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Electoral competitiveness in Massachusetts, 1912-2014

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Published in April 2015

The 2014 national election continued the decline in U.S. electoral competitiveness that has occurred since 1972. The decline of electoral competitiveness that has been seen on the national stage, has also been seen in states. For example, the percentage of uncontested Massachusetts House of Representatives races increased from 34.2 percent in 1968 to 58.8 percent in 2014.

This page contains electoral competitiveness information at various levels of government in this state up to 2014. For more recent information about state legislative competitiveness nationwide, click here.

The data presented below are part of a larger project on electoral competitiveness, the full report is available in the table to the right. The images below illustrate the changes in the competitiveness of elections in Massachusetts from 1912 through 2014. The data used to generate these graphs is available in the tables below those images.

Background

Since 1972, electoral competitiveness has tended to decrease across the United States. During that time, people who are members of the same political party have become more likely to live in the same area as one another than in the past. Nationally, the rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness is declining. On the national level, the percentage of state legislative elections won by 5 percent or less was nearly the lowest in the 1972 to 2014 period. In an absolute sense, the incidence of such elections was very low. Only 4.9 percent of U.S. residents in districts with elections saw their election won by 5 percent or less. Similarly, more Americans lived in areas with uncontested elections than ever before in the time period studied: 36.7 percent. State legislative primaries were often found to be won by wide margins or not contested at all. The rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness in elections in Massachusetts

Table explanation

The columns in the tables below for both state senates and state houses are as follow:

  • Seats: number of seats in the state legislative chamber.
  • Percent Seats Up: percent of seats in the state legislative chamber that are up in a particular year for the November election.
  • Percent Won By Dem: the percent of seats in the state legislature that were won by a Democrat.
  • Percent Unusable: percent of seats for the state legislative chamber that weren’t usable to compute whether a race was marginal or not for this chamber in this year because of missing data. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent with 5% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent with 10% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Unusable Other: percent of seats that have missing data that prevent the computation of whether an incumbent won or lost, whether an incumbent ran or not, or whether a race was uncontested. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of races in a chamber that are uncontested.
  • Percent Incumbent Win: percent of incumbents who ran for a state chamber in a particular year who won.
  • Percent With Incumbent: number of incumbents running for reelection for a state-chamber in one year, divided by the number of seats that are up for election for that state-chamber, multiplied by 100.

The columns for the “Up ballot” tab are as follows:

  • U.S. House Seats: number of U.S. House Seats that a state was apportioned in the year in question.
  • Percent Not Usable: percent of U.S. House Seats in the state and year that aren’t usable to compute marginality or contestation, because of something unusual about the race.
  • Percent With 5% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent With 10% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of U.S. House races that were uncontested in the state and year.
  • U.S. Senate 1 Margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • U.S. Senate 2 Margin: This is only recorded when a second election to the U.S. Senate was held because of a Senator not completing their term. For such elections, this is the difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • President margin: difference between the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the most votes in a state minus the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the second most votes in a state.
  • Governor margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the gubernatorial election in a state with the gubernatorial candidate receiving the second most votes.

State Senate

State Senate competitiveness, Massachusetts
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1968 40 100 67.5 0 5 10 0 37.5 97.1 85 100 92.3
1970 40 100 75 0 2.5 7.5 0 50 97 82.5 100 90
1972 40 100 82.5 0 10 12.5 0 37.5 87.1 77.5 95.5 66.7
1974 40 100 82.5 0 0 0 0 65 100 87.5 100 100
1976 40 100 82.5 0 2.5 2.5 0 60 100 87.5 100 100
1978 40 100 85 0 2.5 2.5 0 52.5 100 80 100 100
1980 40 100 80 0 10 10 0 72.5 97.1 85 96.6 100
1982 40 100 82.5 0 0 5 0 60 97.1 87.5 100 83.3
1984 40 100 80 0 5 7.5 0 62.5 97 82.5 100 100
1986 40 100 80 0 0 0 0 65 100 92.5 100 100
1988 40 100 77.5 0 2.5 5 0 50 100 85 100 100
1990 40 100 60 0 17.5 27.5 0 17.5 80 75 75 100
1992 40 100 77.5 0 5 15 0 32.5 83.3 75 100 64.3
1994 40 100 75 0 5 10 0 50 97.1 85 96.3 100
1996 40 100 80 0 0 2.5 0 65 100 82.5 100 100
1998 40 100 82.5 0 2.5 2.5 0 67.5 100 85 100 100
2000 40 100 85 0 2.5 5 0 70 100 90 100 100
2002 40 100 85 0 0 0 0 67.5 100 90 100 100
2004 40 100 85 0 2.5 2.5 0 32.5 100 87.5 100 100
2006 40 100 87.5 0 0 0 0 67.5 100 92.5 100 100
2008 40 100 87.5 0 0 0 0 80 100 80 100 100
2010 40 100 90 0 5 7.5 0 35 100 75 100 100
2012 40 100 90 0 0 0 0 67.5 100 87.5 100 100
2014 40 100 85 0 2.5 10 0 52.5 97 82.5 96.7 100

