Electoral competitiveness in Maine, 1912-2014

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Published in April 2015

The 2014 national election continued the decline in U.S. electoral competitiveness that has occurred since 1972. The decline of electoral competitiveness that has been seen on the national stage, has also been seen in states. The percent of Maine State Senate incumbents winning reelection increased from 70.6 percent in 1968 to 87 percent in 2014.

This page contains electoral competitiveness information at various levels of government in this state up to 2014. For more recent information about state legislative competitiveness nationwide, click here.

The data presented below are part of a larger project on electoral competitiveness, the full report is available in the table to the right. The images below illustrate the changes in the competitiveness of elections in Maine from 1912 through 2014. The data used to generate these graphs is available in the tables below those images.

Background

Since 1972, electoral competitiveness has tended to decrease across the United States. During that time, people who are members of the same political party have become more likely to live in the same area as one another than in the past. Nationally, the rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness is declining. On the national level, the percentage of state legislative elections won by 5 percent or less was nearly the lowest in the 1972 to 2014 period. In an absolute sense, the incidence of such elections was very low. Only 4.9 percent of U.S. residents in districts with elections saw their election won by 5 percent or less. Similarly, more Americans lived in areas with uncontested elections than ever before in the time period studied: 36.7 percent. State legislative primaries were often found to be won by wide margins or not contested at all. The rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness in elections in Maine

Table explanation

The columns in the tables below for both state senates and state houses are as follow:

  • Seats: number of seats in the state legislative chamber.
  • Percent Seats Up: percent of seats in the state legislative chamber that are up in a particular year for the November election.
  • Percent Won By Dem: the percent of seats in the state legislature that were won by a Democrat.
  • Percent Unusable: percent of seats for the state legislative chamber that weren’t usable to compute whether a race was marginal or not for this chamber in this year because of missing data. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent with 5% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent with 10% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Unusable Other: percent of seats that have missing data that prevent the computation of whether an incumbent won or lost, whether an incumbent ran or not, or whether a race was uncontested. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of races in a chamber that are uncontested.
  • Percent Incumbent Win: percent of incumbents who ran for a state chamber in a particular year who won.
  • Percent With Incumbent: number of incumbents running for reelection for a state-chamber in one year, divided by the number of seats that are up for election for that state-chamber, multiplied by 100.

The columns for the “Up ballot” tab are as follows:

  • U.S. House Seats: number of U.S. House Seats that a state was apportioned in the year in question.
  • Percent Not Usable: percent of U.S. House Seats in the state and year that aren’t usable to compute marginality or contestation, because of something unusual about the race.
  • Percent With 5% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent With 10% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of U.S. House races that were uncontested in the state and year.
  • U.S. Senate 1 Margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • U.S. Senate 2 Margin: This is only recorded when a second election to the U.S. Senate was held because of a Senator not completing their term. For such elections, this is the difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • President margin: difference between the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the most votes in a state minus the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the second most votes in a state.
  • Governor margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the gubernatorial election in a state with the gubernatorial candidate receiving the second most votes.

State Senate

State Senate competitiveness, Maine
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1968 32 100 43.8 0 12.5 21.9 0 15.6 70.6 53.1 50 76.9
1970 32 100 43.8 0 15.6 15.6 0 9.4 90.9 68.8 87.5 100
1972 33 100 33.3 0 18.2 24.2 0 3 94.4 54.5 83.3 100
1974 33 100 42.4 0 18.2 33.3 0 15.2 94.1 51.5 100 90.9
1976 33 100 36.4 0 3 21.2 0 24.2 90 60.6 83.3 92.9
1978 33 100 39.4 0 3 18.2 0 33.3 95 60.6 100 90.9
1980 33 100 48.5 0 9.1 9.1 0 21.2 100 75.8 100 100
1982 33 100 69.7 0 6.1 12.1 0 18.2 88.5 78.8 100 76.9
1984 35 100 68.6 0 8.6 11.4 0 37.1 96.2 74.3 94.7 100
1986 35 100 57.1 0 2.9 14.3 0 20 95.8 68.6 94.1 100
1988 35 100 57.1 0 14.3 22.9 0 11.4 87.5 91.4 88.9 85.7
1990 35 100 62.9 0 8.6 31.4 0 14.3 93.1 82.9 100 83.3
1992 35 100 57.1 0 5.7 20 0 11.4 86.4 62.9 85.7 87.5
1994 35 100 45.7 0 20 25.7 0 0 90.5 60 100 80
1996 35 100 54.3 0 5.7 14.3 0 5.7 91.3 65.7 100 84.6
1998 35 100 57.1 0 8.6 14.3 0 14.3 100 88.6 100 100
2000 35 100 48.6 0 8.6 31.4 0 2.9 90.9 62.9 85.7 100
2002 35 100 51.4 0 20 31.4 0 11.4 92 71.4 84.6 100
2004 35 100 51.4 0 14.3 37.1 0 5.7 72.7 62.9 69.2 77.8
2006 35 100 51.4 0 14.3 25.7 0 0 96.4 80 93.8 100
2008 35 100 57.1 0 22.9 37.1 0 0 92.6 77.1 100 85.7
2010 35 100 40 0 8.6 28.6 0 2.9 87.5 68.6 85.7 90
2012 35 100 54.3 0 17.1 42.9 0 0 81 60 100 69.2
2014 35 100 42.9 0 17.1 31.4 0 0 87 65.7 76.9 100

