Electoral competitiveness in New York, 1912-2014

Competitiveness in state legislatures
Navigation
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming

Published in April 2015

The 2014 national election continued the decline in U.S. electoral competitiveness that has occurred since 1972. The decline of electoral competitiveness that has been seen on the national stage, has also been seen in states. For example, New York saw a significant increase in the number of uncontested elections from 1968 to 2014.

This page contains electoral competitiveness information at various levels of government in this state up to 2014. For more recent information about state legislative competitiveness nationwide, click here.

The data presented below are part of a larger project on electoral competitiveness, the full report is available in the table to the right. The images below illustrate the changes in the competitiveness of elections in New York from 1912 through 2014. The data used to generate these graphs is available in the tables below those images.

Background

Since 1972, electoral competitiveness has tended to decrease across the United States. During that time, people who are members of the same political party have become more likely to live in the same area as one another than in the past. Nationally, the rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness is declining. On the national level, the percentage of state legislative elections won by 5 percent or less was nearly the lowest in the 1972 to 2014 period. In an absolute sense, the incidence of such elections was very low. Only 4.9 percent of U.S. residents in districts with elections saw their election won by 5 percent or less. Similarly, more Americans lived in areas with uncontested elections than ever before in the time period studied: 36.7 percent. State legislative primaries were often found to be won by wide margins or not contested at all. The rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness in elections in New York

• 

  [Ballot_StateGraph01_Marg_Stateno32NewYork2015_04_23.png|Marginal Elections]

• 

  [Ballot_StateGraph02_Uncont_Stateno32NewYork2015_04_23.png|Uncontested Elections]

• 

  [Ballot_StateGraph03_Inc_Stateno32NewYork2015_04_23.png|Incumbent Win Rates]

• 

  [Ballot_StateGraph04_US_HS_Stateno32NewYork2015_04_23.png|Competitiveness in U.S. House Seats]

• 

  [Ballot_StateGraph05_UpBallot_Stateno32NewYork2015_04_23.png|Margin of Victory in Up Ballot Elections]

Table explanation

The columns in the tables below for both state senates and state houses are as follow:

• Seats: number of seats in the state legislative chamber.
• Percent Seats Up: percent of seats in the state legislative chamber that are up in a particular year for the November election.
• Percent Won By Dem: the percent of seats in the state legislature that were won by a Democrat.
• Percent Unusable: percent of seats for the state legislative chamber that weren’t usable to compute whether a race was marginal or not for this chamber in this year because of missing data. This column usually says “0.”
• Percent with 5% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 5% or less.
• Percent with 10% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 10% or less.
• Percent Unusable Other: percent of seats that have missing data that prevent the computation of whether an incumbent won or lost, whether an incumbent ran or not, or whether a race was uncontested. This column usually says “0.”
• Percent Uncontested: percent of races in a chamber that are uncontested.
• Percent Incumbent Win: percent of incumbents who ran for a state chamber in a particular year who won.
• Percent With Incumbent: number of incumbents running for reelection for a state-chamber in one year, divided by the number of seats that are up for election for that state-chamber, multiplied by 100.

The columns for the “Up ballot” tab are as follows:

• U.S. House Seats: number of U.S. House Seats that a state was apportioned in the year in question.
• Percent Not Usable: percent of U.S. House Seats in the state and year that aren’t usable to compute marginality or contestation, because of something unusual about the race.
• Percent With 5% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 5% or less.
• Percent With 10% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 10% or less.
• Percent Uncontested: percent of U.S. House races that were uncontested in the state and year.
• U.S. Senate 1 Margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
• U.S. Senate 2 Margin: This is only recorded when a second election to the U.S. Senate was held because of a Senator not completing their term. For such elections, this is the difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
• President margin: difference between the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the most votes in a state minus the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the second most votes in a state.
• Governor margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the gubernatorial election in a state with the gubernatorial candidate receiving the second most votes.

