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Electoral competitiveness in Louisiana, 1912-2014

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Competitiveness in
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Published in April 2015

The 2014 national election continued the decline in U.S. electoral competitiveness that has occurred since 1972. The decline of electoral competitiveness that has been seen on the national stage, has also been seen in states. The Louisiana State Senate and Louisiana House of Representatives incumbent win rate never dipped below 80 percent from 1968 to 2011.

This page contains electoral competitiveness information at various levels of government in this state up to 2014. For more recent information about state legislative competitiveness nationwide, click here.

The data presented below are part of a larger project on electoral competitiveness, the full report is available in the table to the right. The images below illustrate the changes in the competitiveness of elections in Louisiana from 1912 through 2014. The data used to generate these graphs is available in the tables below those images.

Background

Since 1972, electoral competitiveness has tended to decrease across the United States. During that time, people who are members of the same political party have become more likely to live in the same area as one another than in the past. Nationally, the rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness is declining. On the national level, the percentage of state legislative elections won by 5 percent or less was nearly the lowest in the 1972 to 2014 period. In an absolute sense, the incidence of such elections was very low. Only 4.9 percent of U.S. residents in districts with elections saw their election won by 5 percent or less. Similarly, more Americans lived in areas with uncontested elections than ever before in the time period studied: 36.7 percent. State legislative primaries were often found to be won by wide margins or not contested at all. The rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness in elections in Louisiana

Table explanation

The columns in the tables below for both state senates and state houses are as follow:

  • Seats: number of seats in the state legislative chamber.
  • Percent Seats Up: percent of seats in the state legislative chamber that are up in a particular year for the November election.
  • Percent Won By Dem: the percent of seats in the state legislature that were won by a Democrat.
  • Percent Unusable: percent of seats for the state legislative chamber that weren’t usable to compute whether a race was marginal or not for this chamber in this year because of missing data. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent with 5% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent with 10% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Unusable Other: percent of seats that have missing data that prevent the computation of whether an incumbent won or lost, whether an incumbent ran or not, or whether a race was uncontested. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of races in a chamber that are uncontested.
  • Percent Incumbent Win: percent of incumbents who ran for a state chamber in a particular year who won.
  • Percent With Incumbent: number of incumbents running for reelection for a state-chamber in one year, divided by the number of seats that are up for election for that state-chamber, multiplied by 100.

The columns for the “Up ballot” tab are as follows:

  • U.S. House Seats: number of U.S. House Seats that a state was apportioned in the year in question.
  • Percent Not Usable: percent of U.S. House Seats in the state and year that aren’t usable to compute marginality or contestation, because of something unusual about the race.
  • Percent With 5% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent With 10% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of U.S. House races that were uncontested in the state and year.
  • U.S. Senate 1 Margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • U.S. Senate 2 Margin: This is only recorded when a second election to the U.S. Senate was held because of a Senator not completing their term. For such elections, this is the difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • President margin: difference between the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the most votes in a state minus the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the second most votes in a state.
  • Governor margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the gubernatorial election in a state with the gubernatorial candidate receiving the second most votes.

State Senate

State Senate competitiveness, Louisiana
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1968 39 100 100 0 0 0 5.1 64.1 100 76.9 100
1972 39 100 100 0 2.6 2.6 0 56.4 100 43.6 100
1975 39 100 100 0 15.4 20.5 0 69.2 87.5 61.5 87.5
1979 39 100 100 0 10.3 15.4 0 15.4 87.1 79.5 90 0
1983 39 100 97.4 0 0 15.4 0 30.8 85.7 89.7 85.7
1987 39 100 87.2 0 10.3 10.3 0 30.8 84.8 84.6 82.8 100
1991 39 100 84.6 0 12.8 15.4 0 28.2 92.9 71.8 92 100
1995 39 100 66.7 0 10.3 23.1 0 23.1 83.3 61.5 78.9 100
1999 39 100 66.7 0 5.1 15.4 0 41 92.9 71.8 94.4 90
2003 39 100 61.5 0 5.1 10.3 0 35.9 90.3 79.5 84.2 100
2007 39 100 61.5 0 15.4 25.6 0 23.1 100 38.5 100 100
2011 39 100 38.5 0 12.8 17.9 0 51.3 90.9 56.4 75 100

