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Electoral competitiveness in Minnesota, 1912-2014

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Competitiveness in
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Published in April 2015

The 2014 national election continued the decline in U.S. electoral competitiveness that has occurred since 1972. The decline of electoral competitiveness that has been seen on the national stage, has also been seen in states. Minnesota has generally had very high percentage of incumbents running for and winning reelection. From 1974 the percentage of Minnesota House of Representatives and Minnesota State Senate incumbents running for and winning reelection never dipped below 68 percent.

This page contains electoral competitiveness information at various levels of government in this state up to 2014. For more recent information about state legislative competitiveness nationwide, click here.

The data presented below are part of a larger project on electoral competitiveness, the full report is available in the table to the right. The images below illustrate the changes in the competitiveness of elections in Minnesota from 1912 through 2014. The data used to generate these graphs is available in the tables below those images.

Background

Since 1972, electoral competitiveness has tended to decrease across the United States. During that time, people who are members of the same political party have become more likely to live in the same area as one another than in the past. Nationally, the rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness is declining. On the national level, the percentage of state legislative elections won by 5 percent or less was nearly the lowest in the 1972 to 2014 period. In an absolute sense, the incidence of such elections was very low. Only 4.9 percent of U.S. residents in districts with elections saw their election won by 5 percent or less. Similarly, more Americans lived in areas with uncontested elections than ever before in the time period studied: 36.7 percent. State legislative primaries were often found to be won by wide margins or not contested at all. The rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness in elections in Minnesota

Table explanation

The columns in the tables below for both state senates and state houses are as follow:

  • Seats: number of seats in the state legislative chamber.
  • Percent Seats Up: percent of seats in the state legislative chamber that are up in a particular year for the November election.
  • Percent Won By Dem: the percent of seats in the state legislature that were won by a Democrat.
  • Percent Unusable: percent of seats for the state legislative chamber that weren’t usable to compute whether a race was marginal or not for this chamber in this year because of missing data. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent with 5% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent with 10% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Unusable Other: percent of seats that have missing data that prevent the computation of whether an incumbent won or lost, whether an incumbent ran or not, or whether a race was uncontested. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of races in a chamber that are uncontested.
  • Percent Incumbent Win: percent of incumbents who ran for a state chamber in a particular year who won.
  • Percent With Incumbent: number of incumbents running for reelection for a state-chamber in one year, divided by the number of seats that are up for election for that state-chamber, multiplied by 100.

The columns for the “Up ballot” tab are as follows:

  • U.S. House Seats: number of U.S. House Seats that a state was apportioned in the year in question.
  • Percent Not Usable: percent of U.S. House Seats in the state and year that aren’t usable to compute marginality or contestation, because of something unusual about the race.
  • Percent With 5% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent With 10% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of U.S. House races that were uncontested in the state and year.
  • U.S. Senate 1 Margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • U.S. Senate 2 Margin: This is only recorded when a second election to the U.S. Senate was held because of a Senator not completing their term. For such elections, this is the difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • President margin: difference between the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the most votes in a state minus the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the second most votes in a state.
  • Governor margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the gubernatorial election in a state with the gubernatorial candidate receiving the second most votes.

State Senate

State Senate competitiveness, Minnesota
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1970 67 0 16.4 29.9
1972 67 0 14.9 26.9
1974 67 3 100 0 0 0 0 0 0
1976 67 100 73.1 0 13.4 22.4 0 9 86.5 77.6 100 70
1980 67 100 67.2 0 9 28.4 0 9 87 68.7 84.8 92.3
1982 67 100 62.7 0 20.9 22.4 0 4.5 89.8 73.1 93.8 87.5
1986 67 100 70.1 0 6 13.4 0 7.5 94.9 88.1 100 85.7
1990 67 100 68.7 0 13.4 19.4 0 4.5 96 74.6 100 87.5
1992 67 100 65.7 0 11.9 19.4 0 0 94.3 79.1 94.9 92.9
1996 67 100 62.7 0 6 14.9 0 3 100 77.6 100 100
2000 67 100 58.2 0 4.5 20.9 0 3 98.2 82.1 96.9 100
2002 67 100 52.2 0 13.4 31.3 0 4.5 86.3 76.1 80.6 94.7
2006 67 100 65.7 0 17.9 29.9 0 3 83.3 80.6 93.1 72
2008 67 3 100 0 50 50 0 0 0
2010 67 100 44.8 0 11.9 28.4 0 3 77.8 80.6 69.2 100
2012 67 100 58.2 0 10.4 37.3 0 6 85.1 70.1 100 73.1