State Senate

State Senate competitiveness, New York
Year	Seats	% Seats up	% Won by Dem	% Unusable	% With 5% margin	% With 10% margin	% Unusuable other	% Uncontested	% Incumbent win	% With incumbent	% of Dem inc winning	% of Repub inc winning
1968	57	100	42.1	0	3.5	5.3	0	3.5	97.9	84.2	95	100
1970	57	100	43.9	0	3.5	3.5	0	5.3	98.1	93	100	96.8
1972	60	100	38.3	0	5	11.7	0	6.7	93.3	75	89.5	100
1974	60	100	43.3	0	8.3	15	0	6.7	94.3	88.3	100	97.1
1976	60	100	41.7	0	0	13.3	0	8.3	98.1	90	100	100
1978	60	100	41.7	0	6.7	10	0	6.7	100	76.7	100	100
1980	60	100	41.7	0	1.7	3.3	0	15	100	95	100	100
1982	61	100	42.6	0	4.9	13.1	0	11.5	98.2	90.2	100	97
1984	61	100	42.6	0	6.6	8.2	0	16.4	92.7	90.2	90.9	93.9
1986	61	100	42.6	0	3.3	6.6	0	26.2	100	91.8	100	100
1988	61	100	44.3	0	3.3	4.9	0	32.8	98.2	93.4	100	96.9
1990	61	100	42.6	0	0	4.9	0	24.6	98.1	86.9	95.7	100
1992	61	100	42.6	0	3.3	3.3	0	23	94.7	93.4	95.8	100
1994	61	100	41	0	1.6	3.3	0	34.4	100	88.5	100	100
1996	61	100	42.6	0	0	3.3	0	23	92.7	90.2	100	96.9
1998	61	100	42.6	0	0	1.6	0	26.2	100	88.5	100	100
2000	61	100	41	0	1.6	8.2	0	41	98.2	91.8	100	100
2002	62	100	38.7	0	0	1.6	0	35.5	94.5	88.7	94.7	94.4
2004	62	100	43.5	0	3.2	3.2	0	40.3	96.6	95.2	100	94.4
2006	62	100	45.2	0	3.2	4.8	0	30.6	98.2	88.7	100	96.9
2008	62	100	51.6	0	4.8	9.7	0	25.8	96.3	87.1	100	93.3
2010	62	100	48.4	0	8.1	16.1	0	12.9	88.5	83.9	84	96.2
2012	63	100	50.8	0	11.1	14.3	0	36.5	96.4	88.9	100	96.6
2014	63	100	49.2	0	4.8	4.8	0	44.4	94.7	90.5	93.3	100

State House

State House competitiveness, New York
Year	Seats	% Seats up	% Won by Dem	% Unusable	% With 5% margin	% With 10% margin	% Unusuable other	% Uncontested	% Incumbent win	% With incumbent	% of Dem inc winning	% of Repub inc winning
1968	150	100	48	0	10.7	15.3	0	2	87.6	86	81.3	95.3
1970	150	100	46.7	0	6.7	10	0	2	93.1	87.3	96.4	93.2
1972	150	100	44.7	0	10	15.3	0	2.7	94.5	73.3	95.9	98.3
1974	150	100	58.7	0	11.3	20.7	0	2	85.4	82	100	75
1976	150	100	60	0	6	14	0	3.3	96.1	84.7	97.3	100
1978	150	100	57.3	0	8	12	0	5.3	95.1	81.3	94.8	100
1980	150	100	56.7	0	6	9.3	0	7.3	94	89.3	94.7	93
1982	150	100	65.3	0	6	9.3	0	8	91.2	83.3	100	83.7
1984	150	100	62.7	0	2.7	6.7	0	14	96.4	92	95.5	100
1986	150	100	61.3	0	2	4.7	0	17.3	99.3	92	100	98
1988	150	100	61.3	0	2	5.3	0	26.7	98.5	90	97.7	100
1990	150	100	63.3	0	2	6	0	21.3	97	89.3	100	95.8
1992	150	100	66.7	0	3.3	8	0	12.7	95.9	81.3	98.7	95.1
1994	150	100	63.3	0	3.3	7.3	0	18.7	96.2	86.7	95.6	100
1996	150	100	63.3	0	3.3	6	0	18	98.5	90.7	100	97.9
1998	150	100	65.3	0	1.3	4.7	0	24.7	100	87.3	100	100
2000	150	100	65.3	0	1.3	6.7	0	27.3	98.5	91.3	100	97.9
2002	150	100	68	0	3.3	6.7	0	28.7	99.2	85.3	100	100
2004	150	100	69.3	0	2.7	6.7	0	34	96.3	90	100	95.1
2006	150	100	72	0	2	6.7	0	31.3	99.2	83.3	100	100
2008	150	100	72.7	0	0.7	2.7	0	34	98.6	92.7	100	97.4
2010	150	100	66	0	4	8.7	0	26.7	93.5	82.7	93.5	100
2012	150	100	71.3	0	2.7	6.7	0	38	96.7	80	100	92.1
2014	150	100	70.7	0	4.7	8	0	38.7	99.2	87.3	98.9	100

