Electoral competitiveness in Oklahoma, 1912-2014

Competitiveness in state legislatures
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Published in April 2015

The 2014 national election continued the decline in U.S. electoral competitiveness that has occurred since 1972. The decline of electoral competitiveness that has been seen on the national stage, has also been seen in states. Oklahoma House of Representatives incumbents running for reelection never saw their reelection rate drop below 90 percent from 1968 to 2014.

This page contains electoral competitiveness information at various levels of government in this state up to 2014. For more recent information about state legislative competitiveness nationwide, click here.

The data presented below are part of a larger project on electoral competitiveness, the full report is available in the table to the right. The images below illustrate the changes in the competitiveness of elections in Oklahoma from 1912 through 2014. The data used to generate these graphs is available in the tables below those images.

Background

Since 1972, electoral competitiveness has tended to decrease across the United States. During that time, people who are members of the same political party have become more likely to live in the same area as one another than in the past. Nationally, the rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness is declining. On the national level, the percentage of state legislative elections won by 5 percent or less was nearly the lowest in the 1972 to 2014 period. In an absolute sense, the incidence of such elections was very low. Only 4.9 percent of U.S. residents in districts with elections saw their election won by 5 percent or less. Similarly, more Americans lived in areas with uncontested elections than ever before in the time period studied: 36.7 percent. State legislative primaries were often found to be won by wide margins or not contested at all. The rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness in elections in Oklahoma

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  [Ballot_StateGraph01_Marg_Stateno36Oklahoma2015_04_23.png|Marginal Elections]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph02_Uncont_Stateno36Oklahoma2015_04_23.png|Uncontested Elections]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph03_Inc_Stateno36Oklahoma2015_04_23.png|Incumbent Win Rates]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph04_US_HS_Stateno36Oklahoma2015_04_23.png|Competitiveness in U.S. House Seats]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph05_UpBallot_Stateno36Oklahoma2015_04_23.png|Margin of Victory in Up Ballot Elections]

Table explanation

The columns in the tables below for both state senates and state houses are as follow:

• Seats: number of seats in the state legislative chamber.
• Percent Seats Up: percent of seats in the state legislative chamber that are up in a particular year for the November election.
• Percent Won By Dem: the percent of seats in the state legislature that were won by a Democrat.
• Percent Unusable: percent of seats for the state legislative chamber that weren’t usable to compute whether a race was marginal or not for this chamber in this year because of missing data. This column usually says “0.”
• Percent with 5% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 5% or less.
• Percent with 10% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 10% or less.
• Percent Unusable Other: percent of seats that have missing data that prevent the computation of whether an incumbent won or lost, whether an incumbent ran or not, or whether a race was uncontested. This column usually says “0.”
• Percent Uncontested: percent of races in a chamber that are uncontested.
• Percent Incumbent Win: percent of incumbents who ran for a state chamber in a particular year who won.
• Percent With Incumbent: number of incumbents running for reelection for a state-chamber in one year, divided by the number of seats that are up for election for that state-chamber, multiplied by 100.

The columns for the “Up ballot” tab are as follows:

• U.S. House Seats: number of U.S. House Seats that a state was apportioned in the year in question.
• Percent Not Usable: percent of U.S. House Seats in the state and year that aren’t usable to compute marginality or contestation, because of something unusual about the race.
• Percent With 5% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 5% or less.
• Percent With 10% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 10% or less.
• Percent Uncontested: percent of U.S. House races that were uncontested in the state and year.
• U.S. Senate 1 Margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
• U.S. Senate 2 Margin: This is only recorded when a second election to the U.S. Senate was held because of a Senator not completing their term. For such elections, this is the difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
• President margin: difference between the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the most votes in a state minus the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the second most votes in a state.
• Governor margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the gubernatorial election in a state with the gubernatorial candidate receiving the second most votes.

State Senate

State Senate competitiveness, Oklahoma
Year	Seats	% Seats up	% Won by Dem	% Unusable	% With 5% margin	% With 10% margin	% Unusuable other	% Uncontested	% Incumbent win	% With incumbent	% of Dem inc winning	% of Repub inc winning
1968	48	50	79.2	0	4.2	8.3	0	58.3	100	75	100	100
1970	48	50	83.3	0	4.2	4.2	0	50	95	83.3	100	80
1972	48	56.3	70.4	0	3.7	11.1	0	51.9	86.4	81.5	88.9	75
1974	48	52.1	88	0	0	12	0	64	81.3	64	92.3	33.3
1976	48	50	75	0	4.2	4.2	0	75	100	62.5	100	100
1978	48	50	87.5	0	4.2	8.3	0	41.7	93.3	62.5	100	66.7
1980	48	50	66.7	0	4.2	4.2	0	66.7	100	70.8	100	100
1982	48	56.3	77.8	0	7.4	7.4	0	63	89.5	70.4	94.1	100
1984	48	50	62.5	0	4.2	8.3	0	45.8	100	83.3	100	100
1986	48	52.1	68	0	12	16	0	36	76.9	52	70	100
1988	48	50	70.8	0	4.2	16.7	0	45.8	91.7	50	100	75
1990	48	50	83.3	0	4.2	16.7	0	54.2	78.9	79.2	100	33.3
1992	48	50	70.8	0	4.2	8.3	0	45.8	100	75	100	100
1994	48	50	75	0	4.2	8.3	0	50	95.2	87.5	94.1	100
1996	48	50	62.5	0	8.3	16.7	0	16.7	89.5	79.2	86.7	100
1998	48	50	75	0	4.2	8.3	0	37.5	100	83.3	100	100
2000	48	50	50	0	8.3	12.5	0	29.2	91.3	95.8	85.7	100
2002	48	50	66.7	0	12.5	16.7	0	45.8	93.8	66.7	100	75
2004	48	52.1	44	0	8	12	0	32	100	32	100	100
2006	48	50	54.2	0	8.3	16.7	0	37.5	91.7	50	80	100
2008	48	50	37.5	0	4.2	4.2	0	54.2	94.7	79.2	88.9	100
2010	48	50	29.2	0	4.2	12.5	0	58.3	93.8	66.7	87.5	100
2012	48	50	20.8	0	0	8.3	0	54.2	100	62.5	100	100
2014	48	52.1	16	0	0	16	0	52	100	56	100	100

