Electoral competitiveness in South Carolina, 1912-2014

Competitiveness in state legislatures
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Published in April 2015

The 2014 national election continued the decline in U.S. electoral competitiveness that has occurred since 1972. The decline of electoral competitiveness that has been seen on the national stage, has also been seen in states. For example, South Carolina saw a large decrease in the percent of elections won by a small margin from 1968 to 2014.

This page contains electoral competitiveness information at various levels of government in this state up to 2014. For more recent information about state legislative competitiveness nationwide, click here.

The data presented below are part of a larger project on electoral competitiveness, the full report is available in the table to the right. The images below illustrate the changes in the competitiveness of elections in South Carolina from 1912 through 2014. The data used to generate these graphs is available in the tables below those images.

Background

Since 1972, electoral competitiveness has tended to decrease across the United States. During that time, people who are members of the same political party have become more likely to live in the same area as one another than in the past. Nationally, the rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness is declining. On the national level, the percentage of state legislative elections won by 5 percent or less was nearly the lowest in the 1972 to 2014 period. In an absolute sense, the incidence of such elections was very low. Only 4.9 percent of U.S. residents in districts with elections saw their election won by 5 percent or less. Similarly, more Americans lived in areas with uncontested elections than ever before in the time period studied: 36.7 percent. State legislative primaries were often found to be won by wide margins or not contested at all. The rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness in elections in South Carolina

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  [Ballot_StateGraph01_Marg_Stateno40SouthCarolina2015_04_23.png|Marginal Elections]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph02_Uncont_Stateno40SouthCarolina2015_04_23.png|Uncontested Elections]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph03_Inc_Stateno40SouthCarolina2015_04_23.png|Incumbent Win Rates]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph04_US_HS_Stateno40SouthCarolina2015_04_23.png|Competitiveness in U.S. House Seats]

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  [Ballot_StateGraph05_UpBallot_Stateno40SouthCarolina2015_04_23.png|Margin of Victory in Up Ballot Elections]

Table explanation

The columns in the tables below for both state senates and state houses are as follow:

• Seats: number of seats in the state legislative chamber.
• Percent Seats Up: percent of seats in the state legislative chamber that are up in a particular year for the November election.
• Percent Won By Dem: the percent of seats in the state legislature that were won by a Democrat.
• Percent Unusable: percent of seats for the state legislative chamber that weren’t usable to compute whether a race was marginal or not for this chamber in this year because of missing data. This column usually says “0.”
• Percent with 5% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 5% or less.
• Percent with 10% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 10% or less.
• Percent Unusable Other: percent of seats that have missing data that prevent the computation of whether an incumbent won or lost, whether an incumbent ran or not, or whether a race was uncontested. This column usually says “0.”
• Percent Uncontested: percent of races in a chamber that are uncontested.
• Percent Incumbent Win: percent of incumbents who ran for a state chamber in a particular year who won.
• Percent With Incumbent: number of incumbents running for reelection for a state-chamber in one year, divided by the number of seats that are up for election for that state-chamber, multiplied by 100.

The columns for the “Up ballot” tab are as follows:

• U.S. House Seats: number of U.S. House Seats that a state was apportioned in the year in question.
• Percent Not Usable: percent of U.S. House Seats in the state and year that aren’t usable to compute marginality or contestation, because of something unusual about the race.
• Percent With 5% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 5% or less.
• Percent With 10% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 10% or less.
• Percent Uncontested: percent of U.S. House races that were uncontested in the state and year.
• U.S. Senate 1 Margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
• U.S. Senate 2 Margin: This is only recorded when a second election to the U.S. Senate was held because of a Senator not completing their term. For such elections, this is the difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
• President margin: difference between the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the most votes in a state minus the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the second most votes in a state.
• Governor margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the gubernatorial election in a state with the gubernatorial candidate receiving the second most votes.

State Senate

State Senate competitiveness, South Carolina
Year	Seats	% Seats up	% Won by Dem	% Unusable	% With 5% margin	% With 10% margin	% Unusuable other	% Uncontested	% Incumbent win	% With incumbent	% of Dem inc winning	% of Repub inc winning
1968	46	100	93.5	0	6.5	17.4	0	65.2	85.7	76.1	100	28.6
1972	46	100	91.3	0	15.2	21.7	0	58.7	87.9	71.7	90.3	50
1976	46	100	93.5	0	2.2	8.7	0	60.9	93.9	71.7	100	50
1978	46	2.2	100	0	0	0	0	100		0
1980	46	100	89.1	0	6.5	10.9	2.2	66.7	93.5	68.9	93.5
1984	46	100	78.3	0	2.2	13	0	43.5	84.8	71.7	86.2	100
1988	46	100	76.1	0	8.7	13	0	56.5	100	73.9	100	100
1990	46	2.2	100	0	0	0	0	0		0
1992	46	100	69.6	0	8.7	13	0	56.5	92.9	60.9	95	87.5
1996	46	100	56.5	0	2.2	6.5	0	54.3	100	82.6	100	100
2000	46	100	50	0	2.2	6.5	0	52.2	97.4	84.8	95.7	100
2004	46	100	43.5	0	2.2	4.3	0	50	100	78.3	100	100
2008	46	100	41.3	0	2.2	6.5	0	60.9	100	76.1	100	100
2012	46	100	39.1	0	0	6.5	0	65.2	97.1	76.1	100	95
2014	46	2.2	100	0	0	0	0	100		0

