Electoral competitiveness in Iowa, 1912-2014

Competitiveness in state legislatures
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Published in April 2015

The 2014 national election continued the decline in U.S. electoral competitiveness that has occurred since 1972. The decline of electoral competitiveness that has been seen on the national stage, has also been seen in states. For example, the percentage of uncontested Iowa State Senate elections rose from 6.1 percent in 1968 to 48 percent in 2014.

This page contains electoral competitiveness information at various levels of government in this state up to 2014. For more recent information about state legislative competitiveness nationwide, click here.

The data presented below are part of a larger project on electoral competitiveness, the full report is available in the table to the right. The images below illustrate the changes in the competitiveness of elections in Iowa from 1912 through 2014. The data used to generate these graphs is available in the tables below those images.

Background

Since 1972, electoral competitiveness has tended to decrease across the United States. During that time, people who are members of the same political party have become more likely to live in the same area as one another than in the past. Nationally, the rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness is declining. On the national level, the percentage of state legislative elections won by 5 percent or less was nearly the lowest in the 1972 to 2014 period. In an absolute sense, the incidence of such elections was very low. Only 4.9 percent of U.S. residents in districts with elections saw their election won by 5 percent or less. Similarly, more Americans lived in areas with uncontested elections than ever before in the time period studied: 36.7 percent. State legislative primaries were often found to be won by wide margins or not contested at all. The rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness in elections in Iowa

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  [Ballot_StateGraph01_Marg_Stateno15Iowa2015_04_23.png|Marginal Elections]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph02_Uncont_Stateno15Iowa2015_04_23.png|Uncontested Elections]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph03_Inc_Stateno15Iowa2015_04_23.png|Incumbent Win Rates]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph04_US_HS_Stateno15Iowa2015_04_23.png|Competitiveness in U.S. House Seats]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph05_UpBallot_Stateno15Iowa2015_04_23.png|Margin of Victory in Up Ballot Elections]

Table explanation

The columns in the tables below for both state senates and state houses are as follow:

• Seats: number of seats in the state legislative chamber.
• Percent Seats Up: percent of seats in the state legislative chamber that are up in a particular year for the November election.
• Percent Won By Dem: the percent of seats in the state legislature that were won by a Democrat.
• Percent Unusable: percent of seats for the state legislative chamber that weren’t usable to compute whether a race was marginal or not for this chamber in this year because of missing data. This column usually says “0.”
• Percent with 5% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 5% or less.
• Percent with 10% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 10% or less.
• Percent Unusable Other: percent of seats that have missing data that prevent the computation of whether an incumbent won or lost, whether an incumbent ran or not, or whether a race was uncontested. This column usually says “0.”
• Percent Uncontested: percent of races in a chamber that are uncontested.
• Percent Incumbent Win: percent of incumbents who ran for a state chamber in a particular year who won.
• Percent With Incumbent: number of incumbents running for reelection for a state-chamber in one year, divided by the number of seats that are up for election for that state-chamber, multiplied by 100.

The columns for the “Up ballot” tab are as follows:

• U.S. House Seats: number of U.S. House Seats that a state was apportioned in the year in question.
• Percent Not Usable: percent of U.S. House Seats in the state and year that aren’t usable to compute marginality or contestation, because of something unusual about the race.
• Percent With 5% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 5% or less.
• Percent With 10% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 10% or less.
• Percent Uncontested: percent of U.S. House races that were uncontested in the state and year.
• U.S. Senate 1 Margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
• U.S. Senate 2 Margin: This is only recorded when a second election to the U.S. Senate was held because of a Senator not completing their term. For such elections, this is the difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
• President margin: difference between the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the most votes in a state minus the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the second most votes in a state.
• Governor margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the gubernatorial election in a state with the gubernatorial candidate receiving the second most votes.

State Senate

State Senate competitiveness, Iowa
Year	Seats	% Seats up	% Won by Dem	% Unusable	% With 5% margin	% With 10% margin	% Unusuable other	% Uncontested	% Incumbent win	% With incumbent	% of Dem inc winning	% of Repub inc winning
1968	61	54.1	24.2	0	30.3	42.4	0	6.1	43.5	69.7	27.8	100
1970	50	54	25.9	0	14.8	40.7	0	3.7	82.4	63	66.7	90.9
1972	50	100	44	0	16	34	0	0	67.9	56	100	52.6
1974	50	50	56	0	20	32	0	8	94.1	68	100	88.9
1976	50	50	56	0	20	36	0	12	83.3	72	100	70
1978	50	50	32	0	8	24	0	8	76.9	52	57.1	100
1980	50	50	56	0	16	36	0	12	100	64	100	100
1982	50	58	55.2	0	10.3	20.7	0	17.2	85	69	100	75
1984	50	50	60	0	20	32	0	32	90	80	90.9	88.9
1986	50	50	60	0	8	12	0	40	100	64	100	100
1988	50	50	60	0	12	32	0	12	89.5	76	100	75
1990	50	50	56	0	12	24	0	32	95	80	92.3	100
1992	50	64	53.1	0	15.6	28.1	0	21.9	84.2	59.4	80	88.9
1994	50	50	52	0	16	16	0	48	100	48	100	100
1996	50	50	32	0	20	32	0	8	70.6	68	50	100
1998	50	50	44	0	12	20	0	36	94.4	72	100	90
2000	50	50	32	0	4	20	0	12	95	80	100	92.9
2002	50	70	45.7	0	11.4	20	0	25.7	78.9	54.3	60	100
2004	50	50	44	0	16	40	0	28	83.3	72	100	75
2006	50	50	76	0	20	24	0	28	94.4	72	100	80
2008	50	50	52	0	16	32	0	20	88.9	72	90	87.5
2010	50	50	52	0	16	32	0	28	76.2	84	70.6	100
2012	50	52	50	0	15.4	46.2	0	15.4	86.7	57.7	100	71.4
2014	50	50	56	0	12	20	0	48	94.1	68	91.7	100

