Electoral competitiveness in New York, 1912-2014

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search
Competitiveness in
state legislatures
2014 badge.jpg
Navigation
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming

Published in April 2015

The 2014 national election continued the decline in U.S. electoral competitiveness that has occurred since 1972. The decline of electoral competitiveness that has been seen on the national stage, has also been seen in states. For example, New York saw a significant increase in the number of uncontested elections from 1968 to 2014.

This page contains electoral competitiveness information at various levels of government in this state up to 2014. For more recent information about state legislative competitiveness nationwide, click here.

The data presented below are part of a larger project on electoral competitiveness, the full report is available in the table to the right. The images below illustrate the changes in the competitiveness of elections in New York from 1912 through 2014. The data used to generate these graphs is available in the tables below those images.

Background

Since 1972, electoral competitiveness has tended to decrease across the United States. During that time, people who are members of the same political party have become more likely to live in the same area as one another than in the past. Nationally, the rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness is declining. On the national level, the percentage of state legislative elections won by 5 percent or less was nearly the lowest in the 1972 to 2014 period. In an absolute sense, the incidence of such elections was very low. Only 4.9 percent of U.S. residents in districts with elections saw their election won by 5 percent or less. Similarly, more Americans lived in areas with uncontested elections than ever before in the time period studied: 36.7 percent. State legislative primaries were often found to be won by wide margins or not contested at all. The rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness in elections in New York

Table explanation

The columns in the tables below for both state senates and state houses are as follow:

  • Seats: number of seats in the state legislative chamber.
  • Percent Seats Up: percent of seats in the state legislative chamber that are up in a particular year for the November election.
  • Percent Won By Dem: the percent of seats in the state legislature that were won by a Democrat.
  • Percent Unusable: percent of seats for the state legislative chamber that weren’t usable to compute whether a race was marginal or not for this chamber in this year because of missing data. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent with 5% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent with 10% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Unusable Other: percent of seats that have missing data that prevent the computation of whether an incumbent won or lost, whether an incumbent ran or not, or whether a race was uncontested. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of races in a chamber that are uncontested.
  • Percent Incumbent Win: percent of incumbents who ran for a state chamber in a particular year who won.
  • Percent With Incumbent: number of incumbents running for reelection for a state-chamber in one year, divided by the number of seats that are up for election for that state-chamber, multiplied by 100.

The columns for the “Up ballot” tab are as follows:

  • U.S. House Seats: number of U.S. House Seats that a state was apportioned in the year in question.
  • Percent Not Usable: percent of U.S. House Seats in the state and year that aren’t usable to compute marginality or contestation, because of something unusual about the race.
  • Percent With 5% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent With 10% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of U.S. House races that were uncontested in the state and year.
  • U.S. Senate 1 Margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • U.S. Senate 2 Margin: This is only recorded when a second election to the U.S. Senate was held because of a Senator not completing their term. For such elections, this is the difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • President margin: difference between the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the most votes in a state minus the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the second most votes in a state.
  • Governor margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the gubernatorial election in a state with the gubernatorial candidate receiving the second most votes.

