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Electoral competitiveness in Oregon, 1912-2014

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Competitiveness in
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Published in April 2015

The 2014 national election continued the decline in U.S. electoral competitiveness that has occurred since 1972. The decline of electoral competitiveness that has been seen on the national stage, has also been seen in states. For example, the percentage of Oregon State Senate elections won by 5 percent or less decreased from 17.6 percent in 1968 to 6.3 percent in 2014.

This page contains electoral competitiveness information at various levels of government in this state up to 2014. For more recent information about state legislative competitiveness nationwide, click here.

The data presented below are part of a larger project on electoral competitiveness, the full report is available in the table to the right. The images below illustrate the changes in the competitiveness of elections in Oregon from 1912 through 2014. The data used to generate these graphs is available in the tables below those images.

Background

Since 1972, electoral competitiveness has tended to decrease across the United States. During that time, people who are members of the same political party have become more likely to live in the same area as one another than in the past. Nationally, the rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness is declining. On the national level, the percentage of state legislative elections won by 5 percent or less was nearly the lowest in the 1972 to 2014 period. In an absolute sense, the incidence of such elections was very low. Only 4.9 percent of U.S. residents in districts with elections saw their election won by 5 percent or less. Similarly, more Americans lived in areas with uncontested elections than ever before in the time period studied: 36.7 percent. State legislative primaries were often found to be won by wide margins or not contested at all. The rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness in elections in Oregon

Table explanation

The columns in the tables below for both state senates and state houses are as follow:

  • Seats: number of seats in the state legislative chamber.
  • Percent Seats Up: percent of seats in the state legislative chamber that are up in a particular year for the November election.
  • Percent Won By Dem: the percent of seats in the state legislature that were won by a Democrat.
  • Percent Unusable: percent of seats for the state legislative chamber that weren’t usable to compute whether a race was marginal or not for this chamber in this year because of missing data. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent with 5% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent with 10% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Unusable Other: percent of seats that have missing data that prevent the computation of whether an incumbent won or lost, whether an incumbent ran or not, or whether a race was uncontested. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of races in a chamber that are uncontested.
  • Percent Incumbent Win: percent of incumbents who ran for a state chamber in a particular year who won.
  • Percent With Incumbent: number of incumbents running for reelection for a state-chamber in one year, divided by the number of seats that are up for election for that state-chamber, multiplied by 100.

The columns for the “Up ballot” tab are as follows:

  • U.S. House Seats: number of U.S. House Seats that a state was apportioned in the year in question.
  • Percent Not Usable: percent of U.S. House Seats in the state and year that aren’t usable to compute marginality or contestation, because of something unusual about the race.
  • Percent With 5% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent With 10% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of U.S. House races that were uncontested in the state and year.
  • U.S. Senate 1 Margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • U.S. Senate 2 Margin: This is only recorded when a second election to the U.S. Senate was held because of a Senator not completing their term. For such elections, this is the difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • President margin: difference between the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the most votes in a state minus the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the second most votes in a state.
  • Governor margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the gubernatorial election in a state with the gubernatorial candidate receiving the second most votes.

State Senate

State Senate competitiveness, Oregon
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1968 30 56.7 52.9 0 17.6 17.6 0 35.3 91.7 70.6 87.5 100
1970 30 53.3 56.3 0 12.5 31.3 0 0 63.6 68.8 80 50
1972 30 50 66.7 0 13.3 20 0 6.7 77.8 60 100 60
1974 30 50 80 0 20 33.3 0 13.3 58.3 80 83.3 33.3
1976 30 50 73.3 0 0 0 0 33.3 91.7 80 100 80
1978 30 53.3 81.3 0 0 0 0 25 91.7 75 90.9 100
1980 30 50 73.3 0 0 0 0 33.3 100 73.3 100 100
1982 30 50 66.7 0 13.3 40 0 6.7 87.5 53.3 100 66.7
1984 30 50 53.3 0 20 26.7 0 20 80 66.7 71.4 100
1986 30 50 60 0 20 33.3 0 13.3 81.8 73.3 71.4 100
1988 30 56.7 64.7 0 17.6 29.4 0 41.2 100 52.9 100 100
1990 30 50 73.3 0 20 40 0 6.7 100 93.3 100 100
1992 30 53.3 43.8 0 6.3 12.5 0 31.3 87.5 50 80 100
1994 30 50 40 0 0 20 0 26.7 88.9 60 80 100
1996 30 50 26.7 0 6.7 33.3 0 33.3 100 26.7 100
1998 30 50 60 0 6.7 13.3 0 26.7 100 46.7 100 100
2000 30 50 33.3 0 6.7 20 0 33.3 87.5 53.3 100 80
2002 30 50 66.7 0 6.7 40 0 6.7 100 46.7 100 100
2004 30 56.7 52.9 0 11.8 17.6 0 47.1 100 58.8 100 100
2006 30 50 73.3 0 6.7 20 0 6.7 100 73.3 100 100
2008 30 53.3 56.3 0 0 0 0 50 100 56.3 100 100
2010 30 53.3 62.5 0 25 56.3 0 0 100 68.8 100 100
2012 30 53.3 50 0 0 12.5 0 25 100 62.5 100 100
2014 30 53.3 75 0 6.3 25 0 31.3 92.3 81.3 100 75