State House

State House competitiveness, Massachusetts
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1968 240 100 72.1 0 5 10 0 34.2 95.2 78.8 98.5 87
1970 240 100 73.8 0 4.6 12.5 0 52.1 94.8 80 96.5 90.2
1972 240 100 77.5 0 5.4 9.6 0 42.1 96.1 75.4 97.8 91.3
1974 240 100 79.6 0 6.7 10.8 0 54.6 94.7 78.8 97.3 85.7
1976 240 100 80.8 0 2.9 7.1 0 54.6 94.4 81.7 98 89.5
1978 160 100 80 0 7.5 10.6 0 43.8 91.8 91.3 94 92
1980 160 100 80 0 4.4 10 0 55.6 96.4 87.5 98.2 96.3
1982 160 100 81.9 0 3.1 5 0 60.6 100 85 100 100
1984 160 100 78.8 0 3.8 6.9 0 58.1 98.5 81.9 98.1 100
1986 160 100 78.8 0 2.5 4.4 0 68.1 98.5 85.6 98.1 100
1988 160 100 80.6 0 0.6 1.9 0 65.6 98.6 88.1 100 93.5
1990 160 100 75.6 0 10 22.5 0 31.3 92.9 79.4 93.1 92
1992 160 100 77.5 0 3.1 8.1 0 41.9 98.4 78.1 100 93.1
1994 160 100 77.5 0 4.4 7.5 0 53.1 97.6 76.9 99 91.7
1996 160 100 81.3 0 3.1 6.3 0 65.6 98.5 81.9 100 91.7
1998 160 100 81.9 0 1.3 3.1 0 70.6 98.6 86.3 99.1 96
2000 160 100 85 0 0.6 3.8 0 67.5 98.5 84.4 100 95
2002 160 100 85 0 3.8 6.3 0 61.9 97.8 85 97.5 100
2004 160 100 86.3 0 1.9 2.5 0 45 100 91.3 100 100
2006 160 100 87.5 0 3.8 5 0 69.4 98.6 88.1 99.2 94.7
2008 160 100 89.4 0 2.5 5.6 0 73.8 100 86.3 100 100
2010 160 100 80 0 8.1 16.9 0 48.1 90.8 81.9 90 100
2012 160 100 81.9 0 4.4 5.6 0 63.8 97.9 90 100 90
2014 160 100 77.5 0 6.9 11.9 0 58.8 98.5 81.9 98.1 100

Up ballot

Up ballot competitiveness, Massachusetts
Year U.S. House Seats % Not usable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Uncontested U.S. Senate 1 margin U.S. Senate 2 margin President margin Governor margin
1912 5.3
1916 4
1920 42.2
1924 42.9
1928 1.1
1932 4.1
1936 10.2 1.6
1938 8.5
1940 13 6.8 0.3
1942 5.9 9.2
1944 29.6 5.8 7.7
1946 14 0 14.3 14.3 7.1 20 8.9
1948 14 0 7.1 14.3 28.6 6.6 11.8 18.6
1950 14 0 0 14.3 0 13.2
1952 14 0 14.3 28.6 7.1 3 8.8 0.6
1954 14 0 7.1 14.3 28.6 1.5 4
1956 14 0 0 14.3 7.1 19 5.9
1958 14 0 7.1 21.4 28.6 47.2 13.2
1960 14 0 0 7.1 35.7 12.8 20.7 5.8
1962 12 0 0 0 16.7 14 0.3
1964 12 0 0 0 41.7 49 52.9 1
1966 12 0 8.3 8.3 41.7 22.1 25.8
1968 12 0 0 0 33.3 31.4
1970 12 0 16.7 25 33.3 25.4 14
1972 12 8.3 18.2 27.3 50 29.3 9
1974 12 0 0 0 50 11.7
1976 12 0 8.3 8.3 33.3 41 16.2
1978 12 0 0 8.3 50 10.2 5.3
1980 12 0 16.7 16.7 25 0.2
1982 11 0 0 0 36.4 22.8 23.8
1984 11 0 0 9.1 27.3 10.1 2.8
1986 11 0 0 0 63.6 37.6
1988 11 0 0 0 45.5 31.4 8
1990 11 0 9.1 18.2 45.5 14.2 3.3
1992 10 0 0 20 10 24.2
1994 10 0 10 10 30 17.2 43.1
1996 10 0 10 30 10 7.7 37.3
1998 10 0 0 0 30 3.5
2000 10 0 0 0 50 69.9 29.6
2002 10 0 0 0 60 100 5.1
2004 10 0 0 0 50 25.5
2006 10 0 0 0 70 38.8 22.3
2008 10 0 0 0 60 36.1 26.4
2010 10 0 0 10 10 7.1
2012 9 0 11.1 11.1 33.3 7.6 23.6
2014 9 0 0 11.1 66.7 23.9 2

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