State Senate

State Senate competitiveness, New York
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1968 57 100 42.1 0 3.5 5.3 0 3.5 97.9 84.2 95 100
1970 57 100 43.9 0 3.5 3.5 0 5.3 98.1 93 100 96.8
1972 60 100 38.3 0 5 11.7 0 6.7 93.3 75 89.5 100
1974 60 100 43.3 0 8.3 15 0 6.7 94.3 88.3 100 97.1
1976 60 100 41.7 0 0 13.3 0 8.3 98.1 90 100 100
1978 60 100 41.7 0 6.7 10 0 6.7 100 76.7 100 100
1980 60 100 41.7 0 1.7 3.3 0 15 100 95 100 100
1982 61 100 42.6 0 4.9 13.1 0 11.5 98.2 90.2 100 97
1984 61 100 42.6 0 6.6 8.2 0 16.4 92.7 90.2 90.9 93.9
1986 61 100 42.6 0 3.3 6.6 0 26.2 100 91.8 100 100
1988 61 100 44.3 0 3.3 4.9 0 32.8 98.2 93.4 100 96.9
1990 61 100 42.6 0 0 4.9 0 24.6 98.1 86.9 95.7 100
1992 61 100 42.6 0 3.3 3.3 0 23 94.7 93.4 95.8 100
1994 61 100 41 0 1.6 3.3 0 34.4 100 88.5 100 100
1996 61 100 42.6 0 0 3.3 0 23 92.7 90.2 100 96.9
1998 61 100 42.6 0 0 1.6 0 26.2 100 88.5 100 100
2000 61 100 41 0 1.6 8.2 0 41 98.2 91.8 100 100
2002 62 100 38.7 0 0 1.6 0 35.5 94.5 88.7 94.7 94.4
2004 62 100 43.5 0 3.2 3.2 0 40.3 96.6 95.2 100 94.4
2006 62 100 45.2 0 3.2 4.8 0 30.6 98.2 88.7 100 96.9
2008 62 100 51.6 0 4.8 9.7 0 25.8 96.3 87.1 100 93.3
2010 62 100 48.4 0 8.1 16.1 0 12.9 88.5 83.9 84 96.2
2012 63 100 50.8 0 11.1 14.3 0 36.5 96.4 88.9 100 96.6
2014 63 100 49.2 0 4.8 4.8 0 44.4 94.7 90.5 93.3 100

State House

State House competitiveness, New York
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1968 150 100 48 0 10.7 15.3 0 2 87.6 86 81.3 95.3
1970 150 100 46.7 0 6.7 10 0 2 93.1 87.3 96.4 93.2
1972 150 100 44.7 0 10 15.3 0 2.7 94.5 73.3 95.9 98.3
1974 150 100 58.7 0 11.3 20.7 0 2 85.4 82 100 75
1976 150 100 60 0 6 14 0 3.3 96.1 84.7 97.3 100
1978 150 100 57.3 0 8 12 0 5.3 95.1 81.3 94.8 100
1980 150 100 56.7 0 6 9.3 0 7.3 94 89.3 94.7 93
1982 150 100 65.3 0 6 9.3 0 8 91.2 83.3 100 83.7
1984 150 100 62.7 0 2.7 6.7 0 14 96.4 92 95.5 100
1986 150 100 61.3 0 2 4.7 0 17.3 99.3 92 100 98
1988 150 100 61.3 0 2 5.3 0 26.7 98.5 90 97.7 100
1990 150 100 63.3 0 2 6 0 21.3 97 89.3 100 95.8
1992 150 100 66.7 0 3.3 8 0 12.7 95.9 81.3 98.7 95.1
1994 150 100 63.3 0 3.3 7.3 0 18.7 96.2 86.7 95.6 100
1996 150 100 63.3 0 3.3 6 0 18 98.5 90.7 100 97.9
1998 150 100 65.3 0 1.3 4.7 0 24.7 100 87.3 100 100
2000 150 100 65.3 0 1.3 6.7 0 27.3 98.5 91.3 100 97.9
2002 150 100 68 0 3.3 6.7 0 28.7 99.2 85.3 100 100
2004 150 100 69.3 0 2.7 6.7 0 34 96.3 90 100 95.1
2006 150 100 72 0 2 6.7 0 31.3 99.2 83.3 100 100
2008 150 100 72.7 0 0.7 2.7 0 34 98.6 92.7 100 97.4
2010 150 100 66 0 4 8.7 0 26.7 93.5 82.7 93.5 100
2012 150 100 71.3 0 2.7 6.7 0 38 96.7 80 100 92.1
2014 150 100 70.7 0 4.7 8 0 38.7 99.2 87.3 98.9 100

