990 22 0 0 9.1 22.7 30.1 2.6
1992 20 0 0 0 0 10.6 17.2
1994 20 0 0 20 5 29.9
1996 20 0 15 15 10 15.9 19.2
1998 20 0 5 5 20 3 3.6
2000 20 5 5.3 15.8 10 12.4
2002 19 0 0 5.3 10.5 22.7 7.3
2004 19 0 5.3 5.3 5.3 44.2 10.4
2006 19 0 5.3 15.8 5.3 11.8
2008 19 0 0 5.3 5.3 40.8 25.5
2010 19 0 10.5 15.8 0 1.7 0.9
2012 18 0 11.1 27.8 0 17.2
2014 18 0 5.6 11.1 0 11.3 4.1

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