Electoral competitiveness in Pennsylvania, 1912-2014

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Published in April 2015

The 2014 national election continued the decline in U.S. electoral competitiveness that has occurred since 1972. The decline of electoral competitiveness that has been seen on the national stage, has also been seen in states. For example, Pennsylvania saw a steady increase in the number of uncontested elections from 1968 to 2014.

This page contains electoral competitiveness information at various levels of government in this state up to 2014. For more recent information about state legislative competitiveness nationwide, click here.

The data presented below are part of a larger project on electoral competitiveness, the full report is available in the table to the right. The images below illustrate the changes in the competitiveness of elections in Pennsylvania from 1912 through 2014. The data used to generate these graphs is available in the tables below those images.

Background

Since 1972, electoral competitiveness has tended to decrease across the United States. During that time, people who are members of the same political party have become more likely to live in the same area as one another than in the past. Nationally, the rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness is declining. On the national level, the percentage of state legislative elections won by 5 percent or less was nearly the lowest in the 1972 to 2014 period. In an absolute sense, the incidence of such elections was very low. Only 4.9 percent of U.S. residents in districts with elections saw their election won by 5 percent or less. Similarly, more Americans lived in areas with uncontested elections than ever before in the time period studied: 36.7 percent. State legislative primaries were often found to be won by wide margins or not contested at all. The rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness in elections in Pennsylvania

Table explanation

The columns in the tables below for both state senates and state houses are as follow:

  • Seats: number of seats in the state legislative chamber.
  • Percent Seats Up: percent of seats in the state legislative chamber that are up in a particular year for the November election.
  • Percent Won By Dem: the percent of seats in the state legislature that were won by a Democrat.
  • Percent Unusable: percent of seats for the state legislative chamber that weren’t usable to compute whether a race was marginal or not for this chamber in this year because of missing data. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent with 5% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent with 10% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Unusable Other: percent of seats that have missing data that prevent the computation of whether an incumbent won or lost, whether an incumbent ran or not, or whether a race was uncontested. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of races in a chamber that are uncontested.
  • Percent Incumbent Win: percent of incumbents who ran for a state chamber in a particular year who won.
  • Percent With Incumbent: number of incumbents running for reelection for a state-chamber in one year, divided by the number of seats that are up for election for that state-chamber, multiplied by 100.

The columns for the “Up ballot” tab are as follows:

  • U.S. House Seats: number of U.S. House Seats that a state was apportioned in the year in question.
  • Percent Not Usable: percent of U.S. House Seats in the state and year that aren’t usable to compute marginality or contestation, because of something unusual about the race.
  • Percent With 5% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent With 10% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of U.S. House races that were uncontested in the state and year.
  • U.S. Senate 1 Margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • U.S. Senate 2 Margin: This is only recorded when a second election to the U.S. Senate was held because of a Senator not completing their term. For such elections, this is the difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • President margin: difference between the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the most votes in a state minus the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the second most votes in a state.
  • Governor margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the gubernatorial election in a state with the gubernatorial candidate receiving the second most votes.

State Senate

State Senate competitiveness, Pennsylvania
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1968 50 50 48 0 4 4 0 0 94.7 76 100 91.7
1970 50 52 53.8 0 11.5 34.6 0 0 81.3 61.5 87.5 75
1972 50 50 48 0 8 12 0 4 88.2 68 75 100
1974 50 50 68 0 8 12 0 4 90 80 100 77.8
1976 50 50 56 0 24 40 0 8 90.5 84 100 81.8
1978 50 50 48 0 8 16 0 0 93.8 64 90 100
1980 50 50 48 0 8 16 0 4 88.2 68 77.8 100
1982 50 50 48 0 12 20 0 12 94.7 76 100 90
1984 50 50 44 0 4 4 0 12 95 80 90.9 100
1986 50 50 52 0 0 4 0 28 95.5 88 100 100
1988 50 50 44 0 0 4 0 20 100 68 100 100
1990 50 50 52 0 12 16 0 24 91.3 92 91.7 90.9
1992 50 50 44 0 0 8 0 16 100 88 100 100
1994 50 50 40 0 12 12 0 20 94.4 72 87.5 100
1996 50 50 40 0 0 4 0 20 93.3 60 83.3 100
1998 50 50 40 0 4 8 0 32 100 76 100 100
2000 50 50 40 0 8 16 0 44 91.3 92 100 86.7
2002 50 50 40 0 0 4 0 24 100 80 100 100
2004 50 50 44 0 4 4 0 28 94.7 76 90 100
2006 50 50 40 0 8 20 0 28 100 68 100 100
2008 50 50 40 0 4 8 0 20 100 64 100 100
2010 50 50 40 0 0 4 0 36 100 84 100 100
2012 50 50 52 0 8 12 0 40 100 72 100 100
2014 50 50 28 0 4 8 0 36 94.1 68 85.7 100

