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Electoral competitiveness in Missouri, 1912-2014

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Published in April 2015

The 2014 national election continued the decline in U.S. electoral competitiveness that has occurred since 1972. The decline of electoral competitiveness that has been seen on the national stage, has also been seen in states. For example, Missouri saw an increase in the number of uncontested elections from 1968 to 2014.

This page contains electoral competitiveness information at various levels of government in this state up to 2014. For more recent information about state legislative competitiveness nationwide, click here.

The data presented below are part of a larger project on electoral competitiveness, the full report is available in the table to the right. The images below illustrate the changes in the competitiveness of elections in Missouri from 1912 through 2014. The data used to generate these graphs is available in the tables below those images.

Background

Since 1972, electoral competitiveness has tended to decrease across the United States. During that time, people who are members of the same political party have become more likely to live in the same area as one another than in the past. Nationally, the rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness is declining. On the national level, the percentage of state legislative elections won by 5 percent or less was nearly the lowest in the 1972 to 2014 period. In an absolute sense, the incidence of such elections was very low. Only 4.9 percent of U.S. residents in districts with elections saw their election won by 5 percent or less. Similarly, more Americans lived in areas with uncontested elections than ever before in the time period studied: 36.7 percent. State legislative primaries were often found to be won by wide margins or not contested at all. The rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness in elections in Missouri

Table explanation

The columns in the tables below for both state senates and state houses are as follow:

  • Seats: number of seats in the state legislative chamber.
  • Percent Seats Up: percent of seats in the state legislative chamber that are up in a particular year for the November election.
  • Percent Won By Dem: the percent of seats in the state legislature that were won by a Democrat.
  • Percent Unusable: percent of seats for the state legislative chamber that weren’t usable to compute whether a race was marginal or not for this chamber in this year because of missing data. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent with 5% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent with 10% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Unusable Other: percent of seats that have missing data that prevent the computation of whether an incumbent won or lost, whether an incumbent ran or not, or whether a race was uncontested. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of races in a chamber that are uncontested.
  • Percent Incumbent Win: percent of incumbents who ran for a state chamber in a particular year who won.
  • Percent With Incumbent: number of incumbents running for reelection for a state-chamber in one year, divided by the number of seats that are up for election for that state-chamber, multiplied by 100.

The columns for the “Up ballot” tab are as follows:

  • U.S. House Seats: number of U.S. House Seats that a state was apportioned in the year in question.
  • Percent Not Usable: percent of U.S. House Seats in the state and year that aren’t usable to compute marginality or contestation, because of something unusual about the race.
  • Percent With 5% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent With 10% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of U.S. House races that were uncontested in the state and year.
  • U.S. Senate 1 Margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • U.S. Senate 2 Margin: This is only recorded when a second election to the U.S. Senate was held because of a Senator not completing their term. For such elections, this is the difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • President margin: difference between the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the most votes in a state minus the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the second most votes in a state.
  • Governor margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the gubernatorial election in a state with the gubernatorial candidate receiving the second most votes.

State Senate

State Senate competitiveness, Missouri
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1968 34 50 82.4 0 5.9 17.6 0 29.4 100 88.2 100 100
1970 34 50 64.7 0 17.6 23.5 0 17.6 83.3 70.6 100 66.7
1972 34 50 58.8 0 5.9 5.9 0 52.9 83.3 70.6 80 100
1974 34 50 76.5 0 11.8 17.6 0 35.3 83.3 70.6 100 50
1976 34 50 64.7 0 5.9 11.8 0 47.1 100 41.2 100 100
1978 34 50 70.6 0 11.8 29.4 0 11.8 100 70.6 100 100
1980 34 50 70.6 0 0 0 0 41.2 100 82.4 100 100
1982 34 50 58.8 0 0 0 0 29.4 88.9 52.9 85.7 100
1984 34 50 64.7 0 5.9 5.9 0 47.1 92.3 76.5 87.5 100
1986 34 50 58.8 0 0 5.9 0 47.1 100 94.1 100 100
1988 34 50 70.6 0 5.9 5.9 0 47.1 100 88.2 100 100
1990 34 52.9 61.1 0 5.6 11.1 0 27.8 92.9 77.8 100 80
1992 34 50 58.8 0 0 5.9 0 41.2 100 70.6 100 100
1994 34 50 52.9 0 11.8 17.6 0 23.5 87.5 47.1 100 66.7
1996 34 50 58.8 0 0 0 0 17.6 100 82.4 100 100
1998 34 52.9 44.4 0 0 5.6 0 16.7 93.8 88.9 87.5 100
2000 34 50 52.9 0 5.9 17.6 0 41.2 91.7 70.6 87.5 100
2002 34 50 29.4 0 11.8 17.6 0 29.4 100 11.8 100 100
2004 34 50 35.3 0 17.6 35.3 0 11.8 100 17.6 100
2006 34 50 41.2 0 11.8 17.6 0 11.8 100 58.8 100 100
2008 34 50 23.5 0 11.8 23.5 0 29.4 90 58.8 75 100
2010 34 50 23.5 0 5.9 11.8 0 35.3 66.7 35.3 50 100
2012 34 50 35.3 0 5.9 17.6 0 52.9 80 29.4 80
2014 34 50 17.6 0 5.9 11.8 0 58.8 100 64.7 100 100