State House

State House competitiveness, Minnesota
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1968 135 0 16.3 29.6
1970 135 0 14.1 29.6
1972 134 0 21.6 35.1
1974 134 100 77.6 0 15.7 29.9 0 11.2 76.9 77.6 93.7 53.8
1976 134 100 77.6 0 7.5 18.7 0 9.7 95.6 85.1 97.8 88
1978 134 100 50 0 14.9 29.1 0 14.2 74.6 91 66.7 100
1980 134 100 52.2 0 7.5 19.4 0 17.2 94.5 82.1 100 90.2
1982 134 100 57.5 0 12.7 26.9 0 8.2 94.6 69.4 98.1 90.2
1984 134 100 48.5 0 11.2 22.4 0 5.2 89.3 83.6 84.6 95.7
1986 134 100 61.9 0 10.4 20.1 0 9 85.7 88.8 100 73
1988 134 100 60.4 0 11.9 19.4 0 6.7 94.4 93.3 94.8 93.8
1990 134 100 59 0 7.5 14.2 0 14.9 93.1 86.6 94.4 91.1
1992 134 100 64.9 0 12.7 23.1 0 8.2 92.5 79.1 97.1 83.3
1994 134 100 53 0 10.4 20.9 0 8.2 90.4 85.1 85.5 100
1996 134 100 52.2 0 9.7 16.4 0 5.2 97.3 82.8 100 94.5
1998 134 100 47 0 6 15.7 0 5.2 94.8 85.8 90.2 100
2000 134 100 48.5 0 9 17.9 0 10.4 95.7 87.3 96.2 95.4
2002 134 100 38.8 0 8.2 20.9 0 6 90.9 73.9 83 100
2004 134 100 49.3 0 17.2 27.6 0 0 89 88.1 100 82.4
2006 134 100 63.4 0 16.4 32.8 0 3.7 89.1 82.1 100 78.2
2008 134 100 64.9 0 10.4 24.6 0 0 94.8 86.6 96.2 94.4
2010 134 100 46.3 0 16.4 23.1 0 3 82.4 88.8 73.8 100
2012 134 100 54.5 0 12.7 29.1 0 3 90.9 73.9 100 83.6
2014 134 100 46.3 0 11.9 18.7 0 6.7 90.6 87.3 83.6 100

Up ballot

Up ballot competitiveness, Minnesota
Year U.S. House Seats % Not usable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Uncontested U.S. Senate 1 margin U.S. Senate 2 margin President margin Governor margin
1912 8.4
1916 0.1
1920 56.8
1924 10.7
1928 17.2
1932 24.5
1936 33.2 22.3
1938 27.3
1940 44.1 3.9 17.5
1942 63.7 15.5
1944 5.6 22.9
1946 9 0 22.2 22.2 0 19.4 19.5
1948 9 0 11.1 55.6 0 20.3 17.8 8.2
1950 9 0 11.1 11.1 0 22.7
1952 9 0 11.1 22.2 0 14.2 11.3 11.4
1954 9 0 11.1 33.3 0 14.5 6
1956 9 0 11.1 22.2 0 7.6 3.2
1958 9 0 22.2 33.3 0 6.3 14.6
1960 9 0 11.1 33.3 0 15.4 1.4 1.5
1962 8 0 37.5 37.5 0 0
1964 8 0 25 25 0 21.2 27.8
1966 8 0 12.5 25 12.5 8.8 5.6
1968 8 0 12.5 12.5 0 13.1
1970 8 0 25 37.5 0 16.2 8.5
1972 8 0 12.5 12.5 0 13.9 5.6
1974 8 0 0 12.5 0 36.3
1976 8 0 0 0 12.5 45.9 13.3
1978 8 0 0 12.5 12.5 16.7 28 7.2
1980 8 0 12.5 25 0 4.4
1982 8 0 37.5 50 0 6.1 18.9
1984 8 0 0 0 0 16.9 0.2
1986 8 0 25 25 0 13.1
1988 8 0 0 12.5 0 15.7 7.1
1990 8 0 0 12.5 0 2.7 3.5
1992 8 0 25 25 0 15.4
1994 8 0 25 37.5 0 5.3 30
1996 8 0 0 12.5 0 9.9 18.8
1998 8 0 12.5 25 0 3.8
2000 8 0 25 25 0 6 2.6
2002 8 0 0 0 0 2.3 9.8
2004 8 0 0 12.5 0 3.5
2006 8 0 0 25 0 21 1
2008 8 0 12.5 25 0 0 10.5
2010 8 0 12.5 25 0 0.5
2012 8 0 12.5 37.5 0 36.2 7.9
2014 8 0 12.5 37.5 0 10.7 5.9

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