Electoral competitiveness in Montana, 1912-2014

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Published in April 2015

The 2014 national election continued the decline in U.S. electoral competitiveness that has occurred since 1972. The decline of electoral competitiveness that has been seen on the national stage, has also been seen in states. For example, the percentage of marginal elections for the Montana House of Representatives has decreased from 46.1 percent in 1968 to 30 percent in 2014.

This page contains electoral competitiveness information at various levels of government in this state up to 2014. For more recent information about state legislative competitiveness nationwide, click here.

The data presented below are part of a larger project on electoral competitiveness, the full report is available in the table to the right. The images below illustrate the changes in the competitiveness of elections in Montana from 1912 through 2014. The data used to generate these graphs is available in the tables below those images.

Background

Since 1972, electoral competitiveness has tended to decrease across the United States. During that time, people who are members of the same political party have become more likely to live in the same area as one another than in the past. Nationally, the rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness is declining. On the national level, the percentage of state legislative elections won by 5 percent or less was nearly the lowest in the 1972 to 2014 period. In an absolute sense, the incidence of such elections was very low. Only 4.9 percent of U.S. residents in districts with elections saw their election won by 5 percent or less. Similarly, more Americans lived in areas with uncontested elections than ever before in the time period studied: 36.7 percent. State legislative primaries were often found to be won by wide margins or not contested at all. The rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness in elections in Montana

Table explanation

The columns in the tables below for both state senates and state houses are as follow:

  • Seats: number of seats in the state legislative chamber.
  • Percent Seats Up: percent of seats in the state legislative chamber that are up in a particular year for the November election.
  • Percent Won By Dem: the percent of seats in the state legislature that were won by a Democrat.
  • Percent Unusable: percent of seats for the state legislative chamber that weren’t usable to compute whether a race was marginal or not for this chamber in this year because of missing data. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent with 5% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent with 10% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Unusable Other: percent of seats that have missing data that prevent the computation of whether an incumbent won or lost, whether an incumbent ran or not, or whether a race was uncontested. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of races in a chamber that are uncontested.
  • Percent Incumbent Win: percent of incumbents who ran for a state chamber in a particular year who won.
  • Percent With Incumbent: number of incumbents running for reelection for a state-chamber in one year, divided by the number of seats that are up for election for that state-chamber, multiplied by 100.

The columns for the “Up ballot” tab are as follows:

  • U.S. House Seats: number of U.S. House Seats that a state was apportioned in the year in question.
  • Percent Not Usable: percent of U.S. House Seats in the state and year that aren’t usable to compute marginality or contestation, because of something unusual about the race.
  • Percent With 5% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent With 10% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of U.S. House races that were uncontested in the state and year.
  • U.S. Senate 1 Margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • U.S. Senate 2 Margin: This is only recorded when a second election to the U.S. Senate was held because of a Senator not completing their term. For such elections, this is the difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • President margin: difference between the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the most votes in a state minus the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the second most votes in a state.
  • Governor margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the gubernatorial election in a state with the gubernatorial candidate receiving the second most votes.

State Senate

State Senate competitiveness, Montana
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1968 55 49.1 55.6 0 11.1 29.6 0 14.8 71.4 77.8 75 66.7
1970 55 50.9 53.6 0 21.4 35.7 0 17.9 85.7 75 90 81.8
1972 50 70 54.3 0 17.1 31.4 0 25.7 85.7 80 88.2 81.8
1974 50 100 60 0 14 32 0 16 64 50 66.7 61.5
1976 50 50 40 0 16 24 0 20 80 80 66.7 100
1978 50 54 55.6 0 22.2 29.6 0 25.9 80 74.1 80 80
1980 50 50 36 0 20 36 0 36 86.7 60 83.3 88.9
1982 50 52 61.5 0 11.5 30.8 0 23.1 83.3 69.2 100 72.7
1984 50 50 52 0 12 32 0 16 82.4 68 85.7 80
1986 50 50 48 0 8 36 0 28 77.8 72 70 87.5
1988 50 50 44 0 12 28 0 20 95 80 90 100
1990 50 50 72 0 24 44 0 16 58.8 68 87.5 37.5
1992 50 52 46.2 0 15.4 23.1 0 23.1 78.9 73.1 75 81.8
1994 50 56 28.6 0 3.6 10.7 0 21.4 78.6 50 66.7 100
1996 50 50 36 0 8 12 0 24 94.4 72 87.5 100
1998 50 52 38.5 0 7.7 7.7 0 53.8 100 65.4 100 100
2000 50 52 38.5 0 15.4 15.4 0 34.6 91.7 46.2 100 87.5
2002 50 50 44 0 4 16 0 28 83.3 24 100 75
2004 50 50 64 0 12 16 0 32 100 44 100 100
2006 50 50 36 0 8 8 0 8 100 60 100 100
2008 50 50 56 0 8 24 0 28 90.9 44 85.7 100
2010 50 52 34.6 0 7.7 15.4 0 23.1 88.9 34.6 100 83.3
2012 50 52 50 0 11.5 19.2 0 11.5 90.9 42.3 83.3 100
2014 50 50 36 0 8 24 0 8 85.7 28 66.7 100