State House

State House competitiveness, Louisiana
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1968 105 100 99 0 1 1.9 0 49.5 100 88.6 100
1972 105 100 96.2 0 1.9 4.8 1 59 94.3 33.3 94.3
1975 105 100 97.1 0 8.6 19 0 65.7 94.2 65.7 94 100
1979 105 100 91.4 0 6.7 16.2 0 20 92.5 76.2 91.8 100
1983 105 100 87.6 0 8.6 16.2 0 27.6 87.2 74.3 85.5 100
1987 105 100 81.9 0 10.5 21 0 21 83.1 73.3 83.3 82.4
1991 105 100 83.8 0 11.4 20 1.9 21 80.8 74.3 82.5 69.2
1995 105 100 74.3 0 8.6 17.1 0 23.8 93 67.6 91.1 100
1999 105 100 70.5 0 7.6 9.5 0 47.6 94.7 71.4 93 100
2003 105 100 64.8 0 6.7 10.5 0 42.9 95.2 80 96.4 92.9
2007 105 100 50.5 0 14.3 21 0 24.8 94.4 34.3 89.5 100
2011 105 100 42.9 0 1.9 9.5 0 41 92.5 63.8 96.3 89.7

Up ballot

Up ballot competitiveness, Louisiana
Year U.S. House Seats % Not usable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Uncontested U.S. Senate 1 margin U.S. Senate 2 margin President margin Governor margin
1912 73.5
1916 85
1920 38.9
1924 58.1
1928 52.6
1932 85.9
1936 77.7 100
1940 71.8 100
1942 100
1944 100 61.2 100
1946 8 0 0 0 75
1948 8 0 0 0 87.5 49.8 100 19.9 100
1950 8 0 0 0 100 75.4
1952 8 0 0 0 87.5 5.8 100
1954 8 0 0 0 87.5 100
1956 8 0 0 0 75 100 14.8 100
1958 8 0 0 0 87.5
1960 8 0 0 0 37.5 59.5 27.6 65.1
1962 8 0 0 0 75 51.1
1964 8 0 0 25 50 13.6 22.4
1966 8 0 0 0 62.5 100
1968 8 0 12.5 12.5 62.5 100 26.3 100
1970 8 0 0 0 87.5
1972 8 0 0 12.5 75 48.7 39.5 14.3
1974 8 0 12.5 12.5 62.5 100
1975 100
1976 8 0 25 25 37.5 5.9
1978 8 0 12.5 12.5 87.5
1979 1
1980 8 0 0 0 100 5.6
1982 8 0 0 0 100
1983 33.9
1984 8 0 0 0 100 22.8
1986 8 0 12.5 12.5 87.5 5.6
1987 8.2
1988 8 0 0 0 87.5 10.4
1990 8 0 0 0 100
1991 22.3
1992 7 14.3 0 0 71.4 5.3
1994 7 0 0 0 100
1995 27
1996 7 28.6 0 0 57.1 13.1
1998 7 0 14.3 14.3 85.7 33.4
1999 35.6
2000 7 0 0 0 42.9 7.9
2002 7 14.3 0 0 71.4 2.9
2003 3.9
2004 7 42.9 25 25 14.3 3.6 14.7
2006 7 28.6 0 0 14.3
2007 51.1
2008 7 28.6 0 20 28.6 6.5 18.9
2010 7 14.3 0 0 14.3 20
2012 6 50 0 0 50 17.5
2014 6 33.3 0 0 16.7 11.9

Navigation map

Click on a different state below for more detailed data on electoral competitiveness.
http://ballotpedia.org/Competitiveness in STATE state legislative elections