State House

State House competitiveness, Maine
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1968 151 100 43.7 0 9.9 21.9 0 16.6 89.6 63.6 92.5 87.5
1970 151 100 47 0 15.2 25.2 0 17.9 86.3 67.5 84.1 87.9
1972 151 100 47.7 0 11.9 22.5 0 11.9 88.1 66.9 91.8 86.3
1974 151 100 60.3 0 16.6 25.2 0 21.9 76.6 62.3 88.2 62.8
1976 151 100 58.9 0 11.3 23.2 0.7 23.3 86.6 74.7 88.4 85.7
1978 151 100 51 0 7.9 15.9 0 30.5 95.9 64.9 94.5 97.7
1980 151 100 55.6 0 11.3 20.5 0 27.2 92 66.2 92.7 91.1
1982 151 100 60.9 0 9.3 18.5 0 25.8 92.5 79.5 100 84.3
1984 151 100 55.6 0 9.9 16.6 0 33.1 92 74.2 91 93.3
1986 151 100 57 0 8.6 17.9 0 11.3 92.1 83.4 94.2 89.5
1988 151 100 64.9 0 6 12.6 0 20.5 95.8 78.1 100 90.7
1990 151 100 64.2 0 7.3 20.5 0 23.8 89.7 83.4 94 81.4
1992 151 100 60.3 0 9.3 17.9 0 20.5 94.3 69.5 94.1 94.4
1994 151 100 51 0 16.6 35.1 0 20.5 85.9 60.9 81.1 92.3
1996 151 100 53.6 0 17.2 27.2 0 7.3 86.1 66.9 88.6 84.2
1998 151 100 52.3 0 8.6 15.2 0 23.2 89 78.1 90.9 86.3
2000 151 100 58.9 0 8.6 19.9 0 22.5 93.8 74.2 94.7 92.7
2002 151 100 53 0 12.6 29.8 0 13.9 85.4 63.6 81.7 91.7
2004 151 100 50.3 0 19.9 35.8 0 2 88.5 68.9 84.2 93.3
2006 151 100 58.9 0 19.9 35.1 0 2.6 88.3 73.5 98.2 78.8
2008 151 100 63.6 0 10.6 24.5 0 11.9 93.1 67.5 98.2 86.7
2010 151 100 48.3 0 7.9 27.8 0 4.6 85.8 74.8 78.7 100
2012 151 100 58.9 0 20.5 35.1 0 4.6 86.5 63.6 97.7 76.5
2014 151 100 52.3 0 15.9 28.5 0 10.6 84 66.2 83.1 87.1

Up ballot

Up ballot competitiveness, Maine
Year U.S. House Seats % Not usable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Uncontested U.S. Senate 1 margin U.S. Senate 2 margin President margin Governor margin
1912 2.6
1916 4.1
1920 39.6
1924 53.5
1928 37.8
1932 12.8
1936 14.4 14.2
1938 5.9
1940 17.4 2.3 27.7
1942 33.3 33.7
1944 5 40.5
1946 3 0 0 0 0 27.1 22.6
1948 3 0 0 0 0 42.6 14.6 31.2
1950 3 0 0 33.3 0 21.5
1952 3 0 0 0 0 25.5 32.3 21.8
1954 3 0 33.3 66.7 0 17.2 9
1956 3 0 33.3 66.7 0 41.7 18.3
1958 3 0 33.3 33.3 0 21.6 4
1960 3 0 0 66.7 0 23.3 14.1 5.3
1962 2 0 50 50 0 0.2
1964 2 0 50 50 0 33.2 37.7
1966 2 0 0 50 0 17.9 6.2
1968 2 0 0 0 0 12.4
1970 2 0 0 0 0 23.5 0.3
1972 2 0 0 50 0 6.5 23
1974 2 0 50 50 0 3.7
1976 2 0 0 0 0 20.4 0.9
1978 2 0 0 0 0 25 16.4
1980 2 0 0 0 0 3.8
1982 2 0 50 50 0 21.7 23.8
1984 2 0 0 0 0 47.9 22.1
1986 2 0 0 50 0 13.9
1988 2 0 0 0 0 62.4 11.5
1990 2 0 50 50 0 22.7 2.9
1992 2 0 0 50 0 12
1994 2 0 50 100 0 24.7 2.2
1996 2 0 0 0 0 5.7 25.3
1998 2 0 0 0 0 51.2
2000 2 0 0 0 0 37.9 5.5
2002 2 0 50 50 0 16.9 6.4
2004 2 0 0 0 0 9.2
2006 2 0 0 0 0 56.4 11.6
2008 2 0 0 50 0 22.8 17.7
2010 2 0 0 0 0 2.3
2012 2 0 0 0 0 39.7 15.7
2014 2 0 0 50 0 37 5.3

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