Electoral competitiveness in Nevada, 1912-2014

Competitiveness in state legislatures
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Published in April 2015

The 2014 national election continued the decline in U.S. electoral competitiveness that has occurred since 1972. The decline of electoral competitiveness that has been seen on the national stage, has also been seen in states. For example, the percentage of Nevada State Senate elections won by 10 percent or less decreased from 30 percent in 1968 to 9.1 percent in 2014.

This page contains electoral competitiveness information at various levels of government in this state up to 2014. For more recent information about state legislative competitiveness nationwide, click here.

The data presented below are part of a larger project on electoral competitiveness, the full report is available in the table to the right. The images below illustrate the changes in the competitiveness of elections in Nevada from 1912 through 2014. The data used to generate these graphs is available in the tables below those images.

Background

Since 1972, electoral competitiveness has tended to decrease across the United States. During that time, people who are members of the same political party have become more likely to live in the same area as one another than in the past. Nationally, the rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness is declining. On the national level, the percentage of state legislative elections won by 5 percent or less was nearly the lowest in the 1972 to 2014 period. In an absolute sense, the incidence of such elections was very low. Only 4.9 percent of U.S. residents in districts with elections saw their election won by 5 percent or less. Similarly, more Americans lived in areas with uncontested elections than ever before in the time period studied: 36.7 percent. State legislative primaries were often found to be won by wide margins or not contested at all. The rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness in elections in Nevada

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  [Ballot_StateGraph01_Marg_Stateno28Nevada2015_04_23.png|Marginal Elections]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph02_Uncont_Stateno28Nevada2015_04_23.png|Uncontested Elections]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph03_Inc_Stateno28Nevada2015_04_23.png|Incumbent Win Rates]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph04_US_HS_Stateno28Nevada2015_04_23.png|Competitiveness in U.S. House Seats]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph05_UpBallot_Stateno28Nevada2015_04_23.png|Margin of Victory in Up Ballot Elections]

Table explanation

The columns in the tables below for both state senates and state houses are as follow:

• Seats: number of seats in the state legislative chamber.
• Percent Seats Up: percent of seats in the state legislative chamber that are up in a particular year for the November election.
• Percent Won By Dem: the percent of seats in the state legislature that were won by a Democrat.
• Percent Unusable: percent of seats for the state legislative chamber that weren’t usable to compute whether a race was marginal or not for this chamber in this year because of missing data. This column usually says “0.”
• Percent with 5% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 5% or less.
• Percent with 10% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 10% or less.
• Percent Unusable Other: percent of seats that have missing data that prevent the computation of whether an incumbent won or lost, whether an incumbent ran or not, or whether a race was uncontested. This column usually says “0.”
• Percent Uncontested: percent of races in a chamber that are uncontested.
• Percent Incumbent Win: percent of incumbents who ran for a state chamber in a particular year who won.
• Percent With Incumbent: number of incumbents running for reelection for a state-chamber in one year, divided by the number of seats that are up for election for that state-chamber, multiplied by 100.

The columns for the “Up ballot” tab are as follows:

• U.S. House Seats: number of U.S. House Seats that a state was apportioned in the year in question.
• Percent Not Usable: percent of U.S. House Seats in the state and year that aren’t usable to compute marginality or contestation, because of something unusual about the race.
• Percent With 5% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 5% or less.
• Percent With 10% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 10% or less.
• Percent Uncontested: percent of U.S. House races that were uncontested in the state and year.
• U.S. Senate 1 Margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
• U.S. Senate 2 Margin: This is only recorded when a second election to the U.S. Senate was held because of a Senator not completing their term. For such elections, this is the difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
• President margin: difference between the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the most votes in a state minus the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the second most votes in a state.
• Governor margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the gubernatorial election in a state with the gubernatorial candidate receiving the second most votes.

State Senate

State Senate competitiveness, Nevada
Year	Seats	% Seats up	% Won by Dem	% Unusable	% With 5% margin	% With 10% margin	% Unusuable other	% Uncontested	% Incumbent win	% With incumbent	% of Dem inc winning	% of Repub inc winning
1968	20	50	70	0	10	30	0	30	87.5	80	83.3	100
1970	20	50	60	0	10	30	0	40	66.7	90	66.7	66.7
1972	20	55	81.8	0	0	18.2	0	27.3	83.3	54.5	100	50
1974	20	50	90	0	30	30	0	10	83.3	60	100	50
1976	20	50	80	0	10	10	0	20	100	60	100	100
1978	20	50	70	0	20	30	0	0	83.3	60	80	100
1980	20	50	80	0	10	10	0	40	100	80	100	100
1982	21	52.4	81.8	0	9.1	9.1	0	36.4	100	27.3	100	100
1984	21	47.6	40	0	20	30	0	10	100	40	100	100
1986	21	52.4	45.5	0	9.1	9.1	0	9.1	100	54.5	100	100
1988	21	52.4	36.4	0	9.1	9.1	0	36.4	100	72.7	100	100
1990	21	52.4	63.6	0	27.3	54.5	0	0	70	90.9	100	57.1
1992	21	57.1	41.7	0	16.7	25	0	25	87.5	66.7	75	100
1994	21	52.4	36.4	0	18.2	45.5	0	0	75	72.7	50	100
1996	21	47.6	50	0	10	20	0	10	88.9	90	100	83.3
1998	21	52.4	36.4	0	9.1	27.3	0	27.3	88.9	81.8	66.7	100
2000	21	47.6	50	0	0	0	0	20	100	100	100	100
2002	21	52.4	36.4	0	0	0	0	27.3	100	63.6	100	100
2004	21	47.6	50	0	0	10	0	0	85.7	70	100	75
2006	21	52.4	45.5	0	9.1	18.2	0	36.4	90.9	100	100	85.7
2008	21	47.6	70	0	10	20	0	20	77.8	90	100	60
2010	21	52.4	36.4	0	9.1	18.2	0	9.1	50	18.2	0	100
2012	21	57.1	66.7	0	41.7	41.7	0	0	100	8.3	100
2014	21	52.4	36.4	0	0	9.1	0	18.2	90	90.9	80	100