State House

State House competitiveness, Oklahoma
Year	Seats	% Seats up	% Won by Dem	% Unusable	% With 5% margin	% With 10% margin	% Unusuable other	% Uncontested	% Incumbent win	% With incumbent	% of Dem inc winning	% of Repub inc winning
1968	99	100	76.8	0	5.1	9.1	0	54.5	94	83.8	98.3	83.3
1970	99	100	78.8	0	1	3	0	55.6	100	74.7	100	100
1972	101	100	74.3	0	6.9	17.8	0	50.5	93.5	76.2	93.3	94.1
1974	101	100	75.2	0	3	5.9	0	52.5	94.6	73.3	96.5	88.2
1976	101	100	78.2	0	3	5.9	0	61.4	98.8	84.2	100	95
1978	101	100	74.3	0	4	11.9	0	58.4	98.7	77.2	98.3	100
1980	101	100	72.3	0	3	6.9	0	71.3	93.7	78.2	91.8	100
1982	101	100	75.2	0	2	5.9	0	66.3	100	75.2	100	100
1984	101	100	68.3	0	5	11.9	0	54.5	96.2	77.2	94.9	100
1986	101	100	69.3	0	7.9	13.9	0	47.5	93.2	73.3	98.1	81.8
1988	101	100	68.3	0	8.9	16.8	0	46.5	94.6	73.3	96.1	91.3
1990	101	100	68.3	0	5	15.8	0	42.6	94.8	76.2	95.9	92.9
1992	101	100	67.3	0	3	7.9	0	52.5	97.6	83.2	96.4	100
1994	101	100	64.4	0	5.9	8.9	0	53.5	96.3	79.2	94.8	100
1996	101	100	64.4	0	6.9	15.8	0	28.7	96.6	88.1	98.2	93.9
1998	101	100	60.4	0	5	8.9	0	45.5	97.8	91.1	98.3	97.1
2000	101	100	52.5	0	8.9	12.9	0	44.6	94.4	88.1	90.7	100
2002	101	100	52.5	0	4	6.9	0	49.5	97.6	84.2	100	95.6
2004	101	100	43.6	0	7.9	9.9	0	35.6	96.8	61.4	96.4	97.1
2006	101	100	43.6	0	7.9	14.9	0	53.5	97.3	74.3	100	95.1
2008	101	100	39.6	0	2	6.9	0	44.6	98.8	82.2	97.1	100
2010	101	100	30.7	0	6.9	11.9	0	55.4	94.1	84.2	84.4	100
2012	101	100	28.7	0	3	6.9	0	66.3	100	82.2	100	100
2014	101	100	28.7	0	2	4	0	64.4	98.8	79.2	100	98.2

Up ballot

Up ballot competitiveness, Oklahoma
Year	U.S. House Seats	% Not usable	% With 5% margin	% With 10% margin	% Uncontested	U.S. Senate 1 margin	U.S. Senate 2 margin	President margin	Governor margin
1912								13.5
1916								20.7
1920								5.8
1924								6.1
1928								28.5
1932								46.6
1936								34.3
1938									41
1940								15.2
1942						10.1			4.3
1944						11.7		11.4
1946	8	0	12.5	37.5	0				6.6
1948	8	0	0	12.5	0	25		25.5
1950	8	0	0	25	0	9.6			2.5
1952	6	0	0	0	0			9.2
1954	6	0	0	0	16.7	12.2			17.3
1956	6	0	0	0	0	10.7		10.3
1958	6	0	16.7	16.7	0				57.6
1960	6	0	16.7	16.7	0	10.3		18
1962	6	0	0	16.7	33.3	6.9			10.9
1964	6	0	0	0	16.7	2.3		11.5
1966	6	0	33.3	50	0	7.4			12
1968	6	0	0	33.3	0	5.7		19.7
1970	6	0	0	0	16.7				0.3
1972	6	0	0	0	16.7	3.9		50.9
1974	6	0	16.7	33.3	33.3	0.5			27.8
1976	6	0	16.7	50	0			1.2
1978	6	0	0	16.7	16.7	33.2			4.6
1980	6	0	16.7	33.3	16.7	10.2		26.7
1982	6	0	0	16.7	0				24.5
1984	6	0	16.7	16.7	0	52.7		38.2
1986	6	0	0	0	16.7	10.4			3.2
1988	6	0	0	16.7	33.3			16.8
1990	6	0	0	0	0	66.4			27.5
1992	6	0	0	33.3	0	21		11.2
1994	6	0	16.7	33.3	16.7	16			22.6
1996	6	0	0	16.7	0	17.2		8.8
1998	6	0	0	0	0	35.9			17.1
2000	6	0	0	0	16.7			22.2
2002	5	0	0	20	20	22.4			0.8
2004	5	0	0	0	40	12.3		31.1
2006	5	0	0	0	0				33
2008	5	0	0	0	0	18.3		31.3
2010	5	0	0	0	40	46			20.9
2012	5	0	0	0	0			33.5
2014	5	0	0	0	20	40.1	40.9		15.3

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