Electoral competitiveness in Maine, 1912-2014

Competitiveness in state legislatures
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Published in April 2015

The 2014 national election continued the decline in U.S. electoral competitiveness that has occurred since 1972. The decline of electoral competitiveness that has been seen on the national stage, has also been seen in states. The percent of Maine State Senate incumbents winning reelection increased from 70.6 percent in 1968 to 87 percent in 2014.

This page contains electoral competitiveness information at various levels of government in this state up to 2014. For more recent information about state legislative competitiveness nationwide, click here.

The data presented below are part of a larger project on electoral competitiveness, the full report is available in the table to the right. The images below illustrate the changes in the competitiveness of elections in Maine from 1912 through 2014. The data used to generate these graphs is available in the tables below those images.

Background

Since 1972, electoral competitiveness has tended to decrease across the United States. During that time, people who are members of the same political party have become more likely to live in the same area as one another than in the past. Nationally, the rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness is declining. On the national level, the percentage of state legislative elections won by 5 percent or less was nearly the lowest in the 1972 to 2014 period. In an absolute sense, the incidence of such elections was very low. Only 4.9 percent of U.S. residents in districts with elections saw their election won by 5 percent or less. Similarly, more Americans lived in areas with uncontested elections than ever before in the time period studied: 36.7 percent. State legislative primaries were often found to be won by wide margins or not contested at all. The rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness in elections in Maine

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  [Ballot_StateGraph01_Marg_Stateno19Maine2015_04_23.png|Marginal Elections]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph02_Uncont_Stateno19Maine2015_04_23.png|Uncontested Elections]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph03_Inc_Stateno19Maine2015_04_23.png|Incumbent Win Rates]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph04_US_HS_Stateno19Maine2015_04_23.png|Competitiveness in U.S. House Seats]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph05_UpBallot_Stateno19Maine2015_04_23.png|Margin of Victory in Up Ballot Elections]

Table explanation

The columns in the tables below for both state senates and state houses are as follow:

• Seats: number of seats in the state legislative chamber.
• Percent Seats Up: percent of seats in the state legislative chamber that are up in a particular year for the November election.
• Percent Won By Dem: the percent of seats in the state legislature that were won by a Democrat.
• Percent Unusable: percent of seats for the state legislative chamber that weren’t usable to compute whether a race was marginal or not for this chamber in this year because of missing data. This column usually says “0.”
• Percent with 5% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 5% or less.
• Percent with 10% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 10% or less.
• Percent Unusable Other: percent of seats that have missing data that prevent the computation of whether an incumbent won or lost, whether an incumbent ran or not, or whether a race was uncontested. This column usually says “0.”
• Percent Uncontested: percent of races in a chamber that are uncontested.
• Percent Incumbent Win: percent of incumbents who ran for a state chamber in a particular year who won.
• Percent With Incumbent: number of incumbents running for reelection for a state-chamber in one year, divided by the number of seats that are up for election for that state-chamber, multiplied by 100.

The columns for the “Up ballot” tab are as follows:

• U.S. House Seats: number of U.S. House Seats that a state was apportioned in the year in question.
• Percent Not Usable: percent of U.S. House Seats in the state and year that aren’t usable to compute marginality or contestation, because of something unusual about the race.
• Percent With 5% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 5% or less.
• Percent With 10% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 10% or less.
• Percent Uncontested: percent of U.S. House races that were uncontested in the state and year.
• U.S. Senate 1 Margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
• U.S. Senate 2 Margin: This is only recorded when a second election to the U.S. Senate was held because of a Senator not completing their term. For such elections, this is the difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
• President margin: difference between the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the most votes in a state minus the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the second most votes in a state.
• Governor margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the gubernatorial election in a state with the gubernatorial candidate receiving the second most votes.

State Senate

State Senate competitiveness, Maine
Year	Seats	% Seats up	% Won by Dem	% Unusable	% With 5% margin	% With 10% margin	% Unusuable other	% Uncontested	% Incumbent win	% With incumbent	% of Dem inc winning	% of Repub inc winning
1968	32	100	43.8	0	12.5	21.9	0	15.6	70.6	53.1	50	76.9
1970	32	100	43.8	0	15.6	15.6	0	9.4	90.9	68.8	87.5	100
1972	33	100	33.3	0	18.2	24.2	0	3	94.4	54.5	83.3	100
1974	33	100	42.4	0	18.2	33.3	0	15.2	94.1	51.5	100	90.9
1976	33	100	36.4	0	3	21.2	0	24.2	90	60.6	83.3	92.9
1978	33	100	39.4	0	3	18.2	0	33.3	95	60.6	100	90.9
1980	33	100	48.5	0	9.1	9.1	0	21.2	100	75.8	100	100
1982	33	100	69.7	0	6.1	12.1	0	18.2	88.5	78.8	100	76.9
1984	35	100	68.6	0	8.6	11.4	0	37.1	96.2	74.3	94.7	100
1986	35	100	57.1	0	2.9	14.3	0	20	95.8	68.6	94.1	100
1988	35	100	57.1	0	14.3	22.9	0	11.4	87.5	91.4	88.9	85.7
1990	35	100	62.9	0	8.6	31.4	0	14.3	93.1	82.9	100	83.3
1992	35	100	57.1	0	5.7	20	0	11.4	86.4	62.9	85.7	87.5
1994	35	100	45.7	0	20	25.7	0	0	90.5	60	100	80
1996	35	100	54.3	0	5.7	14.3	0	5.7	91.3	65.7	100	84.6
1998	35	100	57.1	0	8.6	14.3	0	14.3	100	88.6	100	100
2000	35	100	48.6	0	8.6	31.4	0	2.9	90.9	62.9	85.7	100
2002	35	100	51.4	0	20	31.4	0	11.4	92	71.4	84.6	100
2004	35	100	51.4	0	14.3	37.1	0	5.7	72.7	62.9	69.2	77.8
2006	35	100	51.4	0	14.3	25.7	0	0	96.4	80	93.8	100
2008	35	100	57.1	0	22.9	37.1	0	0	92.6	77.1	100	85.7
2010	35	100	40	0	8.6	28.6	0	2.9	87.5	68.6	85.7	90
2012	35	100	54.3	0	17.1	42.9	0	0	81	60	100	69.2
2014	35	100	42.9	0	17.1	31.4	0	0	87	65.7	76.9	100