Up ballot

Up ballot competitiveness, New York
Year U.S. House Seats % Not usable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Uncontested U.S. Senate 1 margin U.S. Senate 2 margin President margin Governor margin
1912 18
1916 7.3
1920 41.1
1924 31.4
1928 2.4
1932 13.3
1936 20.3 9.6
1938 1.4
1940 6.6 3.6
1942 17.7
1944 6.4 5
1946 45 0 2.2 22.2 0 5.2 13.8
1948 45 2.2 15.9 25 8.9 1.1
1949 4
1950 45 2.2 6.8 13.6 2.2 5.3 11.3
1952 43 0 4.7 11.6 4.7 20.9 12
1954 43 0 7 14 2.3 0.2
1956 43 0 4.7 4.7 0 6.6 22.5
1958 43 0 4.7 20.9 2.3 2.4 10.1
1960 43 0 7 18.6 0 5.3
1962 41 0 7.3 9.8 0 17.7 9.4
1964 41 0 12.2 26.8 0 10.4 37.3
1966 41 0 14.6 19.5 0 7.9
1968 41 0 9.8 17.1 0 20.6 5.8
1970 41 7.3 7.9 18.4 12.2 20.4 13.1
1972 39 2.6 7.9 13.2 5.1 17.4
1974 39 0 2.6 12.8 12.8 8.5 15.4
1976 39 0 2.6 7.7 12.8 9.4 4.4
1978 39 0 2.6 17.9 17.9 6
1980 39 0 5.1 7.7 10.3 1.5 2.9
1982 34 0 0 8.8 14.7 31.2 3.5
1984 34 0 5.9 20.6 5.9 8
1986 34 0 5.9 11.8 20.6 16 34.1
1988 34 2.9 6.1 9.1 26.5 36.7 4.1
1990 34 0 0 0 17.6 43
1992 31 0 16.1 25.8 12.9 1.3 19
1994 31 0 3.2 6.5 16.1 14.2 3.5
1996 31 0 0 9.7 0 32
1998 31 0 0 3.2 9.7 10.7 24.2
2000 31 0 0 0 3.2 12.5 26.2
2002 29 0 0 0 24.1 19.2
2004 29 0 3.4 3.4 10.3 49.2 18.6
2006 29 0 13.8 20.7 13.8 38 41.6
2008 29 0 6.9 6.9 6.9 27.2
2010 29 0 13.8 31 3.4 34.6 28.4 30.6
2012 27 0 18.5 29.6 7.4 46.6 28.6
2014 27 0 7.4 18.5 37 14.8

Navigation map

Click on a different state below for more detailed data on electoral competitiveness.
http://ballotpedia.org/Competitiveness in STATE state legislative elections
v • e
2014 Elections to State legislatures
State Senate elections
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kentucky • Maine • Maryland •Massachusetts • Michigan • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming
SLP badge.png
State House elections
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Missouri • Montana • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming
Election information
v • e
State legislatures
Legislatures
Alabama (H, S) · Alaska (H, S) · Arizona (H, S) · Arkansas (H, S) · California (A, S) · Colorado (H, S) · Connecticut (H, S) · Delaware (H, S) · Florida (H, S) · Georgia (H, S) · Hawaii (H, S) · Idaho (H, S) · Illinois (H, S) · Indiana (H, S) · Iowa (H, S) · Kansas (H, S) · Kentucky (H, S) · Louisiana (H, S) · Maine (H, S) · Maryland (H, S) · Massachusetts (H, S) · Michigan (H, S) · Minnesota (H, S) · Mississippi (H, S) · Missouri (H, S) · Montana (H, S) · Nebraska · Nevada (A, S) · New Hampshire (H, S) · New Jersey (GA, S) · New Mexico (H, S) · New York (A, S) · North Carolina (H, S) · North Dakota (H, S) · Ohio (H, S) · Oklahoma (H, S) · Oregon (H, S) · Pennsylvania (H, S) · Rhode Island (H, S) · South Carolina (H, S) · South Dakota (H, S) · Tennessee (H, S) · Texas (H, S) · Utah (H, S) · Vermont (H, S) · Virginia (H, S) · Washington (H, S) · West Virginia (H, S) · Wisconsin (A, S) · Wyoming (H, S)
SLP badge.png
2025
2024
2023
Historical elections
2022 •  2021 • 2020 • 2019 • 2018 • 2017 • 2016 • 2015 • 2014 • 2013 • 2012 • 2011 • 2010 • 2009 • 2008 • 2007 • 2006 • 2005 • 2004 • 2003 • 2002 • 2001 • 2000
Features of
state legislatures
State senates
State houses
Leadership positions
Retrieved from "https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=Electoral_competitiveness_in_New_York,_1912-2014&oldid=9121395"