State House

State House competitiveness, Iowa
Year	Seats	% Seats up	% Won by Dem	% Unusable	% With 5% margin	% With 10% margin	% Unusuable other	% Uncontested	% Incumbent win	% With incumbent	% of Dem inc winning	% of Repub inc winning
1968	124	100	30.6	0	18.5	32.3	0	8.1	89.2	66.9	78.9	92.2
1970	100	100	38	0	20	40	0	9	78	82	91.7	73.7
1972	100	100	44	0	24	36	0	3	81.4	43	75	85.2
1974	100	100	61	0	13	22	0	7	86.6	82	100	74.4
1976	100	100	60	0	11	25	0	10	97.6	85	100	96.8
1978	100	100	44	0	21	33	0	23	85.5	69	77.5	100
1980	100	100	42	0	13	27	0	14	90.8	87	84.6	95.8
1982	100	100	60	0	15	26	0	17	85.1	67	90	81.1
1984	100	100	60	0	8	17	0	27	96.7	91	100	94.3
1986	100	100	58	0	10	19	0	35	95.1	81	95.6	94.4
1988	100	100	61	0	9	19	0	21	96.7	91	100	92.1
1990	100	100	55	0	8	20	0	32	95.2	83	92.2	100
1992	100	100	48	0	13	25	0	27	84.9	73	80	90.9
1994	100	100	36	0	7	15	0	41	95.5	66	90.3	100
1996	100	100	46	0	6	17	0	24	90.5	84	96.7	87
1998	100	100	44	0	9	20	0	39	96.6	88	95.3	97.8
2000	100	100	44	0	3	15	0	34	92.8	83	94.3	91.7
2002	100	100	46	0	11	22	0	36	95.2	62	96.6	93.9
2004	100	100	49	0	4	15	0	38	95.5	88	97.5	93.8
2006	100	100	54	1	7.1	18.2	1	40.4	93.3	90.9	97.9	90.5
2008	100	100	56	0	10	17	0	19	94.3	87	95.9	92.1
2010	100	100	40	0	16	29	0	31	84.1	82	70.5	100
2012	100	100	47	0	17	25	0	27	92.3	78	97.1	88.6
2014	100	100	43	0	4	11	0	46	95.2	84	89.7	100

Up ballot

Up ballot competitiveness, Iowa
Year	U.S. House Seats	% Not usable	% With 5% margin	% With 10% margin	% Uncontested	U.S. Senate 1 margin	U.S. Senate 2 margin	President margin	Governor margin
1912								6.8
1916								12.4
1920								47.2
1924								32.8
1928								24.4
1932								18.1
1936								12.1	0.2
1938									7.1
1940								4.4	5.7
1942						16.3			25.9
1944						2.9		4.5	12.4
1946	8	0	0	0	0				15.3
1948	8	0	25	50	0	16.3		2.8	12.1
1950	8	0	0	0	0	10.2			18.7
1952	8	0	0	0	12.5			28.4	4.1
1954	8	0	0	0	0	4.7			3
1956	8	0	50	50	0	7.8		18.5	2.4
1958	8	0	50	87.5	0				8.3
1960	8	0	0	37.5	0	3.8		13.5	4.3
1962	7	0	0	14.3	0	6.8			5.1
1964	7	0	42.9	85.7	0			24	37
1966	7	0	28.6	42.9	0	23.4			11.2
1968	7	0	0	42.9	0	0.6		13	8
1970	7	0	14.3	28.6	0				4.4
1972	6	0	0	33.3	0	11.1		17.5	18.3
1974	6	0	50	83.3	0	4.8			17.1
1976	6	0	33.3	33.3	0			1
1978	6	0	0	16.7	0	3.2			17.5
1980	6	0	16.7	50	0	8		14.1
1982	6	0	0	0	0				6.3
1984	6	0	16.7	16.7	0	11.9		7.4
1986	6	0	16.7	33.3	0	32.6			3.9
1988	6	0	0	0	0			10.3
1990	6	0	16.7	16.7	50	9.1			21.9
1992	5	0	40	40	20	43.8		7.5
1994	5	0	0	20	0				15.5
1996	5	0	20	80	0	5.2		11.5
1998	5	0	0	0	20	38.3			5.9
2000	5	0	0	0	0			0.3
2002	5	0	0	40	0	10.6			8.4
2004	5	0	0	0	0	43.1		0.7
2006	5	0	20	40	0				9.8
2008	5	0	0	0	0	25.4		9.7
2010	5	0	40	60	0	31.8			10
2012	4	0	0	50	0			5.9
2014	4	0	25	50	0	8.7			22.6

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