Electoral competitiveness in Montana, 1912-2014

Competitiveness in state legislatures
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Published in April 2015

The 2014 national election continued the decline in U.S. electoral competitiveness that has occurred since 1972. The decline of electoral competitiveness that has been seen on the national stage, has also been seen in states. For example, the percentage of marginal elections for the Montana House of Representatives has decreased from 46.1 percent in 1968 to 30 percent in 2014.

This page contains electoral competitiveness information at various levels of government in this state up to 2014. For more recent information about state legislative competitiveness nationwide, click here.

The data presented below are part of a larger project on electoral competitiveness, the full report is available in the table to the right. The images below illustrate the changes in the competitiveness of elections in Montana from 1912 through 2014. The data used to generate these graphs is available in the tables below those images.

Background

Since 1972, electoral competitiveness has tended to decrease across the United States. During that time, people who are members of the same political party have become more likely to live in the same area as one another than in the past. Nationally, the rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness is declining. On the national level, the percentage of state legislative elections won by 5 percent or less was nearly the lowest in the 1972 to 2014 period. In an absolute sense, the incidence of such elections was very low. Only 4.9 percent of U.S. residents in districts with elections saw their election won by 5 percent or less. Similarly, more Americans lived in areas with uncontested elections than ever before in the time period studied: 36.7 percent. State legislative primaries were often found to be won by wide margins or not contested at all. The rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness in elections in Montana

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  [Ballot_StateGraph01_Marg_Stateno26Montana2015_04_23.png|Marginal Elections]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph02_Uncont_Stateno26Montana2015_04_23.png|Uncontested Elections]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph03_Inc_Stateno26Montana2015_04_23.png|Incumbent Win Rates]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph04_US_HS_Stateno26Montana2015_04_23.png|Competitiveness in U.S. House Seats]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph05_UpBallot_Stateno26Montana2015_04_23.png|Margin of Victory in Up Ballot Elections]

Table explanation

The columns in the tables below for both state senates and state houses are as follow:

• Seats: number of seats in the state legislative chamber.
• Percent Seats Up: percent of seats in the state legislative chamber that are up in a particular year for the November election.
• Percent Won By Dem: the percent of seats in the state legislature that were won by a Democrat.
• Percent Unusable: percent of seats for the state legislative chamber that weren’t usable to compute whether a race was marginal or not for this chamber in this year because of missing data. This column usually says “0.”
• Percent with 5% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 5% or less.
• Percent with 10% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 10% or less.
• Percent Unusable Other: percent of seats that have missing data that prevent the computation of whether an incumbent won or lost, whether an incumbent ran or not, or whether a race was uncontested. This column usually says “0.”
• Percent Uncontested: percent of races in a chamber that are uncontested.
• Percent Incumbent Win: percent of incumbents who ran for a state chamber in a particular year who won.
• Percent With Incumbent: number of incumbents running for reelection for a state-chamber in one year, divided by the number of seats that are up for election for that state-chamber, multiplied by 100.

The columns for the “Up ballot” tab are as follows:

• U.S. House Seats: number of U.S. House Seats that a state was apportioned in the year in question.
• Percent Not Usable: percent of U.S. House Seats in the state and year that aren’t usable to compute marginality or contestation, because of something unusual about the race.
• Percent With 5% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 5% or less.
• Percent With 10% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 10% or less.
• Percent Uncontested: percent of U.S. House races that were uncontested in the state and year.
• U.S. Senate 1 Margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
• U.S. Senate 2 Margin: This is only recorded when a second election to the U.S. Senate was held because of a Senator not completing their term. For such elections, this is the difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
• President margin: difference between the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the most votes in a state minus the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the second most votes in a state.
• Governor margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the gubernatorial election in a state with the gubernatorial candidate receiving the second most votes.

State Senate

State Senate competitiveness, Montana
Year	Seats	% Seats up	% Won by Dem	% Unusable	% With 5% margin	% With 10% margin	% Unusuable other	% Uncontested	% Incumbent win	% With incumbent	% of Dem inc winning	% of Repub inc winning
1968	55	49.1	55.6	0	11.1	29.6	0	14.8	71.4	77.8	75	66.7
1970	55	50.9	53.6	0	21.4	35.7	0	17.9	85.7	75	90	81.8
1972	50	70	54.3	0	17.1	31.4	0	25.7	85.7	80	88.2	81.8
1974	50	100	60	0	14	32	0	16	64	50	66.7	61.5
1976	50	50	40	0	16	24	0	20	80	80	66.7	100
1978	50	54	55.6	0	22.2	29.6	0	25.9	80	74.1	80	80
1980	50	50	36	0	20	36	0	36	86.7	60	83.3	88.9
1982	50	52	61.5	0	11.5	30.8	0	23.1	83.3	69.2	100	72.7
1984	50	50	52	0	12	32	0	16	82.4	68	85.7	80
1986	50	50	48	0	8	36	0	28	77.8	72	70	87.5
1988	50	50	44	0	12	28	0	20	95	80	90	100
1990	50	50	72	0	24	44	0	16	58.8	68	87.5	37.5
1992	50	52	46.2	0	15.4	23.1	0	23.1	78.9	73.1	75	81.8
1994	50	56	28.6	0	3.6	10.7	0	21.4	78.6	50	66.7	100
1996	50	50	36	0	8	12	0	24	94.4	72	87.5	100
1998	50	52	38.5	0	7.7	7.7	0	53.8	100	65.4	100	100
2000	50	52	38.5	0	15.4	15.4	0	34.6	91.7	46.2	100	87.5
2002	50	50	44	0	4	16	0	28	83.3	24	100	75
2004	50	50	64	0	12	16	0	32	100	44	100	100
2006	50	50	36	0	8	8	0	8	100	60	100	100
2008	50	50	56	0	8	24	0	28	90.9	44	85.7	100
2010	50	52	34.6	0	7.7	15.4	0	23.1	88.9	34.6	100	83.3
2012	50	52	50	0	11.5	19.2	0	11.5	90.9	42.3	83.3	100
2014	50	50	36	0	8	24	0	8	85.7	28	66.7	100