State House

State House competitiveness, South Carolina
Year	Seats	% Seats up	% Won by Dem	% Unusable	% With 5% margin	% With 10% margin	% Unusuable other	% Uncontested	% Incumbent win	% With incumbent	% of Dem inc winning	% of Repub inc winning
1968	124	100	96	0	6.5	14.5	48.4	79.7	95.6	70.3	100	0
1970	124	100	91.1	0	7.3	13.7	0	33.9	97.7	71	97.6	100
1972	124	100	83.1	0	8.9	20.2	0	39.5	92.4	63.7	92.8	90
1974	124	100	86.3	0	7.3	11.3	2.4	47.1	92.1	62.8	96.8	71.4
1976	124	100	90.3	0	2.4	4	0	54.8	96.7	74.2	98.8	83.3
1978	124	100	87.1	0	4.8	7.3	0	69.4	96.9	78.2	97.7	90.9
1980	124	100	86.3	0	1.6	5.6	0	73.4	98.9	74.2	100	92.9
1982	124	100	83.9	0	2.4	8.1	0	63.7	96	80.6	97.6	87.5
1984	124	100	78.2	0	3.2	8.9	0	69.4	98.9	75	98.7	100
1986	124	100	74.2	0.8	2.4	5.7	0	71	97.1	83.1	97.5	95.8
1988	124	100	70.2	0.8	5.7	11.4	0	64.5	96	81.5	96.1	96
1990	124	100	65.3	1.6	2.5	5.7	0	60.5	97.1	83.1	98.6	93.9
1992	124	100	58.9	0	2.4	11.3	0	61.3	97.5	65.3	96	100
1994	124	100	49.2	0	3.2	7.3	0	63.7	93.5	87.1	90	100
1996	124	100	42.7	0	3.2	7.3	0	56.5	97.8	75	97.6	98
1998	124	100	45.2	0	5.6	8.1	0	71.8	96.5	92.7	100	94.1
2000	124	100	43.5	0	2.4	8.1	0	65.3	96.1	83.1	91.7	100
2002	124	100	41.1	0	0.8	4.8	0	70.2	98.1	84.7	100	96.5
2004	124	100	40.3	0	0.8	4	0	75.8	99.1	90.3	100	98.5
2006	124	100	41.1	0	3.2	4.8	0	74.2	99	83.1	100	98.4
2008	124	100	42.7	0	0.8	7.3	0	71	99	80.6	100	98.1
2010	124	100	38.7	0	1.6	4	0	69.4	97.1	83.9	93.8	100
2012	124	100	36.3	0	3.2	5.6	0	75	99	83.1	100	98.4
2014	124	100	37.1	0	0.8	2.4	0	75.8	100	83.9	100	100

Up ballot

Up ballot competitiveness, South Carolina
Year	U.S. House Seats	% Not usable	% With 5% margin	% With 10% margin	% Uncontested	U.S. Senate 1 margin	U.S. Senate 2 margin	President margin	Governor margin
1912								94.8
1916								95.1
1920								92.2
1924								95.5
1928								82.9
1932								96.2
1936								97.1
1938									100
1940								91.3
1942						100			100
1944						100		83.5
1946	6	0	0	0	100				100
1948	6	0	0	0	66.7	100		49.8
1950	6	0	0	0	100	100			100
1952	6	0	0	0	66.7			1.4
1954	6	0	0	0	100	100			100
1956	6	0	0	0	66.7	64.5	100	21.3
1958	6	0	0	0	100				100
1960	6	0	0	0	100	100		2.5
1962	6	0	0	16.7	66.7	14.3			100
1964	6	0	0	0	66.7			17.8
1966	6	0	0	0	50	2.7	24.4		16.3
1968	6	0	0	0	16.7	23.8		8.2
1970	6	0	0	16.7	33.3				6.1
1972	6	0	0	33.3	16.7	27		43.7
1974	6	0	16.7	16.7	0	41.7			3.3
1976	6	0	16.7	16.7	16.7			13.1
1978	6	0	0	16.7	33.3	11.2			23.8
1980	6	0	33.3	33.3	33.3	40.7		1.3
1982	6	0	16.7	33.3	16.7				39.6
1984	6	0	0	0	16.7	35.5		28.2
1986	6	0	33.3	50	16.7	27.8			3.1
1988	6	0	16.7	50	0			24.1
1990	6	0	0	0	50	32.8			42.8
1992	6	0	16.7	16.7	16.7	3.2		9.3
1994	6	0	16.7	16.7	16.7				2.6
1996	6	0	0	16.7	33.3	9.6		6.2
1998	6	0	0	0	33.3	7.1			8.2
2000	6	0	0	0	16.7			16.3
2002	6	0	0	0	50	10.4			5.8
2004	6	0	0	0	33.3	9.8		17.3
2006	6	0	0	0	0				10.3
2008	6	0	16.7	33.3	0	15.3		9.1
2010	6	0	0	16.7	0	38			4.5
2012	7	0	0	0	28.6			10.6
2014	7	0	0	0	28.6	24.5	16.6		14.9

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