State House

State House competitiveness, Oregon
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1968 60 100 36.7 0 5 21.7 0 21.7 92.9 70 92.9 92.9
1970 60 100 43.3 0 11.7 30 0 5 95 66.7 100 92.3
1972 60 100 55 0 16.7 40 0 1.7 75.6 68.3 93.8 66.7
1974 60 100 63.3 0 10 28.3 0 11.7 85.4 80 96.2 72.7
1976 60 100 61.7 0 15 20 0 11.7 89.4 78.3 93.3 82.4
1978 60 100 56.7 0 10 15 0 13.3 89.6 80 86.7 94.4
1980 60 100 55 0 5 28.3 0 18.3 93 71.7 92 94.4
1982 60 100 60 0 8.3 15 0 6.7 97.8 75 100 95.5
1984 60 100 56.7 0 15 23.3 0 18.3 95.3 71.7 91.7 100
1986 60 100 51.7 0 13.3 23.3 0 8.3 94.2 86.7 89.7 100
1988 60 100 53.3 0 13.3 31.7 0 20 85.4 80 91.3 80
1990 60 100 48.3 0 11.7 21.7 0 13.3 85.7 93.3 82.8 88.9
1992 60 100 46.7 0 11.7 25 0 20 92.9 70 94.4 91.7
1994 60 100 45 0 11.7 20 0 11.7 97.4 65 93.3 100
1996 60 100 48.3 0 6.7 18.3 0 15 95.2 70 100 95.5
1998 60 100 41.7 0 8.3 18.3 0 21.7 100 55 100 100
2000 60 100 43.3 0 10 16.7 0 16.7 100 58.3 100 100
2002 60 100 41.7 0 13.3 21.7 0 18.3 97.4 65 93.8 100
2004 60 100 45 0 13.3 21.7 0 23.3 97.6 68.3 100 95.5
2006 60 100 51.7 0 10 16.7 0 15 93.9 81.7 100 89.7
2008 60 100 60 0 5 16.7 0 35 93.2 73.3 100 83.3
2010 60 100 50 0 3.3 20 0 6.7 94.1 85 90 100
2012 60 100 56.7 0 6.7 15 0 16.7 93.9 81.7 100 88.9
2014 60 100 58.3 0 1.7 15 0 35 100 70 100 100

Up ballot

Up ballot competitiveness, Oregon
Year U.S. House Seats % Not usable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Uncontested U.S. Senate 1 margin U.S. Senate 2 margin President margin Governor margin
1912 11.2
1916 2.7
1920 28.4
1924 35.2
1928 30.6
1932 22.3
1936 37
1938 14.8
1940 8.1
1942 54.1 55.7
1944 21.4 15.1 4.9
1946 4 0 0 0 0 38.1
1948 4 0 0 0 0 20.1 3.5 8.9
1950 4 0 0 25 0 52.7 32.1
1952 4 0 0 25 0 21.7
1954 4 0 25 50 0 0.4 13.8
1956 4 0 50 75 0 8.4 10.5 1
1958 4 0 0 25 0 10.7
1960 4 0 25 25 0 9.2 5.2
1962 4 0 0 25 0 8.3 13.1
1964 4 0 0 25 0 27.8
1966 4 0 0 0 0 3.5 10.6
1968 4 0 0 0 0 0.4 6.5
1970 4 0 0 0 0 11.5
1972 4 0 0 0 25 7.6 10.7
1974 4 0 0 25 0 10.8 15.5
1976 4 0 0 0 25 0.2
1978 4 0 0 0 25 23.4 9.8
1980 4 0 25 50 0 8.4 11.1
1982 5 0 20 40 0 26.2
1984 5 0 0 40 0 33.1 12.2
1986 5 0 0 20 0 27.2 4
1988 5 0 20 20 20 4.8
1990 5 0 0 0 20 7.5 6.7
1992 5 0 20 20 0 5.7 13.3
1994 5 0 40 40 0 9.1
1996 5 0 0 40 0 4.1 9.4
1998 5 0 20 20 20 28.7 36.4
2000 5 0 0 0 0 0.5
2002 5 0 0 20 0 17.3 3
2004 5 0 0 20 0 33.3 4.2
2006 5 0 0 0 0 8.5
2008 5 0 0 0 20 3.5 16.8
2010 5 0 0 20 0 18.6 1.6
2012 5 0 0 0 0 12.5
2014 5 0 0 0 0 20.4 6.1

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