State House

State House competitiveness, Montana
Year	Seats	% Seats up	% Won by Dem	% Unusable	% With 5% margin	% With 10% margin	% Unusuable other	% Uncontested	% Incumbent win	% With incumbent	% of Dem inc winning	% of Repub inc winning
1968	104	100	44.2	0	16.3	29.8	0	17.3	88.5	75	93.5	85.1
1970	104	100	47.1	0	13.5	31.7	0	17.3	81.3	76.9	84.8	80.4
1972	100	100	54	0	24	36	0	17	81.3	75	85.4	76.5
1974	100	100	68	0	15	34	0	12	70.2	57	84.4	52
1976	100	100	57	0	22	36	0	23	79.7	74	76	87.5
1978	100	100	55	0	9	26	0	29	86.7	83	86.7	86.8
1980	100	100	41	0	17	30	0	22	85.5	76	81.1	92.1
1982	100	100	55	0	11	22	0	24	83.3	78	93.8	76.1
1984	100	100	50	0	13	27	0	22	87	77	86	88.2
1986	100	100	49	0	11	14	0	36	92.1	89	90.7	93.5
1988	100	100	52	0	8	20	0	26	90.8	76	89.7	91.9
1990	100	100	61	0	12	27	0	27	82.7	81	93.2	70.3
1992	100	100	47	0	13	23	0	27	84	81	76	96.8
1994	100	100	33	0	10	19	0	22	89.6	67	78.6	97.4
1996	100	100	35	0	7	18	0	35	93.3	89	96.4	91.8
1998	100	100	40	0	9	18	0	41	89.9	69	91.7	88.9
2000	100	100	41	0	15	25	0	17	90.7	54	86.4	93.8
2002	100	100	47	0	10	21	0	24	90.5	74	100	83.3
2004	100	100	50	0	17	21	0	19	91.2	68	86.8	96.7
2006	100	100	49	0	8	18	0	16	92	75	94.4	89.7
2008	100	100	50	0	9	17	0	15	96.8	62	100	93.8
2010	100	100	32	0	8	17	0	28	85.9	64	71	100
2012	100	100	39	0	7	18	0	20	89.4	66	100	85.4
2014	100	100	41	0	12	18	0	15	91.2	68	92.6	90.2

Up ballot

Up ballot competitiveness, Montana
Year	U.S. House Seats	% Not usable	% With 5% margin	% With 10% margin	% Uncontested	U.S. Senate 1 margin	U.S. Senate 2 margin	President margin	Governor margin
1912								10.9
1916								20.4
1920								31.2
1924								5.7
1928								18.1
1932								24
1936								43	2.9
1940						46.9		18.8	2
1942						0.7
1944								9.4	13.2
1946	2	0	0	50	0	8.2
1948	2	0	50	50	0	14		10.3	11.9
1950	2	0	0	0	0
1952	2	0	50	50	0	2.2		19.4	1.9
1954	2	0	50	50	0	0.8
1956	2	0	50	50	0			14.3	2.7
1958	2	0	0	0	0	52.4
1960	2	0	50	100	0	1.5		2.5	10.2
1962	2	0	0	50	0
1964	2	0	0	100	0	29		18.5	2.6
1966	2	0	50	50	0	6.3
1968	2	0	0	50	0			9.8	12.8
1970	2	0	50	50	0	21.1
1972	2	0	0	50	0	3.9		21	8.2
1974	2	0	0	50	0
1976	2	0	0	0	0	28.3		7.6	25.6
1978	2	0	0	0	0	11.4
1980	2	0	0	0	0			27.3	10.7
1982	2	0	0	50	0	13.3
1984	2	0	0	0	0	16.6		22.6	45.4
1986	2	0	0	50	0
1988	2	0	0	0	0	3.7		6	5.9
1990	2	0	0	0	0	39.7
1992	1	0	100	100	0			3.4	2.7
1994	1	0	0	100	0	24.7
1996	1	0	0	100	0	5.2		3.4	58.3
1998	1	0	0	100	0
2000	1	0	0	100	0	3.4		27.3	4
2002	1	0	0	0	0	32.8
2004	1	0	0	0	0			21	4.6
2006	1	0	0	0	0	0.9
2008	1	0	0	0	0	45.8		2.3	33.6
2010	1	0	0	0	0
2012	1	0	0	0	0	4		14.1	1.6
2014	1	0	0	0	0	18.1

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