State House

State House competitiveness, Montana
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1968 104 100 44.2 0 16.3 29.8 0 17.3 88.5 75 93.5 85.1
1970 104 100 47.1 0 13.5 31.7 0 17.3 81.3 76.9 84.8 80.4
1972 100 100 54 0 24 36 0 17 81.3 75 85.4 76.5
1974 100 100 68 0 15 34 0 12 70.2 57 84.4 52
1976 100 100 57 0 22 36 0 23 79.7 74 76 87.5
1978 100 100 55 0 9 26 0 29 86.7 83 86.7 86.8
1980 100 100 41 0 17 30 0 22 85.5 76 81.1 92.1
1982 100 100 55 0 11 22 0 24 83.3 78 93.8 76.1
1984 100 100 50 0 13 27 0 22 87 77 86 88.2
1986 100 100 49 0 11 14 0 36 92.1 89 90.7 93.5
1988 100 100 52 0 8 20 0 26 90.8 76 89.7 91.9
1990 100 100 61 0 12 27 0 27 82.7 81 93.2 70.3
1992 100 100 47 0 13 23 0 27 84 81 76 96.8
1994 100 100 33 0 10 19 0 22 89.6 67 78.6 97.4
1996 100 100 35 0 7 18 0 35 93.3 89 96.4 91.8
1998 100 100 40 0 9 18 0 41 89.9 69 91.7 88.9
2000 100 100 41 0 15 25 0 17 90.7 54 86.4 93.8
2002 100 100 47 0 10 21 0 24 90.5 74 100 83.3
2004 100 100 50 0 17 21 0 19 91.2 68 86.8 96.7
2006 100 100 49 0 8 18 0 16 92 75 94.4 89.7
2008 100 100 50 0 9 17 0 15 96.8 62 100 93.8
2010 100 100 32 0 8 17 0 28 85.9 64 71 100
2012 100 100 39 0 7 18 0 20 89.4 66 100 85.4
2014 100 100 41 0 12 18 0 15 91.2 68 92.6 90.2

Up ballot

Up ballot competitiveness, Montana
Year U.S. House Seats % Not usable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Uncontested U.S. Senate 1 margin U.S. Senate 2 margin President margin Governor margin
1912 10.9
1916 20.4
1920 31.2
1924 5.7
1928 18.1
1932 24
1936 43 2.9
1940 46.9 18.8 2
1942 0.7
1944 9.4 13.2
1946 2 0 0 50 0 8.2
1948 2 0 50 50 0 14 10.3 11.9
1950 2 0 0 0 0
1952 2 0 50 50 0 2.2 19.4 1.9
1954 2 0 50 50 0 0.8
1956 2 0 50 50 0 14.3 2.7
1958 2 0 0 0 0 52.4
1960 2 0 50 100 0 1.5 2.5 10.2
1962 2 0 0 50 0
1964 2 0 0 100 0 29 18.5 2.6
1966 2 0 50 50 0 6.3
1968 2 0 0 50 0 9.8 12.8
1970 2 0 50 50 0 21.1
1972 2 0 0 50 0 3.9 21 8.2
1974 2 0 0 50 0
1976 2 0 0 0 0 28.3 7.6 25.6
1978 2 0 0 0 0 11.4
1980 2 0 0 0 0 27.3 10.7
1982 2 0 0 50 0 13.3
1984 2 0 0 0 0 16.6 22.6 45.4
1986 2 0 0 50 0
1988 2 0 0 0 0 3.7 6 5.9
1990 2 0 0 0 0 39.7
1992 1 0 100 100 0 3.4 2.7
1994 1 0 0 100 0 24.7
1996 1 0 0 100 0 5.2 3.4 58.3
1998 1 0 0 100 0
2000 1 0 0 100 0 3.4 27.3 4
2002 1 0 0 0 0 32.8
2004 1 0 0 0 0 21 4.6
2006 1 0 0 0 0 0.9
2008 1 0 0 0 0 45.8 2.3 33.6
2010 1 0 0 0 0
2012 1 0 0 0 0 4 14.1 1.6
2014 1 0 0 0 0 18.1

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