Electoral competitiveness in Kentucky, 1912-2014

Competitiveness in state legislatures
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Published in April 2015

The 2014 national election continued the decline in U.S. electoral competitiveness that has occurred since 1972. The decline of electoral competitiveness that has been seen on the national stage, has also been seen in states. The Kentucky House of Representatives and Kentucky State Senate incumbent win rate never dipped below 60 percent between 1968 and 2014.

This page contains electoral competitiveness information at various levels of government in this state up to 2014. For more recent information about state legislative competitiveness nationwide, click here.

The data presented below are part of a larger project on electoral competitiveness, the full report is available in the table to the right. The images below illustrate the changes in the competitiveness of elections in Kentucky from 1912 through 2014. The data used to generate these graphs is available in the tables below those images.

Background

Since 1972, electoral competitiveness has tended to decrease across the United States. During that time, people who are members of the same political party have become more likely to live in the same area as one another than in the past. Nationally, the rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness is declining. On the national level, the percentage of state legislative elections won by 5 percent or less was nearly the lowest in the 1972 to 2014 period. In an absolute sense, the incidence of such elections was very low. Only 4.9 percent of U.S. residents in districts with elections saw their election won by 5 percent or less. Similarly, more Americans lived in areas with uncontested elections than ever before in the time period studied: 36.7 percent. State legislative primaries were often found to be won by wide margins or not contested at all. The rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness in elections in Kentucky

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  [Ballot_StateGraph01_Marg_Stateno17Kentucky2015_04_23.png|Marginal Elections]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph02_Uncont_Stateno17Kentucky2015_04_23.png|Uncontested Elections]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph03_Inc_Stateno17Kentucky2015_04_23.png|Incumbent Win Rates]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph04_US_HS_Stateno17Kentucky2015_04_23.png|Competitiveness in U.S. House Seats]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph05_UpBallot_Stateno17Kentucky2015_04_23.png|Margin of Victory in Up Ballot Elections]

Table explanation

The columns in the tables below for both state senates and state houses are as follow:

• Seats: number of seats in the state legislative chamber.
• Percent Seats Up: percent of seats in the state legislative chamber that are up in a particular year for the November election.
• Percent Won By Dem: the percent of seats in the state legislature that were won by a Democrat.
• Percent Unusable: percent of seats for the state legislative chamber that weren’t usable to compute whether a race was marginal or not for this chamber in this year because of missing data. This column usually says “0.”
• Percent with 5% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 5% or less.
• Percent with 10% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 10% or less.
• Percent Unusable Other: percent of seats that have missing data that prevent the computation of whether an incumbent won or lost, whether an incumbent ran or not, or whether a race was uncontested. This column usually says “0.”
• Percent Uncontested: percent of races in a chamber that are uncontested.
• Percent Incumbent Win: percent of incumbents who ran for a state chamber in a particular year who won.
• Percent With Incumbent: number of incumbents running for reelection for a state-chamber in one year, divided by the number of seats that are up for election for that state-chamber, multiplied by 100.

The columns for the “Up ballot” tab are as follows:

• U.S. House Seats: number of U.S. House Seats that a state was apportioned in the year in question.
• Percent Not Usable: percent of U.S. House Seats in the state and year that aren’t usable to compute marginality or contestation, because of something unusual about the race.
• Percent With 5% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 5% or less.
• Percent With 10% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 10% or less.
• Percent Uncontested: percent of U.S. House races that were uncontested in the state and year.
• U.S. Senate 1 Margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
• U.S. Senate 2 Margin: This is only recorded when a second election to the U.S. Senate was held because of a Senator not completing their term. For such elections, this is the difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
• President margin: difference between the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the most votes in a state minus the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the second most votes in a state.
• Governor margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the gubernatorial election in a state with the gubernatorial candidate receiving the second most votes.

State Senate

State Senate competitiveness, Kentucky
Year	Seats	% Seats up	% Won by Dem	% Unusable	% With 5% margin	% With 10% margin	% Unusuable other	% Uncontested	% Incumbent win	% With incumbent	% of Dem inc winning	% of Repub inc winning
1969	38	50	73.7	0	31.6	31.6	0	47.4	69.2	68.4	77.8	50
1971	38	50	73.7	0	15.8	42.1	0	36.8	77.8	47.4	100	50
1973	38	50	78.9	0	0	15.8	0	63.2	100	31.6	100	100
1975	38	50	78.9	0	0	5.3	0	47.4	90.9	57.9	100	75
1977	38	50	73.7	0	0	0	0	57.9	100	63.2	100	100
1979	38	50	78.9	0	10.5	15.8	0	47.4	93.3	78.9	91.7	100
1981	38	55.3	71.4	0	0	14.3	0	42.9	100	66.7	100	100
1983	38	50	73.7	0	15.8	21.1	0	47.4	93.3	78.9	91.7	100
1986	38	52.6	80	0	5	10	0	60	91.7	60	100	66.7
1988	38	50	78.9	0	5.3	5.3	0	68.4	93.3	78.9	100	75
1990	38	50	63.2	0	10.5	15.8	0	31.6	63.6	57.9	62.5	66.7
1992	38	50	68.4	0	10.5	21.1	0	52.6	100	68.4	100	100
1994	38	50	47.4	0	10.5	31.6	0	26.3	78.6	73.7	66.7	100
1996	38	50	57.9	0	10.5	26.3	0	15.8	91.7	63.2	88.9	100
1998	38	50	47.4	0	10.5	36.8	0	15.8	100	57.9	100	100
2000	38	50	57.9	0	0	15.8	0	26.3	100	78.9	100	100
2002	38	50	31.6	0	5.3	15.8	0	36.8	100	84.2	100	100
2004	38	50	52.6	0	5.3	15.8	0	47.4	100	63.2	100	100
2006	38	50	31.6	0	5.3	10.5	0	57.9	100	94.7	100	100
2008	38	50	52.6	0	5.3	10.5	0	42.1	100	73.7	100	100
2010	38	50	26.3	0	21.1	36.8	0	21.1	84.6	68.4	75	87.5
2012	38	50	47.4	0	5.3	10.5	0	52.6	92.9	73.7	88.9	100
2014	38	50	15.8	0	0	5.3	0	52.6	92.9	73.7	75	100

