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Electoral competitiveness in Mississippi, 1912-2014

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Competitiveness in
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Published in April 2015

The 2014 national election continued the decline in U.S. electoral competitiveness that has occurred since 1972. The decline of electoral competitiveness that has been seen on the national stage, has also been seen in states. For example, while just as many incumbents are running for reelection, the percentage of Mississippi state legislators winning reelection has increased from 1971 to 2011.

This page contains electoral competitiveness information at various levels of government in this state up to 2014. For more recent information about state legislative competitiveness nationwide, click here.

The data presented below are part of a larger project on electoral competitiveness, the full report is available in the table to the right. The images below illustrate the changes in the competitiveness of elections in Mississippi from 1912 through 2014. The data used to generate these graphs is available in the tables below those images.

Background

Since 1972, electoral competitiveness has tended to decrease across the United States. During that time, people who are members of the same political party have become more likely to live in the same area as one another than in the past. Nationally, the rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness is declining. On the national level, the percentage of state legislative elections won by 5 percent or less was nearly the lowest in the 1972 to 2014 period. In an absolute sense, the incidence of such elections was very low. Only 4.9 percent of U.S. residents in districts with elections saw their election won by 5 percent or less. Similarly, more Americans lived in areas with uncontested elections than ever before in the time period studied: 36.7 percent. State legislative primaries were often found to be won by wide margins or not contested at all. The rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness in elections in Mississippi

Table explanation

The columns in the tables below for both state senates and state houses are as follow:

  • Seats: number of seats in the state legislative chamber.
  • Percent Seats Up: percent of seats in the state legislative chamber that are up in a particular year for the November election.
  • Percent Won By Dem: the percent of seats in the state legislature that were won by a Democrat.
  • Percent Unusable: percent of seats for the state legislative chamber that weren’t usable to compute whether a race was marginal or not for this chamber in this year because of missing data. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent with 5% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent with 10% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Unusable Other: percent of seats that have missing data that prevent the computation of whether an incumbent won or lost, whether an incumbent ran or not, or whether a race was uncontested. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of races in a chamber that are uncontested.
  • Percent Incumbent Win: percent of incumbents who ran for a state chamber in a particular year who won.
  • Percent With Incumbent: number of incumbents running for reelection for a state-chamber in one year, divided by the number of seats that are up for election for that state-chamber, multiplied by 100.

The columns for the “Up ballot” tab are as follows:

  • U.S. House Seats: number of U.S. House Seats that a state was apportioned in the year in question.
  • Percent Not Usable: percent of U.S. House Seats in the state and year that aren’t usable to compute marginality or contestation, because of something unusual about the race.
  • Percent With 5% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent With 10% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of U.S. House races that were uncontested in the state and year.
  • U.S. Senate 1 Margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • U.S. Senate 2 Margin: This is only recorded when a second election to the U.S. Senate was held because of a Senator not completing their term. For such elections, this is the difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • President margin: difference between the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the most votes in a state minus the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the second most votes in a state.
  • Governor margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the gubernatorial election in a state with the gubernatorial candidate receiving the second most votes.

State Senate

State Senate competitiveness, Mississippi
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1971 52 100 96.2 0 0 0 0 71.2 92.6 51.9 96.2 0
1975 52 100 96.2 0 1.9 3.8 0 76.9 100 65.4 100 100
1979 52 100 92.3 0 1.9 3.8 0 53.8 96.2 50 96 100
1983 52 100 96.2 1.9 0 2 0 71.2 100 67.3 100 100
1987 52 100 86.5 0 7.7 11.5 0 69.2 91.7 69.2 94.1 50
1991 52 100 82.7 0 1.9 1.9 0 67.3 94.3 67.3 96.7 80
1992 52 100 75 0 1.9 7.7 0 42.3 92.9 80.8 93.5 90.9
1995 52 100 65.4 0 7.7 11.5 0 36.5 90.7 82.7 96.4 80
1999 52 100 65.4 0 5.8 9.6 0 65.4 100 80.8 100 100
2003 52 100 57.7 0 3.8 11.5 3.8 38 92.3 78 100 82.4
2007 52 100 51.9 0 3.8 7.7 0 53.8 92.1 73.1 95 87.5
2011 52 100 42.3 0 5.8 7.7 0 53.8 94.4 69.2 90 100