State House

State House competitiveness, Maine
Year	Seats	% Seats up	% Won by Dem	% Unusable	% With 5% margin	% With 10% margin	% Unusuable other	% Uncontested	% Incumbent win	% With incumbent	% of Dem inc winning	% of Repub inc winning
1968	151	100	43.7	0	9.9	21.9	0	16.6	89.6	63.6	92.5	87.5
1970	151	100	47	0	15.2	25.2	0	17.9	86.3	67.5	84.1	87.9
1972	151	100	47.7	0	11.9	22.5	0	11.9	88.1	66.9	91.8	86.3
1974	151	100	60.3	0	16.6	25.2	0	21.9	76.6	62.3	88.2	62.8
1976	151	100	58.9	0	11.3	23.2	0.7	23.3	86.6	74.7	88.4	85.7
1978	151	100	51	0	7.9	15.9	0	30.5	95.9	64.9	94.5	97.7
1980	151	100	55.6	0	11.3	20.5	0	27.2	92	66.2	92.7	91.1
1982	151	100	60.9	0	9.3	18.5	0	25.8	92.5	79.5	100	84.3
1984	151	100	55.6	0	9.9	16.6	0	33.1	92	74.2	91	93.3
1986	151	100	57	0	8.6	17.9	0	11.3	92.1	83.4	94.2	89.5
1988	151	100	64.9	0	6	12.6	0	20.5	95.8	78.1	100	90.7
1990	151	100	64.2	0	7.3	20.5	0	23.8	89.7	83.4	94	81.4
1992	151	100	60.3	0	9.3	17.9	0	20.5	94.3	69.5	94.1	94.4
1994	151	100	51	0	16.6	35.1	0	20.5	85.9	60.9	81.1	92.3
1996	151	100	53.6	0	17.2	27.2	0	7.3	86.1	66.9	88.6	84.2
1998	151	100	52.3	0	8.6	15.2	0	23.2	89	78.1	90.9	86.3
2000	151	100	58.9	0	8.6	19.9	0	22.5	93.8	74.2	94.7	92.7
2002	151	100	53	0	12.6	29.8	0	13.9	85.4	63.6	81.7	91.7
2004	151	100	50.3	0	19.9	35.8	0	2	88.5	68.9	84.2	93.3
2006	151	100	58.9	0	19.9	35.1	0	2.6	88.3	73.5	98.2	78.8
2008	151	100	63.6	0	10.6	24.5	0	11.9	93.1	67.5	98.2	86.7
2010	151	100	48.3	0	7.9	27.8	0	4.6	85.8	74.8	78.7	100
2012	151	100	58.9	0	20.5	35.1	0	4.6	86.5	63.6	97.7	76.5
2014	151	100	52.3	0	15.9	28.5	0	10.6	84	66.2	83.1	87.1

Up ballot

Up ballot competitiveness, Maine
Year	U.S. House Seats	% Not usable	% With 5% margin	% With 10% margin	% Uncontested	U.S. Senate 1 margin	U.S. Senate 2 margin	President margin	Governor margin
1912								2.6
1916								4.1
1920								39.6
1924								53.5
1928								37.8
1932								12.8
1936								14.4	14.2
1938									5.9
1940						17.4		2.3	27.7
1942						33.3			33.7
1944								5	40.5
1946	3	0	0	0	0	27.1			22.6
1948	3	0	0	0	0	42.6		14.6	31.2
1950	3	0	0	33.3	0				21.5
1952	3	0	0	0	0	25.5		32.3	21.8
1954	3	0	33.3	66.7	0	17.2			9
1956	3	0	33.3	66.7	0			41.7	18.3
1958	3	0	33.3	33.3	0	21.6			4
1960	3	0	0	66.7	0	23.3		14.1	5.3
1962	2	0	50	50	0				0.2
1964	2	0	50	50	0	33.2		37.7
1966	2	0	0	50	0	17.9			6.2
1968	2	0	0	0	0			12.4
1970	2	0	0	0	0	23.5			0.3
1972	2	0	0	50	0	6.5		23
1974	2	0	50	50	0				3.7
1976	2	0	0	0	0	20.4		0.9
1978	2	0	0	0	0	25			16.4
1980	2	0	0	0	0			3.8
1982	2	0	50	50	0	21.7			23.8
1984	2	0	0	0	0	47.9		22.1
1986	2	0	0	50	0				13.9
1988	2	0	0	0	0	62.4		11.5
1990	2	0	50	50	0	22.7			2.9
1992	2	0	0	50	0			12
1994	2	0	50	100	0	24.7			2.2
1996	2	0	0	0	0	5.7		25.3
1998	2	0	0	0	0				51.2
2000	2	0	0	0	0	37.9		5.5
2002	2	0	50	50	0	16.9			6.4
2004	2	0	0	0	0			9.2
2006	2	0	0	0	0	56.4			11.6
2008	2	0	0	50	0	22.8		17.7
2010	2	0	0	0	0				2.3
2012	2	0	0	0	0	39.7		15.7
2014	2	0	0	50	0	37			5.3

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