State House

State House competitiveness, Kentucky
Year	Seats	% Seats up	% Won by Dem	% Unusable	% With 5% margin	% With 10% margin	% Unusuable other	% Uncontested	% Incumbent win	% With incumbent	% of Dem inc winning	% of Repub inc winning
1969	100	100	72	0	17	26	0	32	79	62	94.4	57.7
1971	100	100	74	4	7.3	14.6	0	42	95.3	64	95.9	93.3
1973	100	100	80	0	3	8	0	49	93.9	66	100	77.8
1975	100	100	78	0	3	7	0	47	97.1	69	96.5	100
1977	100	100	78	0	4	10	0	56	98.6	74	98.4	100
1979	100	100	75	0	5	9	0	60	96.4	83	95.4	100
1981	100	100	76	0	5	9	0	55	94.1	85	97	84.2
1984	100	100	74	0	8	11	0	52	97.5	79	96.8	100
1986	100	100	73	0	4	8	0	61	97.5	80	98.3	95
1988	100	100	72	0	3	9	0	71	97.8	89	98.5	95.8
1990	100	100	68	0	8	12	0	46	93.5	92	92.5	96
1992	100	100	72	0	7	9	0	63	98.8	82	100	96
1994	100	100	63	0	5	10	0	68	96.1	76	94.3	100
1996	100	100	64	0	7	16	0	45	96.1	76	96.1	96
1998	100	100	66	1	7.1	9.1	0	50	96.4	84	98.2	93.1
2000	100	100	66	0	3	11	0	68	96.7	90	96.7	96.6
2002	100	100	65	0	3	7	0	67	100	87	100	100
2004	100	100	57	0	7	20	0	48	94.6	92	91.4	100
2006	100	100	61	0	7	17	0	55	92.1	89	100	82.9
2008	100	100	65	0	2	8	0	72	100	87	100	100
2010	100	100	58	0	6	13	0	47	94.5	91	91.7	100
2012	100	100	55	0	4	13	0	54	96.6	88	96.3	97.1
2014	100	100	54	0	4	14	0	49	96.6	88	95.9	97.4

Up ballot

Up ballot competitiveness, Kentucky
Year	U.S. House Seats	% Not usable	% With 5% margin	% With 10% margin	% Uncontested	U.S. Senate 1 margin	U.S. Senate 2 margin	President margin	Governor margin
1912								31
1916								5.5
1920								0.4
1924								3.1
1928								18.8
1932								19.1
1936								18.9
1939									13
1940						16.5		15.2
1942						10.7
1943									1.6
1944						9.9		9.3
1946	9	0	11.1	44.4	11.1	6.8
1947									14.8
1948	9	0	0	11.1	22.2	3.1		15.5
1950	9	0	0	0	55.6	9.1
1951									9.2
1952	8	0	0	25	0	3		0.1
1954	8	0	12.5	12.5	37.5	8.9
1955									16.7
1956	8	0	25	37.5	12.5	0.7	6.5	9.1
1958	8	0	12.5	12.5	25
1959									21.1
1960	8	0	12.5	25	37.5	18.4		7.2
1962	7	0	14.3	28.6	57.1	5.5
1963									1.5
1964	7	0	0	28.6	14.3			28.5
1966	7	0	0	14.3	0	29
1967									3.2
1968	7	0	0	0	14.3	3.8		7.5
1970	7	0	14.3	14.3	28.6
1971									6.4
1972	7	0	0	14.3	0	3.3		29.1
1974	7	0	14.3	14.3	0	9.7
1975									25.7
1976	7	0	0	0	14.3			7.3
1978	7	0	14.3	14.3	28.6	24.6
1979									18.8
1980	7	0	0	0	28.6	30.2		1.5
1982	7	0	0	14.3	14.3
1983									10.4
1984	7	0	0	14.3	14.3	0.4		20.7
1986	7	0	0	0	42.9	48.8
1987									29.7
1988	7	0	0	0	28.6			11.7
1990	7	0	14.3	14.3	42.9	4.4
1991									29.5
1992	6	0	0	33.3	0	27.4		3.7
1994	6	0	33.3	33.3	0
1995									3.4
1996	6	0	16.7	33.3	16.7	12.8		1.1
1998	6	0	16.7	50	0	0.6
1999									46.4
2000	6	0	0	16.7	0			15.5
2002	6	0	33.3	33.3	16.7	29.4
2003									10.1
2004	6	0	0	0	16.7	1.3		20
2006	6	0	16.7	33.3	16.7
2007									17.4
2008	6	0	0	16.7	16.7	5.9		16.5
2010	6	0	16.7	16.7	0	11.5
2012	6	0	16.7	16.7	0			23.1
2014	6	0	0	0	0	16

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