State House

State House competitiveness, Mississippi
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1971 122 100 97.5 0 1.6 4.1 0 68 97.4 63.9 98.7 100
1975 122 100 96.7 0 0.8 1.6 0 73.8 98.5 55.7 98.5 100
1979 122 100 95.1 0 6.6 11.5 0 57.4 97.1 56.6 97 100
1983 122 100 95.1 0.8 1.7 5 1.6 70 97.4 65 100 50
1987 122 100 92.6 0 2.5 7.4 0 73.8 96.5 69.7 97.5 75
1991 122 100 80.3 0 4.9 10.7 0 63.9 96.6 73 97.3 92.9
1992 122 100 76.2 0 3.3 8.2 0.8 62 95.9 81 94.8 100
1995 122 100 70.5 0 2.5 6.6 0 62.3 96.2 86.9 96 96.4
1999 122 100 70.5 0 4.1 8.2 0 68 96.7 74.6 98.4 91.7
2003 122 100 63.1 0 0.8 5.7 0 59.8 97.9 78.7 97 100
2007 122 100 61.5 0 4.1 7.4 0 60.7 96.8 77.9 96.7 96.9
2011 122 100 48.4 0 7.4 11.5 0 61.5 90.7 79.5 89.1 92.9

Up ballot

Up ballot competitiveness, Mississippi
Year U.S. House Seats % Not usable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Uncontested U.S. Senate 1 margin U.S. Senate 2 margin President margin Governor margin
1912 88.3
1916 90
1920 71.4
1924 84.4
1928 64.2
1932 92.9
1936 94.5
1939 100
1940 100 91.6
1942 100
1943 100
1944 87.1
1946 7 0 0 0 100 100
1947 100 100
1948 7 0 0 0 100 100 79.3
1950 7 0 0 0 71.4
1951 100
1952 6 0 0 0 66.7 100 20.9
1954 6 0 0 0 100 100
1955 100
1956 6 0 0 0 100 40.8
1958 6 0 0 0 100 100
1959 100
1960 6 0 0 0 66.7 83.6 3.5
1962 5 0 0 0 100
1963 23.9
1964 5 0 0 0 80 100 74.3
1966 5 0 0 0 40 41.9
1967 40.5
1968 5 0 0 0 80 46.8
1970 5 0 0 0 80 100
1971 54
1972 5 0 20 20 40 20.1 59.9
1974 5 0 0 0 40
1975 7.2
1976 5 0 0 0 20 100 1.9
1978 5 0 0 0 20 17.3
1979 22.1
1980 5 0 0 0 20 1.4
1982 5 0 20 40 20 28.4
1983 17.3
1984 5 0 20 20 40 21.9 24.6
1986 5 0 20 20 20
1987 6.9
1988 5 0 0 0 0 7.8 21
1990 5 0 0 0 20 100
1991 3.3
1992 5 0 0 0 0 9.9
1994 5 0 0 0 0 37.6
1995 11.1
1996 5 0 0 0 0 44.3 5.5
1998 5 0 0 20 40
1999 1.1
2000 5 0 0 0 0 35.2 17.2
2002 4 0 0 0 0 100
2003 6.9
2004 4 0 0 0 50 19.8
2006 4 0 0 0 25 29.2
2007 15.8
2008 4 0 0 0 0 22.9 9.9 13.3
2010 4 0 0 25 0
2012 4 0 0 0 25 17 11.6
2014 4 0 0 0 25 22.5

Navigation map

Click on a different state below for more detailed data on electoral competitiveness.
http://ballotpedia.org/Competitiveness in STATE state legislative elections