State House

State House competitiveness, Pennsylvania
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1968 203 100 53.2 0 12.8 21.2 0 2.5 91.9 84.7 96.3 88.8
1970 203 100 55.7 0 11.8 20.7 0 1 91.8 84.2 95.7 89.5
1972 203 100 47.3 0 9.9 17.7 0 5.4 92.4 83.7 88.2 97.4
1974 203 100 55.7 0 8.4 21.2 0 4.9 91.1 82.8 100 83.9
1976 203 100 58.6 0 6.9 12.8 0 10.8 93.8 79.3 95.5 91.7
1978 203 100 48.8 0 7.9 13.8 0 5.4 90.4 81.8 83 100
1980 203 100 49.3 0 5.9 13.8 0 16.7 97.4 75.4 98.6 96.3
1982 203 100 50.7 0 3.4 9.4 0 13.3 96.4 83.3 98.8 94.3
1984 203 100 50.7 0 3 7.4 0 18.2 99.4 88.2 98.9 100
1986 203 100 50.7 0 2.5 4.9 0 37.9 100 92.6 100 100
1988 203 100 51.2 0 3.4 5.9 0 35 98.3 87.2 98.9 97.7
1990 203 100 53.2 0 5.9 13.3 0 24.1 91.9 91.6 92.9 90.9
1992 203 100 51.7 0 5.4 10.3 0 13.3 97.1 83.7 96.8 97.4
1994 203 100 50.2 0 3.4 8.4 0 35 98.9 88.2 98.9 98.9
1996 203 100 49.3 0 3.9 5.9 0 30 98.9 93.1 100 97.9
1998 203 100 49.3 0 2.5 3.9 0 42.9 100 91.6 100 100
2000 203 100 48.8 0 2.5 5.4 0 47.3 98.9 92.1 97.9 100
2002 203 100 46.3 0 3 5.4 0 41.4 98.9 88.7 97.8 100
2004 203 100 45.8 0 1.5 3.4 0 51.2 98.9 92.1 98.9 99
2006 203 100 50.2 0 4.9 13.3 0 32.5 95.5 76.8 97.3 93.9
2008 203 100 51.2 0 6.4 9.9 0 50.7 97.2 89.2 96.7 97.8
2010 203 100 44.8 0 6.9 12.8 0 40.4 93.4 89.7 88.2 98.9
2012 203 100 45.3 0 3 7.9 0 48.8 99.4 84.2 100 99
2014 203 100 41.4 0 1.5 4.4 0 55.2 97.8 87.7 95.1 100

Up ballot

Up ballot competitiveness, Pennsylvania
Year U.S. House Seats % Not usable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Uncontested U.S. Senate 1 margin U.S. Senate 2 margin President margin Governor margin
1912 5.9
1916 14.9
1920 41.5
1924 54.8
1928 31.6
1932 5.7
1936 16.4
1938 7.4
1940 4.5 6.9
1942 8.6
1944 0.6 2.8
1946 33 0 15.2 30.3 0 19.6 18
1948 33 0 15.2 36.4 0 4.1
1950 33 0 21.2 33.3 0 3.6 2.4
1952 30 0 20 33.3 0 3.6 5.9
1954 30 0 23.3 30 0 7.5
1956 30 0 10 20 0 0.4 13.2
1958 30 0 6.7 16.7 0 2.8 1.9
1960 30 0 6.7 20 0 2.3
1962 27 0 7.4 14.8 0 2.4 11.1
1964 27 0 18.5 22.2 0 1.5 30.3
1966 27 0 11.1 11.1 0 6.1
1968 27 0 3.7 3.7 0 6.2 3.9
1970 27 0 0 0 3.7 6.2 13.9
1972 25 0 0 0 0 20.3
1974 25 0 8 16 4 7.2 8.7
1976 25 0 8 12 4 5.7 2.7
1978 25 0 8 20 0 6.2
1980 25 4 12.5 16.7 8 2.5 7.7
1982 23 0 13 21.7 4.3 20.4 2.8
1984 23 0 13 13 4.3 7.4
1986 23 0 0 4.3 21.7 13.7 2.8
1988 23 0 0 0 21.7 34.4 2.3
1990 23 0 4.3 4.3 26.1 35.3
1992 21 0 14.3 23.8 19 2.9 11.1
1994 21 0 14.3 23.8 19 2.6 6.4
1996 21 0 9.5 14.3 0 10.3
1998 21 0 4.8 14.3 19 27.6 29.8
2000 21 0 0 14.3 19 7.1 4.3
2002 19 0 15.8 15.8 31.6 9.2
2004 19 0 5.3 5.3 31.6 11.8 2.5
2006 19 0 15.8 21.1 10.5 17.4 20.7
2008 19 0 15.8 15.8 10.5 10.5
2010 19 0 10.5 21.1 5.3 2 9
2012 18 0 5.6 5.6 0 9.3 5.5
2014 18 0 0 0 16.7 9.9

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