Up ballot

Up ballot competitiveness, New York
Year	U.S. House Seats	% Not usable	% With 5% margin	% With 10% margin	% Uncontested	U.S. Senate 1 margin	U.S. Senate 2 margin	President margin	Governor margin
1912								18
1916								7.3
1920								41.1
1924								31.4
1928								2.4
1932								13.3
1936								20.3	9.6
1938									1.4
1940						6.6		3.6
1942									17.7
1944						6.4		5
1946	45	0	2.2	22.2	0	5.2			13.8
1948	45	2.2	15.9	25	8.9			1.1
1949						4
1950	45	2.2	6.8	13.6	2.2	5.3			11.3
1952	43	0	4.7	11.6	4.7	20.9		12
1954	43	0	7	14	2.3				0.2
1956	43	0	4.7	4.7	0	6.6		22.5
1958	43	0	4.7	20.9	2.3	2.4			10.1
1960	43	0	7	18.6	0			5.3
1962	41	0	7.3	9.8	0	17.7			9.4
1964	41	0	12.2	26.8	0	10.4		37.3
1966	41	0	14.6	19.5	0				7.9
1968	41	0	9.8	17.1	0	20.6		5.8
1970	41	7.3	7.9	18.4	12.2	20.4			13.1
1972	39	2.6	7.9	13.2	5.1			17.4
1974	39	0	2.6	12.8	12.8	8.5			15.4
1976	39	0	2.6	7.7	12.8	9.4		4.4
1978	39	0	2.6	17.9	17.9				6
1980	39	0	5.1	7.7	10.3	1.5		2.9
1982	34	0	0	8.8	14.7	31.2			3.5
1984	34	0	5.9	20.6	5.9			8
1986	34	0	5.9	11.8	20.6	16			34.1
1988	34	2.9	6.1	9.1	26.5	36.7		4.1
1990	34	0	0	0	17.6				43
1992	31	0	16.1	25.8	12.9	1.3		19
1994	31	0	3.2	6.5	16.1	14.2			3.5
1996	31	0	0	9.7	0			32
1998	31	0	0	3.2	9.7	10.7			24.2
2000	31	0	0	0	3.2	12.5		26.2
2002	29	0	0	0	24.1				19.2
2004	29	0	3.4	3.4	10.3	49.2		18.6
2006	29	0	13.8	20.7	13.8	38			41.6
2008	29	0	6.9	6.9	6.9			27.2
2010	29	0	13.8	31	3.4	34.6	28.4		30.6
2012	27	0	18.5	29.6	7.4	46.6		28.6
2014	27	0	7.4	18.5	37				14.8

Navigation map

Click on a different state below for more detailed data on electoral competitiveness.

Choose your state...AlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaWashingtonWashington, D.C.West VirginiaWisconsinWyoming

http://ballotpedia.org/Competitiveness in STATE state legislative elections

Ballotpedia

About

Overview • What people are saying • Support Ballotpedia • Contact • Contribute • Job opportunities

---

Executive: Leslie Graves, Founder and CEO • Gwen Beattie, Chief Operating Officer

Communications: Alison Graves, Director of Communications • Carley Allensworth • Abigail Campbell • Frank Festa • Sarah Groat • Nathaniel Harwood • Dillon Redmond • Erica Shumaker
External Relations: Geoff Pallay, Director of External Relations • Ken Carbullido, Vice President of Election Product and Technology Strategy • Ashley Fleming • Thomas Mardik • Hannah Nelson
Operations: Meghann Olshefski, Director of Operations • Amanda Herbert • Mandy Morris • Caroline Presnell • Kelly Rindfleisch
Tech: Matt Latourelle, Director of Technology Operations • Ryan Burch • Kirsten Corrao • Beth Dellea • Travis Eden • Tate Kamish • Margaret Kearney • Eric Lotto • Joseph Sanchez • Mary Susmitha

Contributors: Scott Rasmussen

---

Editorial Content

Josh Altic, Director of Content • Daniel Anderson, Associate Director of Elections & Data • Cory Eucalitto, Associate Director of Features • Ryan Byrne, Managing Editor of Ballot Measures • Mandy McConnell, Managing Editor of News • Doug Kronaizl, Managing Editor of Local Expansion • Abbey Smith, Managing Editor of Elections • Janie Valentine, Managing Editor of Law • Joel Williams. Managing Editor of Events • Andrew Bahl • Jaclyn Beran • Marielle Bricker • Joseph Brusgard • Emma Burlingame • Kelly Coyle • Jon Dunn • Thomas Ellis • Nicole Fisher • Joseph Greaney • Thomas Grobben • Jaime Healy-Plotkin • Brianna Hosea • Molly Kehoe • Tyler King • Glorie Martinez • Norm Leahy, Senior Editor • Nathan Maxwell • Jimmy McAllister • Brandon McCauley • Ellie Mikus • Ellen Morrissey • Mackenzie Murphy • Kaley Platek • Samantha Post • Adam Powell • Annelise Reinwald • Ethan Rice • Spencer Richardson • Victoria Rose • Briana Ryan • Myj Saintyl • Maddy Salucka • Emma Soukup • Alexis Thacker • Mina Vogel • Samuel Wonacott • Trenton Woodcox