State House

State House competitiveness, Missouri
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1968 163 100 66.9 0 9.8 18.4 0 9.8 93.8 89.6 97.8 86.8
1970 163 100 68.7 0 7.4 17.8 0 28.2 92.8 84.7 96.6 85.7
1972 163 100 59.5 0 9.2 19.6 0 21.5 87.7 65 86.1 91.2
1974 163 100 69.3 0 7.4 14.7 0 39.3 94.2 84 100 84.9
1976 163 100 68.1 0 4.3 10.4 0 48.5 97.5 74.2 98.8 94.9
1978 163 100 71.8 0 5.5 9.2 0 30.7 95.4 80.4 98.9 88.1
1980 163 100 68.1 0 6.1 8.6 0 46 94.3 86.5 93.1 97.5
1982 163 100 67.5 1.2 3.7 9.9 0 40.5 96.7 73.6 98.8 91.4
1984 163 100 65.6 0 3.1 7.4 0 64.4 97.8 84.7 96.8 100
1986 163 100 68.1 0 4.9 9.8 0 48.5 97.8 84.7 98.9 95.6
1988 163 100 64.4 0 3.1 6.1 0 52.8 98.6 84.7 97.9 100
1990 163 100 60.1 0 6.7 11 0 55.2 90.9 87.7 91.4 90
1992 163 100 62 0 8 15.3 0 39.9 92.9 77.3 98.6 84.9
1994 163 100 53.4 0 2.5 9.8 0 38.7 94.5 78.5 90.8 100
1996 163 100 54 0 5.5 12.3 0 35 97.1 85.9 97.3 97
1998 163 100 53.4 0 6.1 11 0 42.3 97.9 85.9 96 100
2000 163 100 53.4 0 4.9 8 0 46.6 96.7 75.5 98.5 94.7
2002 163 100 44.8 0 10.4 16 0 28.2 95.7 42.9 94.6 97
2004 163 100 40.5 0 6.7 14.1 0 39.9 96.9 77.9 94.3 98.6
2006 163 100 43.6 0 10.4 14.7 0 36.2 98.5 81.6 100 97.5
2008 163 100 45.4 0 4.9 9.2 0 45.4 98.3 73.6 100 97.1
2010 163 100 35 0 4.3 8.6 0 39.9 89.2 57.1 78.3 100
2012 163 100 32.5 0 9.2 12.3 0 48.5 95.4 66.9 93.9 96.1
2014 163 100 28.2 0 3.7 6.7 0 47.9 96.3 82.2 88.6 100

Up ballot

Up ballot competitiveness, Missouri
Year U.S. House Seats % Not usable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Uncontested U.S. Senate 1 margin U.S. Senate 2 margin President margin Governor margin
1912 22.8
1916 3.7
1920 11.7
1924 6.2
1928 11.5
1932 29
1936 22.8 14.6
1940 2.4 4.8 0.2
1944 0.1 2.9 2
1946 13 0 30.8 61.5 0 5.6
1948 13 0 7.7 15.4 0 16.7 14.3
1950 13 0 23.1 53.8 7.7 7.2
1952 11 0 18.2 45.5 0 8.1 1.6 5.2
1954 11 0 9.1 36.4 0
1956 11 0 45.5 54.5 18.2 12.8 0.2 4.1
1958 11 0 9.1 18.2 0 32.9
1960 11 0 9.1 36.4 9.1 6.3 0.5 16.1
1962 10 0 0 10 0 9.1
1964 10 0 10 20 0 33.1 28.1 24.1
1966 10 0 0 0 0
1968 10 0 10 40 0 2.1 1.3 21.6
1970 10 10 0 11.1 10 2.9
1972 10 0 0 10 0 24.7 10.5
1974 10 0 10 10 0 20.9
1976 10 0 10 10 0 14.5 3.7 0.7
1978 10 0 0 0 0
1980 10 0 0 0 0 4.3 7.1 5.6
1982 9 0 11.1 33.3 0 1.7
1984 9 0 11.1 22.2 11.1 20 13.3
1986 9 0 11.1 22.2 11.1 5.3
1988 9 0 0 11.1 0 36.1 4 29.8
1990 9 0 33.3 33.3 0
1992 9 0 22.2 22.2 0 7.2 13 17.4
1994 9 0 0 11.1 0 25.2
1996 9 0 11.1 11.1 0 7.1 17.1
1998 9 0 0 0 0 9.2
2000 9 0 11.1 11.1 0 2.1 3.4 0.9
2002 9 0 0 0 0 1.1
2004 9 0 0 11.1 0 13.4 7.2 3
2006 9 0 0 0 0 2.3
2008 9 0 11.1 11.1 11.1 0.1 19
2010 9 0 11.1 33.3 11.1 14.3
2012 8 0 0 0 0 16.7 9.6 12.6
2014 8 0 0 12.5 0

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