State House

State House competitiveness, Nevada
Year	Seats	% Seats up	% Won by Dem	% Unusable	% With 5% margin	% With 10% margin	% Unusuable other	% Uncontested	% Incumbent win	% With incumbent	% of Dem inc winning	% of Repub inc winning
1968	40	100	45	0	5	10	0	27.5	94.3	87.5	88.2	100
1970	40	100	47.5	0	10	20	0	20	90.9	82.5	100	85
1972	40	100	62.5	0	17.5	30	0	15	64.3	70	64.3	64.3
1974	40	100	77.5	0	7.5	15	0	20	88.9	67.5	100	66.7
1976	40	100	87.5	0	7.5	17.5	0	25	93.9	82.5	100	80
1978	40	100	65	0	15	17.5	0	22.5	86.7	75	85.2	100
1980	40	100	65	0	12.5	27.5	0	25	85.3	85	87.5	80
1982	42	100	54.8	0	14.3	21.4	0	14.3	100	57.1	100	100
1984	42	100	40.5	0	14.3	31	0	19	93.5	73.8	85.7	100
1986	42	100	66.7	0	4.8	26.2	0	9.5	78.1	76.2	100	63.2
1988	42	100	71.4	0	4.8	4.8	0	16.7	97.2	85.7	96.3	100
1990	42	100	52.4	0	19	42.9	0	14.3	72.4	69	61.1	90.9
1992	42	100	71.4	0	11.9	21.4	0	4.8	81.3	76.2	100	57.1
1994	42	100	50	0	9.5	26.2	0	16.7	76.7	71.4	69.6	100
1996	42	100	59.5	0	11.9	21.4	0	9.5	93.8	76.2	100	84.6
1998	42	100	66.7	0	9.5	16.7	0	23.8	100	78.6	100	100
2000	42	100	64.3	0	4.8	19	0	19	97.5	95.2	96.2	100
2002	42	100	54.8	0	21.4	26.2	0	16.7	89.7	69	85.7	100
2004	42	100	61.9	0	4.8	11.9	0	9.5	93.8	76.2	100	84.6
2006	42	100	64.3	0	7.1	14.3	0	35.7	97	78.6	100	90.9
2008	42	100	66.7	0	14.3	16.7	0	0	100	81	100	100
2010	42	100	61.9	0	7.1	14.3	0	2.4	95.7	54.8	93.8	100
2012	42	100	61.9	0	11.9	21.4	0	23.8	96.9	76.2	95.2	100
2014	42	100	40.5	0	11.9	26.2	0	23.8	83.9	73.8	73.7	100

Up ballot

Up ballot competitiveness, Nevada
Year	U.S. House Seats	% Not usable	% With 5% margin	% With 10% margin	% Uncontested	U.S. Senate 1 margin	U.S. Senate 2 margin	President margin	Governor margin
1912								17.4
1916								18.9
1920								22.2
1924								7
1928								13.1
1932								38.8
1936								45.6
1938									23.7
1940						21		20.2
1942						17.4			20.5
1944						16.8		9.2
1946	1	0	0	0	0	10.4			14.8
1948	1	0	100	100	0			3.2
1950	1	0	0	100	0	16			15.3
1952	1	0	100	100	0	3.4		22.9
1954	1	0	0	100	0	16.2			6.2
1956	1	0	0	100	0	5.2		15.9
1958	1	0	0	0	0	15.4			19.8
1960	1	0	0	0	0			2.3
1962	1	0	0	0	0	30.6			33.7
1964	1	0	0	0	0	0		17.2
1966	1	0	0	0	0				4.3
1968	1	0	0	0	0	9.5		9.4
1970	1	0	0	0	0	16.7			4.7
1972	1	0	100	100	0			27.4
1974	1	0	0	0	0	0.4			59.5
1976	1	0	0	0	0	33.5		4.5
1978	1	0	0	0	0				17.2
1980	1	0	0	0	0	22		39.9
1982	2	0	0	0	0	2.4			12.3
1984	2	0	0	0	0			34.6
1986	2	0	0	0	0	5.8			48.4
1988	2	0	0	0	0	4.2		21.6
1990	2	0	0	0	0				37.3
1992	2	0	50	50	0	11.9		3.6
1994	2	0	50	50	0	10.8			12.1
1996	2	0	0	50	0			1.2
1998	2	0	50	50	50	0.1			10.2
2000	2	0	0	50	0	16.2		3.7
2002	3	0	0	0	0				51.2
2004	3	0	0	0	0	27		2.6
2006	3	0	33.3	66.7	0	14.9			4.4
2008	3	0	0	33.3	0			12.8
2010	3	0	33.3	33.3	0	6.1			12.4
2012	4	0	0	50	0	1.3		6.8
2014	4	0	25	25	0				49.4

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